Consider This from NPR - Can Diplomacy Prevail In Ukraine?

Episode Date: March 17, 2022

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants America to help impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. The U.S. favors other avenues of support, providing weapons and equipment. Now there are signs the Russian advance is stalling. Could there be a diplomatic endgame in sight? Marie Yovanovitch is skeptical. The former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine tells NPR a no-fly zone should be kept on the table, citing the unpredictability and ruthlessness of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Yovanovitch has written a new memoir, Lessons From The Edge. More from her conversation with NPR's Mary Louise Kelly here. Former Naval Intelligence Officer Steven Horrell says there's an emerging possibility of a so-called 'frozen conflict' in Ukraine, with Russian forces failing to advance but also refusing to leave. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky says right now every night is like 9-11. Every night for three weeks now, various Ukrainian cities, Odessa and Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, Zhytomyr and Lviv, Mariupol and Dnipro, Russia has turned the Ukrainian sky into a source of death for thousands of people. He was talking about terror from the skies in the form of Russian airstrikes. This in a video address this week to U.S. members of Congress. He's speaking through a translator. Zelensky said he's grateful for American support so far,

but he called on the U.S. to go farther by helping establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. He showed a brutal two-minute video. Graphic images of bleeding civilians, small children dead in the street, buildings destroyed in fiery explosions. At the end, text on the screen read, close the sky over Ukraine. In the darkest time for our country, for the whole Europe, I call on you to do more.

But a no-fly zone would mean shooting down any Russian aircraft that strays into it, and U.S. officials are very wary of that. So where does the conflict go from here? You know, every war ends with, you know, negotiations and diplomacy, and this one will as well. Marie Yovanovitch, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, longtime diplomat. She told me this week that even as negotiations between Ukraine and Russia continue, she thinks the Biden administration should keep all military options on the table, including a no-fly zone. We can't let Putin set the conditions for this war of choice that he started in a country not his own. Consider this. While wars do tend to end with diplomacy, this one looks far from over. Will diplomacy prevail? Could Ukraine push Russia out militarily? Or a third possibility?

Russia may prevail militarily, but there will be a resistance, and it will be an ugly one. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It's Thursday, March 17th. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally, and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today, or visit WISE.com. T's and C's apply. It's Consider This from NPR. Another note on the idea of a no-fly zone. The reality is Russia is using mostly artillery and missiles to bomb Ukraine, not planes, an additional reason why the U.S. favors other avenues of support. This new package on its own is going to provide

unprecedented assistance to Ukraine. President Biden on Wednesday announced a new $800 million package of weapons and equipment, including anti-aircraft systems. To make sure the Ukrainian military can continue to stop the planes and helicopters that have been attacking their people. The package also includes anti-tank weapons, millions of rounds of ammunition, and small drones, a hundred of them, to carry out strikes against Russian forces. Which demonstrates our commitment to sending our most cutting-edge systems to Ukraine for its defense. And we're not doing this alone. Our allies and partners have stepped up to provide significant shipments of security assistance. But mere hours after that announcement Wednesday.

Ukrainian officials say Russian forces bombed a theater used as a shelter in Mariupol and took over another hospital. That theater in southeastern Ukraine, you could see it in satellite images from before the strike earlier this week. The word children was spelled out in huge letters in Russian on the ground next to it, meaning children are here, don't bomb. With stories like that shocking the world each day, even some in favor of diplomacy are encouraging the Biden administration not to rule out a no-fly zone. It's horrifying to see how Putin is targeting civilians, civilian structures. He is a war criminal.

And I think we want to keep options on the table because we may need to look at them later on. Marie Yovanovitch, who you heard from earlier, the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, appointed by President Obama, then forced out by President Trump, who saw her as insufficiently loyal. She has a new memoir out about that time called Lessons from the Edge. And Yovanovitch told me this week, even as a longtime diplomat, she thinks the Biden administration should not rule out any military options in Ukraine. When we spoke about why, she cited the unpredictability and the ruthlessness of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Maybe some could have predicted that we would be here where it looks like Russia is trying to take over all of Ukraine. I never would have predicted that, even on the eve of the invasion. I didn't think that's what was going to happen. So I think we shouldn't tie our own hands. Putin is the type of leader who only understands strength.

He is a bully. There is risk all around, but there is also risk in not responding sufficiently boldly. Although, just to push back with what, you know, if senior members of the State Department or White House were here now on this question of a no-fly zone, if you're going to say it should be on the table, you have to actually be prepared to do it and therefore enforce it and therefore shoot Russian planes out of the sky. You're saying, yes, that has to be on the table. I think that has to be on the table, but I also think there are other ways of doing a no-fly zone. You know, maybe you make it a humanitarian no-fly zone. I think we have lots of smart people at the Pentagon that can figure out ways to do this in a way that is less risky. And the other thing I would say is the Ukrainians

are telling us, just give us the planes. We can enforce our own no-fly zone. I think we need to be thinking creatively because this is about Ukraine. I mean, no question Putin has an obsession with Ukraine. It is about his legacy. But it's also about the further threat to Europe and, frankly, the threat to the world order, the international rules-based order. It's so interesting listening to you, a diplomat of many years, arguing for military options, that military options need to be kept on the table. Yes, I do believe that's true. It doesn't mean we're going to go there, but we need to be talking about what we're going to do, not what we're not going to do. What about the diplomacy? Do you see

a diplomatic way out of this crisis at this moment? Well, the Russians and the Ukrainians are continuing to negotiate. And today we heard from both sides that they're making some progress. I hope that's true. I'm skeptical of Russia's intentions because Russia is continuing to attack Ukraine brutally. We just heard today they attacked a bread line. I mean, people standing in line waiting to buy bread, and there were a number of fatalities. So I'm hoping that they're serious about negotiations, but I'm a little skeptical, given we've seen what they did the first time around in Ukraine in 2014 and 2015. We saw what they did in Syria. We need to maintain a healthy skepticism. You're making me think you write in this memoir about being an optimist and that diplomacy is

inherently an optimistic profession. When you look at the situation right now in Ukraine, are you able to do so with optimism? Are you able to see a bright future for this country? Yes. And it's because of the Ukrainian people. I mean, you've been there yourself. You've seen the way they're fighting back, how they are uniting, and they are fighting back against Putin and Russian aggression. And I think they're going to continue to do that. Most of the people that I know in Ukraine have not left the country. They're either in their home cities, or they are in Western Ukraine, because they don't want to go

too far away, because they want to go back to their homes if they've left them, so that they can rebuild. And I think that is the spirit of Ukraine. They are a freedom-loving people, and they are fighting for their freedom. And when they win, they are going to rebuild. I think... Hold on. You said when they win. You are confident that Ukraine can win, will win this war? Eventually, yes. Russia may prevail militarily, but there will be a resistance, and it will be an ugly one for any Russians that are attempting to impose their will on Ukraine. I think that there's going to be not only a guerrilla war, but there's going to be civil resistance where, you know, people get poisoned when they go to the restaurant,

sharpshooters are on roofs picking off Russian soldiers. It's going to be long and ugly, but this is a people that fights back. I mean, you probably know this from your time in Ukraine, but Taras Shevchenko, who was a poet in the 1800s and kind of the father of modern day Ukraine and their aspirations for a state, he is beloved. And his most famous line is, fight on and you will prevail. And I think that really exemplifies the Ukrainian spirit. Marie Yovanovitch, her new memoir is called Lessons from the Edge. A final note on the possibility of Ukraine winning the war and Russia losing. They thought it would be quick, very easy and over within a few days.

And we're now seeing that they don't have the logistics to sustain. Stephen Horrell, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis and former U.S. Naval Intelligence Officer, told NPR this week there are new signs that Russian forces did not plan to be fighting this long. Ukraine has successfully defended all but one major city from occupation and one emerging possibility Horrell said is so-called frozen conflict a kind of stalemate with Russian forces remaining in the limited areas of Ukraine they have occupied but nothing more at this point though with the success we've seen in three weeks is that even an acceptable terms for Ukraine and I think it may not be. I think

for Ukraine, anything where there still is a division, still is Russian control of Ukrainian territory, won't look like a complete victory for Ukraine either. And that's where it's challenging. It's Consider This. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.