Consider This from NPR - Delta Surge Slows Recovery As Parts Of Pandemic Safety Net Disappear

Episode Date: September 8, 2021

Last week's jobs report for the month of August show signs the delta surge is slowing the economic recovery, just as some pandemic safety net programs disappear. The Supreme Court recently struck down a federal eviction moratorium, and supplemental pandemic unemployment benefits expired on Monday. NPR's chief economics correspondent Scott Horsley explains what that could mean for the pace of the recovery. With a federal eviction ban no longer in effect, renters could tap into billions of dollars in federal rental assistance authorized by Congress. But there's a problem: states have been slow to get that money into programs that can distribute it to tenants and landlords. NPR's Laurel Wamsley reports on one effort to speed things up in Tennessee. Additional reporting in this episode from NPR's Chris Arnold, who's been covering evictions during the pandemic. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment that will help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for NPR and the following message come from Carnegie Corporation of New York, working to reduce political polarization through philanthropic support for education, democracy, and peace. More information at carnegie.org. Economists have been saying it since last year. The direction of the economy depends on the direction of the pandemic. Yes, the jobs report is out. August non-farm payrolls increase a minuscule $235,000. $235,000. You heard me right. Forecasts for the Labor Department's August

jobs report released last week had been much higher. We're absolutely not seeing what we thought we were going to see. After all, in July, the economy added more than a million jobs, and a lot of those in bars and restaurants. But that sector actually lost jobs in August, 42,000 of them. There's no getting around the fact that it's a disappointing number. So what happened? We need to make more progress in fighting the Delta variant of COVID-19.

President Biden said last week the Delta surge was dragging things down. People are shopping and eating out less. Businesses are still short-staffed. Hospitals are slammed again. All while COVID deaths in the U.S. went from a low of less than 200 people a day in July to nearly 1,200 people a day in August. Too many have not gotten vaccinated, and it's creating a lot of unease in our economy and around our kitchen tables.

Consider this. The Delta surge now looks like a serious threat to a faster recovery. While a pandemic safety net for millions of people, including eviction bans and additional jobless benefits, well, they're disappearing. And now economists are worried things could get worse before they get better. From NPR, I'm Adi Kornish. It's Wednesday, September 8th. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend or receive money internationally and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today or visit wise.com. T's and C's apply. It's Consider This from NPR. This week, for the first

time since March of 2020, millions of people will not have access to several federal programs that extended unemployment benefits. Those benefits expired on Monday. At least seven and a half million people will see their aid cut entirely, while millions more will have their benefits reduced by 300 a week. Those benefits have been crucial for out-of-work people like Kate in Brooklyn, New York. I've survived so much. I've made it work in so many different countries and so many different cities. I have never felt this close to despair.

She doesn't want us to use her last name because Kate is worried it will affect her immigration status. I was one of those people that if things went wrong, I was a couple of paychecks away from going down the drain, as the pandemic proved. But I never really felt that way because I didn't see a pandemic coming. But when it did hit, her savings dwindled. So being eligible for extended jobless benefits was a game changer.

The relief when it came through, the utter relief. I remember that very well. Anita Perkins, a music teacher in Spokane, Washington, echoes that feeling. It was a huge weight off my shoulders. I said, I'm going to be okay for a while. The benefits have kept her bills up to date, and she's now back at work. But there's a six-week gap between her last unemployment check and her first paycheck, and the bills aren't stopping. And so there's a month and a half that is going to be difficult to come up with. David Toms is also an educator in Milwaukee.

He says for now, as Delta variant cases put more and more people in the hospital, he's not willing to take the chance on a minimum wage job that doesn't allow for remote work. Like, it's not me being lazy. It's just, logically speaking, like, I'm going to go below what I was making even as a college student. It just doesn't make sense to me. All that is not worth risking my life, you know? Lauren Bailey in Silver Spring, Maryland, had to weigh that risk last March. She had to stop driving for Uber when COVID was first reported in the U.S. I already have health issues and a compromised immune system. Without a remote work option, she relied heavily on the federal benefits.

With unemployment, I was able to pay all of my bills. So I was able to stay afloat. But Lauren, David, Anita, and Kate, well, they all now have to figure out another safety net. Kate is starting to feel like her options have run out. So she's hoping for more empathy from lawmakers. It's not enough people in the Senate who know what this feels like. So is there any chance for the Senate or the rest of Congress to act? The short answer is not likely.

For more on that and the pace of the recovery, I spoke to NPR's chief economics correspondent, Scott Horsley. We talked the day that the supplemental pandemic unemployment benefits expired. Welcome back, Scott. Hi, Audie. Millions of people are losing this aid just as there's this sharp actual slowdown in hiring. Is this what policymakers expected? I don't think so. When today's deadline was originally crafted back in the spring, the hope was that the job market would be on more solid footing by the time the aid was taken away.

And we did see really solid job gains early in the summer when it looked like the pandemic was in retreat. But then along came the Delta variant, and it really slammed the brakes on the economic recovery. U.S. employers added just 235,000 jobs last month, less than a quarter of the number they added in both June and July. White House economist Cecilia Rouse acknowledges the government is cutting off unemployment benefits just as we're facing some stiff new headwinds from the pandemic. As we've said from the beginning, this is an economic crisis that is being driven by a pandemic. And so in order for us to get to the other side and for us to fully recover, we're going to have to fully recover from the pandemic. And that's proving easier said than done with this unpredictable virus.

President Biden did say that he will be announcing new initiatives to boost vaccination rates, but of course that's not going to happen overnight. And meanwhile, the last of the emergency benefit payments are going out right now. What do we know about what could happen as these benefits expire? I mean, half of states had already cut extended unemployment benefits, I think, earlier in the summer. That's right. About two dozen states cut benefits in June or early July, and the mostly Republican governors of those states were hoping that would push more people back to work. A lot of business owners had complained that these benefits were discouraging people from looking for jobs. What researchers have found, though, is that people

in the states that cut benefits early were only a little bit more likely to find jobs than the people in states where the benefits kept going until today. What's more, you heard Lauren and Anita talk about how these benefits allowed them to keep paying their bills. Most of those who lost benefits did not find jobs right away, so they had no benefits and no paycheck. Not surprisingly, they had to dial back their spending. And now we're likely to see that repeated in the remaining states. These benefits were putting about $30 billion a month into the pockets of the unemployed. When that goes away, it's obviously a hardship for the people losing the benefits, but it could also mean less money for the neighborhood grocery store,

the gas station, the landlord, all the people who were benefiting from keeping the unemployed afloat. Are lawmakers thinking about doing what they've done a couple times already, which is extend these benefits? There's been no big national push by lawmakers. The administration has subtly shifted its tone on this subject as the deadline got closer. Back in June, President Biden said it made sense for the benefits to end this week. By mid-August, though, with the Delta variant raging, both the Treasury Secretary and the Labor Secretary said it might make sense for some states to extend the benefits. Rouse notes there is a lot of variation. You've got states like Utah and South Dakota where unemployment is below 3 percent. And then you have states like Nevada, heavily dependent on tourism, where unemployment is pushing 8%. It's no longer one size fits all. And so it's important that

the governors have the tools that they need so that they can help the workforce in their states and to be responsive to their local economic environment. On Friday, the president stressed states have the option to extend benefits using some of the discretionary money in the American Rescue Plan. But so far, no state has announced plans to do so. Now, additional federal unemployment benefits aren't the only ones going away. Last month, the Supreme Court struck down a federal eviction moratorium. That means millions of renters face a new threat of eviction. Carly Holloway is one of those people.

One of the things that kept us going was we knew that there was something in place protecting us through this hardship. And now that that's ended, you know, it's terrifying. Flat out terrifying. Carly's a cake decorator in Naugatuck, Connecticut. Her husband lost his job during the pandemic, and they're five months behind on rent. And Carly told NPR they just don't have anywhere else to go if their landlord decides to evict them. They have two young kids, one of them a daughter too young to be vaccinated. I don't

want her to ever have to live through an eviction. You know, that's traumatizing for a child to be uprooted from their home. And, you know, American children are facing that right now. There's just going to be a lot of unnecessary trauma on people that are just trying to get by. Holloway is holding out hope that her family will qualify for federal rental assistance money. Congress authorized about $50 billion worth of it over the course of the pandemic, but states have done a poor job getting that money out. Only about 10% of it has reached renters and landlords.

NPR's Laurel Wamsley reports on one effort to speed things up in Shelby County, Tennessee. SBTN Apartments versus Dolores Eggleston. In a courthouse in Memphis, tenants are packed into eviction court, as much as social distancing will allow. When their cases are called, tenants are asked this question by Judge Phyllis Gardner. Have you talked with anyone, or are you interested in the rental assistance program? In case after case, Gardner urges tenants to visit room 134 down the hall, where Memphis Area Legal Services attorneys help tenants start applications for rental aid. One of those attorneys, Frida Turner, stands up in the courtroom to speak about the program.

If you apply and if you're approved, we will pay up to 12 months of your back rent plus one month of future rent. We will bring you to zero and you'll get a fresh start. A fresh start. That's what's new, even if evictions aren't. Thanks to the billions in federal aid, tenants who are behind have a chance to stay in their homes. Due to a federal court ruling in July, judges here in Tennessee haven't been bound by the CDC order for more than a month. To Judge Gardner, the CDC order delayed the inevitable, while in Memphis, they started resolving cases. We've been able to deal with the problems to give these people and the landlords some closure so that they can move on. The most recent CDC ban was

intended to give states and localities more time to get assistance out to renters facing eviction, but it's been slow going. By the end of July, nationally, just over $5 billion of the $25 billion allocated had been spent. Several states have used less than 5% of the federal money so far. But in Memphis and Shelby County, the picture is different. By July 31st, they'd distributed more than half of their $28 million. Kyla Savage has already been approved for assistance. She fell behind in rent in July after the car she'd been driving for Lyft broke down. Outside the courthouse, she says she's surprised by the court's efforts. It made me feel good to know that they are giving that information out because a lot of people don't know about it. She's still nervous about the months ahead as she looks for work to cover rent for her and her three children.

Hopefully I find something before it's too late or I don't want to end up back in here, you know, and I really don't want to end up out on the street with my kids, so I'm trying. Dorcas Young-Griffin's office is in charge of the program for Shelby County government. She says a key to their success has been identifying places with 10 or more tenants behind on rent and using bulk settlements to speed the process of getting money out. They weren't necessarily being evicted, but they hadn't paid. So you knew that these were folks that needed help. Why not find a way to make it easier to identify those people? And hey, landlords, we can get you paid with this big check versus, you know, just trying to piecemeal things together. And it's helpful for

us because we know that instead of just getting one person settled and stable, we could do a hundred at a time. This proactive approach means a lot of tenants can avoid court entirely. Josh Kahane is a partner at Glankler Brown, a law firm in Memphis that represents about 200 multifamily landlords and property managers. He filed the lawsuit, Tiger Lily v. HUD, that resulted in the CDC ban being blocked in Tennessee. He's been active in arranging bulk settlements. For most of my clients, I've tried to push them both on the element of this will help you recover some of the past rent delinquencies that exist, and also in the world we're currently facing, having mass evictions is probably not in anyone's

best interest. Kahane practices in six other states that had still been under the CDC ban, and where, he says, the disbursement programs are not working so well. But landlords aren't required to accept the federal money, and they can move to evict people. Turner, the legal aid attorney, says in that case, the tenant who has applied for rental assistance receives federal funds instead. But they've got to move. They've got to find somewhere to go to. The rental market is extraordinarily tight. We have a lot of investors flooding in from other states who find our real estate more affordable than where they are.

It's getting hard to rent. One of the people Turner helps in room 134 is Willie Adams. He was working in delivery for a restaurant when he got very sick with COVID-19 last summer. He's now scared to do deliveries to hotels or hospitals, and he's seven months behind on rent. I worked for tips, so my income got cut. I wanted to make a fourth of the money that I was making

before the virus started and before I got sick. It takes Adams a week to finish his application for rental assistance. After getting help from a tech-savvy friend, tracking down his landlord, and making another trip to room 134. He says he'll feel a lot better once he knows the money will come through. And with millions of Americans behind on their rent, that's a feeling shared by many. NPR's Laurel Blomsley.

We began the episode with President Biden, saying the U.S. needed to vaccinate more people to keep the economic recovery going. On Thursday, he's expected to give a big speech announcing additional efforts to fight the pandemic. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Adi Kornish. Support for NPR and the following message come from the Kauffman Foundation, providing access to opportunities that help people achieve financial stability, upward mobility, and economic prosperity, regardless of race, gender, or geography. Kauffman.org.