College Football Live - Playoff Predictor Time!

Episode Date: November 8, 2023

Host Kelsey Riggs is joined by Sam Acho, Jordan Reid, and Pete Thamel as they discuss the timeline of the Michigan investigation, and how their time to respond to the Big 10 is running out. Also, Jordan recaps his QB Hotboard, looking at the best quarterbacks this College Football season. Finally, it's time to look at the Allstate Playoff Predictor and where the top teams stand. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome into college football live. I'm Kelsey Riggs, and we're coming out the tunnel with this. The top eight teams in the latest CFP rankings are the same, but this weekend's matchups could have some major implications moving forward. And could we see one of the top players in the country on the field this weekend? Plus, as the season winds down, the talk about the top quarterback in the country heats up. Jordan Reed is here to tell us why the top pick may not be so clear cut. And the signed stealing scandal in Michigan continues to evolve. Pete Thammel joins us with the latest on the Wolverines response. And what's next?

College Football Live starts now. Welcome to College Football Live, presented by Zillow. Welcome into College Football Live, Kelsey Riggs, Jordan Reed, and Sam Ocho hanging out with you. We've also got Heather Dinnich and Pete Thamel standing by for more on what's happening in Michigan and also with the college football playoff rankings. But let's get right to it, guys, because there was no change at the top. You've got to look all the way down to number nine before you saw any changes as you take a look at this week's college football playoff rankings brought to you by Prudential. The top eight teams remain the same as they were in the first reveal.

Now, Georgia, they did take down a top 15 Missouri team at home last weekend, and you'll see Oregon still remains the highest ranked one lost team in the nation. But we got to get straight to some big news surrounding the number two team in the country and one of the best players. UGA tight in. Brock Bowers is back running now, according to his head coach. coach Kirby Smart. He had tight rope surgery on a high ankle sprain almost a month ago. Here's his head coach today on Brock Bowers status ahead of the top 10 matchup this weekend with Ole Miss. Well, I think there's a lot of markers he's got a hit. He's working towards that. And I've never seen a person work as hard as he's worked to try to create an opportunity for himself.

He's not a greater risk of long-term career type things. What it boils down to is can he help us win? And is he comfortable with that? And do we think that he can do the things he has to do to be able to help us do it? And he's got to hit those numbers and check off those boxes we talk about with Excel and D.C.L. Before, that's a decision. What I heard is, so you're saying there's a chance, Jordan Reed, that we might get to see him in this top 10 matchup. So what's the impact if Brock Bowers can indeed go for this Georgia team and this game, man, moving forward?

It's huge just because you talk about Brock Bowers. who I think is one of the best players in all of college football and just his impact on the Georgia offense, not just as a receiver. He can help you in the run blocking game as well. But it's a little bit of gamesmanship by Kirby Smart, in my opinion, give a little bit something extra to think about going into one of the biggest games of the season. And I firmly believe if Georgia wins this game, they should be number one overall in the college football playoff.

Sam? Well, to your point, Jordan, I think about this. Georgia has been able to win. They beat number 12, Missouri, without Brock. Bauer's and who stepped up. We saw players like Ladd McCocky two weeks ago step up. So many different players. Dominic Lovick step up. So now of a sudden players have known what it feels like to play without Brock Bowers. Now you get that weapon back. This offense is going to be on a different level. It would be amazing for them if they're

able to get him back at any point, but especially this weekend for that matchup. Let's bring in Heather Dinnich now because Heather, the other side of this is this is a really good team that they're facing. It's a 31% chance that ESPN analytics gives the rebels to upset Georgia this weekend. So what kind of chaos could we see with the SEC with the college football playoff if in fact that does happen? Kelsey, this could be so much fun and really make the selection committee sweat if Ole Miss Beach Georgia. Georgia wins the SEC. And you have an 11-1 Rebels team sitting there with a win against the SEC champs, one of the best resumes in the country, and not even a division title. So what do they do?

I don't know the answer to that because you've also got Texas and Alabama. It would be a fantastic debate. But on the flip side of it, if Georgia wins this game, to Jordan's point, I would say that there is no other team in the top six with a better chance to move up than Georgia because Georgia would have wins against a top 10 team plus a top 15 team in Missouri. And that would finally trump Ohio State's resume, which is two best wins. are against Penn State and number 20 Notre Dame. That's the difference.

That's the kind of win the selection committee is waiting for, I think, to see from Georgia. And the other thing is, if Michigan beats Penn State, you're going to see that Ohio State win against the nitty lines devalued a little bit because Penn State's obviously going to drop them in the ranking with a second loss. Heather, this is going to be a massive weekend. And to your point, some big games that are on the line that could have a lot of implications for what happens moving forward. We talked a little bit about that Georgia game.

And you just heard Heather mentioned Michigan and Penn State another top 10 battle this weekend that has major implications. Also, Washington and Utah, remember Washington right now on the outside looking in at number five. They've got a match up with Utah this weekend. So could be interesting, Sam. Let's start with Washington, the team that's trying to find and fight their way in. What intrigues you about their matchup this weekend with Utah and how it could help them moving forward? I couldn't be more excited about this matchup, Kelsey, because if I'm a player for the Washington Huskies, I'm looking at our schedule and saying this is awesome.

We have two more teams that are ranked in the top 20 that we get to play to help boost our resume. Right now, Washington has the best win in college football. They have a win over the number six ranked Oregon team. Oregon's the first team with one loss. That's number one. Number two, they have a win against a really good Arizona team that's now in the top 25, they're ranked 21st overall. And so you have those two top 25 wins.

You find a way to beat Utah, which is a really physical team. I think the Sledge community is going to be looking and saying, man, let's see how this Washington offense lines up. So you add that third top 25 win and then Oregon State, that they're number 18 right now. So four top 25 wins, you're another team, to Heather's point, that can move up, not just, not just Georgia, but Washington could move up and get on the inside instead of the outside. They've got the 10th hardest remaining schedule. So as you mentioned, some big opportunities for them. Jordan, also Michigan, though, going to face the biggest test that they've faced so far. What do you have your eye on in that and what can help them moving forward?

Well, it's a great opportunity for Michigan just because they don't have any high quality wins to date to this year. But playing Penn State going into Happy Valley, this is an opportunity for them to get a monumental win. And this is the type of game that everybody wants to see Michigan in just because they have not played anybody this year. So what a better way to go into Happy Valley and potentially get a big win. This is the type of resume building type of win that they need to, I think, stamp their status in the college football playoffs. And they have another opportunity coming up in a couple weeks against Ohio State as well. All right, Jordan, definitely a few things to keep an eye on there. But let's also take a look at something that is a little further down.

And that's the 6 through 8 spot as we take a look at What's Your Beef presented by Old Trapper. And Oregon, we mentioned still remains the highest one-loss team at number 6, Texas. And Alabama, they could definitely argue their case if either of these games based off of higher percentages of recent performances. You take a look at the resume of those teams in mind. Now, keep in mind Oregon's only win coming with a winning. record was that 18th ranked Utah team. But according to our ESPN analytics, Alabama has the toughest remaining schedule of the three teams to have a chance to push the SEC West with a win over Kentucky this weekend. So some big things there, but six through eight did not change.

So Sam, do you agree with the order there? Oregon, Texas, Alabama. I do agree with the order because I think that, yes, all the conglomerate of what all could happen with strength of schedule, head to head matters. but there has to be a differentiator. And I think in that Texas Alabama conversation, that head-to-head is a differentiator. Now, some may say, well, what about Oregon? They lost to Washington and who's their best win? But Oregon's going to have chances to prove themselves as well.

And so for me, I think about, yes, what we look at right now and where the rankings are right now. But as this season continues this weekend, next weekend, the following weekend, all these scenes are able to differentiate themselves even more. And if the head-to-head is the only differentiator, I'm totally okay with that. Yeah, and I'm going to go opposite, Sam. I disagree just because what impressive win does Oregon have this year? And I know they went into Utah and they dominated the Uts. But I just think what Alabama and Texas has done this year has been more impressive. Of course, Texas has a high quality win over Alabama going into Tuscaloosa and having a phenomenal performance there.

And then Alabama, they have a couple of impressive wins this year as well, including against Ole Miss. But I just think what both of those teams have done this year is just more impressive than what Oregon has done to date. Heather? Guys, Alabama and Texas are both on a path straight to their respective conference championship games. Neither of them should lose. I would be shocked if even at the end of the day, as one lost conference champs, the committee did not continue to honor that head to head. I think that could be different for Oregon and Washington. One stumble by the Huskies and I think it opens the door for Oregon to move up because Jordan, even though they don't have as good of a resume, they have been passing the eye test with flying colors.

and I think Bonick should be at the top of everyone's Hivesman list this week. And we're going to take a look at the Allstate Playoff predictor in just a little while. In Alabama, it's interesting to see where ESPN analytics has them right now. Don't forget to vote at ESPN college football for which team you think will be the Dr. Pepper one final team using the hashtag one final team. Let's get to some other news around college football. One of the biggest stories we're following here on college football live is what's happening at Michigan, Ann Arbor, in the midst of the sign stealing allegations. Now, the NCAA is investigating in the Big Ten recently sent Michigan a notice of disciplinary action, which the school must respond to by today.

Now, taking a look at how we got to this point so far in the Michigan investigation on October 17th, an external investigation firm provided the NCAA with evidence of the Michigan sign stealing. Then on November 20th, Michigan staff for Connor Stallions was suspended with pay pending the NCAA. A's investigation. Just a few days later, ESPN reported Connor Stallions bought tickets for 12 of 13 Big Ten schools and four more out of conference schools. And on October 27th, the former Division 3 player and coach told ESPN he was compensated for recording future Michigan opponents. So a lot of back and forth. We bring in Pete Thammel now for more on this because Pete, I mentioned that Michigan is supposed to respond to the Big Ten's notice of disciplinary action by today. What can you tell us about when we're expecting to hear something and what happens after that? Yeah, some clarity, Kelsey, in the Big Ten's decision appears imminent, but today is not that day.

Michigan's response to the notice of discipline is due at the end of the day today. Sources have told me that the Big Ten is going to take, digest that information, see how Michigan responds to it. And the earliest we would get any type of punishment for Michigan would be tomorrow. Again, sources have told us that the most likely punishment is some type of suspension for coach Jim Carball. The length of that and what that looks like is still unclear and likely not decided on. We've also heard the college football playoff committee talk about it saying right now they're just looking at what happens on the field. We'll see what happens with those investigations. There's another allegation, though, because Michigan has responded saying that Ohio State Rutgers and Purdue shared the Wolverine signals in 2022.

too, a lot of back and forth in this, Pete. What can you tell us about what you're learning about that side of it in Michigan, what they've had to say? Well, that side of it, Kelsey, is a really interesting look into how conventional legal sign stealing works. And really, the Big Ten does not take these allegations particularly seriously as they are presented. What Michigan is alleged to have done is against NCAA rules.

It is in-person opponent scouting by a school, and it's also the use of electronics. This is viewed mostly as a diversionary tactic to what has been alleged at Michigan. The core of what Michigan has been alleged to do really hasn't been rebutted by the school. It's an elaborate scheme led by Connor Scalions to both electronically scout schools and capture signals and do so in person. And there's been nothing for Michigan that has really tamped down or put in context what Stallions is alleged to have done. Looks like we will have some answers as early as tomorrow. As you mentioned, this, of course, all happening as they get ready to play their first ranked opponent top 10 matchup with Penn State this weekend. Pete Thammel with the latest here on College Football Live.

Meanwhile, on the other side of this break, we're talking quarterbacks, including Michigan's quarterback to J.J. McCarthy. The competition is heating up for the top one. Jordan Reed gives us some insight. College Football Live is presented by Zillow. and in part by Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen When you're flying Emirates business class enjoying a good night's rest in your lie flat seat you'll see that your vacation isn't really over

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Donate today at camh.ca.ca.givings Tuesday. To college football live, presented by Zillow. Let's get some big quarterback news out of Baton Rouge as LSU quarterback Jaden Daniels, who was in the concussion protocol, is expected to return to practice in a limited role on Wednesday and then move to full contact Thursday if things go well, according to his head coach. Let's get to Jordan Reitz's quarterback's hotboard now. He's got the top 16 ranked on ESPN.com. But Jordan, let's go top five now, starting with number five. Who you got? It's going to be Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, who's been one of the biggest surprises of this season, came into the year, not even knowing if he was going to be the quarterback one. He's only had nine starts this year, which is a really small sample size, but over

2,700 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and only four interceptions, 72% completion percentage. He's shown a lot of promise and really climbing up draft boards. Number four, I'm going to go to JJ McCarthy, the quarterback out of Michigan, and he's the one if I had to pick is going to raise up boards. But he has so much weighing on these last few weeks of the season. You talk about a matchup against Penn State this week, which is going to be big for him, and then also against Ohio State. So keep an eye on JJ McCarthy, who's having a phenomenal year.

I'm going to go over to Colorado now with Chador Sanders of Colorado. And I'm really intrigued by Chador. I don't think we're going to see him in the 2024 draft. So look for him to be a contender for the number one overall pick in 2025. But you talk about poise, ball placement, and accuracy with him. A very high football IQ. does need to get the ball out a little bit quicker. All of us know that Colorado's offensive line hasn't been the best this year,

over 45 sacks and pressure rate on 41% of his dropback. So it needs to clean up some of those in that area. But let's head over to North Carolina now with Drake May. Another player that I'm really intrigued by, you're going to hear the name Justin Herbert in comparison with him a lot. A phenomenal deep pass, a very underrated athlete. He has about five or six plays a game that he reminds you of where he could potentially be the number one overall pick in this draft class.

Now I'm going to head over to the candidate that still is the consensus favorite to be the number one overall pick in this year's draft. And that is Caleb Williams of USC. That is just a wizard inside and outside of the pocket. Just the next person up in the pipeline of Lincoln Riley quarterbacks, 71% completion percentage from the pocket, which is up from 70% this year. Over 2,900 passing yards. So I'm really intrigued by Caleb Williams. And if the drive was today, he still would be the consensus favorite to be the number one overall pick. Jordan, earlier in our conversations, you talked about Caleb Williams and Drake May as 1A and 1B.

Why the difference between the two? What separates them? Well, I think with Caleb, he just gives you so much more inside and outside of the pocket. But with Drake May, there's a lot to like. But with Caleb, he just adds another extension to the game. But the thing that Caleb does have to learn is that sometimes you have to keep the Superman cape in the closet just because he wants to make so many off-script plays. And this is something that you see very frequently with Lincoln Riley quarterbacks. we saw with Kyle Murray and Baker Mayfield to an extent.

He wants to make the home run play every single time. So it's okay to hit singles and doubles sometimes as opposed to going for the home run every single time. But that's not to say that Drake May isn't closing the gap. I definitely think he is. That's why I think it's more so 1A and 1B. And you talk to people in the league. There's some people that do prefer Drake May at this point. It's going to be interesting because it is seem like a back and forth battle between those two.

But you also mentioned J.J. McCarthy. You said he's the quarterback you think can really raise his stock. Why is that? Just because you talk about everything that JJ brings to the table, I think he has a much better arm than people give him credit for. Phenomenal off of play action, 82% completion percentage. So he complements that Michigan run game really well.

But he hasn't played anybody this year. Everybody is waiting to see how he plays against Penn State this week. He has Ohio State in a couple weeks. And if Michigan does end up making the college football playoff, he's going to have an opportunity to rebound from what we saw last year. We're going to get to see what he's able to do against Penn State number 10 team in the country, top 10 battle this weekend. and so that will be exciting.

On the other side of this break, we're also going to talk about the playoff implications of that game. What happens if, in fact, Penn State can pull off the upset at home? What if Georgia loses to Ole Miss? Could we get chaos? And how would it affect the college football playoff?

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According to our analytics, three of the top five remaining games with the highest playoff leverage. We'll take place this weekend. Michigan at Penn State. No surprise there. Ole Miss at Georgia and also Texas at TCU. Our analytics give the Nittany. Lions, a 51% chance to knock off third ranked Michigan this week.

But we've got the Allstate Playoff predictor here now. And of course, you can click different scenarios to see what happens if Ohio State wins out, if Florida State wins out, or let's say Ohio State doesn't win out. And instead, it's Michigan that wins out 99% chance, 98% chance. Let's bring in the guys. And Sam, I want to start with you. We mentioned some of the big games this weekend. Throw out a scenario to me or something you have a question about.

And I'm going to be your Vanna White. and we'll see what the board tells. Well, what I want to see Kelsey or Vanna, what I want to see is what happens for Georgia this weekend based off of the outcome of their game, winner loss. I appreciate that. You can call me, Vanna, because I wore my sparkly shoes today because I knew we were doing this.

Okay, so Georgia, top 10 battle. You see right now, I think this is interesting to you guys. ESPN Analytics, 41% chances it stands right now for Alabama, even though they have that one loss over Georgia. But let's say Georgia wins the game against Ole Miss this weekend. Those chances go from 40 to 49% for them to make the college football playoff. If they lose this weekend, massive implications. They drop down to just a 17% chance to make the college football playoff.

Obviously, a lot depend on what happens they're on out with Ole Miss. And, of course, what happens with Alabama and who plays in the SEC championship. But interesting one there. If they went out, obviously Georgia a lock for the college football playoff. Let's take a look at another one. Jordan, what's your thoughts? Ms. Vanna, am I able to buy a vowel here? You can buy a vowel.

What vowel would you like? I'm just kidding. I want to know what happens. They have games that are coming against Penn State and then also Ohio State. So what happens if Michigan loses? So you're kind of buying a vowel because you said Ohio State. But let's actually talk about this Penn State Michigan game because this is a big one. You see right now 43% chance for them to make the playoff.

Let's say Michigan takes care of business, answers all the questions, toughest game they've played so far. 43% chance to make the playoff now. If they win this game this weekend, jumps up to a 69% chance to make the playoff and a 22% chance to make the title. Now, if they lose the game this weekend, that chance also falls down to a 17% chance. So it could be interesting to see, obviously, if they went out 99% chance. I don't know.

Let's do something crazy. They went out. Georgia wins out. Florida State wins. They lose. What about Oregon? What if Oregon wins out, Kelsey? Oregon, let me give you one more.

And then we got a promo to get to. If Oregon wins out, 74% chance. So not as high as the other ones, obviously, with that loss. Let's see what Alabama if they went out. 94% chance. You can play with all of the scenarios on your own. All-State playoff predictor. Definitely an interesting one.

You guys, we'll see what happens this weekend. Those are some of the really big games. Maybe we'll play Van Nu White every week for you guys. I don't know who's Pat Sejack. Is that Sam? Is that Jordan? We'll sort it out next week. Thanks for hanging out on College Mobile Live.