Consider This from NPR - 'Double disapprovers' could decide the election. Here's what they say

Episode Date: June 7, 2024

With the presidential election approaching, some voters are wondering how we again ended up with Donald Trump and Joe Biden as the presumptive nominees.Recent focus groups with swing voters put into words why some people are turning away from the main candidates, and polling gives us an insight into what this could mean in November.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

For all six of you, by a show of fingers, who wishes that neither Trump nor Biden were running this year? You had a different set of candidates to choose from. All six of you. That's Rich Tao of Engageus, a public research firm. NPR partnered with him and Sago Market Research to hear from voters. Because voters like this group, people who are down in different ways on both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, are likely going to be the people who decide this year's election. Something that came up again and again during the session was a variation of this thought.

I find it hard to believe that in the entire nation of millions and millions of people that we are right back to the line of two people. I don't understand how we end up with just two people. Tao conducted focus groups with 12 swing voters who live mostly in swing states. All of them had switched their votes from Trump to Biden in 2020. Now, it's important to point out that Tao was talking to these voters before former President Trump was convicted on 34 felony fraud charges. If Trump is convicted of a felony in his New York trial or multiple felonies, would that affect your willingness to vote for him?

Probably, yeah. It would. Tell me about that for a second. Then I wouldn't vote for anyone. But here's what's interesting. That voter, Alicia Kaye, was the only one who said that a conviction would keep her from voting for Trump. More significant seemed to be the fact that these all-important swing voters dislike both of their options. So let's start with President Biden.

For the first word or phrase that comes to mind when you hear President Biden. Struggling. Concerned. Okay. Senile. Patriotic. I would want to say senile too. Old.

Not great for Biden. But Trump didn't fare any better in these voters' assessments. Next person. First thing that comes to mind. Former President Trump. Eugene. Jackass. Bob. Unhinged. Jackass. Bob.

Unhinged. Sherilyn. Not an option. Nakia. Too honest. Offensive, definitely. All right. Asa.

Frightening. Rob. Uncensored. Still, almost certainly, one of these two men is going to be elected president. All right, so I'm going to try one more time. Is there anybody that any of you is excited about voting for? And not because they're running against somebody you detest. I'll take that as a no.

I don't want you to overthink it. I'm really thinking of a person like, hey, I'm just really excited that so-and-so is running. That's the person I'm looking to see if there's anybody out there any of you are excited about. And the answer I'm getting is a no. All right. Consider this. The persuadable voters who could determine the winner of the 2024 presidential election would rather vote for anybody but the two men on the ticket. Coming up, we'll dig into what that could mean for the candidates and the country. From NPR, I'm Scott Detrow. It's Consider This from NPR.

Many Americans say they simply do not want to vote for either President Biden or former President Trump this year. NPR correspondents Mara Liason and Susan Davis wanted to know a little bit more about these voters and what, if anything, would help them decide who they'd vote for in this election. To find out, NPR partnered with focus group expert Rich Tao of the public opinion research firm Engageus and Sago, a market research firm. Tao talked to 12 voters in two groups. Every one of them had switched their votes from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020, and they mostly reside in the swing states where that matters, the states that will determine the election. Mara Eliason and Susan Davis join me now in the studio to talk about what they found. It's like a reunion here. Hey, thanks for coming. Yeah, happy to be here. Great to see you.

Nice to talk to you. So, Sue, let's start with you. Can you tell us more about these voters and why you wanted to hear from them directly? Sure. I mean, you most commonly hear these people referred to as double haters, although that's not quite accurate. It's probably more accurate to call them double disapprovers. But it's fun to say haters. It is fun to say haters. It's easier. It's clearer. And according to our own polling, the latest NPR PBS NewsHour Marist poll, they make up about 14 percent of the electorate in this election. And in that survey, it shows them nearly evenly divided between the two candidates, Biden and Trump. The last time the double hater or double disapprover voting percentage was this high was back in the 2016 election between Trump and Hillary Clinton. And they broke pretty decisively towards Trump then.

It was a much smaller slice in 2020, only about 3 percent. But it's been driven way back up, largely driven by President Biden's approval ratings going down. And one thing to remember here, Scott, this is not an exact science. This is what we would call anecdata. Polls use a scientific method to tell us how many voters feel this way, but a focus group gets at why they do. And that is what we wanted to hear more about. Right. So Mara, though, what exactly exactly how can we quantify the negativity toward both Biden and Trump for these two? I think we can quantify it as very high.

All 12 of them said that they'd replace both of these candidates on the ballot if they could. For most of these voters, the choice seems to be between the guy they think is too old and the guy they think is too dangerous. There is a difference, however, in the way that these voters describe each candidate. Richter did some word association exercises. And when it came to Biden, people said, were more ambivalent. One of them said, I feel sorry for him. Somebody said, not a fan. Somebody else said, well, he's trying. But for Trump, the adjectives were much harsher. Somebody said they'd vote for a brick rather than him. They said Trump only looks out for himself and his rich friends. So that suggests that Biden has a little bit more potential. The red flags are clearly bigger for Biden. He's the incumbent. So far, this is a referendum on the incumbent election. He wants to turn it into a choice. He always says, don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative. But it shows that he still has an opportunity to bring some of these people back.

They're not as angry about him as they are about Trump. OK. So, Sue, I feel like this clear theme that we've heard is voters saying, I wish there were other choices. I feel like even when you talk to voters, they say, well, if these are the two choices, both of these men at this point are the party's presumptive nominees. Unless something wildly off the charge happens between now and November, these are the choices Americans have. So given that, which way are people like this leaning? If the election was today, Biden has a clear advantage. Seven of the 12 said they would vote for Joe Biden today. But the real risk here is third parties. When these

same voters were given the options of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein, the support for Biden dropped down to five of the 12. And that would suggest that third parties or other options on the ballot are a bigger risk to the incumbent president. It's also interesting, Scott, because when these voters were asked who they thought would win, not who they want to win, but if they had to place a bet on who would win, they were much more decisive. Eight of the 12 said they believe Donald Trump was going to win this election. And I think that highlights how even among likely Biden voters, people say they will vote for him. They still have very low confidence he can win. Samara, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are very different candidates. I think that's pretty

clear. But they are also offering very different visions for this country. If voters are not satisfied with the people themselves, how do they could cite one thing that Biden had pledged to do in his second term. They do know what Trump has pledged to do. People said, well, he said he's going to be a dictator on day one or he's going to have no qualms about using the Justice Department to prosecute his enemies or, you know, deport millions of illegal immigrants. So they're really drawing a blank when it comes to what Biden has pledged to do. And what we think we know from covering politics for years and years is that the guy with the more positive vision of the future is supposed to be the one within advantage. And right now, President Biden has really failed to communicate that to voters. Here's what some of our focus group participants said about what Trump wants to do in the second term. Juanita, what does he pledge to do?

Take America back. Fix our economy. Create more jobs. Kimberly? Cut off aid to Ukraine. But also he did just say that he was considering legislation to control birth control. Brian? Repeal the ACA and privatize Social Security. Bob? Lower corporate taxes even more. What was yours, Jennifer?

I think he's still wanting to fix the immigration issues. So he's saying, you know, maybe he's not so much about the wall, but he's going to fix the immigration issues. Now, some of those were negatives for these people, obviously. Yeah. This is really interesting because the first Biden term has been full of concrete policy, and Trump is by and large running on this idea of retribution and revenge. He's not out there giving white papers about what he wants to do if he returns to the Oval Office. But the flip side seems to be what voters are hearing. That's right. And one of the things that is going to characterize

this election is negative partisanship. Because both of these guys are unpopular, they're going to be relying on convincing people that they need to go into the voting booth to stop someone from being president, not necessarily because they're thrilled about the candidate they're voting for. So you're going to hear a lot of messages about all the horrible things that Trump wants to do from the Biden campaign and vice versa. So this is interesting. On one hand, voters seem to really dislike Donald Trump. On the other hand, they seem to be ambivalent or disappointed or not having much of a impression at all at Joe Biden. And yet Joe Biden is here viewed as the weaker of the two candidates. Mara, how does a candidate change that between now and November? Well, I think you're going to see Biden trying, he already has been trying, to turn this election

from a referendum on the incumbent, which is what re-election campaigns are usually about, into a choice. He wants it to be a choice between him and Donald Trump. He wants to remind people of all the things they didn't like about Trump. And the reason why I think this focus group and our polling shows that he has more of an uphill climb than Trump is because it's almost June. He spent tens of millions of dollars trying to do this. And so far, he has not been able to change enough people's minds. Yes, there's still five months left. And the Biden campaign constantly has not been able to change enough people's minds. Yes, there's still

five months left. And the Biden campaign constantly says people still haven't tuned in. They're really not focused on Donald Trump. But at some point, if he's going to change this election from a referendum on the incumbent, him, and he's a historically unpopular incumbent, to a choice between two unpopular people, he doesn't have a whole lot of time left. Marc Eliason, Susan Davis, thanks a lot. Thanks, Scott. Thank you. This episode was produced by Brianna Scott and Mark Rivers.

It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Kelsey Snell. Our executive producer is Sammy Yannigan. Before we go, a word of thanks to our Consider This Plus listeners who support the show. You make it possible for NPR journalists to report the stories you hear on the podcast. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. To learn more, you can visit plus.npr.org. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Scott Detrow.