Consider This from NPR - Here's What We Know About The 12 Million Midterm Ballots Cast So Far

Episode Date: October 26, 2022

As of Wednesday afternoon, more than 12 million people have cast ballots in the 2022 midterms, according to the United States Elections Project.Hidden in that number are hints about the effect disinformation might be having on voting by mail, whether new voting restrictions are depressing turnout and how motivated Americans are to cast ballots this year.NPR's Miles Parks breaks down the national early voting picture, and Sam Gringlas with WABE in Atlanta, talks about the role early voting has played in that crucial midterm state.In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for NPR comes from NPR member stations and Eric and Wendy Schmidt through the Schmidt Family Foundation, working toward a healthy, resilient, secure world for all. On the web at theschmidt.org. Carly Koppis' job has gotten a lot more complicated since Donald Trump and his allies started spreading lies about election fraud. She runs elections in Weld County, Colorado. She's county clerk, a Republican, and she says groups that believe the entire election system is corrupt are encouraging their members to get directly involved in the voting process, as poll watchers in the state's June primary, for example. I approved 35 watchers during that primary election, and every single one of them had ties to either USCIP, which is a known election denier group,

or other similar organizations. This really does put us in a very tough spot. She's talking about the U.S. Election Integrity Plan. It's a nonprofit group that claims its goal is to root out voter fraud. But some election deniers have also pushed conspiracy theories that are not supported by facts, such as the false claim that vote counting machines are connected to the internet and rigged votes for Biden in 2020. So for Kappas, that means that in addition to all her regular work running an election, she's having to spend time debunking such conspiracy theories. I literally had one watcher get on their knees and follow my wires just so that I could prove to them that it is a closed network, that it is air gap, that it's not connected to the internet.

Kappas' approach to election misinformation has been quite literally transparency. For the general election, she's set up the office so that anyone can see the bright green wires running all the way from the machines that scan paper ballots to the machine that tabulates the results. They can see that it's going actually into the wall. And then on the other side, that this is our secure server room. And they can actually see from the window in there it going straight into the server. Other election offices in Colorado are taking similar steps. More cameras, more security, public tours, live-streamed ballot processing. In Weld County, Kappas is adding video screens with PowerPoint presentations,

explaining how the election process works. Just trying to have that information constantly rolling. So hopefully, you know, they can stand here and they can watch that and then have a little more educated questions. Providing this level of transparency amid intense partisan skepticism, that's new this election cycle. There are also big changes to how elections are run, with some states adding restrictions driven by unsupported fraud claims and other states expanding access in certain ways. That means how people vote has changed a lot in these last several years. Consider this. 12 million people have already cast their ballots in the midterm

elections. We'll break down what those numbers can tell cast their ballots in the midterm elections. We'll break down what those numbers can tell us about trust in the system, obstacles to voting, and how motivated Americans are to make their voices heard. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It's Wednesday, October 26th. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. It's Wednesday, October 26th. Support for NPR and the following message come from Carnegie Corporation of New York, working to reduce political polarization through philanthropic support for education, democracy, and peace. More information at carnegie.org. It's Consider This from NPR. Elections now are more of a season than a day. Depending what state

you live in, you could have cast your ballot more than a month ago. As we said, more than 12 million and counting as of Wednesday afternoon. That's according to the United States Elections Project. To unpack that number, my colleague Juana Summers spoke with NPR's Miles Parks, who covers voting for NPR, and also with Sam Greenglass of WABE in Atlanta. Georgia is a key state once again this year, and one where early voting is playing a big role. Miles, I want to start with you. How does 12 million compare to what we've seen in previous elections? Yeah, I mean, it's the most by far that we've ever seen at this point in a midterm cycle. And it really gives credence to this idea that election officials have been saying for a few cycles now that like election day is kind of over. It's really more of an election season or an election month. I talked

about that recently with political scientist Michael McDonald at the University of Florida. He runs the U.S. Elections Project, which tracks these turnout numbers. And what he said is that there's a number of factors driving this early vote increase. In some places, we're seeing simply more early voters because there wasn't really an opportunity to vote early in many places back in 2018. So that's one part of it. The other part is that, well, it's the proverbial, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.

People want to vote as well. In other words, there's more access to voting right now, and there's a lot of voter enthusiasm. Sam, I want to turn to you next. You are in Georgia. How is early voting going there so far? Well, we are a week and a half in, and more than a million people have already cast their ballots in Georgia. And that is blowing past previous records for midterm early turnout that were set back in 2018. This is Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger celebrating those million votes. I would put our Georgia election system and our voter experience up against any other state in the union. Now, analysts are trying to kind of read the tea

leaves from these numbers. But the reality is that it's really hard to draw conclusions right now. 1.6 million new voters have registered in Georgia since 2018, plus the pandemic and also new election laws have changed how and when people are voting. OK, and Sam, you're teeing up there a point I wanted to get to next. Miles, you have been looking at the overall trends in voting methods across the country. What can you tell us? Right. So most states expanded voting access in response to the pandemic in 2020. But that really just took a trend towards early voting that was already happening in the U.S. and supercharged it.

In 2000, for instance, close to 90 percent of voters voted in person on Election Day. Just 20 years later, only about 30 percent of American voters voted in person on election day. Just 20 years later, only about 30% of American voters voted in person on election day. I talked about this shift with Charles Stewart, who's an election expert at MIT. And he said there's been a lot of noise over the last few years. There's been voting law changes all across the country, misinformation about voting by mail, but the overall trend towards early voting hasn't been dampened. I think that the immovable force in elections over the last 20 years hasn't changed, and that is voters really demanding more convenience. You know, there's been so much attention,

and rightfully so, on all of these laws that have been passed over the last couple of years that restrict voting access in some states. But it is important not to lose the forest for the trees here. There is just so much more access nationally to early voting than there was even just four years ago. And Miles, you mentioned misinformation about vote by mail. And this was a key point for former President Donald Trump in 2020. And it led to Republicans really abandoning that method of voting in the last election. This year, are we still seeing that trend play out? Yes, it's clear that Democrats feel a lot more comfortable voting by mail still than Republicans

do. In Pennsylvania, for instance, which does offer vote by mail, but does not offer in-person early voting, registered Democrats have an early vote lead there of about 500,000 to 132,000. But like Sam said, it's really hard to read too much into those numbers because Republicans say they're going to vote in person on election day. A recent NBC News poll, for instance, found that 60% of Republicans nationally said that's how they plan to vote compared to 36% of Democrats who plan to vote in person on election day. And Sam, Georgia was one of those states that passed a new voting law. How has it changed voting so far in this general election?

Well, the law did expand early voting in some places, but it also tightened the timeline for casting an absentee ballot and curved ballot drop boxes, especially here in metro Atlanta. The law's GOP supporters, they argue that high turnout disproves any claims that voting is harder now under the new law. But Democrats like Stacey Abrams, who's running against Republican Governor Brian Kemp, say voters are simply finding ways to overcome obstacles. The vernacular way of putting it is more people in the water does not mean there are fewer sharks. And you know, elections in Georgia have been decided by really slim margins lately. So a few voters here and there who don't make it to the ballot box, it can matter. And Sam,

I know you have been talking to a lot of voters who are out there voting early. What are they telling you? Well, today I stopped by my polling place at a neighborhood library in Atlanta, and I met Bobby Wagner, who voted absentee during the pandemic using a Dropbox, but now is voting early in person. Once things got a little bit better, the early voting was good. We used to always vote on the day, but more crowded then. But early vote is very crowded this time. I also talked to two friends, Joanne Hawkins and Pamela Kitt.

Hawkins had these three peach-shaped I Voted stickers on her blouse. I need people to see I vote, and it's important to me. I'm more excited about this moment. I mean, it takes me back to Obama. I'm happy to see a lot of people who may have not voted in the past are voting this term. So we're ready. Some voters have told me they do feel a little nervous, but not really because of the voting, but about whether their candidates can pull off wins this year. Miles Parks and Sam Greenglass, thank you both. Thanks for having us.

Thanks. That is Sam Greenglass with WABE in Atlanta and NPR's Miles Parks. They were speaking with my colleague Juana Summers. And the reporting you heard at the top of the show about election prep in Weld County, Colorado, that came from Colorado Public Radio's Binta Birkland. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Support for NPR and the'm Mary Louise Kelly.