Consider This from NPR - Climate change is fueling brutal rainstorms. Here's how to stay safe

Episode Date: July 15, 2025

It's not just Texas. In the past couple of weeks, communities all around the country have been hit with torrential rains and deadly flash flooding. Extreme weather events like this are expected to become more common as the planet heats up. As climate change increases flash flooding risks, our infrastructure is struggling to keep up. But improvements to that infrastructure will cost billions.NPR's Michael Copley explains how a changing climate drives flooding and how communities and individuals can prepare.And NPR's Laura Sullivan reports on how flood maps from the Federal Emergency Management Agency didn't capture the true risks at Camp Mystic, which was devastated by the Texas flooding.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

The aftermath of the flooding in Texas is really just beginning. Volunteers are still working along the riverbank cleaning up debris. One of them is Cindy Martinez. I just wanted to help and it's my birthday and I couldn't think of a... I'm so thankful that I'm not going through something like this and the only thing I could think of doing, I feel so helpless. She told NPR's Martin Costey that doing physical work, dragging tree branches up the muddy hill,

makes it easier not to think about the lives lost here. Although I'll be honest with you, when I see things like a lure, a fishing lure, and I'm like reminded, like somebody just came out here to fish that day. What have you found today? A doll, some pajamas, people's lives. The disaster brought everyday life

in parts of Texas to a standstill. One thing that hasn't stopped though is flooding. Kerr County, the hardest hit area in the Guadalupe flooding was under another flash flood warning Tuesday morning. And in just 11 days since the Guadalupe River disaster, deadly floods have hit communities all across the country. Last week, parts of North Carolina were inundated as remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal rolled through. Emergency Services Director Kirby Saunders called the flooding historic. I've been here 12 years. It's about 28th year in public safety. I have not seen this.

A man and two children were killed in flash flooding in New Mexico in an area that saw wildfires last summer. We received three and a half inches of rain on the South Fork burn scar in about a 90 minute period. That was Ruedoso Mayor Lynn Crawford. Then Monday night it was New York and New Jersey. Video on social media captured rainwater cascading into the subways and streets turned into rivers. You know, last night we got crushed. New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said two people were killed when floodwaters swept their car away. The common thread in each of these situations. A ton of rain dumped very quickly, a risk that is expected to grow as the planet heats up.

We, New Jersey, we, America, we the globe, we're getting dragged by climate. Consider this, climate change is increasing flash flooding risk in the U.S. and our tools to deal with it are struggling to keep up. From NPR, I'm Wanda Summers. our right to be curious and our prerogative to listen. So keep your curiosity alive. Hear the bigger picture every day on NPR. Hey everybody, it's Ian from How to Do Everything. On our show, we attempt to answer your how-to questions. We don't know how to do anything, so we call experts. Last season, both Tom Hanks and Martha Stewart stopped by to help. Our next season is launching in just a few months, so get us your questions now by emailing howto at npr.org or calling 1-800-424-2935.

It's Consider This from NPR. So why is climate change expected to make extreme rainstorms like the ones we've seen this month more common? To dig into that question and what people can do to prepare, I spoke with Michael Copley from NPR's climate desk. So Michael, over the past couple of weeks so many of us have been really just shocked to see the intensity of some of this flooding. What can you tell us about why we're experiencing such extreme weather? Yes. In general, a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. So people keep releasing a ton of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels like coal and oil.

And that's raising global temperatures and fueling more intense rainstorms that drop more water in shorter periods of time. And we're going to see more extreme weather events as the earth keeps heating up. And that's going to pose bigger threats to people and their homes and cities. Here's Gernot Wagner, he's a climate economist at Columbia Business School. It seems to be bad right now.

This is the best year of our lifetimes. Wagner says communities need to invest billions and billions to deal with more extreme weather. Okay, billions and billions, but what kinds of investments are we talking about here? Yeah, we're talking about overhauling stormwater management systems that cities built decades ago so that they can handle more water coming down in these storms. They're also going to make big investments in underground rail systems like the New York subway.

There have been cases of passengers stranded and service disrupted in places like Boston, D.C., and London in recent years. Some cities are trying to make investments to make their systems more resilient to climate change, waterproofing stations and tunnels. But keeping water out is a constant battle, and Wagner says some flooding like we saw last night in the New York subway is expected. Yes, certain amount of flooding around the tracks in the subway system is in fact by design. Well, more flooding like that and people will die. Wagner says a lot of these transportation systems are already operating at or near the breaking point.

I mean, these flash floods, they can happen rather quickly. So what can people do to stay safe? Yeah, they do happen really, really quickly. It's important to make sure that you're getting the emergency alerts. People get those through their cell phones. Oftentimes, they're also broadcast over the radio and television.

And when flash flood warnings go out, experts say you really need to take them seriously. Maybe delay your commute. Don't drive through flooded areas. Also, check the flood risk at your home. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has a tool for that. So does First Street. It's an organization that assesses climate risk.

And then you need to think about what are you going to do in an emergency? Pack a bag ahead of time with important stuff like documents and medication. And think about if you need to evacuate, how can you get to higher ground quickly? Right. Michael, I understand that according to the government, just 4% of homeowners have flood insurance. Is that right? That's right. Yeah. I think most people don't know that home insurance doesn't generally cover flooding. They don't know that they need to buy a separate policy through the

National Flood Insurance Program or a private company. Or they think they only need flood insurance if they're in a flood zone. Anderson Baker is a retired insurance executive in Louisiana and here's what he has to say to that. Everybody's in a flood zone. People at the top of the mountain are in a flood zone. They're just in a good flood zone. The other issue that we're seeing is flood insurance is getting pretty expensive around

the country, especially in flood prone areas. That cost is often a deal breaker, especially for people on tight budgets. But when homeowners don't have flood insurance, often they're on their own to deal with the damage. And that can be devastating financially. Michael Kompley from NPR's Climate Desk. Michael, thank you. Thank you, Wanda.

One of the tools that Michael mentioned was the FEMA flood maps. They're supposed to help communities predict and prevent the worst danger. Laura Sullivan on NPR's investigations team has found that in Texas, there were flood risks that those maps simply didn't capture. For most Americans, if you want to know if you live in an area at risk of flooding, you can punch an address into a database run by FEMA. A color-coded grid will tell you where the agency expects the water to reach. But for decades now, these maps have relied on old and limited data, and scientists for

private companies are finding government maps woefully misrepresent the actual risk millions of Americans face. I mean, it's interesting to see how close these cabins and these smaller buildings are. Data scientist Jeremy Porter, with the group First Street is studying aerial photos of a line of cabins at Camp Mystic in Kerr County, where more than two dozen young girls and camp staff lost their lives.

As many as 17 camp buildings seem safely outside the water's range on the FEMA maps. When we zoom in, we actually see that they're in our flood zone. But First Street's maps on the FEMA maps. When we zoom in, we actually see that they're in our flood zone. But First Street's maps show the buildings, including many cabins, are in danger. The difference reflects more than whether people know their flood risk, but whether they have prepared for it. Structures inside the government's flood areas are often required to be built

in ways that could protect people from a flood. There's a human element here that oftentimes gets overlooked because we're so worried about property damage. The problem extends well beyond the banks of the Guadalupe River in Texas. 1st Street found more than two times as many Americans live in risky places compared to what the government reports on its maps.

The reason, Porter says, is that FEMA does not map rainfall. It focuses instead on tidal surge and large river flooding at a time when climate change is supercharging rainfall intensity. You think in principle people would say we should have better flood cover. Look what just happened. But it's so heavily politicized that you can't get anybody to bring it forward because they don't want to be the people that raised flood insurance costs. A recent investigation by NPR and PBS Frontline found special interests are also playing a role.

Groups like home developer associations have been lobbying Congress for less flood regulation and in some cases, to stall updating the nation's flood maps. Developers told NPR they are trying to keep homes affordable. But even when FEMA does mark the most dangerous areas, those warnings are not always heeded. At Camp Mystic, NPR found at least eight buildings, including four cabins that housed younger campers inside what FEMA calls a floodway.

It's the most dangerous part of the floodplain, and it's where water is expected to move rapidly during a floodway. It's the most dangerous part of the floodplain, and it's where water is expected to move rapidly during a flood. Think of the banks of a river. In Texas, we don't think that the floodplains are that serious. Jim Blackburn is the co-director of the Severe Storm Center at Rice University in Houston. We treat floodplains as kind of a good old boy kind of wink and nod. Oh yeah, it's a floodplain. Oh yeah, you know, it's environmental red tape. And that is going to get a lot of people killed.

Blackburn says what were once thought of as rare events are no longer. It is happening. The science is solid. What we need is reasonable decision making based on the best available science, and we don't have that right now. Many catastrophic storms over the last few years have hit places people never expected, but growing research shows they are predictable enough to prepare for. That was NPR's Laura Sullivan.

And there's one more big issue with the FEMA map in Texas. Laura found documents that revealed that Camp Mystic had successfully petitioned the government to remove buildings from those FEMA flood maps. The change meant that more than a dozen buildings were no longer included in the dangerous area that FEMA designates as a floodplain. That could mean the camp was exempt from stricter building requirements like elevating structures or shoring up foundations. It can also remove requirements for flood insurance.

There is a link to those documents and more of Laura's reporting in our show notes. This episode was produced by Monika Evstatieva, Jordan Marie Smith, and Connor Donovan with audio engineering by Maggie Luthor and Ted Mebane. It was edited by Barry Hardiman, Nela Banerjee, and Jeanette Woods. Our executive producer is Sammy Yannigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Juana Sommers.

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