Consider This from NPR - How much can the upcoming vice presidential debate impact the election?

Episode Date: September 30, 2024

In a race where so much of the polling is within the margin of error — it seems as though any one thing could affect the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.But have vice presidential debates made a difference in past races?NPR's senior White House Correspondent Tamara Keith dug into that existential, and political question.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

On Tuesday, two Midwesterners will face off in the only vice presidential debate of the election. Governor Walz and I are going to debate the issues that matter to the American people. I think it's a good opportunity to contrast where we're at. Ohio Senator J.D. Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will share the stage exactly five weeks from Election Day in a race that is very close. Both candidates will likely lean on their small-town, middle-of-America credentials. I grew up in Middletown, Ohio. Now I grew up in Butte, Nebraska. But they have very different ideas about what America should look like. We also protected reproductive freedom because in Minnesota, we respect our neighbors and the personal choices they make. Now the Supreme Court's decision, it was not only a victory for the Constitution,

it was a victory, it was a testament to the resolve of tens of millions of pro-life Americans. I believe in the Second Amendment, but I also believe our first responsibility is to keep our kids safe. The states without strict gun laws, some of them have school shootings too, so clearly strict gun laws is not the thing that is going to solve this problem. Consider this, when J.D. Vance and Tim Walz take the debate stage, will their performances make a difference in the outcome of the election? From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro. And you your block from CPR News, this is Colorado Matters. And

you can find all of that and more in your pocket. Download the NPR app today. It's Consider This from NPR. Tuesday night, J.D. Vance and Tim Walls will meet in a television studio in New York. For 90 minutes, the two vice presidential nominees will debate. In a race where so much of the polling is within the margin of error,

it seems like any one thing could affect the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. But have vice presidential debates made a difference in past races? NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith dug into that existential and political question. Vice presidential debates are often forgettable, but the one in 1988 is seared in American popular culture. Judy Woodruff of PBS did the introductions. The candidates are Senator Dan Quayle, the Republican nominee, and Senator Lloyd Benson, the Democratic nominee. Benson was in his late 60s, while Quayle was only 41.

And that dynamic led to quite possibly the best line in debate history. Brett O'Donnell helps Republican candidates prepare for debates. Dan Quayle compares himself to John F. Kennedy and Lloyd Benson says, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy. That was a huge moment in the debate. A huge moment that had no real impact on the outcome of the race. Gloria's smackdown notwithstanding, Benson and his running mate Michael Dukakis lost in a wipeout.

The next VP debate featured a third-party candidate. Who am I? Why am I here? He was James Stockdale, the running mate of Ross Perot. And that three-way conversation featured a whole lot of crosstalk between Quayle and future Vice President Al Gore. Now let me talk about health care. Did you require it? Did you require it? My turn. Did you require it? My turn. It's a free discussion. Take a breath out. Inhale. It's a free discussion. In 2008, the most memorable thing happened right as Alaska Governor Sarah Palin and then-Senator Joe Biden walked on stage. Nice to meet you. Hey, can I call you Joe? O'Donnell says it was humanizing.

What most people have now learned is she was having a hard time remembering just to say Biden was saying, oh, Biden in debate prep. So calling him Joe was actually a way to avoid a potential debate pitfall. In 2020, it was then Senator Kamala Harris's attempt to reclaim her time from Vice President Mike Pence that created a standout debate moment. In 1864. I'd like you to answer the question. Mr. Vice President, I'm speaking. I'm speaking. Okay. But actually, it may have been the fly that parked itself on Pence's white hair that earned the most attention in that debate, which begs the question, do vice presidential debates really matter?

Joel Goldstein is an expert on the vice presidency. He argues, yes, they do. It's an important part of their introduction to the American people, along with the sort of the vice presidential rollout and the acceptance speech. And these two could use more of an introduction. J.D. Vance is a bestselling author, but has only been in the Senate for two years. Governor Tim Walz served in Congress, but never had a national profile until now. Goldstein says one key test is whether voters can imagine them as president. If somebody's not prepared to be president on day one, they're also not likely to be the sort of person who's going to be able to walk into the Oval

Office and say no to the president or tell him or her that the president's wrong. This is especially important if the person running for president is older. As O'Donnell put it, We just want to know if something were to happen to the president, could these people step up? That's really what we want to know. Both Goldstein and O'Donnell say vice presidential debates can be an important part of the narrative of the campaign. But O'Donnell says there are limits. I can't recall a moment in history where a VP debate has swung the race, and I don't expect that will happen this time. Well, whether or not

Tuesday night's debate swings the race, it is a moment of political theater that many Americans will be focused on. And Tam joins us now with some more analysis of this moment and what these two men could mean to the outcome of the race. Hi, Tam. Hi. So take us into this debate. It's going to be 90 minutes long. What are the ground rules? There are quite a few ground rules. There will be no audience. The candidates will stand behind lecterns. They will have no props or pre-written notes, though they will get some water, a pad of paper, and a pen to use during the debate. Their mics will not be automatically muted. As you might remember from the first two presidential debates, their mics were muted when they weren't talking. This time, the mics are open, but CBS, who is running this debate, quote, reserves the right to turn off candidates'

microphones. So mics could get muted if things get too spicy. Each candidate will get two minutes to answer the questions. They will get a one-minute rebuttal. And if things are still going on, the moderators could decide to add an additional minute for each one. Let's get to substance. If the first rule of politics is do no harm, what are the specific challenges that each candidate faces in this debate? Well, I think that for J.D. Vance, a real challenge came to light, in fact, during the presidential debate where former President Trump was asked about something that J.D. Vance had said about him. And Trump said, essentially, he doesn't speak for me. I didn't talk to him. He can't say what I would do. Yeah. And I think that is the challenge

that Vance has. It's also the challenge that any spokesperson for Donald Trump has ever had, which is Trump does not let other people speak for him. But the job of the vice president and of the vice presidential candidate in a debate is to speak up for, defend, promote the views and policy proposals of the person who is actually running to be president. And frankly, Trump's policy proposals, although he says he's going to do mass deportation, he has a lot of tax plans, lots and lots of tariffs. He doesn't have a lot of specifics about how he would do any of these things. It's quite likely Vance would be asked to explain how it would work. Not sure we'll get answers on how it would work. And it's a similar situation for Walls. Vice President Harris has only been running for president since late July. She has not had the time to fully solidify her policy positions. There aren't a lot of policy papers and plans in place because she just hasn't been

running for president for very long. And Walz hasn't been her running mate for very long. So he comes into this in a position of having to explain policies that he and the candidate herself are still trying to define. Are you expecting specific attack lines from each of them? Well, certainly we can expect J.D. Vance to go after Walz and Harris on immigration and the economy to say that Tim Walz, who's this governor of Minnesota, his policies were just too liberal for America. Walz, we can expect to go after Vance and Trump. Trump in the last debate said

he had a concept of a plan to replace the Affordable Care Act. That has been something that Harris and Walz have been hitting on. What is this concept of a plan? You can expect them to talk about immigration and the bipartisan border security proposal that Trump tanked. Vance, as a senator, could have voted for it, but Republicans in the Senate tanked it after Trump said they should. Also, you can expect Walls to talk about abortion rights and IVF access. That's another measure that came before the Senate, but Republicans voted it down, a measure that would have made IVF access guaranteed. Well, what's the wild card that you're going to be looking out for? What are you especially

keyed into? Well, I think the main thing that I will be watching for after talking to some experts on debates is how much these candidates go after each other and how much they focus on the people who are actually running for president. The reality is nobody actually cares about their attack lines on each other, despite the fact that they have been attacking each other a lot on the campaign trail in their stump speeches. People are not voting for the vice president. They are voting for the president. These guys are the running mate. They're supposed to blend into the wallpaper. And if they make it about themselves too much, that might actually hurt

them. So that's one thing I'm watching for is, are they able to make it about their running mates rather than about each other? That's NPR senior White House correspondent Tamara Keith. Thanks and enjoy the debate. You're welcome. This episode was produced by Catherine Fink, Michael Levitt, and Alejandra Marquez-Hanse. It was edited by Courtney Dourning and Roberta Rampton. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And one more thing before we go, you can now enjoy the Consider This newsletter. We still help you break down a major story of the day, but you'll also get to know our producers and hosts and some moments of joy from the All Things Considered team. You can sign up at npr.org slash consider this newsletter. It's Consider This from NPR.

I'm Ari Shapiro.