College Football Live - Final Countdown to National Championship

Episode Date: January 16, 2025

Welcome in to College Football Live Victoria Arlen is joined by Sam Acho and Trevor Matich. The crew has Holly Rowe and Molly McGrath LIVE FROM CAMPUS to give us insight on Ohio State and Notre Dame's preparations ahead of Monday's big game. TREVOR MATICH will break down how Notre Dame's Man Coverage could cause problems for the Buckeyes. And we have our FINAL edition of Tailgate Tips ready to go and our crew will make sure you're all set to sound like an expert infront of all your peers for the Natty --- This is College Football Live -- Let's Go! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We've got a jam-packed Thursday coming your way. I've got Trevor Madage here with me in studio. We've got Sam Acho and warmer in a warmer place with us from afar. And we are counting down the days until Ohio State and Notre Dame face one another in the college football national championship. In fact, we're now just four days away until a new champion will be crowned on Monday, January 20th. So let's get to our favorite reporters who might be two of the busiest and most fabulous human. around Holly Row and Molly McGrath who are with both teams and Holly. I'm going to start with you in Ohio State. Jack Sawyer was the hero for the Buckeyes in the semis. Can you describe the impact he has had for the Ohio State squad? Yes, I mean, this is a young man who was born to make the play that he made an 83-yard scoop and score that changed the course of Buckeye history. He grew up about

20 minutes away from campus. His childhood bedroom was decorated in scarlet and gray. And he has loved the Buckeyes his entire life so that it was him in that moment making that play has not surprised anyone in this building because that enthusiasm and passion fuels this team every single day. So I have seen it. I can feel it on the sidelines. We've been with him in these big college football playoff games and his personality. He's coming over to the offense congratulating them, encouraging them when things are tough. And as one player on the team said Lorenzo Stiles, one of his defensive backs, we said, what impact has he had on you? and he said, well, I've been playing youth sports with Jack Sawyer since I was eight years old in Pickerington, Ohio.

And even then, he would tell me I wasn't competing hard enough. So when I say Jack Sawyer, his competitive passion has infused this entire team. It is very true. And he's a big reason that they will play for a national championship on Monday. He is the ultimate Buckeye. Thank you so much, Holly. All right, let's shift gears over to the Notre Dame side. And Molly, you've been with the fighting Irish and with injuries to their O-line.

what is Notre Dame saying about dealing with those injuries? Well, Victoria, they're all very positive. I mean, it's amazing to look at all of the injuries that this team has endured, yet they're still playing at such a high level. You look at the semi-final. Their left tackle, Anthony Knapp goes down with the high ankle sprain. He's going to be out for this game. Their right guard, Rocco Spindler, has been in and out of the lineup with an ankle injury of his own.

But quarterback Riley Leonard told me he is confident in his protection. Now at practice today, Charles Jagassau reped with the starters at left tackle. He was the original starter in that position, but then suffered an injury in camp that kept him out the entire regular season. Also, right guard Rocco Spindler was a full participant in practice. He was moving really well on that ankle. And good news for the Irish's run game. They're running back.

Jeremiah Love looked explosive in practice today. Despite a right knee injury, you can see that he's wearing a brace on that knee as a precaution, but he told me he feels as though he's really turned a corner with that injury, and he's confident heading into Monday night, Victoria. Good news, Molly, and how Notre Dame has handled adversity is something special this season. Thank you so much, Molly. All right, guys, let's dig more into this matchup. And Trevor, as a former offensive lineman, how concerned are you about this banged-up O line?

Big concern. Yeah. Because you've got guys coming off of injuries, you've got guys dealing with injuries. And when you're facing a defensive front like Ohio State that has individual defensive linemen and linebackers that can win their individual battles one-on-one, it's a real problem, not just with the ability to block one guy, but with the chemistry that you need to handle all the different stunts that the Buckeyes will throw at you. Now, what kind of impact could that have on the fighting Irish's game plan? Well, what I think they'll do is use the quarterback run to keep the Buckeye scoring machine on the sideline. because Notre Dame doesn't really have the personnel on offense to keep up with Ohio State. So playing keepaway is going to be the key in quarterback run really will help do that.

There's a couple advantages. Now, normally the running back will run the ball. Quarterback will hand it off and just stand there and watch. But when you run the quarterback, there's a couple of big advantages for the offense. Let's look at this again. One of those advantages is that there's now an extra blocker at the point of attack. But there's actually one other huge advantage. without that extra blocker, there's only one gap there.

But if you put that extra blocker there, there are now two gaps there that the defense has to account for. Everybody can be in the right gap, but if you don't close off the extra gap, then the quarterback's going to get through anyway. And that's one of the reasons that Riley Leonard has been so successful running the ball from the quarterback position. Yeah, and I love that tape, Trevor, but I think the difference is defensively,

when you study tape, you can see, okay, well, the quarterback run is a huge part of Notre Dame's game plan and not just quarterback draw, but plays like that. where it's quarterback power play, where you're pulling guards, or maybe you're having, maybe it's a running back insert. And so what's going to have to happen on the Ohio State side of the ball is that the safeties are going to have to have their eyes in the backfield to know when some of these runs are coming. So think about guys like Caleb Downs and Lathen Ransom.

Yes, they're great in the passing game, but these guys are making plays in the running game as well. You can find Lath and Ransom and Caleb Dounds oftentimes in the opponent's backfield. If not in the backfield, they're meeting you just like that in the hole. And so, yes, one of the advantages of doing quarterback, Greta is that you have an extra blocker, one of the advantages of Ohio State's defense is that those safeties are so intelligent,

they know what plays are coming, and they can play the play. Let's also take a look at how these teams fare after the halftime pep talk, particularly in the third quarter. Notre Dame ranks in the top 10 in the FBS in yards per game, while Ohio State ranks in the top five

and points per game and points per game allowed in the third quarter. These two always seem to come out swing, but only one will be successful come Monday. But Sam, what type of impact do you see the coaches having in this game? I think there will be a huge impact in this game. And this is one of those games where you try to realize how much of an impact will the coaches actually make. Oftentimes as a player, you say, hey, I'm the one on the field. I'm the one who can control it.

I'm the one who's in the arena, if you will. But I think when it comes to Notre Dame and Marcus Freeman from a guy who played not only the defensive position, but played at Ohio State, played at a high level, I think a lot of those players are understanding that the impact and the influence that he has, not just in the pregame preparation leading up to it, but also when it comes to halftime. Notre Dame is one of the best teams in college football

when it comes to third quarter adjustments. In their last five games, there's something like 52 and 14 outscoring their opponents. And so the difference that I'm going to be looking out for is what happens in the third quarter of this game? How much belief does Marcus Freeman instill into his players not just before in preparation, but when the game actually begins and those halftime adjustments. Sam, I agree with that.

And one of the things about the Notre Dame excellence in the third quarter is that it will have to, those adjustments will have to overcome the weight of Ohio State's talent. Because the Buckeyes top to bottom just have more healthy dudes that can make plays at an NFL level than Notre Dame does right now. And so what typically happens with Ohio State is that they'll play pretty close to the vest in the first half, then come out in the second half and just start hammering away and just start busting off huge place. And it is the coaching adjustments from Notre Dame that will have to overcome those players that Ohio State is going to keep throwing at them in waves. And I think, too, both coaches are looking for their first national championship trophy as a head coach. So a lot is on the line for both teams.

And speaking of that trophy, you're looking at the college football playoff national championship trophy presented by Dr. Pepper. in just four days, a new champion will be crowned. And on the eve of the CFP National Championship, the decision makers who have the ultimate authority over the playoff format will hold their annual business meeting. Most likely, a portion of their lengthy meeting is expected to be spent reviewing the first 12-team playoff season, discussing what worked and maybe what didn't,

and the questions raised on the postseason. And for more, we bring in our favorite senior college football insider Heather Dinnich, who gives us great insight into all things CFP with her article on ESPN Plus right now. And Heather, what kind of changes could potentially be discussed in this meeting? Well, CFP Executive Director Rich Clark, told me that this is basically setting the table for more thorough conversations. But the FBS commissioners and Notre Dame Athletic Director Pete Bavacqua are going to talk about everything. Everything fans are talking about, they're going to talk about. seating, strength of schedule, the selection committee itself. I've had multiple commissioners say

to me that they would simply like a better understanding of what matters most to the selection committee. ACC commissioner Jim Phillips told me he would like some more clarity on how the selection committee treats conference championship game participants. And so there are a lot of questions in terms of first round home games, seedings, buys, you name it. They're going to talk about it. But Because Sunday's meeting is only 90 minutes, I would expect that they push things forward for more deeper conversations, maybe in a virtual meeting next month, and definitely at their annual CFP spring meetings in April. So if there were to be changes, hypothetically speaking, when could we see them going into effect? Victoria, my sources are very skeptical that anything will change for 2025, this coming fall, the next thing. season. And that is because in order for anything to change for 2025, it has to be unanimously

agreed upon by the FBS commissioners and the presidents and chancellors in charge of the college football playoff. I don't know what your house is like, but they can't unanimously agree on what to have for dinner tonight. This has been a problem over the past decade, getting everyone on the same page. So the more likely scenario, according to my sources, is that they take a deep dive on all of these issues and including the format, 12 or 14 teams or maybe even 16 teams for 2026 is when college football fans can probably expect significant changes if they do make them to the college football playoff postseason. You know, Heather, growing up with three brothers, it was never a unanimous decision on anything, so I totally get that. Thank you so much, Heather.

We always appreciate you. For more, head on over to ESPN Plus to check out Heather's article. It is a must read. All right. When we return, Will Howard will have the tough task of navigating the Notre Dame man defense on Monday. Trevor will explain how it is indeed possible to navigate. Plus, our

favorite betting analyst is here, so better get your notebooks ready because Joe Fortinbaugh is back to give you all the betting advice. Joe, you got to wake up. We need you. You need to talk. You need to get ready. Now let's take a look at the National Championship odds for Monday.

the Buckeyes are currently more than a touchdown favorite versus the fighting Irish, while the game total sits right at 45 and a half. However, it is worth noting that Notre Dame is undefeated this season as an underdog. All right, let's cue the applause one more time this season. Yep, our favorite betting analyst, Joe Fortinbaugh is here. He's emotional. Sad day, I was told by our wonderful producer, Amy, in not so subtle terms, that I will not be welcome back after today's show.

Last opportunity. Great to be with you guys. It is lies. You are welcome anytime, Joe. But we wait to go out on a dramatic note for the season. Joe will be back whenever he's like. But Joe, this matchup, what are your best bets for the Natty? First two out of the shoot, Ohio State minus eight.

I will play the Buckeyes here. I also, Notre Dame's offense, their team total, how many points they score in this game? I go under 17 and a half points. I think the story in this game come Tuesday morning is going to be the Ohio State defense. Texas, Oregon. and their opening matchup against Tennessee. They gave up 17 points for game. Those offenses are no slouches.

You're going up against the Notre Dame offense that, while they've been very tough, very feisty, they're in a situation where they're a one-dimensional unit. They're very good against the run. If you fall behind, you're not going to be able to run in the second half. And when they turn it over to the passing game, that's what worries me. So Ohio State minus the points.

I have no problem laying it, even though we've seen Notre Dame money, Notre Dame under 17 and a half points as well. All right, Trevor, let's talk about Ohio State's offense. It's going to be a tough challenge. for Al Golden's defense. So what did the Irish do well on that side of the ball that can cause problems for Ohio State?

Kind of the opposite of what Texas did. Texas predominantly a zone coverage team. Notre Dame runs man coverage 57% of the time. And it messes with you. Let's look back at the Penn State semifinal. The final minute, the interception that changed the game and led to Notre Dame's winning field goal. Now we've seen this time and again.

Let's look at it again. Because a bunch of things happened because of good man coverage. Now, Drew Aller is going to look to his left at three guys that are all smothered by man coverage. Now, let's run it back and see the cascade that happens against them because of this. Now, if Aller stays in the pocket, which he could do, then he's going to have good protection. The problem is that the linebacker Jalen Sneed gets a different angle when Aller moves to the left to try to buy time and look for his receivers that are smothered on the left. Now, let's look at what happens on the other side. His fourth receiver is man coverage by Christian Gray.

So if he goes up field, Gray will just get in his hip pocket and run with him. When he comes across, though, Gray will beat him up and look to the left of the screen. Because the quarterback is pressured, he doesn't have time to look downfield and confirm that his receiver's in the right spot. Gray will actually get physical with that receiver and end up in front of him where the receiver is supposed to be. That was actually an accurate throw. but because of tight man coverage on the left side, that led to the pressure, that led to the throw that was a bit early on the right side, and that led to the pivotal play in the semifinal.

And that's a great thing about this Notre Dame defense, Trevor, because to your point, Notre Dame plays more man than anyone else in college football, and they do it at a very high level. I get it. Will Howard has been great against man, but Will Howard hasn't faced a lot of man. His numbers look great, but then face it a lot, because teams don't want to play Jeremiah Smith, one-on-one. And so I get it. Okay, first and second.

Time for first and fourth. But Notre Dame has a larger sample size, 57% over half of the time in man coverage. And so I think whether it's Leonard Moore, whether it's Christian Gray, the two corners, whether it's Jordan Clark at nickel, or whether it's Xavier Watson safety helping out, I think it's going to be a great opportunity for Notre Dame to continue to play man defense because they have the depth. Texas we saw got exposed defensively because Texas's second and third and fourth corners couldn't keep up with Ohio State's second, third, fourth receivers.

But I think that Notre Dame has the depth on that defensive secondary to keep up. Tremendous analysis from both of you, which leads right into a prop, right? Will Harrod's passing prop, 249 and a half yards. Now that's right on, bang on his average for the season, about 251 yards. Now, this defense, much better than what he's seen on average. I would go over, however, I think the man coverage is the key. You already highlighted how he's played against man, and it's one thing to lock up Penn State's wide receiving unit.

It's a completely different thing to try to slow down what Ohio State's going to throw at you. So either Notre Dame has to go away from what they like to do, which is unlikely, or they got to play man against the best wide receiving unit in the nation, which I think leads to enough jail breaks where we go over 250 passing yards in this one. If we've seen anything this college football season, is that anything can happen. And that all goes down on Monday. The college football playoff national championship game presented by AT&T at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

In Atlanta, Ohio State against Notre Dame Monday at 7.30 Eastern on ESPN. LSU freshman quarterback Colin Hurley has been hospitalized following an early morning car accident near the gates of LSU's campus. According to a crash report, Hurley was found unresponsive but breathing and was pulled from his Dodge Charger. LSU officials said they were unable to comment on the situation because Hurley, who was 17, is still a minor. No word on his condition or what caused the accident. Hurley, who was a true freshman, did not play this season. Snap up Ancestry DNA's lowest price ever in our incredible cyber sale. With 50% off ancestry DNA kits, it's the perfect time to help a loved one unwrap the past.

And with their latest update, they'll discover their family origins like never before. With even more precise regions and new and exclusive features. Their best gift, our lowest price. 50% off Ancestry DNA, only until December 2nd. To Ancestry.CA for more details. Terms apply. It's the championship edition of tailgate tips. Sam, you got to go. Watch who starts the second half, not the beginning of the game, the second half. Notre Dame is 52 and 14 point differential in the third quarter. Trevor. Watch out for quarterbacks under pressure. Will Howard is much better than Riley Leonard. Jeremiah Smith over 79 and a half receiving yards man coverage is going to be a problem for Notre Dame.

They could be. Notre Dame could be to Ohio State for the first time since 1936. We're out!