Consider This from NPR - A Third Pandemic Spring: How This One Will Be Different

Episode Date: March 15, 2022

In the U.S., with key COVID metrics trending rapidly downward, the pandemic's third spring is already looking very different. But concerns remain about future variants as China and Hong Kong battle new outbreaks.NPR's Tovia Smith reports on workers heading back to the office — where employers are figuring out how to give them new flexibility. NPR's Will Stone reports on a recent change to the way the CDC talks about COVID risk. More on that story here. NPR's Allison Aubrey has more on the battle over new COVID spending in Congress. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

In the dark days of January, when the U.S. was averaging more than half a million COVID cases a day, it was hard to be optimistic. But Dr. Bob Wachter was. I think the likeliest outcome for February and March is that we'll be in pretty good shape. This virus being milder than the prior variants could turn out to be very good news. That is what Wachter, who chairs the Department of Medicine at UC San Francisco, what he told me at the start of January. Well, we played that back for him eight weeks later. Usually when people play a clip, it's usually something you got wrong. So that was kind of nice. Wachter's prediction based on how Omicron had moved through South Africa was right. Now, in the U.S., on the cusp

of spring, new cases and rates of hospital admissions have plunged to lows not seen since last summer. At Wachter's own hospital in San Francisco, four to six weeks ago, we had about 125 COVID patients in the hospital. Today, we have about 20. So what happened? Well, Omicron moved really fast. Thousands of people did die each day in January and February, but that rate has fallen dramatically and many people remain protected, Wachter says, by vaccination, prior infection, or both. And obviously, the mother of all curveballs is the possibility of a variant that's better at its job than Omicron. But I think the next several months are going to be fine. Lower case loads, relatively little stress on our health care system,

nowhere near what we were seeing a couple of months ago. Consider this. In the U.S., this third pandemic spring will be different. We'll explain new thinking about risk from the CDC, a new emphasis on flexibility as more workers return to the office, and new concerns about an outbreak in China. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It is Tuesday, March 15th. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally, and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today or visit WISE.com. T's and C's apply.

It's Consider This from NPR. The headlines out of China this week are a reminder that the pandemic is not over. Breaking overnight, a sell-off in Hong Kong is major Chinese cities locked down to combat a COVID outbreak. We'll take you live to Beijing. That is how the week started, with four Chinese cities imposing lockdown measures, including Shenzhen. That is a major tech and finance hub and home to 17 million people. The city has shut down public transit and has ordered all non-essential businesses to suspend production or have employees work from home for a week. That followed a raging outbreak in nearby Hong Kong,

which now has some of the highest daily mortality rates in the world. So what's driving these outbreaks? Well, a few things. Both mainland China and Hong Kong have been following a zero COVID strategy, trying to avoid new cases completely. On Saturday, party officials reaffirmed their commitment to China's zero COVID policy. But that has left a lot of people with no immunity from prior infection. China also has an elderly population who are not well vaccinated, and the country has its own vaccine,

one seen as less effective than ones developed in the U.S. and Europe. For policy experts, all this is a reminder of the need, even as things improve in the U.S., to keep up global public health efforts, investing in surveillance, buying medicines and vaccines, both to help with outbreaks elsewhere and to be prepared for future variants. And we have to remember that Delta and Omicron that we've just suffered from, they came from overseas. Zeke Emanuel at the University of Pennsylvania spoke to NPR this week. We have an urgent need from our own self-interested standpoint to continue our work to fight COVID overseas. But soon the government won't be able to do that as well. The Biden administration warned

Tuesday that is because Congress has failed to authorize billions of dollars in new COVID spending. Without that money, the White House also warned it'll have to wind down a testing and treatment program for uninsured people starting next week. But Republicans in the Senate say they won't authorize more funding until they see records of how prior COVID funding has been spent. the situation in the u.s is of course very different from china here cities states and schools have been rolling back mask mandates by some estimates as many as 80 percent of americans have had prior infection which could offer them some protection from serious illness in the future. And after two years, more Americans are headed back to work. As NPR's Tovia Smith reports, companies and their employees are figuring it out as they go.

Driving into downtown Boston, it's almost like the old days, with no open parking spaces on the streets anymore, and even challenges finding a parking garage. It's full right now. It's actually full. Yeah, really. Seeing life return to the heart of Boston's financial district is a thrill for garage attendants Samrawit Mbaye. If you see people coming, you feel like you are live in real life and make you happy. Hi Denise, how are you? Good. It's legal secretary Maureen McLallan's second day back to work in one of Boston's tallest skyscrapers. After two years working from home, returning to the office is like a homecoming. Everybody was hugging each other. Oh, it's just

such a blessing to be back. I missed everybody. It's good for the firm too, McLellan says, because she'll be a lot more productive working in person with the attorney she supports. It's hard doing email, but if I can actually go into his office and I'll stand there and go, okay, I'll tap my foot. I need the answers. He has to answer me. For McLellan, the upsides far outweigh even her hour-long commute and having to get up three hours earlier to shower and dress. I have to get used to wearing heels again. I'm in my flats right now. Definitely it's been an ordeal. 27-year-old marketing analyst Pragedesh Kalaivanan doesn't think it's worth it to come back to the office, where he's often less productive.

Like this morning, I think we spent about half an hour discussing coffee alternatives. Like these mushroom blends and like these cacao alternatives. Working from home, he says, allows him better focus and flexibility. Sometimes I don't feel like working. Maybe in the afternoons and I used to take a quick nap at home and I would work like after dinner when I want to do it, when I'm most creative because it's part of my job. Kaleivonin's firm is one of a growing number adopting a hybrid model. Companies from American Express to Meta and Citigroup, who are calling more workers back on site this month, are also allowing some remote days. They're all too aware that requiring

workers to come in every day may actually end up pushing them out the door. Attorney Brian Palmucci in Boston for a court appearance is among those happy to just meet people on Zoom instead of in person. I'm kind of an introvert, so, you know, less human interaction sometimes can be a good thing. Plus, he says, COVID is still a concern. I have two young kids, and I think the long-term health ramifications of COVID are unknown. And so it's a risk I'm not willing to take. But Andy Waugh, managing director at a large insurance broker, says coming back at least part-time is critical, especially for young and new workers.

It's important, he says, for training, for employee advancement, and for company culture. How we operate, what our ethos is, how to do their jobs, how to treat clients. They've got to learn all that, and they won't see it from their kitchen. For now, Wah says, coming in is still optional. Just about a third showed up for day one and far less for day two. But even that is a boon for the restaurants and cafes in town, which have been struggling. At one nearby place, assistant manager Cesar Jordan says business spiked 30 percent in a week.

We are happy for that because we are hiring a lot of people back like we think opportunities. And those employees, Jordan says, are more than happy to commute into the city for work. Thank you. NPR's Tovia Smith. As more people shift back to office work, the CDC is shifting the way it talks about COVID risk. Specifically, the agency has changed the way it measures COVID levels in a given area, signaling a change in how the U.S. plans to navigate the pandemic. As NPR's Will Stone reports, there are questions about how helpful the change will be. It was like the CDC was painting

its COVID map with an entirely new palette. Gone were the huge patches of bright red, indicating high levels across much of the U.S. Instead, there was an inviting mix of green and yellow, a sign of low or medium COVID levels. Madison County, Iowa underwent this transformation from red to green that left Cindy Watson totally confused. She's 61 and a professor of math and science. And if I'm confused, holy cow, everybody else has got to be really confused. The change in color came with a change in guidance. Americans in low and medium counties could now shed their masks. And all of a sudden, the CDC said, hey, you can unmask. OK, based on what?

Cindy Watson is right to be confused, says Jessica Malati-Rivera, who's an epidemiologist at the Pandemic Prevention Institute. That is a perfect example of a situation that is not actually low risk. This is what happened. The CDC adjusted how it calculates the level of COVID in different communities. Before, counties were ranked by the number of infections. Now, it's mostly tied to hospital admissions and how many beds are filled with COVID-19 patients. Cases do get factored in, but the CDC has raised the threshold substantially. A county can be green if it has under 200 cases per 100,000

people in the past week, which is a lot higher than it was before. Here's Rivera again. It's honestly shocking. What it looks like is quite literally a changing of thresholds in order to justify a policy that I think assumes way too much risk. But the CDC says there's good reason to shift the focus to severe disease and keeping hospitals from being overwhelmed. After all, cases don't mean what they did two years ago. Vaccines and immunity from prior infections are keeping many people who catch the virus out of the hospital. And there's another goal to make things simple and clear for Americans. Knowing the COVID-19 community level in your area... That's a CDC scientist pitching the new map in a recent informational video.

But some experts say this is not the best way for an individual to gauge their risk of catching the virus. CDC is putting a lot of weight on preventing hospitalizations, and that's really important. Dr. Jeff Duchin, the health officer for Seattle and King County. However, different individuals may put more weight than CDC did on simply preventing infection. This is why Duchin thinks the CDC guidance is better suited for public health agencies like his, not the average person who's just trying to figure out how worried should I be going to the grocery store or the gym. For that, cases do matter a lot. And hospital numbers aren't a real-time reflection of disease. They tend to trail infections by about a week.

Josh Solomon is an infectious disease modeler at Stanford. He says it could take a while for a county to move into the high red category. What I worry about is that this switch is going to be too late to prevent a lot of illness and death. Because it's only in the red that the CDC tells people to take meaningful action, like wearing a face mask. Up to that point, people who are at high risk, like the immunocompromised, have to decide for themselves whether to take extra precautions. It really does continue to shift the emphasis of protection as being an individual level response as opposed to a collective responsibility. But Dr. Jay Varma at the Weill Cornell Center for Pandemic Prevention and Response says this kind of transition happens all the time in public health. I am OK with the decision to shift from a primarily collective responsibility to an individual one as long as government

continues to do its part. Meaning people who do want to be cautious need resources like tests, high-quality masks, and clear messaging. NPR's Will Stone. And for more on that changing CDC guidance, including a look at how the agency's old maps look next to the new ones, there's a link in our episode notes. You can also find a story there from NPR's Alison Aubrey about the fight in Congress over new COVID spending. It's Consider This.

From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.