College Football Live - Must-Win Games?

Episode Date: November 12, 2024

Jen Lada, Stanford Steve and Pete Thamel preview a week 11 slate with plenty of College Football Playoff hopes on the line, including two huge SEC matchups. Is Alabama-LSU an elimination game? Plus, Stanford Steve gives his gambling guide for the weekend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to College Football Live, presented by DirecTV. Well, stop me if you've heard this one before. Operator, put me on through. We are hanging out in Baton Rouge. That's right. There is a big game happening here. Alabama versus LSU. Some might say an elimination game of sorts.

You got the eye of the tiger. We got live tigers. It's going to be a scene in Death Valley. But then again, it always is when the tiger. play at night. Welcome into college football live. He's Pete Thammell, he's Stanford, Steve, and I'm Jen Latter. That's right, a huge game.

Look, the good thing about the new college football playoff is a lot more teams, a lot more fan bases, still invested at this point in the season. It is November, right? Doesn't feel like it here in Baton Rouge, but Alabama and LSU is sort of an elimination game. So let's talk about that game. It is our road test presented by Good Year. Number 15 LSU hosting number 11 Alabama in Death Valley.

The Tigers boasting a 15 game win streak in Death Valley at night games. Meanwhile, Kaelin DeBore's Crimson Tide look to avoid their first three lost season since 2010. Here's Coach DeBore on the must win game earlier this week. You just can't dig yourself a hole, especially giving the opponent to momentum in an environment like we're going to see at LSU. So it's critical. We preach it every day. We try to even set up our practice to where we do start fast, whether it's offense or defense. Unfortunately, like you said, we have less wiggle room and, you know, our backs are to the wall.

And so, you know, we're going to fight, you know, each and every day, bite scratch and claw like you've never seen. And that continues on this week. We got some booze here when we showed Kalin DeVore on college football live. Steve, you have said this is one of the best environments in all of college football. What makes it so intimidating for opponents? Not one of the best. It is the best environment there is in the sport. There's no question about it.

It's because of these people. The passion, the noise they bring to the table, the environment, the buildup. But the craziest thing of this game, when you look at these two teams, is Nick Sabin's going to be sitting right here for the first time and forever. And when I think about the game,

you talk about Alabama winning 11 in the last 13. LSU hasn't won two in a row in Tiger Stadium against Alabama since 2006. But the most amazing thing was since overtime was brought in in 1996, no series has had more overtime games than Alabama and LSU. Five times they've met in overtime. And that just tells you how big this is. And now you talked about the playoff implications.

Yeah, it's as big as it gets with two name brands. And being in that stadium, there's nothing better than that. This is a setting, Jan, that you can feel in your soul. It is visceral. It is raw. is real. I concur with Steve. There's no better place to watch a college football game at night than Tiger Stadium. And the test for Alabama is going to be a simple one. Can they keep their composure when they went to Knoxville? Another very good setting, by the way. At night, they had

15 penalties. Six of them were pre-snap on offense. You cannot win in Tiger Stadium at night if you're moving backwards and you have self-induced penalties like that. So let's talk about the quarterbacks. Who has a better chance in this one, Steve? Well, when you talk about the quarterbacks, you have to talk about what we've seen recently. Garrett Nussmeyer, worst game of the year. Three picks on the road in a loss of Texas A&M. Jalen Milro, two road losses in SEC play, turn the ball over four times. So the quarterback position has to be better. I would lean Nussmeier because I like the matchup better against Alabama's secondary, and I just love the talent of LSU's wide receivers throw in there LSU's offensive line against Alabama's defensive line. So I would

give to the nuts to Nussmeyer at home also. Jen, this is only Garrett Nussmeyer's 10th career start. He's been around for a while. We know his dad, who was an assistant for Nick Saban at Alabama. He's an NFL assistant now. But this is really Garrett Nutsmeier's first hard look at adversity, right? I mean, he imploded in the second half of that last LSU game. They've had a week off.

It's going to be really interesting to see how he comes back and responds. He will have a little more help with C.J. Daniels. And then obviously, Chris Hilton, Jr. now is really going to be back. He's returned to the lineup, but they really feel like he can help them take the top off an opposing defense. That's an element LSU hasn't had this season. Well, speaking of defense, we got to watch LSU's defense because they've had trouble with quarterbacks who can run. We know what Jalen Milro did the last time he faced LSU. Teams flip over, obviously, calendar years, transfer portal and whatnot.

But they had trouble last week, week nine rather, as well, containing a mobile quarterback. Let's see if that can change when the two teams face off. All right, Pete, let's get to some of your top stories as we went enter. Week 11, beginning with breaking news. Yeah, breaking news just in the last hour, Jen. Will Johnson, who's one of the top cornerbacks in all college football and expected to be the top draft pick at the corner position, is out this game. Michigan obviously goes to Indiana and the matchup of the winningest and losing his programs

in college football history. Will Johnson will not return. He hasn't played since he had a lower body injury in that Illinois game, and the clock is ticking for Will Johnson in the rest of the season there for Michigan. As for tomorrow's new and tilt with big ACC implications, Haynes King is going to, we're not going to really know until tomorrow. They are hopeful Hanks King will play. He has returned to practice.

I've been told he's taking some first team reps, but we're really not going to know with that upper body injury that Haines King has been dealing with probably until kickoff, whether or not he can go for Georgia Tech. He's 12 and 8 as a starter for Georgia Tech, such a key part of what they do there. As for the Florida Texas game, all eyes and pregame are going to be on D.J. Jay Lagway. He obviously injured that hamstring. You can see it right here in the Georgia game. Look like he caught a chunk of bad turf as he was running right there. Lagway is really Florida's only healthy quarterback right now. They have Aidan Warner, the Yale transfer, who would start

if Lagway can't go. There's been a lot of pessimism in the sentiment out of Florida, whether or not Lagway can play. We'll see if he can get it going pregame tomorrow. And then obviously the biggest story of the week in college football, Florida athletic director Scott Strickland released a yesterday that said Billy Napier will return as Florida's coach in 2025. Napier would have been owed more than $26 million if Florida had fired him. That's this. That would have been the second biggest buyout in the history of college football. Napier is back. He's going to be Florida's coach next year. I think the stat that's important here is that 70% of Florida's NIL money is in freshman and sophomores. By keeping Napier, you keep that young nucleus together. DJ Lagway

is part of that young nucleus. Let's see if they can grow. credit them after back-to-back home blowout losses. Florida's really stuck together and played well. I believe they call that an insurance policy in the industry, guys. So let's talk about that Napier decision, 15 and 18 in his two and a half seasons in Florida. You good with this? I am. I'm really good with it.

When you look at what he's trying to build there, I get it. Every fan base wants more wins. But when you talk about the luck they've had, I mean, last week, Lagway in, they're winning that game. You know, they're right in it. That would have been one of the biggest upsets in the SEC all year. So when you look at what he's established and the way they continued to fight and the way he's built recruiting. And then you talk about or you look around, you know, in teams in the other states, Florida State way at the beginning was, you know, about Norville. They stuck with it.

They had an undefeated season with him. I don't want to come on in this year. But then Miami, they invested in the portal. Like those teams, it can be done. As coach Saban says, you just got to pay the right players. So I like it. It has a stability there. They still have a chance for a couple of wins.

You don't know what teams are going to do as we get later in the season. So I really like the decision. Okay. So they have Texas this weekend, though. Does this motivate them knowing that their coach is? Maybe they're not in the conversation anymore about hot seat and whatnot. Do you expect to see a good Florida team out there against Texas? It all depends on one lagway.

He's their biggest difference maker. You saw what he was able to do against Georgia, who's a better defense than Texas. But in this match, I'll actually look at the other side. Like Texas needs to bust out. You know, people starting to look at their resume. The Michigan win is. isn't as impressive anymore. They got dominated by Georgia, and you look up and down that schedule.

There's not a lot. I don't think there's another ranked win. So Texas needs to come out and establish themselves. Also want to see Quinn Ewer's throw the ball down the football. Well, Isaiah Bond is back at fully healthy enough for Texas. That's going to be a big asset for them as they move forward here. But you're right, see, Texas is in a little bit of schedule in Netherworld. When we were standing on the sideline in Ann Arbor, nobody would have thought Texas's schedule

would be in question. On paper, they challenged themselves as much as anyone in the non-conference. But things haven't fallen that way. Oklahoma's become a middling team. And here Texas is in early November, even though it doesn't feel like it, having to answer some questions if they want to push forward and get a high seed in the playoff. As for Florida, their record is four and four.

They do have Texas, as we mentioned, then LSU, then Ole Miss, then at FSU. So that FSU game should be great for them. It looks like guys, right? All right. Let's get to the SEC on ABC. College football lineup. It's going to be great tomorrow. Number five, Texas hosting Florida.

We just mentioned that noon Eastern in. Austin. Then it's off to Oxford, number three Georgia and number 16 Ole Miss. And of course, the nightcap is the one. All these fans here are looking forward to number 15 LSU hosting number 11 Alabama. Catch it all on ABC or the ESPN plus coming up on college football live. Can Colorado make a comeback and get into the playoff picture? They're currently sitting at 20th, but coach prime says they got a real chance. Plus Georgia still top dogs in the SEC. But they have a chance to potentially eliminate Ole Miss from the playoffs in their matchup this weekend. Can Georgia win at the Grove?

College Football Live is presented by DirecTV. All your entertainment, nothing on your roof. Stream DirecTV satellite free. Your way 9 to noon Eastern every Saturday morning. Paul Skeens and Livy Dunn as guest pickers sign me. up. Let's take a look at this week's college football playoff rankings and the 12 team bracket. Ohio State and Georgia

take number two and three respectively. Of course, Oregon is top the list. While Indiana and BYU are ranked in the top 10 for the first time, and how about Colorado sitting there at number 20? It's their first time being ranked in the top 20 since 2016. Coach Prime spoke earlier this week

on how he likes the buff's chances. We've been through a lot and we're prepared for the moment. We're not shining away from what we expect. We expect to be in this. We expect to be where we are. We expect to be better than where we are, honestly, but we're here. And we're thankful, we're happy, we're excited, we're related, but we're not done. And we can not wait to get to love it, to do what we're gifted to do. All right, Steve and Pete, Steve, I'll start with you. Do you think Colorado has a good shot at a run here? Yeah, they already started it. You know, when they got that second loss in

conference play. They really had to get right to ship. They needed some luck. They got that last week at a by week with Iowa State and Kansas State, who's the team they lost to losing. So now they have the edge and the standings. But when you look at what they're up against now, they're going to be favored in every single game the rest of the way. They play great on off edge. Shador looks as comfortable as he has in his career. And Pat Schumer has done a great job with having a plan every week. And they're going to be a tough out. Now that place is going to be a zoo in Lubbock tomorrow with the tortillas. So be careful. But if Colorado plays well, they're going to be fine. We have to give us Deon some truth serum. Is you really looking forward to being in

Lubbock? Like really that much? The tortillas will be flying in Boulder. Yes. The tortillas will be flying in that state and be electric. The biggest day of the year in Lubbock, Texas is tomorrow night. And the reason for the optimism of the Texas Tech side is Taj Brooks. Colorado's improved. They've improved on offense. They've improved on both lines. Their run defense is still a little bit susceptible, Jen. They've given up. 155 yards a game. It's just number 72 in the country right now. And Taj Brooks is one of the most dynamic backs in the country. He scored the game when he touchdown against Iowa State on that wildcat play.

He's averaging 130.9 yards. Will Tech be patient enough to establish the run? These big 10 games tend to devolve into shootouts pretty fast. But if Tech can control the ball, keeps Shador on the sideline, they could make a long night in Lubbock for which time. is one of four players with back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons and 10 rushing touchdown seasons. Only three other guys in college football are on that list as well. Meanwhile, guys, the ACC is also heating up.

Miami and SMU are the only unbeaten teams in conference play. But Clemson is waiting there in the wings at 5 in 1. So as you look at the standings there and the playoff percentage on that graphic, SMU is on a buy Steve. Miami faces Georgia Tech, who they lost you last season. Could this game, Miami, Georgia Tech, shake things up in that league? It could. He touched on Haynes King.

Georgia Tech really needs him. Sounds like he's going to do everything he can to give it a go. And with Haynes King, you bring a quarterback run game that could be frustrating to play against. And so what Georgia Tech does pre-snap with their shifts, with their motions, what we've seen from Miami's defense in conference games, every game's been close. They needed a crazy comeback again to beat Duke last week. So they've, they're three double-digit comebacks. It's three and O in one-score games.

It'd be nice to see Miami not play a one-score game. So the interesting thing about Miami for me is pretty simple. Can they actually go play a full four quarters? Their fourth quarter stats, they're outscoring the opponents by 90 points in the fourth quarter of games. Once they get rubbed up and go, they go. But their defense has just been inconsistent enough where I feel like a similar game plan to what we saw in Dublin by Georgia Tech, shorten the game. Keep Cam Ward on the sideline. Haynes King is the maestro of third and two.

Fines three yards one way or another. If they do that and Miami is susceptible to some of its early wheel spinning, we could really see a close game on the flats tomorrow. If Miami gets that win, their chances of facing SMU in the title game increased to 91%. Let's talk about Clemson as well, Pete. You're going to be watching them close to this weekend. Yeah, Jen, I just don't know what to make a Clemson this season. The two times they've played formal opponents, they've turtled.

And in the other games, they've absolutely blitzed everybody. So difficult situation. It's never easy to play at Virginia Tech, even though this isn't a vintage Virginia Tech team. Kiron Drones, the quarterback for Tech, has been practicing in full. They're expecting him to come back this week. I want to see an authoritative performance by these Clemson Tigers. I want to see them dominate from end to end. They, quite frankly, Steve just mentioned, don't deserve to be ranked in the playoffs.

I mean, they just haven't beaten anybody right now. And it's this team that's stuck in this upper middle class netherworld where they're not good enough to really be competing to the Standard Davos sat early in his career there, but yet they're still very good by most conventional metrics. So it's a weird little situation they're stuck in there where they're just in the upper middle class and they can't break out. They're very fortunate to have a ranking next to their name with that resume. That's my takeaway.

I just saw that they're favored by six and a half on the road this weekend. We'll see what happens there. Steve, we will have your gambling guide. Coming up, Georgia heads to Ole Miss this weekend for a potential SEC elimination game. Can the dogs defense slow down Jackson, Dart, and Lane Kippman? That's next. You're watching College Football Live, presented by DirecTV. College Football Live is presented by DirecTV.

All your entertainment, nothing on your roof. Stream DirecTV, satellite free. You get a touchdown. Everybody gets a touchdown. It's officially the best first half in ACC history. And Texas gets some sweet payback today. And it has intercepted. About that trickery for some fun out there on a Saturday.

College football, you are so, so unpredictable. Here on college football live in Baton Rouge, and it is time for Steve's gambling guide for week 11. Steve, what are you watching this week? Thank you, Jen. This is where I wish we had a camera on Marissa, and she could get all embarrassed because Marrude. and the research staff have told me this is the first time in the history of the ESPN database

that Indiana is favorite. Yeah, there she is. They tell me this is the first time Indiana has been favored over Michigan in the history of the ESPN database, which is nuts. And on top of that, they're giving 14 points. But with Pete's news about Will Johnson being out, I really like the matchup for Indiana. They pride themselves on a quick, efficient passing game. The defensive line shouldn't be a problem for Indiana's offensive line.

We're going to lay the points with the Hoosiers at home. given 14 to the Wolverines. We touched on this game earlier. I talked about how much I love what Pat Shermer has done as Colorado's offensive coordinator, a great plan every week. Shador, as comfortable as he's been in his career in Boulder. Texas Dex past defense is not a strength. Therefore, we will give the points with the Buffaloes at home or on the world.

Sorry, and love it. And then finally, another road favorite, which is tough to say because usually those aren't successful. But Georgia, this is the matchup, man. When you look at what it is in Ole Miss, this trouble they've had against blocking opposing defenses, Georgia brings a whole different animal to the table. We saw what it looked like at Texas when they needed a win in a huge way,

that defense stepped up. If you try the quick passing game, they tackle excellent. You want to try the deep passing game. They get to the quarterback. So I like Georgia in that matchup and we'll lay the points there. All right, let's continue with that game as we take a look at today's player to watch, brought to you by today's military. And Jackson Dark guys, he's been on a heater lately.

A program record 515 passing yards in the win over Arkansas. My goodness, he will look to keep it rolling this weekend when the Revels face Georgia's 13th ranked scoring defense that you just referenced there. So Pete, I'll start with you. Another potential SEC elimination game. Ole Miss needs to get a win here. What are the headlines that we should be watching for? I think the biggest headline is will Ole Miss have enough players? Because if you look at their injury report with 26 different rebels listed on it,

would think they might not do that. I think Lane Kiffin's trying to have a little fun with Kirby Smart and sent that injury report out just to see what his reaction would be in Athens and try to play some games over who might be playing and who might not be playing. The most important name of those 26 is Trey Harris, the wide receiver. He was obviously leading the nation and passing before he went down. He's been out for a couple weeks. He is listed as doubtful. He dressed last week, even though he did not warm up, which is not usual. And then in the second and half, he was in sideline and street close. All indicators are that Trey Harris is actually doubtful. We will spend a lot of tonight and tomorrow

trying to decipher which of those 26 gentlemen will and will not be playing for the rebels tomorrow. Ole Miss was fantastic last week without Trey at wide receiver. I mean, you showed the graphic with the numbers that Jackson Dart had, but that was against Arkansas. And this isn't Arkansas. This is Georgia. And that defense travels, as I just mentioned before. So the idea of Ole Miss, we just haven't seen them win these games when you're playing against top-ranked teams. Can they do it tomorrow? It's a sure another opportunity. We'll see. So Ole Miss went on this portal run, right? Lanes the Portal King, and they have a home game against Georgia. Like, this is the collision of the experiment.

Is it working? Is it not working? Their lines were the clear weaknesses last year when we were at that game in Athens. Can they hold up on both sides? It's both in the game and in the program. It's a fascinating getting snapshot in Oxford tomorrow. And Steve, you touched on this a moment ago, but your biggest concern for this game is. Ole Miss in these in these opportunities, one in 24 all time against top two teams. We just haven't seen it, which also gives me bias towards liking Georgia in the game. Like if, you know, we all, Reese has said it a lot. If not when for Ole Miss, you've pointed out what they've done in the portal.

They've gone all in as a program. And the goal was the playoff. And now that's in jeopardy. The case for Ole Miss optimism is a rattled car. He has turtled in big games this year. Three interceptions in three different games. Can Walter Nolan and the boys get some pressure on him and get him a little bit sideways again? He's shown some susceptibility to that.

That'll be a good game. And the good game here between Alabama and LSU is sure to pull eyeballs as well. These fans out here will certainly be paying attention to that one. Thanks for hanging out with us here on college football live. Have a great one, everyone. And we will see you tomorrow morning for College Game Day 9 to New Eastern on ESPN. Thank you.