Consider This from NPR - Could January 6th Decide the Next Election?

Episode Date: January 2, 2024

Former President and likely Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has been kicked off primary ballots in Maine and Colorado. His name on the ballot is being challenged in several other states across the country. All the challenges are based on the insurrection clause in the 14th amendment and stem from Trump's involvement in the January 6th attack on the US Capitol. Trump is appealing the Maine decision, and is expected to appeal the Colorado decision.Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a democrat, told All Things Considered that Trump's actions on January 6th are what drove her decision to remove him from the ballot. NPR's Juana Summers, talks to Senior Editor and Correspondent Domenico Montanaro about the decisions to remove Trump, whether they'll stand, and what these challenges could mean for the outcome of the Presidential election.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

What I saw was just a war scene. Capitol Police Officer Caroline Edwards was on the front lines during the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, 2021. There were officers on the ground, you know, they were bleeding, they were throwing up. I mean, I saw friends with blood all over their faces. I was slipping in people's blood. She testified about the experience before the select committee on January 6th in June 2022. At the time of the attack on the Capitol, Edwards had been on the Capitol police force for four years, but nothing in that time could have prepared her for what happened on January 6th. Never in my wildest dreams did I think that as a police officer, as a law

enforcement officer, I would find myself in the middle of a battle. You know, I'm trained to detain, you know, a couple of subjects and handle, you know, handle a crowd, but I'm not combat trained. And that day, it was just hours of hand-to-hand combat. Edwards sustained a traumatic brain injury in the fighting that day. She told the New York Times that she suffered for months after with slow and labored speech, fainting spells, and so much vertigo she could barely walk. Years after the attack, the country is still trying to come to terms with the legacy of January 6th. More than a thousand people have now faced criminal charges related to the day.

One of those is former President Donald Trump. And those charges are jeopardizing his run for the White House. Consider this. Trump's involvement in the January 6th insurrection has led to him being kicked off the 2024 primary ballots in Maine and Colorado. And several other states are considering challenges to him appearing on their primary ballots. What does all this mean for the outcome of the next election? From NPR, I'm Juana Summers. It's Tuesday, January 2nd. It's Consider This from NPR. All of the challenges to Trump's presidential run are based on the 14th Amendment Insurrection Clause.

They argue the likely GOP nominee should be excluded because of his role in the January 6th insurrection. Maine Secretary of State Shanna Bellows, who is a Democrat, told All Things Considered that Trump's actions on January 6th were what drove her decision to remove him from the ballot. So I reviewed very carefully the hearing proceedings and the weight of the evidence presented to me at the hearing. And that evidence made clear first that those events of January 6, 2021, and we all witnessed them, they were unprecedented. They were tragic. But they were an attack not only upon the Capitol and government officials, but also an attack on the rule of law, on the peaceful transfer of power. And the evidence presented at the hearing demonstrated that they occurred at the behest of and with the knowledge and support of the outgoing president.

And the United States Constitution does not tolerate an assault on the foundations of our government. And under main election law, I was required to act in response. Trump has appealed the main Secretary of State's decision to the state's superior court. Should he appeal the Colorado decision, which he is expected to do, the U.S. Supreme Court will make the call. But that could take a long time, and the presidential primary process begins in weeks. It's something NPR senior editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro has been watching closely. He and I are going to talk through the political and practical implications of all of this.

Hi, Domenico. Hey, great to be with you, Anna. So former President Trump has appealed the Maine decision, and he'll likely appeal the Colorado decision to the Supreme Court. But would these states actually matter to Trump in the general election? Well, you know, both have trended Democratic, so they're not exactly swing states. You know, Colorado used to be one, but not anymore, really, with the growth in Denver and its suburbs. Trump did win an electoral vote out of Maine, we should say, in 2016, because they apportioned their electoral votes by congressional district, not winner-take-all, like most of the other states. And one of those

districts does lean to the right. You know, certainly with how close elections have been this century, though, you know, every electoral vote counts. But this is really beyond the idea of simply counting electoral votes. You know, it goes to what's fair, you know, and these novel interpretations of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which states that no one who had been an officeholder can hold office again if they, quote, engaged in insurrection or gave aid or comfort to those that did. You know, and this has never been tested really legally before. And it's coming at a time when the caucuses and primaries are kicking off in less than two weeks. Yeah, that's right. Domenico, I mentioned that there are a couple of states where there are similar challenges. When you think through the fact that any presidential

candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, could former President Trump being kept off the ballot in any of the other states make a difference here? Theoretically, it could. I mean, you know, there are challenges in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, and Wisconsin. But we got to throw a little bit of cold water on the likelihood that Trump is going to be left off the ballot anywhere at the end of the day. You know, Colorado and Maine are in the minority on this right now. Colorado is the only state court that's weighed in on this. Maine Secretary of State, you know, acknowledges herself that, you know, this was only the beginning of the process in her state. You know, the state court there will eventually weigh in. And both states don't have much teeth behind their decisions because they're essentially deferring to the U.S.

Supreme Court and calling for it to act. And I have to say, I have a hard time believing this won't be settled by the Supreme Court. The clock is really ticking here. I mean, I don't have to tell you this, but the primaries are just around the corner. And I mean, ballots have to go out to give people time to vote. How does this legal odyssey factor into that? I mean, it's potentially a real mess. I mean, ballots are going out soon in all of the states for the primaries. And as people start thinking about the presidential election now in this new year, it really is going to cause a lot of confusion.

We've already seen that with Trump's legal problems otherwise with the multiple criminal counts that he's facing. But this is more tangible even than that, because this is about whether his name will even be on the ballot in some of these places. And it's already a complicated process. Overseas and military ballots are going to have to be printed and sent out and more urgently dealing with the primaries. And we should just remind folks here that these cases, they're separate from the criminal charges that the former president faces in several courts across the country. Domenico, where do those stand? Yeah, I mean, they are separate, but they're part of this whole sort of tangled web we've

been talking about. You know, those cases are also in limbo somewhat because of delays that we've seen. You know, the name of the game really for Trump's team is delay, delay, delay. They're trying to kick the timeline as far down the road as they can in hopes that we don't see any trial this year. You know, he could win reelection, they hope, and move to have the federal cases, for example, dismissed. The state cases are going to be tougher for him to do that. And a state like Georgia, which has its election interference case, is slated to begin August 5th, which could mean an O.J. Simpson-style trial with cameras in the courtroom taking place during the general election. That is, of course, if that trial even starts on time.

And Domenico, last thing about the voters. How is all of this playing with them? Well, when I talk to Republicans, I really see what's happening in Colorado and Maine as evidence for Trump's argument that he's been unfairly persecuted, that these are politically motivated. And it's really quite something because we all saw what happened on TV January 6, three years ago now. And yet a new Washington Post University of Maryland poll out today showed that fewer than one in five Republicans think that the January 6 protesters were, quote, mostly violent. And that's down eight points compared to three years ago. So it just shows you how much Trump's public relations effort on this has worked in the last three years with his base, why he's only strengthened his hand in the primary.

Why it's been so hard for any of his Republican rivals to dislodge him. NPR senior editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Thank you. You're so welcome. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Juana Summers.