Consider This from NPR - As Climate Summit Moves Ahead, The World's Biggest Polluters Are Behind

Episode Date: November 1, 2021

A U.N. climate summit is underway this week in Glasgow, Scotland. Many of the world's top carbon emitting-countries will be represented there. Scientists say they need to do more to curb greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change. The U.S, along with the China, are the world's top greenhouse gas emitters. India is third. And Brazil plays a crucial role in global climate, because it is home to vast rainforests that feed on carbon. But those rainforests are disappearing faster until the current government. Ahead of the summit, NPR international correspondents in China, India, and Brazil gathered to discuss what climate action those countries are taking: Emily Feng in Beijing, Lauren Frayer in Mumbai, and Philip Reeves in Rio de Janeiro.NPR's Lauren Sommer outlined the stakes at the Glasgow summit here. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment that will help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

This message comes from Indiana University. Indiana University is committed to moving the world forward, working to tackle some of society's biggest challenges. Nine campuses, one purpose. Creating tomorrow, today. More at iu.edu. Just 20 countries produce 80% of the world's carbon emissions. And right now, those countries are not doing enough to prevent the most extreme effects of climate change. If there is no meaningful reduction of emissions in the next decade, we will have lost forever the possibility of reaching 1.5 degrees. So this is a moment of truce.

That was UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres days ago describing a new UN report that warned of a tipping point. That tipping point is the year 2030. Scientists say global emissions need to fall 45% compared to 2010 levels in order to keep global warming below that crucial threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius. But based on current commitments from some of the world's biggest polluters, emissions will rise by 16%. The big question at a global climate summit that kicks off this week in Glasgow, Scotland,

is can the world's biggest polluters do more? The clock is ticking. The emissions gap is the result of a leadership gap. But leaders can still make this a turning point to the inner future instead of a tipping point to climate catastrophe. Consider this. Scientists say to avoid catastrophe, countries need to set much more aggressive goals for limiting carbon emissions. Our international correspondents explain why some of the world's biggest polluters still have a long way to go.

From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro. It's Monday, November 1st. This message comes from NPR sponsor, Wyzant. Wyzant connects you with tutors in more than 12,000 topics for personalized one-on-one lessons. Get $25 off your first three tutoring lessons by signing up at wyzant.com slash NPR. This message comes from NPR sponsor, Webflow. Empowering designers to build custom websites in a visual canvas without the need for code. It takes the pressure off of engineers so that marketing and design teams can manage your site faster. Webflow, the modern way to build for the web. It's Consider This from NPR.

If you look at a graph of the world's biggest polluters, it's not even close. China and the U.S. far and away produce more greenhouse gases than any other countries on Earth. We'll talk about what China's doing on climate in a few moments. But first, what's the U.S. doing? This is the decisive decade. This is the decade we must make decisions that will avoid the worst consequences of the climate crisis. We must try to keep the Earth's temperature to an increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius. That was President Biden earlier this year announcing a plan to reduce emissions by about half by 2030, made possible through shifts to renewable energy and electric cars.

Scientists say that's pretty close to what needs to be done. And while it's true there are many other countries with less aggressive goals, it's also true that the U.S. bears the biggest historic responsibility for climate change. After all, carbon dioxide can last in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. And since 1850, no country on Earth has burned more fossil fuels than America. We have to move. We have to move quickly to meet these challenges. But the thing is, any movement on U.S. climate policy depends largely on a massive spending bill that Congress is still hashing out. And the latest version of that bill does not have

penalties for carbon emitters that were in earlier versions of the legislation. Meaning the U.S. begins this week's Glasgow summit without a path in place to achieve its own emissions goals. Three countries stick out as you move down the list of the world's biggest contributors to climate change. China, as we mentioned, but also India and Brazil. India is the world's third largest carbon emitter. And Brazil is home to massive rainforests that feed on carbon, helping to keep

it from warming the atmosphere. Those rainforests have been disappearing faster under Brazil's current government. So for more on climate efforts in those countries, we gathered NPR international correspondents in all three of them. Emily Feng is in Beijing, Lauren Freyer is in Mumbai, and Philip Reeves is in Rio de Janeiro. Good to have you all here. Hi, Ari. Hi there. Hi. 20 countries produce 80% of the world's carbon, and China is at the top of the list, the world's number one carbon emitter. So Emily, what kind of commitment has China made going into this summit? It has been hedging. It just released its pledges for COP26, and it's pretty much just a summary of its past pledges, which has really disappointed environmental advocates who were hoping China would come and make a big new commitment at Glasgow. Instead, China is sticking to its previously announced goals.

It's going to hopefully reach peak emissions by 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2060, which is ambitious. But analysts were hoping that China would be even more ambitious, that it could maybe even reach peak emissions by, say, 2025. China is getting hit by climate change even now. Why wouldn't they be more ambitious in their goals? Because its economy is slowing down. So Beijing does not want to make daring new commitments which could cost more money. Well, India is the third biggest emitter of carbon, and this is a country of more than a billion people where many don't own cars or refrigerators or air conditioners. So, Lauren Freyer, how is India hoping to improve the standard of living for its people

while also shrinking its carbon footprint? Yeah, so that's just a really tough question. India is modernizing really fast. So every year, tens of millions of people here are buying their first cars, their first refrigerators, their first AC units. And they're emerging from poverty. And that's great. That's a success story.

Per capita energy consumption here in India is still a fraction of what it is in the U.S., but it's skyrocketing. And energy demand in India is growing faster than any other country in the world. And so carbon emissions are going up too, driven primarily by coal. So India doesn't have a lot of oil and gas of its own, but it does have coal reserves.

And so it relies on coal for 70% of its electricity. India is building solar and wind farms, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also opening up new areas of land to coal mining because basically India needs all the energy it can get. And so that's why we probably will not hear Modi swearing off coal altogether in Glasgow, despite, you know, a lot of peer pressure from other global leaders to do so. So another country that is not being as ambitious as scientists say is necessary. And then let's look at Brazil, where the Amazon rainforest is a major issue and destruction of the rainforest is speeding up.

That's a big, big problem since trees absorb carbon. Phil, what kind of commitment is Gerard Bolsonaro making on climate change? Well, so far, nothing new. Brazil hasn't yet updated its pledge from 2015. In fact, it recently watered it down, much to the disgust of environmentalists. Experts here reckon Brazil might announce that it's bringing forward target dates for reducing deforestation. But Brazil goes into this summit with very low credibility,

and there'll be questions over whether it will keep its promises. The government's mounting a big PR campaign, advertising various green projects. But this does not disguise the fact that Amazon deforestation has surged on Bolsonaro's watch, and he's enabled that. Why wouldn't Brazil be more ambitious, be more aggressive? Well, it's partly to do with politics. Bolsonaro is a far-right populist. He's repeatedly said Brazil isn't going to be told by outsiders how to manage its rainforest. And that view is shared by many in his support base, some of them cattle farmers, whose activities are a big part of the problem. So Bolsonaro has weakened government environmental enforcement agencies since coming into power. Last month, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

hit the highest monthly level in a decade. An area the size of this city, where I am now, Rio, was lost. However, Bolsonaro is under a lot of pressure over this, especially from big business interests, worried that this damages exports and they're pushing for a change. So Brazil's public message in Glasgow will likely be one of cooperation. Okay, so there's this divide between the kind of PR push and the actual policies. And recently there was a document leak where officials from India were seen lobbying to continue using coal. This was not supposed to have been made public. Lauren, do you get the sense that countries agree that the problem is as serious as scientists say it is?

Yeah. I mean, climate change denialism is not an issue here. I mean, just look out the window. Climate change is messing with the monsoon rains. That has huge consequences for the food supply here in India. Extreme heat is already hurting Indian productivity. Mumbai, where I'm sitting right now, like may literally be underwater in decades. So there's no climate change denial here. But, you know, I went to a coal depot last week. Workers were in abysmal conditions. India has the world's worst air pollution.

These workers would love a clean energy job. But coal remains cheaper in India than renewables are, and poor countries like India are price sensitive. Let me bring in the U.S. role here, because the United States was the top carbon emitter for the 20th century. And so from where you sit in China, India, and Brazil, do you get a sense that other countries feel they should have a chance to do what the U.S. did before pivoting to a zero-carbon future, even if scientists say you've got to make the pivot now? Yeah, so in India, there is a perception that the West wants to deny India and other low- and middle-income countries the right to develop quickly. But actually, India might be able to develop more sustainably than the U.S. did.

I mean, Indians went, for example, from no phones to cell phones, so skip to the landlines. And it's something that economists call leapfrogging. So theoretically, Indians could go from no car to an electric car. India's not asking for decades to run, you know, gas-guzzling cars. They're just asking for a bit more time to make this incredible transition for nearly 1.4 billion people. What about China, Emily? China is struggling with a really complicated situation because it's one of the biggest carbon emitters because it manufactures so much of the world's goods, and that has not

changed during a global coronavirus pandemic. At the same time, there has been building pressure domestically, not just internationally, on China to clean up its act. Its own citizens want cleaner soil and safer food. And so the sense here in China is China needs to do more, but it also might need to take even more initiative internationally because it can't count on countries like the U.S. anymore to do more in terms of carbon emissions because of the political gridlock in the U.S. And Brazil? Well, you do hear that argument that Lauren just mentioned in India, you know, that you in the West got rich by exploiting your forests, and now you're trying

to stop us doing the same. You particularly hear that on the right. But, you know, despite Bolsonaro's dismal environmental record, I think key institutions in Brazil understand that the world has changed. Also, you know, Brazilians are actually suffering firsthand from climate change. We have the worst drought in nearly a century here and an energy crisis because hydropower reservoirs are at very low levels. So Brazil's position ahead of the summit might be partly to do just with negotiation tactics. After all, it's pushing for international funding to support emissions reductions, which were promised in the past, but far from fully delivered. That's Philip Reeves in Rio de Janeiro, Emily Feng in Beijing,

and Lauren Freyer in Mumbai. Thanks to all three of you. You're welcome. Thanks, Ari. Thank you. Special thanks to NPR's Lauren Sommer, whose reporting made up a lot of what you heard earlier in this episode. And we'll be covering that climate summit in Glasgow. I'll be traveling there. You'll hear more about it on the

podcast soon. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.