Consider This from NPR - Is Russia About To Invade Ukraine? NATO, U.S. Promise 'Massive Consequences'

Episode Date: January 14, 2022

Secretary of State Antony Blinken says the U.S. is planning "things that we have not done in the past" if Russia invades Ukraine. His comments follow days of diplomatic talks and a deadlock on resolving the crisis brewing along the Ukraine-Russia border, where Russia has massed 100,000 troops with tanks and artillery.Blinken speaks to NPR's Mary Louise Kelly about the current tensions and this week's diplomatic efforts. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment that will help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Is Russia about to invade Ukraine? No one knows for sure. Still no diplomatic breakthrough as the U.S. and its NATO allies try to convince Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from the border with Ukraine. This week, the U.S. and its NATO allies have been trying to bring down the temperature, with Russia stationing tanks, artillery, and 100,000 troops around Ukraine on three sides. Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued several demands of NATO, including a halt to U.S. military deployments in NATO countries like Romania. Russia also wants NATO to rule out ever admitting Ukraine as a member. The U.S. position? No way. I don't see, and Russia's main focus here, which is achieving a failed state in Ukraine, how we could overcome these things.

That is retired Army Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Vindman, a Ukraine expert who served on former President Trump's National Security Council. You may remember him as the whistleblower on that famous phone call, the one where Trump urged the president of Ukraine to investigate his political rivals. Well, today, Vindman sees a Ukraine under threat from Russia, a threat in his view that's about two things. The first one is Ukraine as a success makes the Russian exercise of managed democracy a failed experiment. If Ukraine can transition to a democracy, why can't Russia do the same thing? And the second, says Vindman, is that Moscow fears Ukraine may slip from its sphere of influence, as other Eastern European countries did after the collapse of the Soviet Union,

giving NATO, including the U.S., a foothold in a key country on its Western front. And that's the part that's really missing from this broader vision on what Ukraine means to U.S. national security. It's a linchpin. There's only probably about a handful of places around the globe as meaningful as Ukraine in terms of geopolitics. Consider this. The second year of the Biden administration is beginning with the threat of armed conflict in Europe. I asked the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, how likely that outcome is and what the U.S. is willing to do to prevent it. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It's Friday, January 14th.

This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today, or visit WISE.com. T's and C's apply. It's Consider This from NPR. We started with the question of whether Russia is going to invade Ukraine. Now, it is worth remembering, Russia already has. Here's what Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, told me last month. Russia already invaded. Crimea remained illegally annexed. You're talking about

2014 and the Russian invasion of the Crimean Peninsula. Yes. So for the past eight years, we are in the situation which is far from perfect. And Russian troops already are in Crimea, which is Ukraine, and in part of Donetsk and Lugansk territories. So unfortunately, this is nothing new to us. Not a new fight, but one the Ukrainian people think is worth having,

Mark Korova told me, even while acknowledging it's a fight they cannot win on their own. The majority of Ukrainians support Euro-Atlantic movement, has been member of NATO. So yes, we will fight for our independence. We will fight for our European future and for Ukraine to remain a sovereign country. This is about the civilizational choice for us. The question is how far Russia will go to stop that from happening. Here's how I put it to Alexander Vindman, the Ukraine specialist who worked for Trump and then testified against him

in the impeachment proceedings. As I said at the beginning, no one knows for sure whether Putin will invade. But based on what you can see now, based on your military expertise, where would you rate the chances? Scale of one to 10? I would say I'm somewhere at an eight. Right now, as far apart as the sides are, Russians have laid out a maximalist position. The US said it's not willing to negotiate on very principled positions. There is the most likely scenario in my mind is a major military offensive in Ukraine. I hope I'm wrong, but that's what I see. The less likely scenario is some sort of diplomatic negotiation with some off ramps, with some face saving measures, where the Russians could say, well, we are in the midst of negotiations. We might be able to

achieve what we want. I find that hard to believe we'll head in that direction. And as for negotiations, well, as we record this on Friday, deadlock is a fair word to sum up where things stand. Here's how NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg described the situation to NPR. There is a real danger for renewed armed conflict in Europe. At the same time, that just makes it even more important to engage with Russia and to send a clear message that if they use force, there will be severe consequences for them. And that we are ready to sit down and engage in constructive dialogue if they are ready to do so. But as we said, so far the dialogue has not been productive. So where do things go from here? A question I put to America's top diplomat,

Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Before you hear that, a note. We spoke to Secretary Blinken on Thursday before we learned that the U.S. government believes Russia may be working on a false flag operation in eastern Ukraine that is a pretext for an invasion if diplomacy doesn't pan out. A U.S. official told reporters Friday possible plans include, quote, fabricating Ukrainian provocations and using social media to emphasize narratives about the deterioration of human rights abuses in Ukraine. So yet another wrinkle in a crisis where, as you'll hear in my conversation with Secretary of State Blinken, there's no immediate off-ramp in sight. Secretary, welcome. Good to speak again. Great to be with you, Mary Louise.

So the readouts are pretty bleak. We just heard there the view from NATO. On the Russian side, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov is calling the talks unsuccessful. Did Russia give any ground? Are you walking away from these talks with anything? We've had an intense week of diplomacy, both directly between the United States and Russia, at NATO, as you just said, also just today at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. And we have shared with the Russians our deep concerns about the actions they're taking, not only with regard to Ukraine, but more broadly, they've shared their concerns. We've given each other, I think, a fair bit to consider. Our plan now is to go back and consult

very closely with our allies and partners. I suspect that they will be doing the same thing in Moscow, and we're prepared to take this in either direction. My question again, though, did Russia give any ground? It wasn't a question of giving ground. We were not expecting breakthroughs. This is not a negotiation at this point. It really is putting their concerns on the table, putting our concerns on the table. We've said a few things that the President's been very clear about throughout. One, in all of this, we are doing nothing about allies and partners in Europe without them. So we're in very close consultation, coordination with them. Second, we've said nothing will happen

unless it's on the basis of reciprocity, by which I mean if we're going to do anything to address any legitimate Russian concerns, they have to do the same thing when it comes to our concerns. We've now had an ability to share directly those concerns. The third thing, though, is that if there's actually going to be progress, Marie-Louise, it's not going to happen in an environment of escalation with a gun to Ukraine's head. So we're going to need to see some meaningful de-escalation if there is actually going to be concrete progress. Russia has to internalize all of this. We're doing the same thing.

We'll consult closely now in the days ahead with our partners and see where the Russians are. But we haven't given them too fast. If anything, though, the messaging out of Moscow today seems to be raising the stakes. A refusal today to rule out sending military assets to Cuba and Venezuela if the U.S. and our allies don't back down. There is constantly a tremendous amount of bluster. We've also heard different things from the Russians, so it's a little unclear exactly where they are.

We've heard other spokespersons talk about— After a week of talks, it's unclear exactly where they are. We've heard other spokespersons talk about... After a week of talks, it's unclear exactly where they are? It is. We've heard some of them talk about positive nuances, but we want results. Well, actually, we feel exactly the same way. And if there are going to be results, it's going to be in the context of de-escalation. But look, we've been very clear with Russia throughout this. There are two paths, and they can decide which path to follow. There is a path of diplomacy and dialogue, and we're committed to that. We believe that it's the best way forward. It's the most responsible way forward to deal with differences

and the situation in eastern Ukraine. On the other hand, if they choose confrontation, if they choose aggression, we're fully prepared for it. We've spent weeks, indeed months now, working in very close coordination with allies and partners at the G7, the EU, NATO, to prepare for Russian aggression and to make very clear that there'll be massive consequences if that's the path they pursue. You've used that phrase a lot in recent days, massive consequences. Now that these talks are behind us, can you elaborate on what that looks like? First of all, it's not just my phrase. It's a phrase that was used by the G7. These are the world's largest democratic economies, by the European Union, and by NATO, which means that it is the common position of all of us. Second, I'm not going to telegraph with specificity what

we would do, except to say that when it comes to sanctions, when it comes to economic and financial measures, as well as measures to, as necessary, reinforce Ukraine defensively, reinforce NATO defensively, we are planning and putting together things that we have not done in the past. And I think Russia is well aware of many of the things that we would do if they put us in a position where we have not done in the past. And I think Russia is well aware of many of the things that we would do if they put us in a position where we have to do them. Why not telegraph with specificity? Isn't the whole point of a warning to telegraph exactly what you're prepared to do?

Again, I think the Russians know quite well many of the things that are being discussed, being elaborated, being put together. But the question now really goes to Moscow and what path they choose. We've made clear how we think this would most responsibly play out. We remain fully committed to that, but we're also fully prepared if they choose aggression. I asked Alexander Vindman earlier this week, Alexander Vindman, the retired Army Lieutenant Colonel, former National Security Counsel, asked him where he rates the chances that Putin Putin is very good at is keeping his options open. And I suspect that that is a part of what he's doing now, looking to see what may work, what won't. And it may well be that he's not fully decided on what he's going to do. We have, I think, an important responsibility to help shape his thinking and, again, make very clear from our perspective what the options are,

what the consequences will be of the options that he could pursue. And when it comes to diplomacy and when it comes to dialogue, there are opportunities, I think, to address concerns that we all have about security in Europe and to make meaningful progress in ways that potentially could answer some Russian legitimate concerns and answer critically the many concerns that we and the Europeans have. Alternatively, as I said, if he chooses renewed aggression against Ukraine, that's going to have consequences too. He has to factor all of that in. We can't make those decisions for him. We can certainly make clear what the results will be from one path or another. If I'm hearing you right, you're basically saying the ball is in Putin's court,

that he knows where the U.S. and U.S. allies are, but that feels like a really worrying place to be with 100,000 Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border. Well, it really goes to the point that we are where we are like a really worrying place to be with 100,000 Russian troops massed on the Ukrainian border. Well, it really goes to the point that we are where we are precisely because Russia has taken these actions of massing forces on Ukraine's border and creating itself by its actions a crisis. We have, in a very coordinated, deliberate way over the last couple of months, put in place a very clear response to the actions that Russia's taken. It's at Russia's initiative that we're in this situation. We have now put together a very strong coalition of countries in Europe and even beyond through the G7, to respond to shape President Putin's calculus

and the choices that he makes. Ultimately, we can't make those choices for him. We can just lay out in very stark terms what the consequences will be from the choices he makes. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the line there from the State Department. We appreciate your time. Thank you. Thanks. Very good to be with you. It's Consider This. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.