College Football Live - CFB Live- 8/21- Best Bets

Episode Date: August 21, 2025

Join our crew Zubin Mehenti, Sam Acho, EJ Manuel and special guests Joe Fortenbaugh and Pete Thamel as they discuss College Footballs best bets, and biggest toss ups, two days out from Week 0. Will Iowa State bring home their third straight win vs Kansas State in Dublin? Who will win out in Week 1... #1 Texas or defending champ Ohio State? Will Alabama make a playoff run? Joe Fortenbaugh talks numbers while Pete Thamel weighs in on the Pat Fitzgerald and Northwestern settlement. All this and more on College Football Live! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It's almost back. And with that, we welcome you inside college football live with ESPN sports betting analyst Joe Fortinbaugh, EJ Manuel, Sam Hacho. I'm Zubin Mahentie. We'll come calling on their analysis here in a second. But first, Dublin is calling. We're getting ready for week zero between Iowa State and Kansas State, one of the longest running rivalries, continuous rivalries in college football. Both teams making their way to a V-V-V-V-V-V-Sate. stadium for the Air Lingus Classic. I know some Iowa State fans actually got there Monday to try to take in the week for this once in a lifetime opportunity when the two teams kick off at noon Eastern on Saturday. Let's take a look at some of the storylines heading into this game.

This has been a little bit of a recent domination by Iowa State. Remember this game in 2023, an amazing snow game that was won by Iowa State. We'll see if they can win their third straight against the guys from Manhattan. Avery Johnson has come in with a ton of hype, a ton of stars next to his name. but there's been some inconsistency, and we'll talk more about the quarterback matchup in this game here in just a second. The question of who Rocco Beck is throwing to

is a little bit different because his top two guys are now wearing a different uniform, the same uniform, but they're in the AFC South now instead of the Big 12. So it'll be a really interesting matchup in week zero. EJ, I want to start with you. You're our resident quarterback here. Avery is getting all the pub,

but you think the other quarterback is the guy we're sleeping out a little bit here. Why? The Zubin, the big reason is the consistency that you notice from Rocco Beck when you turn on his tape. Now, he's not going to wow you with the height, weight, measurables. He's not 645 pounds. But he's a guy who's 6'1, he's 220, maybe, 215 pounds. He's tough as hell. And for me, when I watch quarterbacks, who makes the right decision?

Who's going to get the offense set up in the right spot? Who's going to be able to ad-lib when it calls for it? He's sneaky athletic, too. So again, I think when you watch a lot of these quarterbacks, everybody wants to look at the guy who can run around and make the play with their legs. Barack O'Bek is somebody who I would be confident to know he's going to make the right decision. He's going to go with the right spot with the football. And ultimately, he's going to give you a chance to win at the end of the day.

And I'll add this too. You bring in two new receivers from the transfer portal, Chris Sowell and Xavier Townsend, two guys who actually match the former receivers that are now in the NFL as far as height, weight, and size. So well, about 6'4, and then Xavier Townsend's about 511. So to kind of match Higgins and Noel. And I think, again, this is the offense that's going to really take off here in 2025 because of the leadership for Rocco Beck. Yeah, on the Kansas State side, Kansas State side, I look more at two positions, defensive line and also safety. Rocco Beck, 25 passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown.

So he's a dual-threat quarterback. But if you have two new receivers, you may be leaning more on the run. And so I'm focusing on defensive tackle Damien Ilario, 6-3-300. He's a nose tackle. He does a great job of stuffing up the middle so that teams can't run the ball. But if you do stop the run defensively, Kansas State needs a little bit more help on the safety side of the ball. Think about it. They just added Gunner Maldonado, who's a transfer from Arizona.

He was injured last year, but in the time that he played, he was dominant on the football field. So if you can stop the run with those three down linemen up front and then have that new transfer safety, Maldonado, it can slow down what Raccobeck does and his efficiency as a quarterback. A lot of great points. When you're looking to handicap this game, key number of three, Kansas State's your favorite. That's what I do. I'd lay the points here. I don't like the matchup for Iowa State. I think you got a lot laid out that was very smart from E.J. Manuel about the loss of the top two wide receivers.

Not just top two wide receivers, 2,000-yard receivers who are now in the NFL, but we didn't mention the loss of the team's top two offensive linemen. If Iowa State tries to run the ball in this game, they're going to run right into the strength of the Kansas State defense, which is stopping the run. The other way around, Chris Climman, the head coach at Kansas State, 5-0 straight up, 4-1 against the spread in week one games. since he showed up at Kansas State. Now, that excludes COVID week one because that game's a bit of an outlier for everybody that was involved. But if climbing can get off to a hot start here,

if that Kansas State run defense can do what we expect them to do against Iowa State's offensive line, and if Rocco Beck struggles to throw the football here without his top two wide receivers, which keep in mind, 12 of 35 in this game last year, 12 of 35, I like Kansas State to cover the number. So, Joe, I just wanted to add,

my only pause to Kansas State is when you watch Avery Johnson, again, he's super athletic, And I think that's why everybody was excited to have him as a starter. Again, Will Howard had to more or less lead to go to Ohio State and he won a championship. But at times where he sees blitzes or when there's four off a specific edge, it almost seems like it surprises him. And then he ends up throwing the ball in the dirt. He's not really prepared at least last season for some of the pressures that Iowa State may bring toward him. So that's my only push right there.

Potentially, I would think maybe Iowa State plus the points. But again, I'm not a betting expert. So I'll stay in my lane, Joe. No, fair points and great points. It's one thing I would look for when it comes to Johnson, his ability to make plays with his legs. When they throw up his rushing prop for this game, expect him to run early and often against that defense for exactly the reasons EJ just laid out. Yeah, he is a true dual threat guy, no doubt about it, but maybe hasn't met the expectations, the heavy expectations that have been put upon him. Speaking of a team with heavy expectations, each of the last two years, the only double-digit win teams in the SEC, believe it or not, are Georgia, Ole Miss and Missouri.

But they've got a quarterback issue. Bo Perbuella came over from Penn State and a rather controversial transfer during the playoffs. Sam Horn was drafted in the fourth round by the Dodgers. So he's waiting to see a little bit where his future might lie, whether it's under center or maybe in the outfield. Sam, let's begin with you. Normally on a week where we've seen so many teams pick their starters,

it's a little bit of an outlier that Missouri hasn't done so. But you're kind of saying maybe it's not the worst thing in the world to still be in a deadlock at this moment. Yeah, not even close, especially when you have an athletic dual threat quarterback like Beau Pribula. In practice, oftentimes, you're not allowed to touch the quarterback. And so things that you might think might be a sack or maybe a 60-yard run, you have no idea what it is. But an actual game where there's a true opponent that has ill intent, you'll be able to see if Bo Pribula is providing you that second level of offense on a broken play that he did back in Penn State. Or if it's going to be Sam Warren, who's been the incumbent, been there for three years.

He was injured last season, who's going to be able to push the ball down the field. So I actually love the fact that there's a competition right now. As long as that competition doesn't go three, four games into the season, like we saw with Ohio State a few years back. I think early competition is good in this scenario. Well, look, Coach Drinkwood is using this as a preseason game, guys. And in college, we don't have a preseason. We don't have that luxury.

But the luxury from Missouri is they play Central Arkansas. So it's not like they have a huge non-conference game in week one, or they play an SEC opponent coming out. And you want to see these players perform under pressure. You want to see them have it. interception and how do they respond the next drive? You want to see them come off the sideline and how do they communicate with offensive coordinator.

How do they communicate with their offensive line? All those small things that really matter when the rubber starts to meet the road throughout the season. So in fact, I think this is a great thing that Coach Drinkwood's doing. It's really giving these guys the opportunity to prove it in a game, not in a scrimmage, not in a seven-on-seven where things are sometimes, you know, there's base coverages. Anybody can do that. I can go out there and bang a slant right now, boys.

But the key here, you get them in a game, let them get ruffled up a little bit. Who's going to respond the best and ultimately lean this. team. Yeah, they play Central Arkansas week one, but they got Kansas in week two and Jaylon Daniels coming back for not being year 70 or eight. I'm not sure what year it is for him, but Jaylon Daniels is going to be coming with a vengeance. He was injured last

year that Kansas quarterback who led his team a couple years ago to a six-no season before injury. So you better get this figured out by game two. I understand preseason August 28th, I get it. But by week two versus Kansas is going to be a huge litmus test for this Missouri

Tigers football team. We talk about the 10 wins. so you're excited about that. But look at some of their losses last year. I think it was it A&M they lost. Was it 45 to 10? Alabama 31 to zero, something to that effect. Those two losses, they were lost 75 to 10 was the overall score. So yes, some of the easier games you're not worried about with Missouri.

But when they face Alabama and A&M again, you might have some question marks if you don't have things figured out. That's a fair point. And last thing I would mention is that Pribula was the key element to their big win over Wisconsin last year, which they really needed to have. And speaking of the Big Ten, we have another Big Ten school in the spotlight. Today, this is a pretty serious story. You know, a couple years ago, Northwestern Legend, former player assistant coach and head coach Pat Fitzgerald

was embroiled in a hazing allegation lawsuit against his alma mater. It's really been going on for the last two years. And it looks like today we've got some resolution on the issue. And for more on that, we welcome in college. football's best insider Pete Dammle. All right, Pete, so bottom line, what is the adjudication now that it looks like everything has been resolved? Well, Zubin, in a legal case like this, there's what we know, and then there's some reading between the lines that's going to have to happen. What we know is Pat Fitzgerald and Northwestern have settled his $130 million lawsuit,

which was based around wrongful termination. How much should Fitzgerald's get? We're not sure, but considering the tone of his statement and the conciliatory tone of Northwestern, statement, this seems to have favored Fitzgerald. 68 million of that 130 was for loss of contractual money. So there's a number at least that we can point to to say that's what Fitzgerald was aiming to reclaim in this suit. Fitzgerald said publicly was very satisfied with the result. And maybe most important for his future, Zubin, Northwestern said very directly in the statement,

they did not find any knowledge in the depositions of any player who reported Hazing to or that he condoned or directed hazing. So they have essentially washed him of any of the sins that arose when those hazing allegations arrived about two years ago. And that is going to be key because if he does get another job, that introductory press conference is obviously going to have a lot to do with what happened. And the school is kind of laying some of the blame off of him. That said, what is the appetite to hire a guy that Pete that I recall before this

controversy was seen as one of the best coaches in America, did more with less than practically anyone. Yeah, well, Pat Fitzgerald was very blunt about his intentions. He wants to get back into coaching. His agent, Brian Harlan of Excel Sports, told me today that Fitzgerald is eager to get back to the sidelines. He spent the last two years as a volunteer high school coach for his son's high school outside of Chicago.

And the industry outlook on this, Zubin, is that Pat Fitzgerald will be a prime candidate for openings this fall. And remember, the cycle moves. faster now with the portal. We've seen the trend of schools moving on coaches earlier in the cycle so they can get in and build their roster in this portal era. Pat Fitzgerald this summer traveled around and met with different search firms, I think, in anticipation of this lawsuit getting settled. So he's already laid some groundwork and there's industry interest in Pat Fitzgerald. He certainly brings a gravitas in the industry from his 17 years on the sideline and all the

success that he's had. Yep. He's 50 years old, spent his entire adult life. as a player assistant coach and coach in Northwestern. Next stop, according to Pete, is going to be somewhere else. And apparently, according to Pete, there will be a next stop. On the way here on College Football Live. Next stop for Arch, Columbus. For the playoff rematch, they're squarely thinking about the Buckeyes. Arch will tell us that himself on the way.

And if you care about any numbers other than the final score, Joe is here for your best bets, which he will unveil when college football live continues. When you're flying Emirates business class, sampling our range of vintage wines. From the largest selection in the skies, you'll see that your vacation isn't really over until your flight is over.

Fly Emirates, fly better. Coach Corset, not the only guy that will be in Columbus. Saturday, August 30th. Arch Manning will be as well. He's prepped and ready. We're full on Ohio State now, so I'm thinking about them a lot. But they're a really good team.

Caleb Down, Sunny Stiles. They got some good players. So we're going to have our hands full, but it's going to be a fun one. You could just hear a little Peyton and Eli in there. You can still hear it. E.J, I want to start with you. You think Texas, for a variety of reasons, might go wire to wire here. Why do you say that?

Well, there's two things when you think about championship pedigree football teams. Can you run the football? Can you stop the run? And for Texas, they really have three to four running backs that all could be day one starters. But Q. Wisner will probably take the lead, even though a couple guys like Baxter and Blue got hurt. But I think also when you look at the front seven for Texas, I mean, you talk about Anthony Hill Jr. and Colin Simmons and some of the interior defensive linemen that they have. And that's going to be the best part about Texas's team on top of having a young Arch Manning. So look, I'm not saying that Arch is going to be average.

But what I'm saying is he's not going to be asked to do a ton, especially early in the season. He's going to have to lead. He's going to have to be good on third down. He's going to have to make good decisions. But if you have a defense guys that can say, hey, look, if you score 24 points, we got a 90% chance to win. that's a really good feeling for a quarterback. That takes a little bit of that pressure from arch. So that's my expectation.

Stop the run, be able to run the football for Texas, and that usually leads to a championship. Yeah, and if I'm Texas, I'm not overly concerned about Ohio State, and why do I say that? The reason why is that Texas played this team in the college football playoff. They got a chance not to shut down, but at least to slow down tremendously, Jeremiah Smith. They've seen it before.

Michael Taft, who's also a preseason All-American, is still going to be back there at safety, number one, number two. The playmakers in that Ohio State game, when Ohio State played Texas, Jack Sawyer, who had the sack at the end of the game to seal the game, Trayvon Henderson, who had that big touchdown run on the screen to help really open up the game. Those guys are gone now. Those main playmakers who made the plays the last time you saw these guys are now in the NFL. I understand that Jeremiah Smith is still a top player, as is Caleb Downs, who had a huge play in that game as well.

But Texas has talent. They've been there before. They've seen this team before, and they're returning so much on the defensive side of the ball. I think they'll be ready for it. Ohio State has to offer. And EJ to you, give me a little something quarterback to quarterback here on the other quarterback in this game. At least Manning's thrown a handful of passes, saying even less than that in a huge spot to

basically begin his career. What does he need to focus on? Well, the focus is going to be making good decisions. In a ballgame like this, especially at home, you want to keep your fan base in it. You also want to feed guys like Jeremiah Smith, who I believe is the best player in the current Cartnell Tate receiver, Brandon Ennis. I'm sure they're going to have a slew of running backs to feed the ball off too. But early in this game, don't feel like you have to make the big post throw.

Don't feel like you've got to force a follow route on or even a basic route across the middle in a third and six situation. Play the game out. Like the first half, you know, take some of that pressure off yourself and not feel like you've got to win the game in the first 30 minutes because it's a 60-minute ball game. So again, the biggest key for inexperienced guys is taking what the defense gives you and allow the game to come to you. And when you get chances to make big plays, you've got to hit on them.

You got to understand that Pete Kwikowski, the defensive coordinator of Texas, he knows the same thing. He knows that Julian's saying is an experience. So I understand that last season, they played a lot of safe coverage versus Ohio State. But I wouldn't be afraid to pressure Julian saying early on obvious pass downs to see if he's really got the stuff that everyone says that he has if I'm Texas's defense. Yeah. Either way, it's one guy making his first career road start at the shoe or the other guy making his first career start ever at the shoe. It'll be fascinating to watch. Although those are not the only two guys that are really kind of taken over in some big opportunities here.

We've got some other guys like Bryce Underwood, who was in high school at this time a year ago. Ty Simpson, who has only thrown a handful of passes. Austin Simmons is in as well replacing Jackson Dart as we throw it over to Joe for some more numbers. Very simple. Three of my favorite futures bets for the upcoming college football season, which we will. will run by the brain trust that is E.J. Manuel and also Sam machos here because he's contractually obligated. Jokes, kidding. We begin, gentlemen, in the ACC, we're going to take a look at Clemson, and we're going to bet over nine and a half wins. Now, if you're new to this, the first thing you want to keep in mind,

bowl games, playoff games, conference championships do not count. It's just the 12-game regular season schedule. But find me three losses on this schedule. I've got Clemson favored in all 12 games. I've got them as double-digit favorites in nine of those 12 games. They're the most experienced team in the nation. Davo finally hit the transfer portal. And on top of that, you have excellent quarterback play from Cade Clubnick, 37 career games, 36 touchdowns to six interceptions last season. E.J., you're up on Clemson.

Agree or disagree over nine and a half wins. Joe, I got two thumbs up, brother. This is a great bet. Easily, they're going to get into double digits in the regular season. So I would say, yes, Clemson over nine and a half. Absolutely. Love the color of the jacket. It goes well with your eyes.

Sam, you're up second, and we're going to go to one of your favorite teams, okay? The Oklahoma Sooners going over six and a half wins. Low number, tough schedule, but as bad as Oklahoma was last season, I think there's an opportunity to buy low. Defense wasn't the problem. It was the offense. So how did they solve that? They went out.

They got Ben Arbuckle to come over, the OC from Washington State. He comes over to take over the Oklahoma offense. He brings over John Matier, his quarterback. I got him favored in eight of 12 games. There's some coin flips in there. But bottom line, I trust the D and the offense has improved. Agree, disagree. Six and a half wins over for Oklahoma.

I would disagree, man. I would stay away from this. I would love to have said they wouldn't go over. But you start looking at the schedule. South Carolina, Texas, LSU. It's not about the offense or the defense or the quarterback. That's about who they play. Let's say you beat Michigan.

Let's say you beat Temple. Let's say you beat Auburn. Now you're 4-0. Kent State, maybe 5-0. You got Texas, South Carolina, Ole Miss. Tennessee, Alabama. I mean, it gets very difficult to start adding up wins. Some of those coin flicks you talk about may not be flipping in their direction. So as much as I'm excited about Ben Arbuckle and John Mateer, that schedule is brutal for Oklahoma and the Sooners.

Classic Texas hater disregard everything you just heard. Audience. Real quick, final one, Alabama to make the playoff minus 190. E.J. will start with you. Nine and three last year in the first year for Kaelin DeBore, but they lost 31 players to either the end. NFL or the transfer portal. I think this is going to be the best defense in the SEC, and I think Ryan Grub coming over as the offensive coordinator, it's huge for them. Agree or disagree, yes, Alabama to make the playoffs.

Yes, I agree. Alabama's going to have a ton of opportunities to play top 25 matchups within conference play, and I think they have a good chance because of the defense as well. Besides Todd Simpson, the defense for Alabama is really good. They might take an L in Tallahassee, but I'll say yes, they are in the playoffs. Achoo, I'll give you one last chance to redeem yourself. I agree or disagree. No, I agree as well on this one.

There's no redemption here, Joe Ford. But I agree. Alabama, I think, was a team that not only is confident, but they're actually a little bit salty on what happened last season. You're returning stars and captains like Caden Proctor. You have Ryan Grub back reunited with Kay Linda Borg, so the offense will be better. So I totally agree that Alabama will make the playoffs this season.

Excellent redemption story, Sam Acho. Zubin, just the tip of the iceberg for what we like this season. More to come in the coming days. Joe, thank you. Those teams, of course, are used to making the playoff. Iowa State, Kansas State, not so much. But maybe this is their year. And it could be the start of a magical year in Ireland.

We'll look back at some of the other great week zero matchups of years past. It's week three of Canadian tires early Black Friday sales. These prices won't go lower this year. Maybe too long. Freezing. Save up to 50% November 20th to 27. Conditions apply, details online. On college football live.

And we're just a couple days away from football, Iowa State, Kansas State, in Ireland. If the countdown continues, we look back at some of the other great week zero games. 2019, Florida, Miami, you had me there. Great finish, DJ Dallas to give Miami the edge. Felipe Franks, though, wow, that's a name from the past. Felipe Franks responding and the Gators pull it out. In our final moment, as you know, Iowa State, Kansas State is going to be in Dublin. They're playing football all over the world now if you watch the NFL and college football saying,

What's the one place you wish you could have suited up and played? You never got the chance. My brother, if I could play in Nigeria, my family's from Nigeria. If I could just play one game, get to Fufu, Plant 10, Pandardium, will do you the best thing ever. See my family, Nigeria will be the sport. Yes. What about you, E.J.?

That's amazing. I have to say San Sero. I can't do the accent, but San Sincereo Stadium in Milan, my wife and I got a chance to visit this summer. I'd have to say into Milan Stadium. international flair for a boat and we'll see you tomorrow.