Consider This from NPR - Exploring what the early days of a second Trump administration could look like.

Episode Date: November 7, 2024

In just over 70 days, Donald Trump, the 45th President of the United States will become the 47th, and he'll begin implementing his vision of an all powerful chief executive.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey, a quick word before the show. The 2024 presidential election is over check so you can keep a grip on what's happening. If that sounds valuable to you, please help make it possible. Go to donate.npr.org to get started. If you're already a supporter, let me take this moment to say thank you. And if you're not, the link again is donate.npr.org. Thank you, and now to the show. In the early hours of Wednesday morning, Donald Trump took the stage in West Palm Beach, Florida, thanked his supporters, and walked them through some of what he plans to do when he gets back to the White House. America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate. We have taken back control of the Senate. Wow, that's great. That mandate he referred to is part of what he'll lean on

as he implements his vision for America. I will govern by a simple motto, promises made, promises kept. We're going to keep our promises. Over his nearly two-year campaign, Trump made a lot of promises, one of them an immigration crackdown. We want to have borders. We want to have security. We want to have things be good, safe. For a second Trump administration, being safe is defined by mass deportations and closing the border. We have the greatest people also. Maybe that's the most important thing. Trump has already identified tech billionaire Elon Musk for a high-profile role in government. Another name at the top of the list, the controversial Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

And he's going to help make America healthy again. And now he's a great guy and he really means it. He wants to do some things and we're going to let him go to it. Consider this. In just over 70 days, Donald Trump, the 45th president of the United States, will become the 47th and he'll begin implementing his vision

of an all-powerful chief executive. Coming up, we explore what the early days of a second Trump administration could look like. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. On the TED Radio Hour, on December 24th, NASA's Parker Solar Probe will touch the sun. The spacecraft will hit the closest approach ever to the sun. Astrophysicist Nora Wawafi leads the mission. We will be making history.

To this day, it's still like magic to me. Ideas about the sun. That's on the TED Radio Hour podcast from NPR. Joe Biden's on his way out. Donald Trump's on his way back. Want to know what's happening as the presidential transition is underway, the NPR Politics Podcast has you covered with the latest news and analysis. Listen to the NPR Politics Podcast. Hey, everyone. I'm Bea Parker, a host of the podcast Code Switch. And on my show, I get to dig into all of the facets of being a Black woman, from honoring my ancestors to exploring representation in reality TV. Code Switch is a place where I think out loud about how race and identity are connected. Join me on the Code Switch podcast from NPR. It's Consider This from NPR. Through the months and months of stump speeches Donald Trump has given in his quest

to return to the White House, he's made a lot of promises, especially promises about what he will do on day one. Day one of Trump's second term is coming up quickly in a little more than two months. To hear more about what day one might look like and what he might do in the early days of his administration, I spoke to NPR political correspondent Daniel Kurtzleben. So day one, what's his plan? Well, we don't have a specific plan plan, but like you alluded to there, we do know what he has said will be his priorities based on what he would do on quote day one. This is a thing he said a lot in his campaign speeches. On day one, I will do X. In fact, here he was this fall at a town hall in Flint, Michigan. You're going to hear Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders here asking Trump

a question. Tell us what you will do on day one to help protect our country. Day one, we're doing two things. Closing the border and drill, baby drill. And this was common for him. Border security and drilling came up over and over for him as day one priorities. Yeah. And as I've listened to him say that over and over, I have wondered what that actually means. The first piece, closing the border. What does that actually look like? You know, it's unclear what this means. As with many Trump policies, it's a simple slogan that gets applause, but it has few to no details attached to it.

Now, I've asked the campaign what this would look like, but they did not explain in response either. So it could be a few things. There's Title 42, which is the shorthand for the policy by which he and later the Biden administration used to stop and deport migrants. But that was a public health measure, and the COVID emergency is over. So it's not clear if or how Trump could use that again. He might also try to end the Biden policy of allowing people to make appointments for asylum using something called CBP1. Trump has railed against this, but also it's not clear that's what he means either by, quote, close the border. So that's something we're still unclear on. He has said over and over and seems to mean that he wants mass deportations. Yes. He's made that promise. It was central on his campaign. Yes, very central. He has said this is also something he would start immediately. And he has said he would use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to do those deportations of undocumented people. But there could be some really big

hurdles to that. One is legal. You will have groups like the ACLU come together to fight deportation to say, for example, that it's unconstitutional. And even if Trump did have a legal way to do it, there are also logistical problems. There just aren't enough ICE personnel to deport millions upon millions of people. And even beyond that, you would need some place to hold all of those detainees at some point. There are diplomatic hurdles. You can't just put undocumented people on a plane and send them to Mexico City. You would need to work it out with the Mexican government and say, hey, we are sending X number of people to you. I could go on.

There's economic issues. Even if he did do all of this, the economic fallout could be massive. Now, I say all of that. None of it is to say that deportations won't happen. I'm not saying that at all. This has, as you pointed out, been the central promise of his campaign. Really what I'm saying here is that those deportations might not be as rapid, as easy, or as big as he and his supporters hope. But you can bet he'll do something. This was central for him. It's just unclear what he'll be able to do. Circle back, Danielle, to the other thing. We just heard him say he would do on day one, drill, baby, drill. What's he going to be able to do there?

Well, all the time in his stump speech, he said he would, quote, unleash U.S. energy. But the thing is, it's been unleashed. Oil production is at an all-time high in the U.S. Now, the administration can issue more oil and gas permits, but it doesn't have power over private industry. It doesn't have power over global markets. So, yeah, Trump can make it easier to drill. That might bring prices down in the short term, but that doesn't mean anything for what's going to happen in the long term. That was NPR's Daniel Kurtzleben on how Trump might approach immigration and energy in a second term. The Trump transition team is also focused on how they'll handle the Defense Department and the State Department. To learn more about that, how they may be reshaped when Trump takes office, I spoke with NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and NPR diplomatic correspondent Michelle Kellerman.

What are you hearing about what may be in store for state? Well, what we know so far is that Trump's former point person on Iran, Brian Hook, is going to lead the transition team over here in the office, is ready for his team. As for who is going to be Secretary of State, there are kind of a few names in the mix. One is Rick Grinnell. He was Trump's ambassador to Germany and then acting director of national intelligence. He's been a fixture on the campaign trail, very close to the Trump family, and has some business deals in the Balkans, for instance, with Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. He's known to be quite caustic, Grinnell, and he dresses down his critics, especially in the media. Now, Trump could decide to keep him closer to him in the White House as national security advisor,

which is a job that doesn't need Senate confirmation. But with the Senate held by Republicans, getting Grinnell confirmed probably won't be a problem. But there are some senators who do want the job. There's Bill Hagerty of Tennessee. He's a former businessman who was Trump's ambassador to Japan, so he knows the State Department well. And there's Marco Rubio of Florida, who appears to be in the running, and I've seen him a lot on Fox News. That's kind of the way that folks auditioned for Trump in the past. Tom Bowman, what about at the Pentagon? Well, one of the big names we're hearing, Mary Louise's Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas. He's a former army officer with combat time in Iraq and Afghanistan, well-respected.

He's advocated, however, using the military in a support role against protesters in American cities. It's somewhat controversial. Now, Axios is reporting Cotton would prefer to stay in the Senate, where Republicans have taken control, and try for a leadership post. Now, if not Cotton, another member of Congress for the Pentagon chief could be Congressman Mike Waltz of Florida, who also served multiple tours in Afghanistan as a Green Beret, worked for Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates at the Pentagon as well. Right. And Waltz actually was on NPR this morning. They talked to him on Morning Edition. I want to play a little bit of what he said because he weighed in on Pentagon spending and personnel.

There is a whole slew of new technologies from Silicon Valley and elsewhere that are really chomping at the bit to help with our defense and security issues, and they can't break through the bureaucracy. So I think we do need new leadership. We need a culture change. We need to focus the Defense Department on being the meritocracy that it has always been. Well, you know, he raises a good point, Mary Louise, on high-tech gear. I was at an Army training exercise in Louisiana recently, and this Brigade of the 101st was using small drones, electronic decoys, cyber capabilities, and Army officials want to quickly get this gear into the hands of soldiers. The Pentagon purchasing rules, however, just take too long.

I heard something else in that tape that I want you to go back to when he talked about focusing the Defense Department on being a meritocracy. What's he getting at? Yeah, that was interesting. The military has always prided itself on being a meritocracy, but there have been complaints from the Trump camp that the Pentagon is too focused on diversity, too woke, as they say. So it seems Congressman Walz is picking up on that by mentioning meritocracy. So what does that mean in practical terms? Do you remove certain high-level military officers and replace them? Last time in the waning days of the first Trump administration, they tried to remove certain officers and replace them with, quote, their officers, but time ran out.

Okay. Michelle, back to you. The incoming Trump administration obviously is going to be walking right into two major wars underway, Ukraine, the Middle East. At the State Department, what plans are being laid for how those conflicts will be handled? Yeah, I mean, Ukraine is the big concern for the Biden team. They're trying to get as much aid out the door as possible before they leave office and get the Europeans to take more of a lead. Trump has said he would end the war quickly, but it's not clear, you know, what kind of deal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can take at the moment, since Russian President Vladimir Putin will feel emboldened by Trump's victory. So there's just a lot of

nervousness around Ukraine right now. In the Middle East, the Biden administration has just seen its influence kind of evaporate overnight. They had been pushing the Israelis to get more aid into Gaza, even holding out the possibility of withholding U.S. military aid. They're also pushing for a ceasefire in Lebanon. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might, you know, just want to wait them out at this point. What about closer to home? Because another thing Trump has talked about during the campaign is using the National Guard, using active duty military to round up and deport undocumented immigrants. Can he do that? What do we know? Well, all we know is what Trump has said. He says on day one, he will begin removing millions of undocumented migrants. He's talked about using the National Guard for such an effort may be active duty military.

People I talk with say the military could be used in a support role to help local authorities. Now, this could be disruptive for the military as far as planning costs. Some troops may decide, Mary Louise, not to take part. Michelle, last word to you. I always hesitate to ask about the mood of a whole department because it's big and I'm sure there are a lot of competing views. But what is the mood at the State Department? How are the rank and file reacting to this week's news? of State. And it was pretty chaotic. The department was hollowed out. Tillerson himself was pushed out after a year for not being loyal enough. This time around, the Trump team seems to be more ready. I mean, the chapter on the State Department in Project 2025 was written by a former Trump appointee who said that the State Department has too many people who are left wing and who disagree with

the conservative president's policy. So the goal is to get as many political appointees in office on day one. So there's just a feeling that a lot of people are going to be pushed out very quickly. That was NPR's Michelle Kellerman and Tom Bowman. This episode was produced by Lina Muhammad. It was edited by Courtney Dorning, Megan Pratz, Andrew Sussman, and John Ketchum. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. On NPR's Wildcard podcast, comedian Seth Meyers talks frankly about his early career. I was far more temperamental when I was younger, and things ran very hot at SNL.

And there were definitely times where my instincts were to say something that would have been relationship-ending to people. I'm Rachel Martin. Seth Meyers is on Wildcard, the show where cards control the conversation. The ocean floor is abundant with minerals needed to power electric cars and other green technologies, but mining those minerals may harm coastal communities. These metals that are going to be dug out of our ocean will not benefit anyone from it. On the Sunday story from Up First, a look at the opportunity and dangers of mining the ocean floor. Listen now on the Up First podcast from NPR.