Consider This from NPR - How Trump's foreign policy is reshaping the world order

Episode Date: March 4, 2025

After the Trump-Zelenskyy blow-up on Friday, European leaders held emergency talks in London to put together a roadmap to peace. Then, on Tuesday, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced a proposal called ReArm Europe. The roughly $840 billion plan would quickly build up defense budgets in Europe. Meanwhile, the U.S. seems to continue to align itself with Russia. President Trump is upending the U.S.-led order that has dominated global politics for the better part of a century. What does that mean for Ukraine – and for America? For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Vladimir Putin's tenure as president of Russia is now measured in decades, not just years. That means he can play the long game. He waits. He is very carefully waiting for things to break down. That's Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs at the New School, also the great granddaughter of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev. And sure enough, Putin got exactly the sort of breakdown he was waiting for on Friday. At that Oval Office meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. If you didn't have our military equipment, this war would have been over in two weeks. In three days. I heard it from Putin. In three days. This is something new. Maybe less. In two weeks. In three days. I heard it from Putin. In three days. This is something new. Maybe less. In two weeks, of course, yes.

It's gonna be a very hard thing to do business like this. Kremlin didn't even have to do anything this time around. And the West is being suddenly ripped apart. And Zelensky, the Kremlin obviously doesn't like and thinks an enemy is being berated by the United States, by Donald Trump, who the Kremlin does like. Zalensky was at the White House to sign over mineral rights to the U.S., a deal that Ukraine hoped would help it get security guarantees in a future peace deal with Russia. That blow-up

put the signing on hold. And on Monday, the White House said it was pausing U.S. military aid to Ukraine. Speaking on background, a White House official said, the president has been clear that he is focused on peace. We need our partners to be committed to that goal as well. All this looks like a major step back from a U.S. ally. And it's not the only one. At another White House meeting last week, Trump said this about the EU.

The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That's the purpose of it. And they've done a good job of it, but now I'm president. He's threatening tariffs on EU imports. And Trump has already put 25 percent tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, those snapped into place early Tuesday. Trump argues these moves are about aligning foreign policy with American interests. But tension in relationships between the U.S. and allies also appears to be in Russia's

interests. The Kremlin is ecstatic, says Khrushcheva. It does seem that it's a great dream of any KGB operative to see the West unraveling this way without even having to lift a finger in this particular moment. Consider this. Trump is upending the U.S.-led order that has dominated global politics for the better part of a century. What does that mean for Ukraine and for America? From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro. It's Consider This from NPR. After the Trumzalensky blow-up on Friday, European leaders held emergency talks in London

to put together a roadmap to peace. Here's British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Our starting point must be to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position now, so that they can negotiate from a position of strength. And we are doubling down in our support. And on Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a proposal called Rearm Europe. I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face.

The roughly $840 billion plan would quickly build up defense budgets in Europe. With this equipment, member states can massively step up their support to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the U.S. seems to continue to align itself with Russia. To discuss where things go, and what this means for U.S. alliances, I spoke with Richard Haas hours before the U.S. paused military aid to Ukraine. He's the President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations and has served in diplomatic roles in Republican presidential administrations. You know, President Trump's been saying for almost a decade since his first run for office

that the rest of the world should take more responsibility for global security. Whatever you may think of his tactics, is he succeeding at least at getting American allies to do more? He might be, but at enormous cost. It's one thing to say the rest of the world needs to do more and let's plan, say, a 10-year transition, which is orderly where we dial up the rest of the world needs to do more and let's plan say a 10-year transition Which is orderly where we dial up the rest of the world and say dial down the United States So our foes are not encouraged and so our allies are not unnerved

But this this is not that this is much more of a switch than a dial and the danger is that you have Opportunities where adversaries see the reason to attack you see some of our friends saying either we have to appease a powerful neighbor or maybe we need nuclear weapons of our own. So there's a chance that some good will come of this. I don't deny that the Europeans might actually do more and they should do more with their conventional military forces. But this is highly disruptive and comes at great risk. Do you think the Europeans can figure out how to end this war without US leadership?

Extraordinarily difficult. Europeans can only do so much. They don't have the defense industries. They don't have the large inventories to transfer, but Ukraine can hold on. The problem is without the United States supporting Ukraine, it's quite probable that Vladimir Putin will not have the incentive to compromise, to accept a ceasefire, except on terms that are quite draconian. Oh, so you're saying Russia could make real advances

in Ukraine if the US pulls back, and that would disincentivize any kind of peace talks. Right, and that's what's missing. I don't understand about the president's approach. He says he wants to be a peacemaker here. Well, the best way to get a peace is to persuade Vladimir Putin that the United States and the West will stand by Ukraine, so continued war by Russia will not lead Mr. Putin to anything that resembles success.

We've done just the opposite. So Vladimir Putin's sitting in the Kremlin going, why should I compromise? What about the argument that Trump is effectively saying the quiet part out loud, that Ukraine cannot win this war even with US support, so it's time to just bring the conflict to an end? If by win this war you mean recover all of its territory going back to 1991, you're right. And that was actually a good strategic insight of this administration that militarily recovering all Ukraine had lost in 2014 and 2022 was not realistic. And the Biden administration refused to do that.

But the other way to define success is you have a ceasefire. Ukraine keeps what it has now, which is 80% of its territory. The war stops. And then you have the ability over years or decades to negotiate. And maybe you come up with a new relationship between Ukraine and, say, a post-Vladimir Putin Russia. So again, I think there's all sorts of possibilities, but success should not be defined either as Ukraine recovering all of its territory militarily.

That's a non-starter or giving Vladimir Putin everything he wants. I'd like to get your take on what the big picture set of US alliances right now looks like, because since the end of World War II, the globe has been more or less defined by a certain set of expectations, and those alliances seem very shaky right now. Trump last week said at his cabinet meeting

that the European Union, quote, was formed in order to screw the United States. To put it bluntly, is the post-war order done? the European Union quote, was formed in order to screw the United States. To put it bluntly, is the post-war order done? To put it bluntly, the post-war order is on life support. It's a tragedy. I've never seen this before in history. I'm used to empires or orders crumbling.

I'm used to them being overwhelmed. I've never seen the side, the country that created it and maintained it, dismantling it. And that is exactly what we are doing. And what's so tragic about it is the great strategic advantage of American foreign policy is we wake up every morning and we have this pool of partners, dozens in Europe and in Asia that are willing to work with us militarily to deter conflict, to fight them if need be, willing to trade with us,

invest with us and so forth. And we are undermining that and for nothing that's necessarily good or even in any way comparable in return. Well, what's the alternative? What comes after that? Could be a world of much more disorder, where adversaries see opportunities, could be a world of spheres of influence, where China says, oh, we're going to do with Taiwan and others what we want, where Russia controls big parts of Europe, where the United States, consistent with some of what the president has said, seems to play a more aggressive role in the Western hemisphere. So that's possible too.

The problem is, any one of those worlds has far more conflict to it, far less prosperity, and far less freedom. So I just don't understand why we would trade in an approach to the world that has worked for 80 years for something that's far more risky and potentially far more costly. So we began this conversation with discussion about foes, allies, adversaries, all terms that you used, do those terms even apply anymore? It's not a question I ever expected to get, but here we are. No, I think one of the things that's happened is that allies have lost under this administration their special place. The fact that they

are dependent on us for security, the fact that they trade with us, has actually become sources of leverage on the part of the United States. So being an ally, in many ways, has become something of a liability. That's why, again, you'll see certain allies trying to become more self-sufficient. Some may actually think they need nuclear weapons to become really safe. Others may say, wow, we have to appease a China or Russia because we can't count on the United States anymore. But no, I think you're right.

The basic point is that allies of the United States no longer feel they are in an advanced edge position and they are going to be casting a bout for alternatives. You watched the Trump campaign closely. You follow foreign affairs closely. Are you surprised by this one month into the new administration? In a word, I'm very surprised by what I'm seeing. I followed closely President Trump's first term,

which while something of a departure was still on the playing field. Trump 2.0 is qualitatively different. It's far more radical. I would never use the word conservative. It's the opposite of conservative because rather than conserving, it is disrupting. And we see all these alliance relationships being disrupted. We see in sometimes now an unconditional reaching out to adversaries like Russia. And what we

don't see is what the president proposes to put in place of the existing order. It seems to be a world, if you will, without structure, without permanent relationships. And it's not something that was talked about during the campaign. And I think when people went to the polls, this is not what they voted for. It's not what they bargained for, but it is what they're getting. Richard Haas is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, and he's author of the weekly substack newsletter, Home and Away. Thank you so much. Thank you.

This episode was produced by Matthew Cloutier, Noah Caldwell, and Connor Donovan with audio engineering by Tiffany Veracastro. It was edited by Courtney Dornig, Sarah Handel, and Nadia Lantzi. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro. is Sammy Yen again. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.