College Football Live - Stars of the SEC

Episode Date: November 7, 2024

Victoria Arlen, Sam Acho and Trevor Matich are back with another Thursday edition of College Football Live. The crew discusses the upcoming big weekend for the SEC as Alabama gets ready to take on LSU and Georgia faces Ole Miss. Plus, Joe Fortenbaugh returns to the show with his picks of the week. All that and more right here on CFB Live! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Welcome into college football live. I'm Victoria Arlearn alongside Sam Ocho and Trevor Madage. We have a huge weekend ahead in the SEC, but before we get to that, we've got breaking news about a big name SEC head coach. Now, after much speculation, Billy Napier will continue to lead Florida, according to A.D. Scott Strickland. Now, Napier is 15 and 18 in his third season with the Gators, and after several early losses, he faced increased scrutiny over his job performance, but more Recent wins over UCF in Mississippi State and close games against Tennessee and Georgia seem to quiet the critics. Now, Napier's Gators have played in some tight games as of late. However, in their last four games played, their defense has ranked amongst the top in the SEC.

And in those games, they are allowing a QBR of 38 the best in the SEC. Now, keep in mind, they've played against Nico Iamaleava and Carson Beck in some of the better quarterbacks in the FBS. So let's bring in ESPN.com writer Andrea Adelson. And Andrea, what went into the decision to keep Napier? What stood out to me from the announcement that Scott Strickland made was the need for a disciplined, stable approach. And that underscores what sources have told me going back to August. This is a program that wanted Billy Napier to succeed. And even after that one and two start that you mentioned, sources told me they wanted to stay patient.

They just needed to see some improvement from this team. And that's exactly what has happened over the last eight weeks. You mentioned some of those close losses. They also had a big win over Kentucky. And they've seen the development of quarterback DJ Lagway, a huge player for this team moving forward. And so the reason to go ahead and do this now, I was told today, was to end that speculation about Billy Napier's job security so they can now focus on the rest of the season, also keep that recruiting class intact, and make sure they retain their key players on the roster starting with Lagway. That patience is for sure paying off. Now, be sure to check out Andrea's article on ESPN.com.

Thank you so much, Andrea. Now, guys, what are your thoughts on this decision? I'll start with you, Sam. I think it's the right one, because if I'm a recruit for Florida, let's say I'm getting recruited, I'm watching their games, and yes, I see there's four losses, but they're playing tight games. The four losses are to four of the top 15 teams. Think about number two, Georgia, number four, Miami.

Think about number seven, Tennessee, number 15 A&M. And oh, by the way, those early losses that looked horrible don't look that bad. You have a young quarterback and DJ Lagway, a program that's actually ascending, at least from what it looks like. And also, you have a team that has a chance to play premier games. This weekend, Florida plays Texas. And if I'm Texas, I'm a little bit worried because this Florida team has looked so much better than their record shows. And so I think it's the right decision based off the patience that the head coach has been given, but also based off of the progression of the football team.

And it has a lot to do also with the locker room. And are they buying into the coach? Are they listening to the coach? Are they practicing and playing hard for the coach? And all the things that you mentioned are indications that they are. You look at Florida's last game against Georgia. It was tied midway through the fourth quarter, even though Florida was down to their third string quarterback because of injury.

And so I think the administration can look at Billy Napier as the head coach and say, look, things are not great this year as far as the record is concerned. But they've had injuries. They've had a brutal schedule. but the guys are responding to this coach. And as long as that continues to happen, he continues to stay. And there's that idea of the cost of starting over it. That's what you think, okay, let's say we get rid of of Billy Napier.

It's like, oh, who do you go with? And what happens to the recruits? What happens to DJ Ladway? There's a cost associated with starting over. And so there's a thread that's been built in positive news for Florida. And let that adversity just build and build and get stronger. All right, let's keep things rolling in the SEC. Time now for our weekend lineup.

Brought to you by Wendy Sossy Nugs. It is going to be an SEC showdown in Death Valley. where number 11, Alabama faces number 15 LSU. A virtual elimination game when it comes to the CFB. The Crimson Tide are 8 and 12 in their last 10 meetings against the Tigers, but they're just one and two on the road this season. But here's Coach Kelly on what's different

facing Bama QB Jalen Milrow this year. They've had all spring and they've settled on a system with a starting quarterback. So it's consistency week in and week out. They're doing the same thing with him, week in and week out. So there's a comfort level within the offense. When we got to him last year, you weren't really sure what you were going to get. It was a little bit of everything. And now there's a consistency within their offensive structure and there's a comfort level in terms of

what he's doing. Trevor, how do you slow down Milrow? You keep him in the pocket. Milro does everything well. Something's exceptionally well. We've talked a lot about how great he is at the deep pass about how great he is as a runner. So from a defensive standpoint, you can't let him have everything. You can't let him out of the pocket where he could run or throw and he can extend plays. You've got to keep him in the pocket and make him one dimensional, even though that dimension is very good as a deep passer. The thing about LSU's defense is they do one thing exceptionally well. They are among the SEC's leader in sacks, but they are last in the SEC in interceptions. And so to keep Milrow in the pocket, they have to slow down the pass rush, which gives Milrow

more time to torch that secondary, which hasn't been that affected. But the question I have for the LSU defense is, are they willing to be boring? Like, that's what do you have to be? If you want to be dominant in this game, you have to be boring. What do I mean by that? At a coach in college, Mack Brown would always say consistently good to be great. LSU has not been consistent defensively, their last game versus A&M. They were dominant in the first half, plus 136 when it came to yardage.

They were doing their jobs. Everyone was in the right gap at the right time. But then third quarter came and fourth quarter came. And not only did you see turnovers on the offensive side as well, but you saw, the lack of discipline defensively. And so are you willing to make the boring plays over and over and

over again or will you start to press? Will you start to try and get that interception or maybe man, I'm tired of trying to keep Jaylor in the pocket? Let me just rush up field and try and go make a plan. All of a sudden, he escapes the pocket with his legs and runs or maybe makes a big play downfield. So are you willing to be boring if you're LSU?

Let's talk about discipline. So Trevor, that's been a big thing you've talked about when it comes to Alabama, how they've just not been disciplined. What do you need to see differently from them? They need to play cleaner. The thing about this LSU, especially on offense, LSU offense, is that if Bama misses assignments, if their technique isn't good, if their eyes aren't in the right place, they're in a lot of trouble because Garrett Nussmeyer, the LSU quarterback, is a future NFL guy and he can find those mistakes.

And they need to play cleaner when it comes to penalties, because they are last in all of the power four in penalties committed per game. Bama commits more penalties per game than any other team in the Power 4 conferences all but four in the entire world of FBS football. And so these are things when you talk about items of discipline, unnecessary penalties, like pre-snap and post-snap penalties, which they've had. When you talk about alignment assignment technique, these are things that Bama needs to clean up, because if they don't, they are facing an opponent that can burn them for it. And we do not want to see that burn in Death Valley.

And this is going to be a big one. And game day will be at that game. LSU is going to be essentially a virtual elimination game and the college football playoff is a big one this Saturday in Baton Rouge catch it all starting at 9 a.m. Saturday. But let's take a look at another big matchup in the SEC this weekend. Georgia and Ole Miss with a QB battle, but it's not what you think. We got Carson Beck and Jackson Dart, but they're coming off kind of night and day type performances.

Beck is looking to rebound after a tough three interception game versus Florida. Well, Dart is looking to keep on rolling after Dishing out. out six touchdowns and zero interceptions versus Arkansas. And here's Kirby discussing his quarterback's recent play. I just think first and foremost, he's done a tremendous job overcoming any mistakes he's had in the ability to go out and close things. There's a quality now that when you look across the NFL, you look across all sports, you look across the quarterback position.

Resiliency is a huge trait. And the one thing that this guy has done is when he's had to, he's gone out with his back against the wall and made some throws. He's overcome some, some, some bad throws earlier in the game. But, you know, I think he continues to show that. I think that's a good thing. Now, I want to note something that as far as resiliency goes in the first half of games, Beck threw more interceptions than touchdowns versus the second half where he's thrown

11 touchdowns and just four interceptions. But Trevor, can you break it down for us? I can. You look at quarterback rating where 100 is perfect, 50 is average. When he's not under pressure, he has a QBR of 83. Really good. When he is under pressure, it drops to five worst in the SEC. The problem is the swings between the two.

And so when it's easy, it's easy. When he's got protection, everything works like clockwork. Now, top of the screen, this will be his first progression to his left. And as he's looking over there, he sees that that guy is covered. So while that's happening, his second option, the middle of the field still has to run 10 yards before he makes his break. That's designed to come open later in the pass pattern so that by the time the quarterback gets there is the second option, now he's ready for the ball.

When there's no pressure, then Beck has in complete command of this. But now he's going to have late pressure. And as happens too often in this situation, he'll see a receiver but lose track of what the defense is doing. He thought this guy was open when he released the ball, but because the defense was already converging turns out he's not quite so open. And now, Ole Miss leads the nation in sacks, and it's partly because of little things that they do. Here the little thing is step up before going inside. That holds the tackle's attention away from the real danger coming from behind.

So the tackle is looking at that guy on the line. He can't even see the guy coming from behind until a beat too late to do anything about it. So it is sack, bumble, touchdown, Ole Miss. know that Ole Miss with 14 different guys having sacks this year is going to come from every direction to try to force Peck into proving that he's improved his performance under pressure. Now, speaking of Ole Miss, Sam, on the other side, how does Ole Miss capitalize on Georgia's flaws? Well, they do exactly what we heard Trevor just say. They force Carson Beck into bad decisions where plays aren't open. So we're going to see Carson Beck right here in the middle of your screen. He's your quarterback. But I want you not to keep your eyes on Carson Beck.

keep your eyes on some of these defenders right here and watch where they go. So watch where they go as this play begins. Carson Beck is going to go through his progression. Notice where he's looking first. First, he's looking this way, right? And he's going to fast forward, boom. He looks the middle of the field, right?

But Carson Beck thinks this pass is going to be open. You say, okay, man, I'll be able to loop it right there. That's not what happens. Remember those two players to keep your eyes on? Watch what happens if I could just have you just watch him and watch him as this play proceeds. Either one of those guys could have picked it off. not one of those guys, the guy covering the receiver could have picked it off as well.

So that's play number one, the mistake. But then we talk about some of that pressure and the decisions. This is going to be essentially a double move, right? A slant and a go, a sluggo. But it's not going to be open early. It's going to be open late. The only issue with it being open late is that I want you to keep your eyes on the sluggo, right? There's going to be not just one, not just two, but three defenders that are going to be

available for this sluggo. So the play's not going to be open. It's going to be an interception. But I'm going to go back just a little bit because. what's going to happen as well, if I can go back a little bit more, is that you're going to see pressure from the inside. Inside pressure, drop back, drop back. And so Carson Beck is not open.

He gets hit. He gets pressured. Ball gets picked off by one of those dropping linebackers. And so, yes, you want to force Carson Beck into bad decisions, but more so you want to force him to throw the ball when he doesn't have to because he'll force it to the other team. And what's crazy is on both sides. We have Carson Beck, who's coming off of his.

second straight three interception game while Jackson Dart has three interceptions total this season. So it will be a Qie battle, but we'll see how that goes. All right. Now this game is part of our SEC on ABC college football lineup on Saturday. We also have Texas and Florida at noon. And then we cap the night off in Death Valley, LSU hosting Alabama, all on ABC and ESPN Plus. All right. Still to come. There's a stampede coming in all teams in the Big 12. Better beware of the Buffaloes. After coming off a two straight wins, Colorado has their eyes.

set on Texas Tech. Next, we discuss the ripple effect that can result from that game coming up. And also, we've got Joe Fortinbaugh here, and none of us really know what to do with our hands or any of that. So get ready. He's going to get us ready for the weekend. But college football live is presented by ice cold Dr. Pepper. College football. It's a pepper thing. From that first coffee of the day to dropping off your dry cleaning on the way. From stepping onto the subway to opening your doors to your first customer of the day. We're here to power you along the way. Maneris, powering Canadian commerce.

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Georgia Tech's out of timeouts with 72 seconds to go. I don't know what Miami is doing. You should not be running the football. You should be taken in need. Here's Cheney, tackled, and the ball popped out. Georgia Tech has it with 26 seconds left. Here's King from the pocket, flush to his right with six, five. Going to loop it down field.

And my coaching mistakes at this level that I have ever seen in my lifetime. Hugh the applause, not for that game, but for our betting, our favorite betting analyst Joe Fortinbaugh back with us. He's getting us ready for the weekend. Thank you for coming out today. Always nice to see you all. Nice to see you guys as well. Thank you for having to see you. It's great to see you. Now what's not great was that Miami Georgia Tech game from last year. They're playing each other again this weekend. Should we be on upset alert? I don't know if we'd go so far as to say upset alert. I do like the Georgia Tech side here. You're catching about 11 points in this game. The spot favors the yellow jackets. They're off a by. They're at home. They haven't missed a spread at home in any of their

six games. Here comes Miami. They like to play with fire, as we all know, very explosive on offense. Defense opens up an opportunity for a late backdoor cover with Georgia Tech. So I'd be looking at the yellow jackets here. But defense also Miami's struggling defense, and Trevor made this point earlier, opens up the opportunity for Cam Warren's Miami offense to stay on the field and keep on pushing the ball down field. We saw against Duke. It was close early. Then all of a sudden, Miami just started scoring and scoring and scoring. And so that's why I lean more towards Miami and this one because of the potency of their offense. Coming out feisty today, I Very funny. It's the red suit. All right. Let's go. Let's go Colorado, Texas Tech, and let's talk about the impact of this game and what draws you to this one.

Colorado's intriguing to me. They open as a two-point favorite. Money comes pouring it on the Buffalo's moves right through the key number of three, up to four. Why? Again, the situation, something you and I used to talk about on ESPN Bet Live last year. Colorado, two weeks to get ready for this game. Texas Tech coming off a massive win over Ohio State, Iowa State. Now you have to turn around. You have to emotionally, mentally get. yourself ready for another big game. Defense is going to be the key here. People don't realize how good Colorado's defense has been. 30th in the country in scoring, whereas Texas Tech 100 second in scoring defense this year. Yeah, and I like that pick because of the defense of Texas Tech. Colorado has sprouted a running game, which is weird. They're still last in the Big 12 in rushing attempts, still last in yards per attempt. But the last two weeks, they've kind of blossomed as runners. They've actually run the ball more than they've passed it, their last two games, and their running backs have averaged about four yards of carry,

which is completely uncharacteristic of how they began this season. And so the balance helps Shadur Sanders. He doesn't have to now carry the entire offense. The running game can help to keep that pass rush away from him, which is new for Colorado. And one thing that's new for Colorado was this opportunity to make the college football playoff. And why is that opportunity there? Because they have a chance to win the Big 12.

Right now they're the third ranked team in the Big 12 behind BYU. in Iowa State. Now here's the thing. Iowa State's going to go on at the end of the season and play Kansas State. Colorado's play Kansas State, loss of Kansas State. But also Colorado has a chance to beat Texas Tech this weekend, which Texas Tech beat Iowa State. And so when it comes down to some of these tiebreakers, if it does in fact become a tie, three-way tie between these teams, maybe a two-way tie, there is a pathway for Colorado to make the Big 12 championship. And if they make that Big 12 championship and win, they would be in the college football playoff. And so the whole point is this. The 6th and 2 Colorado team has a pathway to success. That's pretty clear right in front of them.

Nothing like Big 12 chaos. And Coach Prime talked about that chaos, but also said rankings are like a tease. They can really fool you. So keeping that mindset focus too. But there's a huge, there's massive SEC showdown games going down this weekend with playoff implications. What do you got for us? I would like to have action on all these games. I'm very excited this weekend. Let's start with the LSU Alabama game, the one everyone's going to be looking at. I would take LSU plus the three here. Great spot for Brian Kelly as a home dog in his career. 17 and 6 against the spread. That's a hit rate of 73%. LSU has had some trouble with mobile quarterbacks,

but they have two weeks to get ready for Milro. Under 54.5 points in the Georgia Ole Miss game. Don't be fooled by what happened last week with Ole Miss hanging 60 plus on Arkansas. Against the rest of the SEC opponents they played, 24 points per game. The Georgia defense should have some success against that banged up Ole Miss offensive line. And then South Carolina, that defense can eat, son. defense can eat. Vandy's O' Wine is banged up. Pavia's banged up. As great as Vanderbilt has been

this year, I think SC goes in and gets him in that spot. Oh, I hear what you're saying, but I'm not believing it. I actually have a tailgate tip for you. If you'll stay with us after the break about Diego Pavia and this and this offense. I mean, now I guess I have to. Okay, well, we'll see about that. Thank you, Joe. All right, let's take a look at one final team vote brought to you by Dr. Pepper. We asked who will be the final team and the CFP and fans have spoken. It's going to be Oregon with 37% of the vote. Well deserved. Fire up your motorcycle, Ducks fans.

All right, coming up, Tailgate Tips is back. We'll get you ready and in the know with some fun facts ahead of this crazy jam-packed college football weekend. Simons is a magic in your time of the fair. Millie unide of the cado and hotent of decoration festive for watching your decorette and the boasts psalm. De Nouveauvin'n.

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slash business coverage. College Football Live is presented by ice cold Dr. Pepper. College Football, it's a pepper thing. Have you ever gone to a tailgate and realized you don't have anything to contribute to the discussion? Well, we here on College Football Live have something for you, and we call it Tailgate Tips, where we give you some necessary tips of knowledge to sound smarter and impress your friends every Saturday. You can thank you later. It's that time to sound smarter at your tailgate.

So Trevor, we're going to start with you. My tailgate tip is watch the Penn State running game this week against Washington. Last week against Ohio State, their leading rusher of Penn State was their tight end with 47 yards. Second leading Russia was their quarterback, Drew Aller, who's not mobile anyway, and he was working on a knee injury. Their running backs couldn't run. In order for Penn State to get to where they want to go, which is to make noise in the playoffs, they can't get stuffed by better. defenses. Okay. All right. Well, mine is not all three lost teams are the same. 13 three lost teams have finished in the top 10 in the final CFP rankings. And looking at this week in

particular, LSU has won 15 straight night games at Death Valley, but Alabama hasn't had more than two losses in a season and 13 straight seasons. The longest streak in SEC history, so Bama fans don't lose hope. But if there is a loss on Saturday, Heather Dinnich did inform us yesterday on champ drive that a third loss for Bama wouldn't eliminate them, but LSU might need to be a little worried. But thanks to that win in Georgia, Alabama's okay. Yeah, and for my, I'm going to need the football. I'm going to need Joe Fortin by to hop in. Come on, Joe. Can you catch? Huh, who would have thought? Can you catch? Of course. You made a call in our earlier block about Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt may be losing. I have a stat for you. Diego Pavia has been a nightmare for defenses

that love to send pressure. His 74.8 QBR this season when pressured is the fourth best. mark in a season since pressures were tracked across FBS in 2018. By the way, the previous four seasons that yielded the QBR above 71 pressure came from three Heisman winners and a quarterback whose receiver won the award. It's really good stat. I'll toss that back to you. Still going with South Carolina, my three and a half. It's not. Let me see how you made that guy. Let me see your hand. It's like it's like stick. I can't. All right. On that note, on that note, no, Trevor, Sam. I'm Victoria. Thanks for watching college football live.

Enjoy your games this weekend.