Consider This from NPR - Florida In The Political Spotlight

Episode Date: June 27, 2023

When it comes to American politics, Florida regularly finds its way to the center of the conversation. Often important, if not pivotal in presidential elections, Florida is home to former President Trump and his strongest opponent in the Republican presidential primary for 2024, Governor Ron DeSantis. As he campaigns for the nomination Gov. DeSantis has taken center stage in some of the most contentious battles of the culture war, those around trans rights, book censorship and immigration. But just how did the Sunshine State end up the center of the political universe? NPR's Political Correspondent Kelsey Snell and National Correspondent Greg Allen explain.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

This message comes from Indiana University. Indiana University is committed to moving the world forward, working to tackle some of society's biggest challenges. Nine campuses, one purpose. Creating tomorrow, today. More at iu.edu. When it comes to American politics, Florida often finds its way to the center of the conversation. Former President Donald Trump is in federal custody. The Walt Disney Company has filed a First Amendment lawsuit against Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In what's being called a day without immigrants in protest over Florida's new immigration law. Home to former President Donald Trump, Florida is also home to his toughest opponent in the crowded 2024 Republican primary race, the state's governor,

Ron DeSantis. He's taken center stage in some of the most contentious fights in the country's culture wars, like gender-affirming care. A woman should not be in a locker room having to worry about someone from the opposite sex being in their locker room. Immigration. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis' office telling us that the Florida legislature funded 12 million dollars to transport undocumented immigrants out of their state to states they deemed sanctuary. Book censorship in public schools. A Florida school district has pulled 176 books from its libraries. Right now, Florida ranks second among states with the most book bans,

and some believe that could grow. There's a history of Florida making political headlines, not just for the debates, but for decisive political moments. Remember the recounts? It wouldn't be a major election here in the state of Florida without last second drama, razor thin margins, and get ready for it, a recount. One in 2018 that left a Senate seat hanging in the balance. And famously before that, the year 2000. The nation awaits the Florida recount. If the count stands, Bush wins the Electoral College. That recount was never completed.

It was halted by the Supreme Court, writing American history in the process and effectively declaring George Bush the 43rd president of the United States. Consider this. Florida's place in the political spotlight isn't a fluke. We'll explain why after the break. From NPR, I'm Juana Summers. It's Tuesday, June 27th.

This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally, and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today or visit WISE.com. T's and C's apply. Support for NPR comes from NPR member stations and Eric and Wendy Schmidt through the Schmidt Family Foundation. Working together to create a just world where all people have access to renewable energy, clean air and water, and healthy food. The Schmidt Family Foundation is part of the philanthropic organizations and initiatives created and funded by Eric and Wendy Schmidt to work toward a healthy,

resilient, secure world for all. On the web at theschmidt.org. Support for NPR and the following message come from Carnegie Corporation of New York, working to reduce political polarization through philanthropic support for education, democracy and peace. More information at carnegie.org. It's Consider This from NPR. So how did the Sunshine State end up in the center of the political universe? NPR political correspondent Kelsey Snell and national correspondent Greg Allen explain. Florida's place in politics isn't just a fluke. Analysts explain that's because it's one of the most consistently changing and closely divided states in the country. Florida is the future because Florida is a microcosm of what America will be because Florida is incredibly diverse. That's Joe Geller. He is a former state representative and a former chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party. He was also an attorney for Al Gore during the 2000 recount.

Geller says the state is actually broken down into sections with completely different political identities. The northern section votes a lot like the rest of the South. Parts of central Florida vote more like the Midwest. And areas around Miami, they are another story entirely. And Florida isn't just politically diverse. Somewhere around 2040, non-Hispanic whites will make up a minority of the population of the country. Florida is probably there or almost there already. That's Gregory Koger. He's the director of the Hanley Democracy Center at the University of Miami. He says only about a third of the population is born and raised in Florida.

The rest of the state keeps changing. And there's rapid transition. So a lot of people come here to retire and then pass away and then someone else moves in. And so the voters who elected a candidate in one year might not be around the next time. People flow in and out of Florida for other reasons, too. Immigration, jobs, family. For more than a century, Florida was a Democratic stronghold. And it looked like it would stay that way. Migration, both of retirees from the Northeast and of Cuban Americans fleeing communism, made for a diverse population that supported Democrats. But in 1983, a visit by a Republican president had a big impact. Cuba si Castro no. Ronald Reagan's address at the Dade County Auditorium helped galvanize Republican support among Cuban Americans, a fast-growing and influential population in South Florida.

Democrats have made inroads over the decades, but Cuban American support helped Donald Trump carry Miami-Dade County in 2020 and win Florida while losing nationally. Two years later, Governor Ron DeSantis resoundingly won his re-election bid by the largest margin of any Republican since Reconstruction. It's part of a political shift in Florida that's reflected in voter registration figures. Five years ago, there were a quarter million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state. The head of Florida's Republican Party, Christian Ziegler, says that's no longer the case. We now have almost 500,000 more Republicans than Democrats. So it's really been a 750,000 voter registration swing towards the Republicans. The shift to the Republican Party

has been reflected in recent elections. The governor's mansion, both chambers of the legislature, both U.S. Senate seats, and every position elected statewide in Florida are now controlled by Republicans. It's a trend that once again has been fueled by migration, this time not from Cuba, but from the U.S. And hello, Florida. Hello, Florida. It's great to be with you and back at the villages. I like the villages. The village is just one of a host of developments in central and southwest Florida that have attracted retirees, many from Ohio, Michigan, and other states in the upper Midwest. Matthew Isbell is a data consultant who analyzes voting trends for Democrats.

Back in the old days of Florida, those communities used to be very democratic because they were more Jewish retirees from certain parts of the country. And now we have retirees that are more just conservative Protestants or Catholics. Democrats also lost ground because of COVID. And they don't dispute that. Joe Geller, who was a state representative at the time, said Democrats chose to take precautions seriously in 2020 and well into 2022. We protected our people. We said, no, don't go out there. Don't knock on doors because it's not safe. Democrats and Republicans agreed that those choices gave Republicans an edge.

Did it hurt us electorally? Did it hurt our voter registration numbers? Absolutely. Geller is unapologetic about that choice, but doing so did give DeSantis an opening to capture the narrative in Florida, and it emboldened Republicans who wanted to make the state a haven for rejecting COVID restrictions and embracing increasingly hardline conservative policies. With their dominance in Florida, Republicans now have a big advantage over Democrats in political fundraising. They've used their majorities to draw legislative and congressional districts favorable to Republicans, and the majorities have gotten bigger. State Party Chair Christian Ziegler says the state has become a model for Republicans nationwide. I mean, if Florida can

go from a president winning by a couple hundred votes to 20 years later just crushing the Democrat Party and becoming a hard right state, if we can do that in Florida, why can't other states do it? For Democrats nationally, the only good thing about what's happened in Florida is that they don't need the state to win the presidency. Democratic strategist Steve Shale says that's not the case for Republicans. The last Republican to win the White House without winning Florida was Calvin Coolidge in 1924. Their electoral math requires going through Florida. Shale says the challenge he and other Democrats will have in 2024 is convincing big donors and the National Party not to give up on Florida. If you don't invest here, you're essentially giving whoever the Republican nominee is, you know, $200 million to go spend wherever else they want. And to me, that doesn't feel like a very smart chess move.

After his big re-election win, Governor DeSantis doubled down on policies that appeal to social conservatives. He signed laws limiting how race, sexual orientation, and gender identity can be discussed in the schools. He's allowed book bans as part of his push for parental rights. He's targeted transgender health care and attacked Disney as a woke corporation. It's all now part of his national presidential campaign, one that's been dubbed Make America Florida. But Gregory Coker from University of Miami says making America into Florida isn't quite as easy as DeSantis says. For the most part, if he wanted something passed, he just had to tell them, hey, I want this passed, and it would happen. Those Republican supermajorities DeSantis has, they don't exist in Congress right now. Plus, many analysts say that the partisan advantage at the state level may not apply when it comes to this next presidential election.

Jackie Lee is a consultant for Democrats. She ran President Biden's Florida operation in 2020. The pendulum is going to swing because of the demographics, because of our large independent population here as well. If making America Florida won't work, Democrats are hoping that they can tie the Republican Party's identity entirely to Florida. That could be a huge problem for independent voters like Adam Ferguson in Miami. I'm not a culture warrior voter. It just doesn't appeal to me at all. It turns me off. That's why Democrats think they have a chance to really energize voters against those policies DeSantis has passed, regardless

of whether he's the Republican nominee. That was NPR's Kelsey Snell and Greg Allen. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Juana Summers. Support for NPR and the following message come from the Kauffman Foundation, providing access to opportunities that help people achieve financial stability, upward mobility, and economic prosperity, regardless of race, gender, or geography. Kauffman.org.