Consider This from NPR - Hamas and Hezbollah are both without leaders. What now?

Episode Date: October 17, 2024

Today, Israel announced that they had killed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas.Sinwar came to power in the wake of the death of hiss predecessor, as well as the head of Hamas's military wing – leaving him ss the leading figure of the militant group. What will Sinwar's death mean for Hamas and for Israel's war in Gaza ?For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Yaya Senwar, the leader of Hamas and the man believed to be behind the October 7th attacks against Israel, is dead. Israeli officials announced on Thursday that he was killed by its military in Gaza. Senwar was Israel's number one most wanted man in Gaza. He was calling the shots in this war. He approved a hostage release deal back in November. And he was the man who Israel was hoping would agree to a ceasefire deal, Israel and many all around the world. He was the man. That's NPR's Daniel Estrin reporting from Tel Aviv on Thursday. Since the beginning of the war, Senwar had eluded capture, possibly in

the labyrinth of tunnels Hamas built under Gaza. He was seen as a hardliner within Hamas and considered less likely to reach a ceasefire deal with Israel. The fury at Israel is very clear. David Remnick profiled the Hamas leader and the New Yorker earlier this year, and he spoke to NPR about Senwar's ideology. Laid out in a semi-autobiographical novel, Senwar wrote while in an Israeli prison. There's certainly nothing having to do with a two-state solution. It is fueled by the absolute conviction

that there can be no Israeli state and there can be no compromise. Israel killed Senwar's predecessor as well as the head of Hamas's military wing, leaving Senwar as the leading figure of the militant group. Consider this. What will Senwar's death mean for Hamas and for Israel's war in Gaza? From NPR, I'm Juana Summers. Ever look up at the stars and wonder, what's out there?

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death of Hamas leader Yahya Senwar a good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world. Senwar was an architect of the October 7th attack on Israel, and his death is being seen as a possible chance to end the war he started just over a year ago. NPR's Daniel Estrin is in Tel Aviv and joins us now. Daniel, what can you tell us about how the Samas leader was killed? It apparently happened completely by chance. Soldiers saw suspicious movement in a building. They shot tank fire at a building and killed three men. They had also sent a drone to see who was inside. They spotted a man whose face was covered in a scarf who threw apparently a stick toward that drone.

They shelled the house and later, only after the fact, found out that they had killed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas. lab in Tel Aviv, and Israeli police said he was identified by his dental records, his fingerprints, and his DNA, which Israel had because Zinwar had spent many years in Israeli prison. Daniel, tell us if you can a bit about the mood now in Israel and in Gaza, given what's happened here. Well, there's a lot of celebration among many Israelis. Some Israelis danced in some places. I went, though, to a rally of a few hundred Israelis who were not very happy. They were outside Israel's military headquarters. They are calling for Israel to strike a deal for the release of dozens of hostages still believed to be alive in Gaza, a deal with Hamas. I asked Michael Levy, whose brother, Or Levi, is still a hostage in Gaza, what he's feeling about Sinwar's killing.

Honestly, I'm not sure. I mean, I'm obviously happy because he's one of the biggest terrorists ever. But I'm trying to think what's next. My brother is still there. Now, with the symbolic death of Sinoir, it's a big opportunity to seal a deal. So he's hoping this is an opportunity to seal a hostage exchange deal with Hamas. In Gaza, there was a mix of reactions. Some called Sinoir a martyr. One woman, though, told NPR that she was happy Sinoir was dead. She said Sinoir led Gaza to destruction. She said she

would like to distribute sweets in Gaza to celebrate his death, but she could not afford to buy sweets thanks to Senouar and this war. Another man didn't give his name. He didn't want to get in trouble with Hamas, but he told us that he hoped this would mean that he could finally rebuild his life. He said his message to Israel was Senouwar is now dead, so end the war. Well, what about that, Daniel? Is an end to the war likely?

You know, it will take Hamas some time to choose a successor. The group does have some more moderate leaders than Sinwar was. Sinwar is considered a hardliner. And the next leader of Hamas might be interested in reaching a deal to end the war. There's also a question of Netanyahu's willingness to end the war. Today, in a speech, he said the war is far from over. He has his own political considerations. His far-right government still wants to continue the war in Gaza.

But Sinoir's killing could be this symbolic win that Netanyahu needs to lead to the end of the war. President Biden spoke with Netanyahu today, and Biden says he wants this moment to lead to the release of hostages and finally to the end of the war. President Biden spoke with Netanyahu today, and Biden says he wants this moment to lead to the release of hostages and finally to the end of the war. That's NPR's Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv. Daniel, thanks as always. Thank you, Anna. To explain the larger implications of Senwar's death for Hamas, the region, and the war with Israel, I spoke to Daniel Byman. He's a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a foreign policy think tank. Daniel, if you can, just start off by telling us,

do you believe that Senwar's death could be a turning point in this war? For Israelis, it's a win. They've been promoting the idea that he's a dead man walking since the war's inception, and Israeli leaders consider their own people that we now have killed the key architect of October 7th. For Hamas, he was a hardliner, and if he's replaced by someone who is more pragmatic or moderate, that could also lead Hamas to be more likely to compromise. But in the past, the killings of major leaders have not led to progress on the ceasefire, and both sides right now seem pretty dug in. In just three months, two of the top leaders of Hamas have been killed. From your perspective, what do these deaths mean for the viability of Hamas and its ability to function

moving forward? Hamas has been hit very hard. It's not only lost numerous senior leaders, but the constant Israeli campaign has made it much harder for those remaining leaders to communicate with each other. If they use their phone, email, or have meetings, they're at risk that Israeli intelligence will find out where they are and kill them. Israel has also devastated much of Hamas's rank and file.

All that said, the influence of Hamas's rank and file. All that said, the influence of Hamas is relative to other actors, and no other Palestinian actor has risen in Gaza that can challenge Hamas. And Hamas has enough power remaining, enough people remaining, where it's going to remain strong in Gaza despite Israeli efforts. Now, I'll just remind folks that Israel also killed Hezbollah's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, just a few weeks ago. What these groups have in common is that they're supported by Iran, which has long used these groups as a proxy in the region. How do these assassinations taken together change Iran's influence?

So that's a blow to Iran's influence. It's a blow to Iran's capabilities. At the same time, the Israeli campaign and the incredible unpopularity of the Israeli campaign around the world is a victory for Iran. Iran has long said Israel is illegitimate, that Israel is the cause of the region's problems, and many people in the world are more likely to share that now after a year of war. Is there anyone that you can see who's poised to take the lead within Hamas with credibility on both ceasefire and on hostage deals? Right now, it's unclear who's going to be the next leader of Hamas. Israel has taken out much of the leadership, which makes it hard to determine what the natural succession is. So it's going to be a real challenge for Hamas to be able to

have a leader who has credibility within the movement and from there have the credibility to be able to make major concessions and otherwise try to move beyond the current conflict. Well, Netanyahu sees this as an opportunity to seek a deal for a ceasefire and release the hostages or a sign that he can achieve his goal of a total military victory in Gaza as his hardline coalition partners are pushing him to do. Making a big leap such as a ceasefire that would risk his political coalition, that leaves an uncertain question about domestic investigations into the October 7th attack within Israel, that would be a big jump. And so far, at least, he's been

very reluctant to make that. That was Daniel Byman, professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Daniel, thank you. Thank you for having me. This episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Erica Ryan. It was edited by Jeanette Woods, Tenbeat Arameus, and James Heider. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And one more thing before we go. Jeremias, and James Heider. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And one more thing before we go.

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