Consider This from NPR - Does The U.S.-Saudi Alliance Have A Future?

Episode Date: October 13, 2022

President Biden met with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this summer — a man he had previously accused of ordering the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. But at the meeting, he met the Crown Prince with a fist bump. It all came as gas prices were rising globally, under pressure from Russia's war in Ukraine. One of Biden's goals was to convince Saudi Arabia's leaders to increase oil production. But this month, Saudi Arabia and the other oil producing countries of OPEC Plus decided to cut production by 2 million barrels a day. That move is expected to drive up gas prices, and put more money in Russia's pockets. It has prompted Democrats in Congress to call for the U.S. to rethink or even walk away from its seven-decade partnership with Saudi Arabia.NPR's International Affairs Correspondent Jackie Northam reports on where the relationship may be headed.And Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, explains why he plans to block future weapons sales to the Saudis.In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community. Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for NPR comes from NPR member stations and Eric and Wendy Schmidt through the Schmidt Family Foundation, working toward a healthy, resilient, secure world for all. On the web at theschmidt.org. President Biden took a lot of heat for his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this summer. That was in part because, as a candidate, Biden said he believed the crown prince had personally ordered the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist. Here's Biden during a CNN primary debate. Khashoggi was in fact murdered and dismembered, and I believe in the order of the crown prince. And I would make it very clear, we were not going to, in fact, sell more

weapons to them. We were going to, in fact, make them pay the price and make them, in fact, the pariah that they are. A U.S. intelligence report also concluded that the crown prince had approved the operation that led to the brutal killing of Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. But when he took office, Biden decided he wanted to, quote, reorient but not rupture the U.S.-Saudi relationship. As his national security advisor Jake Sullivan put it, The Middle East remains a strategically vital region. And as he has said, he's not going to leave an American vacuum here to China and Russia. So Biden did meet with the crown prince, Saudi Arabia's de facto leader,

during a trip to the Middle East, and it hit the jarring notes you might expect. Instead of a handshake, the two leaders bumped fists, which the publisher of The Washington Post described as shameful. Jamal Khashoggi's fiancee tweeted that the blood of Mohammed bin Salman's next victim was on Biden's hands. I know it's late, but thank you for being here. In a press briefing afterwards, Biden said he told the crown prince directly that he thought Mohammed bin Salman was personally responsible for Khashoggi's killing. I raised it at the top of the meeting, making it clear what I thought of it at the time and what I think of it now.

And it was exactly, I was straightforward and direct in discussing it. He also announced some diplomatic wins, including expected cooperation on oil production. At the time, gas prices were surging due in part to Russia's war in Ukraine, and Biden wanted Saudi Arabia to produce more oil. And I'm doing all I can to increase the supply for the United States of America, which I expect to happen. The Saudis share that urgency. And based on our discussions today, I expect we'll see further steps in the coming weeks. But fast forward to this month. We could be headed for more paint at the pump. OPEC Plus, which is led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, announced a steep cut

in oil production. Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries voted to cut production by two million barrels per day. That's expected to drive up gas prices, which also puts more money in Russia's pockets. Democrats in Congress have called the move hostile, appalling, and deeply cynical. Here's how Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut put it to CNN. For years, we have looked the other way, as Saudi Arabia has chopped up journalists, has engaged in massive political repression. For one reason, we wanted to know that when the chips were down, when there was a global crisis,

that the Saudis would choose us instead of Russia. Well, they didn't. They chose Russia. And there's got to be consequences for that. Consider this. The U.S.-Saudi partnership is more than 70 years old. And now some Democrats say it's time to leave it behind. From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang. It's Thursday, October 13th. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies.

Send, spend, or receive money internationally, and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today or visit wise.com. T's and C's apply. Support for NPR and the following message come from Carnegie Corporation of New York, working to reduce political polarization through philanthropic support for education, democracy, and peace. More information at carnegie.org. It's Consider This from NPR. The U.S.-Saudi relationship has been tested before. There was the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, of course.

Plus, Saudis had funded extremist groups throughout the region. Remember, most of the 9-11 hijackers were Saudi nationals. But things feel especially tenuous now. The number two Democrat in the Senate, Dick Durbin of Illinois, tweeted that it was time to imagine a world without the alliance. President Biden did not go that far, but he told CNN that it is time to rethink the relationship. When the House and Senate gets back, there's going to be some consequences for what they've done with Russia. NPR international affairs correspondent Jackie Northam

has been looking into where the relationship might be headed and picks it up from here. It wasn't just the sheer size of the cut in oil production by OPEC+. It was also the timing, coming about three months after President Biden visited Saudi Arabia to lobby against such a reduction, and just ahead of the midterm elections here in the U.S., where prices at the gas pump could have an effect on voters. Jonathan Panikoff is director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. It feels punitive against the Biden administration. And I think it's hard to think it's otherwise because the Saudis aren't naive about the U.S. political situation. It may not have been the

core reason for doing it, but they absolutely were happy to do it. Faraz Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, says Saudi Arabia has legitimate business reasons for the cut. They're seeking higher prices now in case a global recession reduces demand later. And he says that despite concerted U.S. attempts to talk them out of a production cut, all 24 members of OPEC Plus were on board with it. This is a decision that was not just Saudi, it was unanimous and it was driven by economics and market dynamics rather than politics. Russia is co-chair of OPEC Plus. Its deputy prime minister, Alexander Novak, who is sanctioned by the U.S., sat at the table when the cuts were announced. The production cuts mean higher revenue for Russia to support the war in Ukraine.

Jason Bordoff is director of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. Many in D.C. view the Saudis now as aligning themselves with Russia at a time when Russian troops are killing Ukrainians and reduced Russian energy exports are plunging much of the world into an energy crisis. The Atlantic Council's Panikov says this incident represents a profound shift in U.S.-Saudi relations, and much of that has to do with Saudi's de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

I don't think we've fully accepted the notion that he is a different leader than we've ever dealt with, and so we're going to have to have a different relationship. Panikoff says the Crown Prince is a transactional leader and that the U.S. will have to decide if it wants to spend time and energy rebuilding its strategic relationship with the kingdom or become more transactional as well. Panikoff says that could affect Saudi Arabia's security guarantees. Maybe we don't sell the more advanced aircraft. Maybe the training exercises are on older generation hardware. And maybe, yes, we remove some Patriot batteries and say, look, we recognize your security. We're not trying to diminish it. We have to balance our

security goals as well. Some members of Congress want to freeze weapons sales to Saudi Arabia or to initiate price fixing cases against OPEC+. But Maksad, with the Middle East Institute, says the Gulf region is no longer beholden to the U.S. and has the right to look for other options. And so they are building bridges to China, which, by the way, accounts for over a quarter of oil exports from Saudi Arabia, and also with Russia that had been sort of expanding its role in the Middle East.

That reporting was from NPR's Jackie Northam. One sign that this isn't likely to blow over quickly is the pair of sharply worded statements exchanged by Saudi Arabia and the White House. Saudi Arabia said its decision to decrease oil supply was driven by economic reasons, and it rejected accusations that it was, quote, taking sides in the war in Ukraine. John Kirby, the National Security Council spokesman, responded Thursday morning by accusing Saudi Arabia of strong-arming other oil-producing countries to agree to the cut. In a statement, he said,

Other OPEC nations communicated to us privately that they also disagreed with the Saudi decision, but felt coerced to support Saudi's direction. One of the Senate Democrats who has come out the loudest against Saudi Arabia has been Bob Menendez of New Jersey. He chairs the Foreign Relations Committee, and he spoke to my colleague Mary Louise Kelly about how he thinks the U.S. should move forward. President Biden says he is re-evaluating the relationship. As I gather are you, you have vowed to block future weapons sales to the Saudis,

and that's not an empty threat. You have veto power over foreign arms sales as the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. I suppose it prompts a question, though, can the U.S. afford to cross Saudi Arabia in that way when the relationship is, of course, not just about oil, but about counterterrorism and regional security and so on? My answer, Mary Louise, would be can the U.S. afford not to? The reality is that the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has decided to side with the authoritarians in the world. He's decided to side with Putin. This is not only about Saudi Arabia making more money, which they will because the reduction in supply, the demand will still be there.

And so, therefore, the prices will go up, so they will make more money. But really, he's helping Putin here. He's helping Putin in multiple ways. Number one, at a time of global energy security challenges, he is cutting back the resource to help meet that challenge. So this is about Europe and every other part of the world that's facing the challenge of energy security. It's also about fueling Putin's war machine. He's decided to join with Putin and authoritarians like him. Although this wasn't just the Saudis going rogue, right? This was a unanimous vote, OPEC plus, every single member on board. The Saudis lead the cartel. And if Saudi Arabia wasn't there, believe me, the others would not have been

there either. So as far as I'm concerned, there are many things the president can consider. Certainly the arms sales. I led in 2019 when the Trump administration decided to make a false emergency and send over $8 billion in weapons to Saudi Arabia and the UAE. I led 22 separate joint resolutions of disapproval successfully to stop those sales. So arms sales is just one element of it. But also, you know, the president has to decide whether Saudi Arabia and the crown prince are really subject to sovereign immunity. There are 9-11 families that have cases in court. The court's waiting to hear what the U.S. position on that. Whether or not the OPEC cannot be challenged in court as a cartel, whether we are going to

continue to say to the Saudis, we'll support you and defend you against Iran, which is an existential threat to them. The Russians aren't going to do that. The Russians are in bed with the Iranians pleading with them to give them help. So I think there's a lot of things that the Saudis have to think about and recalibrate their decision-making as to whose side are you on. That was Democratic Senator Bob Menendez, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, speaking with my colleague Mary Louise Kelly. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang.