Consider This from NPR - Can The U.S. And Its Allies Stop Russia?

Episode Date: February 8, 2022

Russia never wanted NATO to spread east through the former soviet republics. But it especially didn't want it to reach Ukraine. A compromise in 2008 put Ukraine on the path to membership, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is now effectively holding the country hostage in effort to keep that from happening. NPR's Becky Sullivan reports on the history of NATO and how a disagreement over a past proposal is fueling Putin's frustration. Read more about that here. And NPR's European correspondents describe how U.S. allies France, Germany and the U.K. are attempting to work together to stop Russia from crossing the Ukraine border. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, the U.S. was involved in efforts to reunify Germany, and American officials were trying to guess what the Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev might want in order to withdraw his control from East Germany. There's a guess that maybe what Gorbachev will want in exchange for letting Germany unify is a promise that NATO will not expand eastward. Mary Cerati is a historian who wrote a book about these negotiations called Not One Inch. That title comes from an offer that U.S. Secretary of State James Baker allegedly floated. See, at the time, NATO only included the U.S., Canada, and some of its closest European allies.

And so Secretary of State Baker, in a speculative way, in an early stage of negotiation, says to Gorbachev, well, how about this idea? How about you let your half of Germany go, and we agree NATO moves not one inch eastward? Well, Sarati says President George H.W. Bush rejected that idea. When Russia eventually agreed to the treaty, it did not include a ban on NATO expansion. But there's residual bitterness because, of course, afterwards, still to this day, Putin is saying, look, there was this other offer on the table. That's sort of factually accurate in a narrow sense, but, you know, it doesn't reflect the reality of the treaty. NATO committed to an open-door policy that any country in Europe could join. And the

alliance did expand east. This let the U.S. cement its influence in Europe, and it gave former Soviet republics like Bulgaria and Romania strong partners. They believed that the United States could bring them into the West, which was what they wanted. James Goldgeier is a professor of international relations at American University. And they believed that the United States could protect them if Russia ever became aggressive again. And Goldgeier says the further NATO moved east, the more it antagonized Russia. You know, it was one thing for Poland to come in or the Czech Republic to come in. You know, not such a big deal. But there was always concern about Ukraine.

Putin refers to Ukrainians and Russians as one people. And while Ukraine is not a member of NATO, there was a compromise reached in 2008. Basically, a promise that Ukraine would eventually join NATO without any clear timeline given. The compromise made things worse because it didn't put Ukraine on an actual path. But it said to everybody, including the Russians, they're going to become members of NATO. Now Putin is effectively holding Ukraine hostage. With more than 100,000 Russian troops around Ukraine's borders, Putin is demanding that the U.S. and its NATO allies follow through on a promise the West says it never made. Consider this. As the standoff at the Ukraine border continues, the U.S. and its European allies have said that NATO's open-door policy is not up for debate. Instead, they are hoping to force Russia to back down with the threat of economic sanctions.

From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro. It's Tuesday, February 8th. It's Consider This from NPR. If Russia invades Ukraine, American officials say Russia will suffer painful financial consequences. No option is off the table, even the most severe measures, because we don't know what's on the table for Putin. Dilip Singh is the U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economics, and he told NPR that back in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, the U.S. took a gradual approach because the U.S. had never imposed sanctions on an economy as large and complex as Russia. But things are different now. We've learned a lot since 2014. We know where Russia's pressure points are. So that's why instead of taking a gradualist approach, we're

prepared to start with sanctions at the top of our escalation ladder and stay there. For example, Singh says Russia could be barred from the international banking community called SWIFT. He describes it as the Gmail of global banking. So if a country is cut off from SWIFT, it's de facto removed from the global financial system, full stop. This inverted approach of starting with the most extreme measures is meant to send a message that this time, violating another country's sovereign borders won't be tolerated. Of course, we don't want to have to use the most severe sanctions, but we also don't want there to be unchecked aggression in the heart of Europe. The U.S. and its allies in Europe are still hoping for a diplomatic solution to this standoff. French President Emmanuel Macron was in Moscow this

week meeting with Putin. Then the next day, he met with Ukraine's president. And German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was at the White House, where President Biden tried to project unity. Germany is one of America's closest allies. We're working on a lockstep to further deter Russian aggression in Europe. To help us understand more about what European leaders are willing to do, I'm joined by three of our correspondents, Frank Langfitt in London, Eleanor Beardsley in Paris, and Rob Schmitz, who's based in Berlin. Good to have all three of you here. Hi, Ari. Great to be here, Ari. Thank you. Rob, let's start with you because Germany's leader was just at the White House, but so far Germany has been reluctant to take actions that might provoke Russia. Schulz's government has refused to export weapons to Ukraine. He's been vague about

how Germany would respond to an invasion. Why do you think that is? Well, Germany has a long-standing policy of not sending weapons into conflict regions, and there have been exceptions to this would respond to an invasion. Why do you think that is? Well, Germany has a longstanding policy of not sending weapons into conflict regions. And there have been exceptions to this rule. Germany sent weapons to the Kurds in Iraq and Syria years ago. But so far, Berlin has not made the same decision for Ukraine. Instead, it sent thousands of helmets and medical gear. As to why the reluctance to be more aggressive with Russia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's party, the Social Democrats, have historically had a close relationship with Moscow. Social Democrat Gerhard Schroeder, for example, joined the board of Russian energy company Rosneft after he was chancellor, and he publicly defends Vladimir Putin regularly. And lastly, you know, Scholz

heads a new German government after 16 years of an internationally known quantity, Angela Merkel. The three parties that help run Scholz's government are not yet in lockstep on how to handle this crisis. So it's taking some time. And looking to France, Eleanor, President Macron met with Putin to try to de-escalate the situation. Tell us about the strategy there. Well, his first strategy is to inject Europe into negotiations that involve Europe. You know, this crisis of European security must involve all Europeans. As you remember, for a while, it was the Russians talking with Americans, you know, over Europe's head. And there's a feeling

that things have escalated out of control in the Russian-American relationship. And there's a need for European diplomacy. You know, Angela Merkel is now gone. And so that sort of puts Macron in charge. He's kept a steady relationship with Putin over the last years, even though, you know, things haven't been great. He's even called for a reset with Russia. And Putin has actually called him an interlocutor of quality and one of the only leaders with whom he can really discuss matters deeply. Macron says he's lucid but optimistic, and he's actually hoping to use a European structure for dialogue that's already in place since 2014 called the Normandy format. This is when Ukraine and Russia, France and Germany met directly.

It was to resolve the conflict in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. It's been frozen for the last few years, but Macron is hoping, you know, maybe that can be revived as a way to address this crisis and at least build confidence and get dialogue flowing so that we can de-escalate the situation. This sounds very different from the approach that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the UK are taking to this. Frank, as you know, the UK called out an alleged plot by Russia to install a puppet in Kiev. It sent anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. What are Britain's calculations here? Yeah, I think a lot of this already has to do with the

way Britain sees itself post-Brexit. It wants to remain indispensable to European security and also has to kind of carve out a new role for itself. In some ways, the Brits have actually been out in front of the U.S. on this, but they also remain closely aligned with the United States because this is the most important, probably the most important partner that they have. And then there are other reasons why they're not crazy about the Russians. There was, if you remember back in 2018, two Russian agents were, you know, accused of coming to the town of Salisbury here in England and poisoning a former Russian military officer and his daughter. And the other thing is, unlike some other parts of Europe, the UK doesn't rely on Russian energy. Its biggest imports come from

Norway and the Netherlands. And then finally, I guess, you know, Boris Johnson is having a lot of trouble with all these parties that were going on down in the government during the COVID lockdowns. And this is an opportunity perhaps for him to also seem to appear more statesmanlike. So, Rob, let's talk about this press conference between Biden and Schultz. Apparently, the two of them, according to Biden, are in complete agreement on sanctions. They say that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will not go forward. Are they really standing shoulder to shoulder here? Yeah, it's weird. You know, there's been a lot of verbal dancing around this definitive stance on the future of Nord Stream 2,

this gas pipeline that has yet to carry Russian gas to Germany. But I think we have to take Schultz at his word when he says that Nord Stream 2 is on the table. Those were his strongest words yet on this. And most analysts take this to mean that Germany would halt the project in the event of an invasion, and this would have big economic consequences for Putin and Russia. Biden in his press conference with Schultz actually said that Germany and the U.S. are in agreement that it cannot be business as usual if Russia invades. Biden also said that he and Schultz developed a package of sanctions that would impose usual, if Russia invades. Biden also said that he and Schultz developed a package of sanctions that would impose swift consequences if Russia invades, consequences that could cripple Moscow economically. And Eleanor, to what extent is the French path here indicative of where Europe

stands on all of this? Yeah, Ari, many Europeans, they have a sort of a different point of view. They don't think war is imminent. In fact, hearing a lot of the US language about, many Europeans, they have sort of a different point of view. They don't think war is imminent. In fact, hearing a lot of the U.S. language about, you know, an attack could come any day is perceived as very jarring here. People think the troop buildup, while very scary and, you know, people don't know what will happen, they think it's more to force the West to have dialogue with Russia and take its security concerns seriously. And, you know, before heading to Moscow, Macron spoke of the trauma of European nations under Soviet occupation, but he also talked about the trauma of the Russian people. He's got a difficult job. He wants Russia to pull the troops back and de-escalate, but they're going

to want something in return. But that has to be acceptable to Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, who he sees tomorrow, and to European partners. So Macron has been preparing for this. He's spoken with Biden, his European allies, and NATO in the last days preparing for this tough diplomatic mission. Frank, just to take a broad view for a moment, many analysts have said that Putin's overarching goal here is to reverse the gains that NATO made over the last two decades. As the U.S. now deploys more troops to Eastern Europe and European leaders seem to coalesce around an anti-Russia strategy, is there a point at which Putin's strategy might backfire, might be self-defeating? Absolutely. What Putin would want, I think,

is a buffer between Russia and the European Union and NATO nations, and European cohesion is definitely his enemy. But it's interesting here, Ari, because since the end Union and NATO nations, and European cohesion is definitely his enemy. But it's interesting here, Ari, because, you know, since the end of the Cold War, NATO has been in a rolling identity crisis. Who's the enemy? What's the purpose? And if you talk to people in Brussels, they often kind of half joke that the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was hugely beneficial to NATO because it gave it a focus. And so if there was some kind of invasion by the Russians, it actually could lead to an arms race,

actually draw NATO nations closer together, and it can actually create more problems long-term for Vladimir Putin. That is NPR's Frank Langfitt in London, Eleanor Beardsley in Paris, and Rob Schmitz, whose home base is Berlin. Thanks to all three of you. Happy to do it, Ari. Thanks.

And reporting on the history of NATO came from NPR's Becky Sullivan. You can read more about that at a link in our show notes. You're listening to Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.