College Football Live - CFB Live - 10/2 - Friendly Wagers

Episode Date: October 2, 2025

Join our crew Zubin Mehenti, Sam Acho and EJ Manuel live in studio for College Football Live. The guys look back at Vanderbilt's upset on Alabama last season and what to expect from this weekends matchup. Tape breakdown leading into the Florida showdown between Miami and Florida State. Arch Manning looking to have his second road test against Florida and Joe Fortenbaugh shares from friendly wagers you might want to bet your luck on. All that and more on CFB Live! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome inside the theater. The trailer is over. It's time for the movie. Welcome to College Football Live, E.J. Manuel, Sam, A.J., Manchu, Subin Mahent, part of the reason college football is so great. By early Saturday evening, Kail and DeBore could be 2-0 against Georgia and 0-2 against Vanderbilt. Think that's impossible, but it's possible, and it was all set up by what happened last season. Mark Lee and his Commodore is looking to make some history.

They haven't knocked off Bama since 1984. Bad and out. He's a score lead. Here's Milro. Perfect through the air on this drive. And now on the ground, he's in. Bobby wants to throw. He goes there next to him.

A little replay. Pavia throw! You said it, Tom Hart. What a moment. E.J, I want to start with you. Tongue planted firmly in cheek. Alabama can't stop Pavia. The NCAA can't stop Pavia.

The court system. can't stop Pobby. Who can stop Diego Pobby? How do you stop this guy? What makes him so special? But I'm still trying to search who's going to stop him. Maybe Sam can stop him. But here's the thing.

When you look at Diego Pavia, guys, he's extremely efficient with throwing the football. But the other part, his playmaking ability is where he is super scary for this Alabama defense. And I think this is going to be the part in this game. You saw it last year where Vanderbilt was able to come out with that huge victory. But it's in the third and 10 situation. Guys like Sam, guys like Dylan Stewart here for South Carolina. They love this opportunity because now they get a chance to get a free sack.

They do a twist up front. that South Carolina's defense, but the three technique there doesn't set the edge. What does that create an opportunity now for Diego Pavia to get out of the pocket? And this is where he becomes freaky. He's going to work back across his body to Trey Richardson, who does a great job of giving him his chest. It's a two-yard throw that ends up being a 12-yard gain. Move those chains first down Vanderbilt. Pre-snap decision, I love this.

All right, so you got a centerfield safety right here. And I'm also noticing press here by the corner. That tells me it's probably man coverage. If that safety goes over the top, I'm not throwing it. But he doesn't right here. I'm going to big alert this go route. I'm going to hold this safety with my eyes. And Pavia is going to lay out a dime right here to Trey Richardson.

Let me run this back just so you. I can see the ball placement of this. Yes, it's a great catch. I give love to the receiver. But look at the placement by Pavia. So the fact that he can use his legs, the fact that he can break out the pocket and still hit receivers down the field. And the other part that he can digest it pre-snap and then execute on the post-snap.

That's where he's playing elite football. And he is. And that's the reason why this team is top 20 in time of possession. Last year in this game versus Alabama, Vanderbill held the ball for 42 minutes and eight seconds. So if Alabama wants to answer, they have to get off of the field and get off the field quickly. I think that starts with penetration up front. The defensive line has to be better for Alabama.

They have to create negative plays and force Pavia in the situations where he cannot be as elite of a playmaker. The Alabama defense has struggled this year versus stop the run, but they've been playing a little bit better over the last several weeks. And so if you can get it to a position where you're in instead of second and eight and second and six, second in 16 or third and 17 because of negative plays, you create more opportunities for your offense. or really for your defense to create negative plays. Okay, I understand Vanderbilt is way better than before. The client for Clark Lee has gotten his flowers this week. He deserves everything. But this is still Alabama and this is still Vanderbilt.

So I want you to fill in the blank and you jump in here too. Simply put, if Alabama loses for the second time in two years to Vanderbilt, dot, dot, dot. This solidifies who Vanderbilt is in the SEC. I don't think this is really an indictment on Alabama. This is a top 25 team that Alabama is about to play at their house. Now, Alabama's playing great football, like you said, Zubim. But I don't think we can look at Vandy as the old Vandy's old basketball school, the old baseball school, for that matter. This is a real football team.

And Clark Lee has his team believing. And also, Diego Pavia just talked about his quarterback. He has these guys believing that they can go out there and win because they did it last season. Yeah, Zubber. You said Alabama still Vanderbilt. If Vanderbilt wins, Vanderbilt is not Vanderbilt anymore. It's a Vanderbilt of old. This is a different error.

You think about it. They got a chance to start last season with a dominant win over Virginia Tech. And they went on to win, beat Alabama. This year, they beat Virginia Tech again. they've been dominant at least the last several years since Clark Lee's kind of changed the structure and how he's been able to run that program. So for me, it's more of a positive advancement of the Vanderbilt football program. Okay, so if you're an Alabama fan and things don't go your way Saturday, I know these guys probably didn't convince you. But maybe there's another way to look at a possible L.

Not exactly a rivalry between Alabama and Vanderbilt. Miami and Florida State, of course, is a huge rivalry, and it'll be resumed on Saturday night. The fellows are going to weigh in on that in just a second. And let's run through kind of some of the storylines you need to know. First time since 2016, these teams are meeting when both are ranked in the Associated Press poll, 27th time overall in series history. But this was supposed to be a top 10 duel. It didn't exactly turn out to be that after the Seminole's lost.

But they are averaging 53 a game most in the FBS. They've done it against some good competition. They've done it against some not so good competition. While Miami looking to beat an Associated Press ranked opponent away for the home for the first time since 2021. They've lost their last four games on the road to ranked opponents. Let's take a look at the playoff implications here. A loss for Florida State would essentially be a death blow. Miami could probably survive one, but they wouldn't be feeling great about it,

but they'd certainly be feeling better than Florida State. Carson Beck knows what he's up against. He talked about it with our Taylor Tannenbaum and Eric McLean earlier this week. They're very multiple in what they do, and they fly around, right? They swarm the ball. They swarmed the ball. They play good. a defense. They're not going to give you shots, to be honest. They're going to pressure you.

They're going to challenge you really good on third down. You go watch that Alabama game, and, I mean, they were physical. They're physical at the point of attack. In those rainy games, it kind of shows, you know, how physical is your team, right? And they show that they were going to be physical. And again, that's our brand of football as well. Let's talk about one edge where Miami really might have the edge and that's running the ball, because on Friday night, when you and I were in the studio and millions of people were watching Virginia run for 211 yards on Florida State. tick me and tied out Miami's run game might be able to do what the who's did.

Well, look, this is a Miami offense that also averages 189 yards per game as well. So you know they can run the football. And their head coach is a former offense line. Offensive line coach, he going to want to run the rock. And these are just two plays that you're going to see Florida State struggle a little bit with the pin and pull. And we're going to get Sam here to hit the play button. And this first one again, from last week against University of Virginia, 200 plus yards like Zoom just said. You're going to get Dakota Twitty and also Jack Whitman.

They're going to do a great job of pinning and then also pull. Let's pause it right here, Sam. So the thing that I love that UVA did that Florida State has to prepare for against Miami is look at the hat placement of these guys. They're all on the right shoulder here where they got to let that running back run this way. Okay. Now, that also gives an opportunity for the safety to come over the top, but also look, again, the relationship. Everybody's on the correct shoulder here, and that makes it hard for the defense. Correct.

And what makes it even harder for the defense is this, is that Virginia does not run this type of pin and pull type of play. They're really an outside zone play. So this is the only time Virginia ran this play in the game. And so you think about it, this play should really go for a lot bigger. The running back, why is he looking on the inside? He actually makes a mistake. You're going to see it. The running back should be because of this going outside, but he doesn't.

The defense actually allows a play to be really not as big as it should have been. But because of this cut back, it ends up being a five-yard game, which a defense, that's okay. You say that's not that bad. Right, exactly. And now this next play, though, this is where they do a really good job of. And this one makes Miami scary, Sam. So you're going to get Annette's Cooper, Matthew McCoy, and then you get the lead backer right here,

who's going to also do the same thing. pin and pool and they're going to gain leverage. Now, Sam, I also want you to go back and show us why or maybe what Florida could have did here to fix this so they don't get this big run here on offense. Correct. Well, you saw a five-yard gain. And this play is really, it's done from the beginning. What needs to happen is you need to get a big gone call.

Essentially because you see these puller, puller, and you've got this lead blocker. What needs to happen is the lineback has to say, hey, gong, gong, get into like a five technique, get into a one technique instead of head up. And I'm going to mooch that a little bit too so that I have better leverage on some of these blocks. otherwise you're going to be out leverage and it's going to be bad news for the defense. Absolutely. And again, Miami, this is exactly what they do. This is how they run the football. And again, I want you to see the strain, not just from these three blockers, but also look at the receivers down here. They're doing a great job of finding their blocks, all right? Everybody talks about catching touchdowns.

Not in this Miami offense, man. This ends up being a 15-yard gain here from Mark Fletcher where he doesn't get touched until 12 yards down the field. But again, this is a lot because all these offensive players are doing a great job straining the block. And to your point, that Florida State game versus Virginia, we saw. We saw a five-yard gain. In this game, Miami runs that pin and pull play. We saw a 15-yard gain. If Florida State didn't get it figured out quickly, that may turn it to a 25- or 35-yard gain.

How did you feel like giving the swim move there to E.J. To get inside, it's going to be sacking him. I don't run away from him, though. That's why I'm 5-11 and standing over here. Now, on the other side, we heard from Carson Beck. We know with Tommy Costellanos. He gave a little bit of a grammar lesson to R. Kelly Gramlick and Eric McLean about field rushes with a plural.

Put an S on it. It's exciting. This is why I came here to playing games like this, you know, and playing matchups like this. But, you know, I've never been a part of two field rushes in one season. So, yeah. Yeah, there's already. I mean, because Florida Snake rushed the field and then the Virginia field rush.

I, okay, I'm fascinated. I'm talking about good side of it. Yeah, the good side. I got you. I got you. Good stuff. Let's not bury the lead. You're on the ACC Network, the MacLet.

for a long time. Did he not play for the Clemson Tide? He did. Why was he wearing a Florida state shirt? Zoom, I texted Emac like 10 minutes ago when I saw that. And I said, man, you look good and gone on the goal, bro. You look good with that. And he had a Miami shirt on when he was interviewing Carson Vex, something a little orange.

Well, you mentioned Beck. We just saw Costalanos. Both of these guys have come up big and big spots this year. But if it comes down to a last possession game and the latest, greatest ranked matchup between them, who do you have more confidence in which QB? Guys, I have more confidence in Tommy Castellanos, but here's why. Now, Carson Beck's playing in the first. in football, but Casalanos being in that adverse situation on the road last week.

And he brought the team back. Zuban, you and I were watching the game. You had to keep me calm because of some of the heroic throws and plays that this guy was making. And so for me, I think that's something that kind of gives you that grit going into this game. It's going to be a tough game. I played in this game many times when I was in college. So you've got to bring you a game. But I just trust a little bit more on Casalanos because of the adversity has always been.

He's already been through this season. But if you're talking about adversity, if anyone's been an adversity, it's been Carson Beck, not just this season, but the last several years. Remember last year in Georgia, got the injury in the SEC championship game. All of a sudden, he thinks going to go to the draft. Then he transfers to Miami. There's been so much adversity. The question marks, will it be healthy enough?

Will they be able to win? And so I have a lot of confidence in Carson Beck for that reason. The adversity that he faced not just this season, but over the last several years. Well, you mentioned the word adversity. I don't know anybody that's faced more adversity early this season than Arch Manning. When college football live continues. I mean, Florida is just one in three. Texas is barely a touchdown favorite.

Why is that? Why does Vegas think that? This guy will help us answer it next. That's a very dramatic setup there. I've got everyone's attention. Kirby Smart has owned Josh Hypo in Tennessee. They're betting this game like they already know the outcome. ACC, we've seen these things get mucked up before.

Club Nick and Clemson, that's just a mess. This is the focus. The focus is the must. I stole it from him, and now I'm projecting it to you. So if it doesn't work out, you blame him, not me. College Football Live is presented by Ice Cold Dr. Pepper. College football. It's a pepper thing.

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Welcome back to College Football Live, presented by Dr. Pepper. And let's take a look at this week's college football rankings brought to you by Capital One. Ohio State stays at number one after what people thought. thought would be a scare at Washington, but they dominated. Oregon takes over the number two spot after that great win at Penn State, Ole Miss and Alabama jumping into the top 10. You see Texas there laying at 9? They've got a big one off the by week.

In fact, both of these teams are off the by. Texas at Florida, Gators are one and three for the first time since 1986, but their defense is keeping them in a ton of games. The question now is with the Texas offense having turned a new leaf, thanks to Arch making plays like that, is it possible that this will be? a little bit of a coming out party for Arch. I want to start there with you. We've been a lot of new like, new Coke.

There's been a lot of new things over the year. You are seeing a new arch, and that could not come at a better time. Absolutely. Arch look great versus Sam Houston. Why are we talking about Texas versus Sam Houston? But he struggled in weeks before. There's not necessarily a coming out party last week, but the archman that you expected for what we saw last season.

Now here's the question. Now he's going to get his first true test as the new Archmanning, the confident archman. That's standing over people. This Florida defense. is significantly better than they were last year, one of the top 25 or so defenses in all of college football. So this is the exciting part about this game.

Arch Manning didn't play great against Ohio State, but now this new version is going to get tested versus Florida. Well, he's definitely going to get tested because Florida, in my opinion, is in must-win territory. There's no way you can start this season one and four. Then you're about going to this gauntlet within the SEC. And look, I played against the Florida Gators every single year when I was in college. That is a proud fan base.

Those players are still proud, even though they've taken some L's right now. So my big key, can you generate some type of pride? pressure against Archmanning. Can you get him off his spot like Ohio State did? It would speed up his playing clock, speed up his feet, which causes some of those inaccuracies. Right now, only three total sacks on the defense for Florida. Not good enough. I like what you guys are talking about from a defensive perspective. I think from a betting perspective, you lean into the defense and you play the first half under. Very specific bet. 20 and a half. So we needed to stay under 20 points, 20 or fewer, in the first 30 minutes of action. Two key reasons. Texas's defense

has been fantastic this year. Number one in a pony yards per play. They're giving up just four points per game in the first half. Now, granted, it's been mild competition, but they did play Ohio State. Florida on the other side giving up just 10 points per game in the first half. That came against Miami, LSU, South Florida. Win-Gus in this game could be the key. You would know as well as anybody. Win can affect the passing game first half under 20 and a half points.

All right, so we'll keep an eye on that one and a big one between a pair of SEC teams. I want to mention one game in the Big 12 that's garnering a ton of attention this week. and that's our Dr. Pepper Championship Drive. Game of the week, Texas Tech, who's just been an absolute juggernaut this season in a year they said they were going to control taking on Houston, who's on an incredible bounce back here, and as your screen indicates,

Joe might take the under here because these is a battle. Careful, Zuban. I don't want to speak for Joe, but it's a battle of two of the best defenses in the country. We got a huge week six on tap. Can't wait to see all these games, all in your local ABC station. We'll see if Georgia can bounce back.

Incredibly. saying can Alabama bounce back against Vandy? And then, of course, the game we discussed Miami and Florida State. On the way, if you like what you just saw from Joe, don't worry. The fellas are coming back to pick all the rest of the big games in week six with the number in mind. We'll have that for you next. This Giving Tuesday, Cam H is counting on your support. Together, we can forge a better path for mental health by creating a future where Canadians can get the help they need when they need it,

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Get insurance that's really big on care. Find an agent today at dejerdin.com slash business coverage. College Football Live is presented by Ice Cold Dr. Pepper. College football. It's a pepper thing. Live from T-Town this week. You know, it may be week six of the season, but it is the season opener for Friendly Wagers with Joe. We're going right to conference season as we are ready to roll.

Take it away, my friend. So we call it Friendly Wages with Joe. Quietly, I call it free consultation. Because basically my job here is just to walk around campus, getting smart people like you too, Zubin yourself, download your information and then apply it to my bet. So we're going to begin with Vanderbilt and Alabama. Your boy, looking at the dog here. A couple key reasons we like getting 10 and a half points.

The spot for Alabama. Huge win at Georgia. Now you come home. You got to turn around and get ready for a team that's licking their lips to take a shot at you. Since Vanderbilt had Diego Pavia take over at quarterback, 13 and 5 against the spread. I'm going, Vandy. What's say you? Well, the difference is I like everything you're saying.

The one difference is this. Alabama and Ty Simpson, they're playing like a new leaf is turned over, right? They're a new confident team. And so though Vanderbilt does dominate in time of position, possession, excuse me, I think Alabama, I'm leaning towards Alabama in this because that made senior screen 15 tosses from the quarterbacks who's playing out of his mind. How about this?

We just move this all the way. Just kidding. Don't worry, Joe. I got you, man. So I'm going to go with you, Joe. I'm going to go and Vandy here. I think they're going to cover one. I think that's a big number 10 and a half points.

I think one, Vandy's going to be extremely competitive in this football game. And I believe in that guy right there, Diego Pavia, QB won for the Commodores. He's going to keep him in the game or they might win it again. I'm going to need the bestie on the next one. Okay, let's see if we can bring you around. Boom.

Florida State, Miami. I know where he's going. I know what I think we all know what's going to be happening here. I am going to be doing the exact same thing. We're going with Florida State. Again, spot situation. Buy low on Florida State. The last we saw of the Seminoles,

they're getting beat on a Friday night in Virginia. Everyone's checked out on him. First true road game for Miami. Crowd noise is going to help that Florida State defense. Seminole O line combined with their rushing attack. Keeps it close. Don't be surprised they win the game outright. Yeah, look, I'm going right there, Joe.

I'm certainly going Florida State. I think they certainly covered that three to have. to have. But I feel really confident about what they're bringing back defensemen. They didn't know there's some holes there that they let the run game for UVA go really well last week. That's something they got to fix against Miami. They cover it and they do with the win. Did you see the breakdown for me and EJ? I'm going Miami. Right the breakdown. Right. Miami does a more of a salmon, right? But Miami does an unbelievable job of running the ball. Florida State. They struggle. They're not horrible, but they're just a little bit leaky. And I think that leakage

might be exposed versus a hurricane. Also, I love it. I love how Joe put his name right there in front of Tommy Castle. I love that. I tend to do that sort of thing, and then I think I'm funny, and then I realize, man, yeah, that's exactly. I need you in this game. I need you. I need them too.

Fair enough. Now, one team the guys didn't pick this week for obvious reasons is Stanford. They are off, and that's a good thing, because the program and all of college football probably needs a week to digest the return of Captain Luck writing to Dear Mother. Dearest Mother. The young men whom I proudly steward have eagerly embarked on this campaign. We are brimming with excitement.

My hand trembles in fervor, as I write to tell you that, while in preparation for upcoming battles, we have unearthed a most surprising bounty of relics. 20,000, by more precise count, each bearing an oddly striking, yet parodic resemblance to your own son. How curious! My unit is set to distribute each relic in gratitude to our supporters who rally to our cause against Notre Dame's Shamrock Battalion on a late November's Eve. Joy will abound.

A chorus of raucous cheers will be heard across the land and a great many heads will bobble, exhilarating. Thank you for the robust care parcel of squirrel oil and pickled weasel tail. Stupendous. Tell the cows, hogs, and sheep, hello for me. With love, Andrew.

So in English, if you go to the Stanford, Notre Dame football game, you get the Andrew Luck, General bobblehead, fellas. What do you think? I love it. One of the all-time great Twitter accounts. It's great that this is back in our lives.

Yeah, and they're getting the free bobbler. I need to show up to that game. Let me get a bobblehead. Honestly, at first I didn't know if that was actually Andrew that was putting those tweets out there, so that confirms it for me. Pretty good. Well written, too.

Yeah. Now, first 20,000 will get that. And a lot of people have talked about. Stanford has had four straight nine loss season. So anything, right, to get the excitement going again for what it used to be under Harbaugh, under Shaw, and maybe it can be reincarnation. carnated under luck, who of course played for both, Harbaugh and Shaw. Notre Dame Stanford.

First 20,000, get your tickets down. See you next.