Consider This from NPR - A new Israel-Hamas cease-fire talk starts this week. Is anything different?

Episode Date: August 14, 2024

So often, telling the story of the Israel-Hamas war is reduced to a catalog of numbers.But this war is much more than all of that. It is the daily life of the people living in the midst of the war that has now been raging for 10 months.The war has also come to encompass a sense of insecurity that permeates, as the humanitarian crisis worsens in Gaza through famine, unclean water and dwindling resources. Pair that with the prospect of a wider regional conflict with Iran that looms nearby.On Thursday, U.S. and Arab mediators will launch new talks to attempt a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas. But hopes for tensions to be diffused are not high.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

For months, hopes of a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas have been raised, and then dashed, and then raised again. In February, We're close. We're close. We're not done yet. And my hope is by next Monday, we'll have a ceasefire. Then in May, This is truly a decisive moment. Israel's made their proposal. Hamas says it wants to cease fire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it. And then now, this moment, U.S. and Arab mediators say reaching a deal is urgent. Iran's threat to attack Israel looms, and so does the possibility of a wider regional war. Leaders are scheduled to meet on Thursday to try and push forward a ceasefire agreement,

one that would end 10 months of war and perhaps prevent an even bigger one. President Biden told reporters earlier this week that he is determined to finish the deal. It's getting hard. We'll see what Iran does and we'll see what happens if we're going to attack. But I'm not giving up. Consider this. It's been more than 10 months of war between Israel and Hamas. Could a ceasefire finally happen? From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang. It's Consider This from NPR.

So often, telling the story of the Israel-Hamas war is reduced to a catalog of numbers. Mass barrage of 170 rockets into Israel. More than 100 people were killed. Deadliest day that Gaza has seen. More than 700 people killed. One of the deadliest days from the Israeli military side since October 7th. But this war is obviously so much more than all of that. It is the daily life of the people living in the midst of the war that's been raging for 10 months, the sense of insecurity they feel. It's the humanitarian crisis that only gets worse in Gaza and the prospect of a wider regional conflict with Iran.

Thursday, the U.S. and Arab mediators are launching new talks to try to finally secure a ceasefire. We wanted to take a few minutes to get a big picture look at whether a ceasefire is possible and how ordinary people are coping after 10 months of war. To do that, we're joined now by NPR international correspondent Daniel Lester. And hi, Daniel. Hi, Elsa. You know, we've heard President Biden say many times that he's confident a ceasefire is just around the corner, but ceasefire talks have stalled for months. What should we expect this time around? Well, this time around, U.S. and Arab mediators say it is urgent. They think it's a ticking

clock here because they're hoping that a ceasefire in Gaza can dissuade Iran from its threat to attack Israel to retaliate for recent assassination. They want to prevent a wider regional war and doing that through a Gaza ceasefire. So you have this dramatic moment with a military buildup as the US has sent warships and combat jets to the region to fend off a possible Iranian attack. And at the same time, we see this dramatic diplomatic push with senior Israeli officials headed to Qatar, the CIA chief expected there too. And they're going to try to work out some of the unresolved issues of this framework of a ceasefire deal to try to get a hostage and prisoner exchange, the return of Palestinian civilians to North Gaza, and eventually the end of the war.

The mediators say that the issues are resolvable, but ultimately it comes down to whether the leaders of Israel and Hamas want the end of the war now. Well, let's start with Israel. Let's talk about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Does he actually want to end the war in Gaza, you think? Well, for a long time now, he has said he will not succumb to pressure to end the war. And he's standing up to his security chiefs here. All of them say now is the time to strike a deal with Hamas, to shift the focus to Iran and to Hezbollah. Also, you have the far right in Netanyahu's government that wants to prolong the army campaign in Gaza, part of its ultra-nationalist ideology. Netanyahu also may have his own personal interests

in delaying a deal. A deal with Hamas could lead to new elections in Israel, which could lead to him losing power, and even could lead to a national state inquiry into the October 7th attacks. And Netanyahu is likely to go down in history as being responsible for Israel's worst security failure in history. He wants to delay that as much as possible. Well, Daniel, when you're talking to just, you know, Israelis on the street, what do they want to see 10 months into this war? They want to see an end. I mean, they're exhausted. People are desperate, feeling like there's no end in sight.

There's a lot of anxiety about what will happen with Hezbollah and with Iran. And many Israelis are still displaced from their homes near the Lebanon border because of a fear of an attack. And some of them say actually they prefer to see a war with Hezbollah. They think that's the best option so that they can go back home and feel secure. Israeli leaders have said all along they prefer a diplomatic deal with regards to Hezbollah. So you see how many Israelis really are shifting their focus away from the Gaza war. And a recent poll actually found that a small majority, about 54% of Israelis polled, said they want to see a deal with Hamas to release all the hostages and to end the war permanently, not just temporarily.

Well, let's look at Gaza because NPR producer Anas Baba is in Gaza. He's been documenting life there for the last 10 months of this war. What has Anas been telling you about what it's like to be in Gaza day after day after day right now. He recently met a family sheltering on the side of a road and the family's experience, what they told him, tells you so much about what it is like in Gaza now. This is a family that's been displaced 15 times inside of Gaza since the war began because Israel has repeatedly urged civilians to leave areas ahead of military operations. They're sent to what Israel deems as safe zones. Sometimes those safe zones then are hit in Israeli airstrikes. There have been a lot of Israeli strikes on schools in Gaza that have turned into shelters and many deadly strikes as well. But the father of this family that our producer Anas Baba met

said he survived a bombing. He saw people dying in front of his eyes. So he took out a loan to hire a driver to take his family to this roadside where they dug a hole for the toilet. He sends his kids to collect water. The mother of this family said she wishes her family and her kids would just die, that that would be a relief. Oh my God. Well, we spoke earlier about Netanyahu's possible motivations in this war. But what about the leader of Hamas? What does he want?

Yeah, the question is, does Hamas's leader, Yahya Sinwar, want to actually agree to a ceasefire deal now? You know, he's incommunicado. He's hiding. He's on Israel's kill list. So he is, in many senses, a mystery. Some analysts say that he actually may prefer to wait to see if Iran and Hezbollah actually do attack Israel after a pair of recent assassinations. He may want to see a regional war, and he may want to see more chaos to weaken Israel before he decides what to do with these talks. But really, Elsa, the stakes

could not be higher. You know, Palestinian civilians killed in recent airstrikes, they could be alive today if there were a ceasefire just days ago. And Israeli hostages are languishing and possibly dying in captivity. And there's a potential of a major attack on Israel that could spin out of control into a regional war. So a lot really is depending on these talks. Yeah. That is NPR's Daniel Estrin. Thank you so much, Daniel. You're welcome.

This episode was produced by Catherine Fink and Greg Dixon. It was edited by Courtney Dourning and Didi Skanky. Our executive producer is Sammy Yannickin. And one more thing before we go. You can now enjoy the Consider This newsletter. We still help you break down a major story of the day, but you'll also get to know our producers and hosts and some moments of joy from the All Things Considered team.

You can sign up at npr.org slash consider this newsletter. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang.