Consider This from NPR - No Red Wave But A Divided Government Is Still A Possibility

Episode Date: November 9, 2022

The "red wave" of Republican gains that some predicted didn't come to pass during the midterm elections. As of Wednesday afternoon, control of both houses of Congress was still up for grabs.But it appears likely that the country is headed for a divided government. And if history is any guide, that could mean a lot of stalemates. Two political veterans explain what to expect: Ron Bonjean, a strategist with a long career of working for Republicans in both chambers of Congress, and Jim Messina, former Deputy Chief of Staff to President Obama.In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

This message comes from Indiana University. Indiana University performs breakthrough research every year, making discoveries that improve human health, combat climate change, and move society forward. More at iu.edu forward. Both parties made big promises during this midterm campaign. Give Democrats control of Congress, President Biden said, and they'll create a national right to an abortion. Here's the promise I make to you and the American people. The first bill that I will send to the Congress will be to codify Roe v. Wade.

And when Congress passes it, I'll sign it in January, 50 years after Roe was first decided the law of the land. And House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy promised that if Republicans got control, they would repeal the tax enforcement provision of Democrats' Inflation Reduction Act. On that very first day that we're sworn in, you'll see that it all changes. Because on our very first bill, we're going to repeal 87,000 IRS agents. But a day after the final ballots were cast, neither of those visions for the next two years looked very close to reality. Too close to call. Key races still to be decided. Control of Congress hanging in the balance.

As of this taping Wednesday afternoon, neither the Senate nor the House has been clenched. The red wave that many predicted never quite materialized. Here's how Republican Senator Lindsey Graham put it on NBC on election night. Definitely not a Republican wave, that's for darn sure. I was in charge of Guam, so I want to take credit for that. Though Republicans did score some big wins. for example, in statewide races in Florida, where incumbent Republican Governor Ron DeSantis was reelected. Thanks to the overwhelming support of the people of Florida, we not only won election, we have rewritten the political map.

But as results continue to trickle in, it's clear that neither party has an overwhelming mandate. There's a real possibility we'll be looking at a divided government, and the results certainly suggest a divided country. President Biden talked about the outcome in his first post-election press conference. Let me say this. Regardless of what the final tally of these elections show, and there's still some counting going on, I'm prepared to work with my Republican colleagues. The American people have made clear, I think, that they expect Republicans to be prepared to work with me as well.

Consider this. With bare majorities or a divided government, history suggests Democrats and Republicans will struggle to get much done on their priorities over the next two years. What could that mean for the two parties? We'll hear from two people with experience trying to negotiate congressional stalemates. From NPR, I'm Juana Summers. It's Wednesday, November 9th. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally, and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees.

Download the WISE app today, or visit WISE.com. T's and C's apply. It's Consider This from NPR. As of our Wednesday afternoon taping, we do not yet know if Republicans will take control of the House or the Senate. If they do, it will be the latest in a long line of congressional losses for the party of the sitting president. And those swings have often meant contentious working relationships. Take 2018. The Democrats had just retaken the House, and the top Democrats in Congress, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, went to meet then-President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.

Nancy, would you like to say something? Well, thank you, Mr. President, for the opportunity to meet with you so that we can work together in a bipartisan way. A meeting that was ostensibly about funding the government devolved pretty quickly into an argument about the election results. And we've gained in the Senate. Nancy, we've gained in the Senate. Excuse me, did we win the Senate? We won the Senate. When the president brags that he won North Dakota and Indiana, he's in real trouble.

I did. Go back a little further to President Obama's first term. His biggest legislative achievement, the Affordable Care Act, passed during his second year in office. Then came the midterms and Republicans took over the Senate and House. GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell said explicitly that their top priority was to limit Obama to one term. The fact is, if our primary legislative goals are to repeal and replace the health spending bill, to end the bailouts, cut spending, and shrink the size and scope of government, the only way to do all of those things is to put someone in the White House who won't veto any of these things. McConnell failed in denying Obama a second

term, but for the remainder of his presidency, Obama was unable to get legislation passed on his priority issues like gun control, immigration, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. So what might this all portend for the next two years? For some ideas, I'm joined by Ron Bonjean. He's a GOP strategist with a long career of working for Republicans in both chambers of Congress, and also by Jim Messina, former Deputy Chief of Staff to President Obama. Welcome to you both. Thank you very much. Thanks for having us. So Jim, I want to start with you here. As I look back on the Obama administration, Obamacare, of course, was a signature accomplishment,

and it passed when Democrats had control of Congress. But shortly thereafter, Republicans took over the House, and President Biden may now find himself in a similar situation if Republicans do take control of the chamber. What could that mean for Biden's legislative agenda moving forward? Well, it means he's going to have to find things he can do with the Republicans. And when I was running the effort to pass Obamacare, we didn't take President Obama up to the hill. We took Joe Biden because Joe Biden was really well-respected by both sides and could cut the deals. And you saw him do that last year with the infrastructure bill, which passed with bipartisan support. So he's going to look for

those things that he can work with the House Republicans on. And then he'll look for ways to also say there's very clear differences between the parties. So both those things I think you'll likely see from the White House in the next two years. No matter which party controls the House, it looks like we will again see a narrowly divided chamber. Ron, if Republicans do take control, what might that look like for them? And Kevin McCarthy, who would be the likely House speaker in that scenario? Right. I used to work for a Speaker of the House that had a 5C majority in the 2000s when Republicans had control. And what we found are there are smaller groups of members that form that can have great leverage over whether bills come to the House

floor and what they look like. You'll have smaller groups of people with louder voices and a bigger spotlight on them that will force the leadership to the table to negotiate and figure out how they can move forward. And additionally, there will be a lot of pressure on likely incoming Speaker McCarthy to start using the House as a loudspeaker for the 2024 election to show America, this is what we would do differently if we were given control of the White House. This is how we're going to lead. Jim, earlier this month, before the end of voting, President Biden said that it would be, and I'm quoting him here, a horrible two years if Democrats lost the House and Senate. And then he pointed out that he would have a veto pen at his disposal. To your mind, is that ultimately President Biden's sharpest tool

in a narrowly divided Congress? He has three tools in a narrowly divided Congress. The first is his veto pen, and he can definitely express his displeasure. The second thing he can do is executive orders, and that's what President Trump did after he lost the House. That's what President Obama did. And the third thing is compromise, right? So those are the three things that Joe Biden really has the ability to do. And I think you'll see him exercise all three. Ron, I want to ask you, do you have any concern at all that Republican leaders like McCarthy, who could end up as House Speaker, will have trouble keeping the caucus at bay, given some of the members, the potential members that have been elected that will be coming into the new Congress, and that that could potentially be an impediment to passing the kind of legislation that the party hopes to achieve.

One of the philosophies that we had in the 2000s is that we didn't bring anything to the floor unless we had a majority of the majority of members supporting it. So if a majority of House Republicans would support a piece of legislation going to the floor, then it's going to make it there. That could mean that there will be a lot of backroom negotiating and deal-making before we get to that point. The Freedom Caucus and other members are going to be very outspoken in demanding attention and demanding they get their due. We've already seen lots of documents being put forward by the Freedom Caucus on what they are planning to do next year, which shows how forceful their loudspeaker is going to be. Inflation was a top issue heading into the midterms, and Republicans across the country

blamed President Biden and Democrats for rising costs. But I'd like to ask each of you, is a divided government in some ways good for the economy? This is Ron. I'd have to say yes, because one of the reasons that we're in an inflationary period is because of a large amount of government spending. With a check on the Biden administration, I don't think we're going to see the trillions of dollars going to the president's desk for a signature. So yes, I do think it would be very healthy for the economy. The economy does need to cool off in order to bring inflation down. So more spending probably isn't the answer. This is Jim. I see it a little bit differently. I think what is true is that all around the world, you're seeing this inflation happen. And it's in large part because of the time we're in post-COVID and then the Ukrainian war, it's not like these other countries aren't having the same problems. And I think this is the time when both parties need to find ways to move the economy forward. I think the country likes divided government as little as Ron and I want it in our personal lives.

The country really likes it. And that's why, you know, seven of the last eight elections, either the White House, the House or the Senate has flipped. Voters really do want both parties to work together, and I'm hopeful that both parties will start to get that message. I'd like to ask you before we let you go, for each of you, you've both been in Washington for quite some time. You know a number of the players who will be governing this country in the new year with this likely divided government. What's one piece of advice you have for how to govern a divided country effectively? This is Jim Messina. I think that very clear

communication and making sure people understand exactly what you're doing and why you're doing it. And then second, never forget the people that elected you and what they want. And they keep saying over and over and over to both parties, we want you to work together. We want you to figure out some of these things. And my advice would be listen to the voters. They are much smarter than they're given credit for in Washington, D.C. This is Ron Bonjean. I think that's a really great point. To keep the phone lines open, the communication lines open between the White House, the Speaker, and the Majority Leader, while the politics are being played out, to be able to talk

to each other and figure out where there could be any points of common ground. And we have seen a number of members not win their elections because they didn't listen to the voters back home. They got caught up in the national spotlight and the attention you get from taking more hardline positions, and many of them aren't coming back. So I think it's really important to stay in touch with your elected leaders to find out where the pressure points are to get things done. Ron Bonjean is a Republican strategist and Jim Messina is the former deputy chief of staff to President Obama. Thanks to both of you.

Thank you. Thank you so much. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Juana Summers.