Consider This from NPR - Early Voting Points To Possible Record Turnout, With New States In Play

Episode Date: October 28, 2020

More than 74 million people have already voted. Michael McDonald of the Florida Elections Project tells NPR that could indicate the U.S. is headed for record turnout in a modern election. Maya King of POLITICO has been following the early vote in Georgia, where black voters came close to electing the nation's first black female governor in 2018. NPR's Miles Parks and Pam Fessler explain why it may be too late to vote by mail — and how legal challenges are still complicating the rules around early voting in some states. Additional reporting this episode from NPR's Greg Allen and Barbara Sprunt; Stephen Fowler with Georgia Public Broadcasting and Jen Rice with Houston Public Media.In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment that will help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

This message comes from Indiana University. Indiana University is committed to moving the world forward, working to tackle some of society's biggest challenges. Nine campuses, one purpose. Creating tomorrow, today. More at iu.edu. Election day is less than a week away. This year, of course, it is more like election season. More than 74 million people have already voted. Y'all know the lines are going to be long. You know, they're shutting down a lot of locations. We only have one absentee ballot drop-off location in the entire county,

which is asinine to think about. Mark Stanley, he voted earlier this month at Texas Southern University, a historically black institution in Houston. He waited in a long line to do it. So I said, instead of thinking about all the politics and thinking about how many ways they can shut your voice down, I said, the best way to do it is to go out, get it taken care of already, have my mask on, make sure we're well protected, and make sure that our voice is heard properly. Get it taken care of already. Well, a lot of Americans seem to have that attitude. That number, 74 million votes, that is up from 71 million just hours ago.

In fact, so many people appear to be racing to cast early votes. The number will almost certainly be higher by the time you hear this. But the bottom line, voters have already cast more than half of the total votes counted in 2016. We've already passed any raw number of early votes in any prior election in U.S. history. Michael McDonald runs the U.S. Elections Project at the University of Florida, which tracks the early vote. He predicted last year that 150 million people would vote in this election, which would make it the highest turnout since 1908.

If anything, I think by the end of the week, I'll probably be upping that forecast. Consider this. The early vote doesn't tell us much about who's going to win. What it does tell us is that enthusiasm for this election on both sides is off the charts. Coming up, what that enthusiasm looks like in Georgia, which Democrats believe is in play for the first time in decades, and what you need to know about voting if you haven't done it yet. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It is Wednesday, October 28th. This message comes from Indiana University. Indiana University drives discovery, innovation, and creative endeavors to solve some of society's greatest challenges. Groundbreaking investments in neuroscience,

climate change, Alzheimer's research, and cybersecurity mean IU sets new standards to move the world forward, unlocking cures and solutions that lead to a better future for all. More at iu.edu forward. Voting is crucial, and I don't give a damn how you look at it. Is this a man? It was we, the people. The land of the free and the home of the brave. Not we, the white male citizens. Misrepresentative democracy. A new series about voting in America from NPR's ThruLine. Listen now.

It's Consider This from NPR. One thing we know about voting early, it does not necessarily mean voting quickly. I didn't expect to wait this long, but you know, my grandfather was from Georgia. I would have waited all day if I had to, just from the experiences that he used to have. Adrienne Crowley waited two hours to vote in Atlanta this month. A lot of Black voters in Georgia did the same thing in the state's last election. That was the midterm two years ago. So we know in 2018, when Stacey Abrams launched her gubernatorial bid, she registered a record number of voters for that time, more than 200,000. Maya King has been reporting on the early vote in Georgia for Politico. She says, think back to 2018, when Democrat Stacey Abrams had a chance to be the nation's first black female governor.

It really geared up excitement and engagement among Democrats in the state who were relatively confident that she would be successful. And then... Well, growing allegations of voter suppression are emerging in the hard-fought race for governor in Georgia. Aside from the dwindling number of voting locations in Georgia in that election, a number of voters found they were removed from the rolls, which set them up for a confusing process of filling out provisional ballots that might not have been counted. At the end of that election, Brian Kemp, who was elected, was also the state's secretary of state. Yeah, the Republican candidate for governor of Georgia was simultaneously in charge of the election there. And now civil rights groups are suing him,

claiming that Kemp's office put more than 53,000 voter registrations on hold. Which called into question just how fair this election really was and the way that it was administered. Stacey Abrams lost that election by fewer than 100,000 votes. This year, King says voters lining up in Georgia are aware of that margin. Stacey Abrams lost that election by fewer than 100,000 votes. This year, King says voters lining up in Georgia are aware of that margin. And it's something that I heard repeatedly on the ground, almost as if Stacey Abrams was a warning for them in making sure that their vote was counted and that it was done so fairly.

The Biden campaign seems to be aware of the enthusiasm in Georgia, too. Maya, thank you for that incredible introduction. My name is Joe Biden. I'm Jill Biden's husband, and I am Kamala's running mate. Biden campaigning at a drive-in rally in Atlanta this week. Y'all think I'm kidding, don't you? Folks! As a Georgian, I will note the Georgia-friendly use of y'all there, and also how notable Biden's stopping in Georgia is, this close to the election. Presidential campaign staffers factor in the early vote. They know how many likely voters have already voted for their candidate and how many the campaign still needs to turn out. There aren't a lot of pundits who would have guessed four years ago that a Democratic

candidate for president in 2020 would be campaigning in Georgia on the final week of the election. Winning Georgia could upend the electoral map and make it possible for Biden to lose another crucial swing state but still win the presidency. Polls show it could be within reach for Biden. The last Democrat who won Georgia? Bill Clinton in 1992. Still, Republicans are pretty confident that Georgia will remain a red state after November. A few lawmakers that I spoke to said their voters are also voting early. So you have enthusiasm really on both sides. Maya King of Politico, she spoke to my colleague Adi Cornish. Something else to think about when it comes to the early vote.

In a few crucial swing states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, election officials already have stacks and stacks of ballots that have been returned by mail. But they cannot start counting those ballots until November 3rd. And with so many early votes cast by mail, that process could take time. Which is why we may not know who won those states on election night. The bottom line is the unprecedented early vote this year introduces all kinds of uncertainty. Well, to talk more about what we do know and don't, I spoke to my colleagues Pam Fessler and Miles Parks. They both cover voting for NPR. So, Miles, let me start with you.

We just noted tens of millions of Americans have already voted. Do we know how many more, how many more still have ballots left to cast? Yeah, specifically on the vote by mail numbers, we're up to 46 million vote by mail votes turned in according to the U.S. Elections Project. But more than 90 million vote by mail ballots were requested this year. So you do the math there, and that leaves, you know, well over 40 million absentee ballots that have been requested but sent back in. And a basic question, but we are one week out. Is it too late to vote by mail? The answer is probably yes, unless you're in one of those states that allows for you to have your ballot just postmarked by Election Day and not actually two election officials on Election Day.

The Postal Service has said for months that for voters to be sure those ballots are counted, ballot just postmarked by election day and not actually to election officials on election day. The Postal Service has said for months that for voters to be sure those ballots are counted, they need to be mailed a week or more in advance of any deadlines. So now the messaging from local election officials is kind of shifting from, you know, mail those ballots in to don't mail those ballots and find a way to vote in person. Most states allow for voters to turn in that mail ballot in person in some way, whether it's dropping it off at a secure drop box, dropping it off at an elections office or a polling precinct, or just voting in person on election day instead. Voters should just check their local rules depending on where they live. Okay, a really important message there for all of us who still need to get out there and vote, do it in person, find an official election drop box, maybe do not walk it to your regular mailbox.

Pam, let me ask you about the legal side of this. There's just this huge number of lawsuits unfolding, particularly over voting by mail. Where do you think stand with the remaining legal challenges? Well, one of the biggest cases involved when mail-in ballots have to be received in the state of Wisconsin. And the U.S. Supreme Court said the deadline should be Election Day. And it rejected Democrats' arguments that voters should have some leeway because of potential postal delays. The Democrats had wanted ballots to count if received within three days after Election Day, as long as they were postmarked by Election Day. And that's an issue in two other cases before the court.

Republicans are trying to block North Carolina's rule allowing ballots to arrive up to nine days after Election Day, and Pennsylvania's plan to count ballots that arrive up to three days after Election Day. We don't know what's going to happen in those cases, but the court does not seem inclined to accept these extensions, and that could mean thousands of mail-in ballots end up being rejected if, in fact, they are not mailed in on time. Another question to you, Pam, which is

the president, that he keeps telling his supporters to go watch the polls, and that's prompting concerns about militia, about other unauthorized groups who maybe are intimidating voters? Are we seeing actual signs that that will happen? Is that happening? Well, not yet. Although President Trump did again tell his supporters this week to go watch the polls for any kind of wrongdoing. And election and law enforcement authorities have been preparing for possible unrest. They're training poll workers. They're stepping up police presence in some areas. And they're also reminding the public that intimidating or blocking voters is against the law. That said, with all this early voting we've had already, there haven't been any significant issues. There were a couple of cases of some boisterous Trump supporters outside polling

places in Virginia and Florida, which unsettled some voters. But for the most part, voting's gone relatively smoothly with, you know, the exception of those extremely long lines. Which prompts a question back to you, Miles Parks. What should voters expect if they are planning to vote on Election Day itself, November 3rd? I mean, I'm wondering if all of the people voting early, does that mean Election Day itself might be a little bit easier to manage? Right. All those early and absentee votes, they don't need to be cast on Election Day, but that does not mean this is going to be a picnic. You know, you think about the past few weeks, you think about all those in-person early votes, all those mail votes spread out over those past couple weeks, you add all of them up together,

and you get roughly the same amount of people who are going to want to vote all on that same day, on election day. That will mean really long lines in some places. And it means voters and election officials are more vulnerable to variables. You know, if a computer system breaks down in one county or there's horrible weather somewhere, with early voting, if that happens, a voter can say, you know, maybe I'll come back tomorrow or the next day. The voters on election day are really at the whim of whatever happens there. So they need to come a little bit more prepared, probably. NPR's Miles Parks and Pam Fessler. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.