Consider This from NPR - Iran's attack on Israel is a major escalation. What comes next for the region?

Episode Date: April 15, 2024

Iran launched a barrage of more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel over the weekend, saying it was in response to an airstrike earlier this month that hit Iran's consulate in Syria and killed seven Iranian military officials, including two generals.Israel neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the Syria strike, though the Pentagon said Israel was responsible.Sima Shine is a former senior Israeli intelligence official. She now runs the Iran desk at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. She says this attack is "crossing the Rubicon" from the point of view of Iran, and explains what Israel's retaliation could be.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hundreds of drones and missiles lit the night sky above Israel and the West Bank over the weekend as Iran launched its first-ever direct attack on Israeli soil. Air raid sirens and booms filled the air. Nearly all of the projectiles were intercepted by Israel and its allies' air defense systems. But it was a moment that realized a fear world leaders have held since the war in Gaza began six months ago. The Middle East is on the brink. That's Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres. The people of the region are confronting a real danger of a devastating full-scale conflict. Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate. Now is the time for maximum restraint. Iran said it launched its attack against Israel in response to an airstrike earlier this month that hit Iran's consulate in Syria

and killed seven Iranian military officials. Israel neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for that attack in Syria, though the Pentagon said Israel was responsible. Yesterday, a senior Iranian military official said Iran's operation against Israel was over, but tensions in the region are still high. I think Israel is in a true dilemma. On one hand, Israel needs to retaliate by kinetic strike against Iran itself. That is Danny Citrinowicz with the Institute for National Security Studies, who also served in Israeli intelligence for decades. But the problem is that by doing so, Israel will actually open a Pandora box that will probably lead to an escalation.

Escalation that is problematic to Israel, mainly because the U.S. is not backing Israel in retaliating towards Iran. Consider this. Iran's first ever direct military attack on Israel could mean the start of a wider conflict in the Middle East. How will Israel, the U.S., and other countries respond to Iran's escalation? From NPR. What is the next move in the Middle East? What might Israel do? How far might Israel go in response to Iran's attack over the weekend? Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles on Saturday night, which was Iran's response to Israel's attacking its diplomatic compound in Damascus back on April 1st.

Well, let's bring in Seema Shine, former head of research and analysis for Israel's espionage agency, the Mossad. When I spoke to her from Tel Aviv earlier today, Seema Shine, like so many others, characterized the attack this weekend as unprecedented. How big an escalation does this represent in your view of what has been a long running shadow war between your country and Iran? Yeah, I think it's crossing the Rubicon from the point of view of Iran. Iran never did before anything similar to that. In spite of everybody telling the Iranians not to do it, they decided to do it and they took upon themselves the responsibility for escalation. What is interesting is that during the time that all these elements were on their way from Iran to Israel, their ambassador in the UN already came out and said,

we have launched, but it's finished, and we don't want to escalate. So everything was prepared, and they believed that they can stop it without escalation. Well, on the scale of everything from Israel doing nothing at all to Israel then going on to escalate from here? What is the range of options for how you see Israel responding? It's very difficult to evaluate because in the last hours here in Israel, there is a decision to retaliate. That doesn't mean that we understand what kind of retaliation, but yesterday I could say that it looks as if Israel decided not to retaliate immediately. And today it looks different.

Today it looks from what we hear from the cabinet meeting and from meetings that are planned by the prime minister and the leaders of the opposition. Usually it is the tradition in Israel that if we go for something that might deteriorate to a war or something like that, something big, the prime minister is addressing the opposition, the heads of the opposition. So this is going to happen in the coming hours. And I also saw some reports coming from Washington that there was a telephone call between our defense minister and the secretary of defense, and that Israel announced that it's going to retaliate. I don't know what will be the way Israel will choose, because there are different options, but it looks as if we are going to a new stage. In terms of that range of options, is there one that seems more likely? Is there one that seems more wise in your view?

Yeah, you have put it very well. There are two options. One is what looks like possible, and the other what is more wise. I personally didn't think that Israel has to retaliate immediately. I was thinking, and that's what I have been saying openly today and yesterday, that Israel can take the time and prepare some sophisticated retaliation, not just shooting missiles and others on Iran, but some more sophisticated way of doing something in Iran in the future and to use the strategic unprecedented regional network of anti-missile defense that was operating Saturday night. This is something that we should use the opportunity to get into closer relations with our neighbors under the umbrella of CENTCOM and the U.S. And I think this is the future of Israel, and we should look on the future and not on the immediate retaliation. But I'm not in the government anymore.

Just to push you on this, we said you and Israel knew these strikes were coming. That is because Iran telegraphed days in advance they were going to happen, gave days for Israel and its allies to prepare. Does that give Israel room to de-escalate? I think this and the fact that at the end nothing dramatic happened could give Israel the opportunity to de-escalate or to postpone de-escalation and not to do it while we are in Gaza and fighting on the north and everything.

But from what I hear, and I say it's only open sources, it looks as if there is a feeling in the army, in the security establishment that Israel cannot afford itself not to retaliate. The fact that they didn't succeed to penetrate Israel, but if all these more than 300 drones and missiles could penetrate Israel, well, that could be a dramatic damage. How worried are you about the risk of escalation? I don't know if it could escalate even without Iran retaliating.

They could just ask Hezbollah to start a full-scale war, which is not... We have a war with Hezbollah now, but it's not a full-scale war. They could use other proxies. It could even without Iran itself. Because at the end of the day, I believe the regime in Iran doesn't want a war.

A big percentage of the population doesn't like the regime, and I think they don't want a war. But many times in history, no one wanted a war, and still miscalculation escalated to a war. Exactly. Last thing, when you and I last spoke, we talked about your granddaughters, and you told me they're young, and you were trying to explain everything happening, the October 7th attack and the war in Gaza, and that you were telling them it's like a play,

it's like make-believe, you know, to make it less scary. May I ask how you're talking with them now? Yeah. You know, the day before the attack on Israel, the big one, which is a small one, but she's the bigger one, told me, you know, for a long time there are no missiles anymore. And then came the Saturday night and, well, nothing happened in Israel. But it's interesting that this is the experience of a four-year-old child that for a long time there are no missiles anymore. That that would be something they would notice and that would strike them because it's become such a part of their short life.

Yeah, yeah, exactly, exactly. Sima Shahin, former senior Mossad official. She now runs the Iran desk at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Seema Shine, thank you. Thank you very much. This episode was produced by Janaki Mehta with audio engineering by Kweisi Lee. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and James Heider. Our executive producer is Sammy Yinnigan.

It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.