Consider This from NPR - Hurricane Milton's triple threat

Episode Date: October 8, 2024

In the span of one day, a Category 1 hurricane headed for western Florida escalated to the highest intensity there is: Category 5.Since then, the predicted wind intensity for Hurricane Milton has ebbed and flowed ahead of the hurricane's expected landfall in Florida on Wednesday.But for now, experts are calling it an "extremely life-threatening situation."NPR spoke to a meteorologist who broke down the triple threat Hurricane Milton poses.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

In the span of one day, a Category 1 hurricane headed for western Florida escalated to the highest intensity there is, a Category 5. Since then, the predicted wind intensity has ebbed and flowed ahead of the hurricane's expected landfall in Florida on Wednesday. But for now, forecasters are calling it a worst case scenario. This has the potential to be a type of storm not only that presents danger right now, not only can have serious damage, but also can have kind of that indelible mark on a community. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a press conference on Tuesday. Over 1 million people have been ordered to evacuate from Florida's West Coast. William Tharp, a 65-year-old resident of Sarasota, told NPR he's planning to leave his home Wednesday morning to seek safety at his office a few miles inland. I mean, I literally do not have any idea whether there'll be a house to come back to. So I'm kind of looking around

and looking at the house like I'm never going to see the contents again. Consider this. A second major hurricane is headed for Florida's west coast. What are residents about to face? From NPR, I'm Juana Summers. Every weekday, NPR's best political reporters come to you on the NPR Politics Podcast to explain the big news coming out of Washington, the campaign trail, and beyond. We don't just want to tell you what happened. We tell you why it matters. Join the NPR Politics Podcast every single afternoon to understand the world through political eyes.

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or driving your car. State of the World podcast from NPR. Vital international stories every day. It's Consider This from NPR. Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall on Wednesday, and it could be the first time in over a century that the Tampa Bay area has been in the direct path of a major hurricane. And joining us now from Tampa is Austin Flannery. He's a meteorologist for

the National Weather Service's Tampa Bay office. Hey, Austin. Hey, good afternoon. Austin, just to start, what can you tell us about Hurricane Milton's path? So Hurricane Milton's path is one that takes it certainly to the west coast of Florida. And there still remains some uncertainty as to the exact landfall point at this time. But ultimately, it doesn't really change the impact. We're looking at a major hurricane moving towards the Florida west coast with a landfall somewhere between the Fort Myers area and Crystal River with the Tampa Bay area specifically kind of being in the middle crosshairs. Can you just give us a historical sense of how typical this path is for your area? Yeah, it's quite unusual to see a storm developing where it is and taking this kind of west-east track across the Gulf of Mexico. We

don't see that happen very often. And the last time we've had a storm that has had the kind of potential that this storm has to bring impacts to the Tampa Bay area was over 100 years ago. We have to look back to October of 1921 to find the last example of a storm that brought the kinds of impacts that we're looking at with Milton in the area. I mean, so many of us have been watching the news of this hurricane, and right now Hurricane Milton is really bouncing around the wind scale. And yesterday, it escalated from a Category 1 all the way to a Category 5, with of course, 5 being the highest on the scale. How has this hurricane become so life-threatening so quickly? Can you just explain those factors? Yeah, there's a lot

of variables that contribute to how a storm becomes what it is. But to kind of simplify it, you basically need a really good energy source and you need an environment that is free of hostile factors that would potentially take away from the storm's ability to intensify. So where Milton is located, it's been over extremely warm waters, and the Gulf of Mexico is one of the warmest basins of water in the entire world right now. So it's over extremely warm waters, and it's been an environment where there really are no other weather systems to provide what we would call wind shear, basically a rapid change in the wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere. Hurricanes don't like wind shear when it comes to becoming a stronger storm, because they need a very calm atmosphere to be able to

rapidly intensify. So Milton has been in an environment that has allowed it to do that. Of course, that does look to change as the storm continues to move towards us. So that will mean that the storm's intensity that it's had is not really something it'll be able to maintain. But ultimately, it doesn't super matter. At the end of the day, we're still looking at very substantial impacts to the west coast of Florida. Now, Hurricane Milton is expected, of course, to make landfall on Wednesday, and there's a lot that could happen after, including storm surge, flash floods, extreme winds. Tell us, what are you anticipating? Right. So there's several different factors. I mean, the most critical life-threatening situation

for our coastal communities is the storm surge. The highest values that we're reporting right now are 10 to 15 feet, with that 15-foot number very likely to occur close to the center of the storm, just south of where that center makes landfall. So that's kind of the peak values we're reporting right now, but really anywhere along and south of that landfall point is going to see substantial storm surge. So that 10 to 15 foot number is what's largely being represented around the Tampa Bay area. But even as you go a little bit further south towards, say, Fort Myers, we're still messaging and forecasting 5 to 10 feet of storm surge in those areas because the storm is so large. So

storm surge of 10 to 15 feet specifically into Tampa Bay. We mentioned this earlier. You have to go back to 1921 to see what that looks like. And that was measured 10 and a half feet at that time in the downtown Tampa area. So with the numbers of potentially a 15-foot number, we're talking several feet higher than that. And of course, that would be catastrophic for anyone who sees that. 15 feet of storm surge is not something that you can just ride out in your home without issue.

You're going to need to seek higher ground. And that's why, of course, evacuation orders have been issued and why it's so imperative that people listen to those if they're in an evacuation zone. So that's the storm surge piece. The next one would be the wind. And unfortunately with Milton, I mentioned the wind shear piece earlier. The problem is as Milton moves further north, it is beginning to interact with a weather system that will induce this wind shear

that while it does, again, ultimately mean the exact wind speed come down a little bit, the wind field expands as well. So the hurricane force wind field is going to be very large with this storm as it approaches the Florida coast. And then as it continues to move across the Florida peninsula at a fairly good pace, that wind field will also continue to translate inland as well. A lot of times we see those hurricane force winds at the coast and not necessarily as far inland. We did see it two weeks ago with Helene and unfortunately Milton looks to do the same for the Florida Peninsula this time. And then finally, there is that rain piece that you

mentioned as well. The flash flooding is a very serious concern. We are anticipating, especially along and north of where the center tracks, 5 to 12 inches of rainfall along the track, with isolated totals as high as 18 inches. And that much rainfall in a short amount of time anywhere is going to cause flooding. And certainly when you combine that with the fact that there are still storm debris and yard debris and such that can clog storm drains, it only kind of compounds the problems that are already in play. So definitely very significant impacts all around from the storm system. This is, of course, the second major hurricane to hit the state of Florida in the last week. How vulnerable is the Tampa Bay area already?

And once Milton makes landfall, how much worse could things really get? So, yeah, our coastline is in an unfortunately very vulnerable position. With Helene, we saw a lot of our natural barrier in the way of the sand dunes being washed away. And they've only just gotten to a place where we've begun to collect that sand. And certainly there has been no opportunity to replenish what has been lost. So from the perspective of the water component, there's a higher risk because the natural barriers just aren't as prevalent as they were before. The other piece that exists is that there is still quite a lot of storm debris that's present in people's yards, in their front lawns, by the streets.

And of course, local cities, counties, municipalities are working very hard to collect as much of that as possible, but time is running out. And it's probably not realistic to assume that all of that debris will be able to be collected before the storm hits. So from the wind perspective, that unfortunately just means there's more debris, more projectiles to be lofted into the air and to be thrown about to cause damage. And that, of course, is another unfortunate piece. You know, I think overall, you know, I, on that personal level, certainly feel it. And I think many others are. It's also just exhausting to be going through another storm so soon after that. I think we all feel that. I think we all would love to just see Milton go away, to disappear, to no longer be. But

unfortunately, that's not what the forecast is at this point. So yeah, we're definitely in a vulnerable position, and that's unfortunate for our areas. And we're certainly feeling and hurting for our communities and for our own personal lives as well. I mean, Austin, I do want to ask you about this personally, because you are there. You are not just working there. This is your community. What are you doing to prepare and ensure that you and your loved ones just stay as safe as you possibly can? Yeah, so on that note here, you know, I live here too, and I've grown up actually in this area. I've lived my life here, and I love where I live. But, you know, this is something that we all face every year.

We face this risk of hurricanes. You know, an important part of, I think, being able to get through these storms as they come like this is being prepared in the first place, to having planned, to knowing, though, too, that you're not going through it alone and that there are many others that are going through it with you and that there will be people to help and support all of us as our community comes back to be. You know, I've made sure in my own preparations that, you know, my home is safe, that my home is protected. I have storm shutters. So I took some time to put up my storm shutters in between shifts here at our office. And I've made sure that my family is in a safe location as well. So yeah, I mean, I think that kind of embodies a lot of

what everyone should be doing, right? And the value of being proactive as opposed to reactive about it. Having a plan in place beforehand, knowing how things are going to go, certainly takes some of the stress and burden off when you find yourself in a really intense situation like we are now. Austin Flannery is a meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Tampa Bay office. Austin, thank you for your time and please stay safe. Thank you. You as well. This episode was produced by Catherine Fink. It was edited by Courtney Dorning.

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