Consider This from NPR - How Ukrainian Soldiers Are Preparing For The Battle Over Kherson

Episode Date: November 1, 2022

More than eight months after the start of Russia's war in Ukraine, new challenges are emerging.NPR's Franco Ordoñez reports that Ukrainian soldiers are preparing for what could be their toughest battle yet: the fight for the southern city of Kherson. Meanwhile, supply chain issues are complicating the flow of Western military aid to Ukraine. We hear about that from NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and NPR global economics correspondent Stacey Vanek Smith. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

You can get a sense for how the war in Ukraine has changed over the past eight months by listening to the stories of two soldiers nicknamed Concrete and Raptor. NPR is not using their real names to protect their identities. Both had served in the Ukrainian Army Reserve for years. Raptor is a 33-year-old software engineer who learned how to speak English from playing video games. And 40-year-old Concrete is the head of a construction company. He describes the first days of the war. It was totally chaos. It's lucky for us that the Russians are more chaotic than us. Raptor says Russian tactics included deploying riot police as part of their advance on the capital Kiev. We see how they advance. We see how they fight, and we're like, OK, is this like their best or they're just like mocking us?

But then we realized that they're just dumb. There's a lot of them, but they're dumb. The Russians retreated from the Kiev suburbs after a month, and the fighting changed as the front lines shifted south. The first month, Ukrainian soldiers used hit-and-run tactics with shoulder-held missiles. That's given way to a grinding, high-tech trench war in the south with drones and artillery. Now, Concrete and Raptor are no longer fighting behind the protection of suburban buildings.

They are in open farm fields with little cover. The only protection is in the trenches, says Raptor. Sucks. You dig. You dig. That's the only thing you can do. Because here it is the war of artillery. And unless you dig, you're pretty much dead. Raptor says the Russian artillery bombardment wears you down mentally. You're constantly shelled.

And you just don't know if you're going to like survive. It actually is quite heavy on your mind. So you just trust that this isn't your day, just not yet. Consider this as the war shifts again, new challenges are emerging. We hear how Ukrainian soldiers are preparing for what could be their toughest battle yet, the fight for the southern city of Kherson, and how, at the same time, U.S. efforts to arm the Ukrainian military are facing supply chain issues.

From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang. It's Tuesday, November 1st. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally, and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today, or visit WISE.com. T's and C's apply. Dollars. It's Consider This from NPR. In the last several weeks, Ukrainian forces have made big gains, taking back large swaths of land in the east and northwest of the country. But right now, all eyes are on the south, in Kherson. Ukraine has made progress towards this strategically important city, but Russia

is also prepared for the looming battle. As NPR's Franco Ordonez reports, Ukrainian officers don't think victory will be easy. And just a note to listeners, this story does include the sound of gunfire. Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers push their way through a tall field of grass. They confront an enemy less than a mile away, and the battle intensifies. It's a training exercise on a military camp in eastern Ukraine, but a key one for this newly formed brigade. Major Roman Kovalev is leading the new battalion. He tells his soldiers and anyone who will listen that the Russians should not be underestimated.

To be true, the Russians know how to fight. Despite Russia's recent losses, Kovalev insists the Russians won't be underprepared. They learn fast. They're not the same forces as they were in the spring. It is hard to fight them. And he says the Russians are more deliberate in how they use their resources and advantages in artillery. Now they understand they'll face strong resistance, so they're changing their tactics. They're moving more cautiously, trying to take our land piece by piece. There's a lot at stake in Kherson. Kherson is very important for Russia and also for Ukraine.

That's Alexander Musienko, a military expert based in Kyiv. For the Ukrainians, taking back the regional capital would be huge for morale and a strategic win. It would also set the stage to take back parts of the neighboring Zaporizhia region, including a nuclear plant that the Russians control. And it would be devastating for the Russians. Not only did they illegally annex Kherson recently, but Musienko said it would deal a blow to their plans to cut off Ukraine's access of the Black Sea. If we will occupy Kherson, we will destroy the Russian plan to move forward to Krivoy Rik, to Mykolaiv, to Odessa. It would be huge. Really huge. Kherson is symbolic for the South.

And as eager as the Ukrainians are to take it back, Major Hidovy Havrysh says Russians are not going to give up control without a better fight. We made our push. We made progress. They reacted. And now we need to make new opportunities. Some of the newly mobilized Russian conscripts have been sent to help in Kherson. Local officials installed by Moscow are also building territorial defense units and encouraging willing men to join. Karel Stromausov is the Russian-installed deputy

minister of the region. He's trying to paint a picture that they're holding the Ukrainians at bay. Meanwhile, the Moscow-appointed city officials flee into Russia proper. As for Major Kovalev, he says he's not concerned about additional Russian forces. Let them all come. forces. For him, the Battle of Kherson is also personal. After Kherson, the Ukrainians can turn to an even bigger prize, the Crimean Peninsula, which is where Kovalev grew up. He says he hasn't been home in eight years. Sometimes I dream about it. I dream about the sea. I dream about my home city. My soul is there. It's only a matter of time, he says, before his dreams come true.

That was NPR's Franco Ordonez reporting from Dnipro, Ukraine. As Russia's war on Ukraine is approaching its ninth month, we've heard about the conflict's impact on the movement of goods like grain, oil and gas. That's led to energy and food shortages around the world. And now we're going to hear about another kind of impact on the global supply chain. As the U.S. continues to send billions of dollars in powerful weapons and supplies to Ukraine, there are shortages of parts needed to make some of those weapons, including ball bearings. To explain, I talked earlier with NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and NPR Global Economics correspondent Stacey Vanek-Smith. Like me, Tom was wondering,

how could we ever run out of ball bearings, of all things? It's crazy. I couldn't believe it when I first heard it. You'd think it's like running out of safety pins or something. So I went down to my local hardware store, and I have a handful of ball bearings right now. And a Pentagon official I spoke with said, listen, these are not the kind of ball bearings you find at a local hardware store. These are precision ball bearings built to a higher standards. And ball bearings are used in all sorts of military hardware, things like guidance systems, artillery, armored vehicles. The ball bearings help facilitate motion. They reduce friction, and position moving machine parts. Now, the Pentagon says it's meeting all its current

contracts and all are with U.S. companies. So it's not like they're running out, but clearly, you know, it's an issue for them. And military officials tell me now they're talking with industry about how we can create more ball bearings and move faster. Never would have imagined. Stacey, I understand that you have been talking with ball bearing industry types, which I imagine is a first even for you. It is. What are they telling you? Like, are they ramping up production? They are trying to ramp up production. Everyone I spoke with said that they were seeing demand increase, especially over the last few months, and they are trying to meet that production. Everyone I spoke with said that they were seeing demand increase, especially over the last few months.

And they are trying to meet that demand. And so far, it seems like everybody I spoke with was meeting demand. But they're running into some pretty serious roadblocks. For one thing, most Balbarians are made out of steel. And steel has gotten a lot more expensive. Steel prices have actually more than doubled over the last couple of years. Part of that is because Russia was one of the biggest steel exporters in the world. A lot of countries will not buy Russian steel right now, and that has created kind of a global shortage, which has pushed prices up. And even for companies that can pay those higher

prices, steel has just gotten harder to come by as well. I spoke with David Dahl. He's the head of New England Miniature Ball. It makes nearly 3 billion ball bearings every year. Some are just tiny, the size of sesame seeds. Some are bigger, the size of marbles. And he has contracts with these big companies, with aerospace companies and things like that. Obviously, important orders to fill. But actually getting the steel to fill those orders has become a real issue,

even though he can pay the higher prices. Sometimes we have to wait a little while to get the steel that we need. We're a small company, so like if Ford or somebody wanted a bunch of steel, guess who's going to get it first, right? You have to really plan. It can be months before this is when the order will ship. So Dahl said also labor is another big wall he's hitting up against in trying to increase production. He currently has about 100 employees. And he says finding more workers just has been really, really tough. He's raised pay. He said he's willing to train people.

But finding workers that will help his company increase production has gotten really hard. So fascinating. Who knew ball bearings were so important, so fundamental? Okay, so Tom, are there any other weapons parts that the Pentagon is concerned about right now? Well, Elsa, rocket motors, and they're using everything from shoulder-fired Stinger and Javelin missiles up to the larger ones fired by trucks. Now, thousands upon thousands of missiles are being sent to Ukraine, not only from the U.S., but also NATO countries. Now, the rocket motors are only made by two companies, Northrop Grumman and Aerojet. Now, with Aerojet, they've maxed out production, and they have three shifts going at its plant in Arkansas.

And again, the demand is being met, but they want to ramp things up. So the Pentagon is working with these companies as well, trying to figure out how to increase production. It could be renting or buying a new manufacturing plant, buying new equipment. And as Stacey mentioned, you know, it's a labor thing too. So now it could be the company and the Pentagon split the cost. So that's kind of what's going on right now. Okay. So potential shortage in rocket motors, ball bearings, any other shelves that are bare or could be bare? Yes. Computer chips is another big potential sticking point. Obviously, we've heard about this in the context of things like cars. A lot of us bought a lot more electronics at the start of COVID.

And there was a big demand for chips and production of chips was down. So that chip shortage has just caused all kinds of issues across the whole economy. And, you know, it just takes a while for supply chains to normalize, even though apparently that is getting better, the chip shortage. So do we expect all of these potential shortages to be a concern for quite some time? Yes, likely years. The Pentagon's looking pretty far down the road at all these components because officials say they expect to provide Ukraine with weapons for a long, long time. And it's not just Ukraine again. The U.S. will have to replenish its own stocks of weapons. So too will the allies. So everyone's going to need a steady stream of ball bearings, rocket motors and computer chips. I also think this is just such

a fascinating story because it shows how really interconnected economies across the world have become. And there's just not much of a cushion. When supply is disrupted, it can take a while for things to bounce back. That was NPR Global Economics correspondent Stacey Vanek-Smith and NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Earlier in the episode, you heard reporting from NPR's Franco Ordonez and Frank Langford. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang.