Consider This from NPR - Putin Survived An Uprising. What's Next?

Episode Date: June 26, 2023

Russian President Vladimir Putin faced a direct challenge to his authority over the weekend. Mercenary fighters with the Wagner group took over a military headquarters and launched a march toward Moscow.The group's leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, eventually called off the uprising. He's apparently accepted a deal to live in exile, and claims the weekend's events were a protest, not an attempt to overthrow the government.NPR's Charles Maynes in Moscow, and Greg Myre in Kyiv, explain what the turmoil could mean for the future of Putin's rule and the course of the war in Ukraine.In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

This message comes from Indiana University. Indiana University is committed to moving the world forward, working to tackle some of society's biggest challenges. Nine campuses, one purpose. Creating tomorrow, today. More at iu.edu. Vladimir Putin has been president of Russia for most of the last 20 years. And for much of that time, he's appeared firmly in control. So his opponents were excited this weekend when it suddenly seemed like his grip might be slipping. Everything which can diminish the power of Putin's regime is good. So when we heard about this news, we were very positive.

That's Ilya in Istanbul, Turkey. The city has become a haven for anti-war Russians since the invasion of Ukraine. NPR is not using Ilya's full name because he still works remotely for a Russian company. The news he was following was about an uprising by the Wagner Group. Its leader, Yevgeny Progozhin, oversaw a mercenary force fighting alongside Russia's military in Ukraine. Its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, oversaw a mercenary force fighting alongside Russia's military in Ukraine. By Saturday, those mercenaries had taken control of a Russian military headquarters and launched a march towards Moscow. Putin responded with an address to the nation. He called the uprising a stab in the back and treason.

Watching in Istanbul, Ilya hoped this could be the spark for a widespread armed resistance to Putin. Instead, he says it was like watching a favorite show end with a whimper. It was like the worst end of 30 years ago. It was a fluke. As quickly as it began, it was over. Progozhin announced his troops were turning around, apparently accepting a deal to live in exile. Later, he claimed that it was never an attempt to overthrow the government, but a protest.

Putin remains in power. But Ilya told NPR's Fatma Tanis that something has changed. Do you feel like Putin is weaker now? Yeah, of course. At least, OK, if he doesn't care about international reaction, I think he doesn't care to some extent. But for general public, they saw that Putin is not so powerful. Consider this. The chaos over the weekend was the biggest threat to Vladimir Putin's rule since he came to power more than two decades ago. The aftermath could have major consequences for Putin and for the war he's waging in Ukraine. From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro. It's Monday, June 26th. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies.

Send, spend, or receive money internationally, and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today, or visit WISE.com. T's and C's apply. Support for NPR comes from NPR member stations and Eric and Wendy Schmidt through the Schmidt Family Foundation, working toward a healthy, resilient, secure world for all. On the web at theschmidt.org. Support for NPR and the following message come from Carnegie Corporation of New York, working to reduce political polarization through philanthropic support for education, democracy, and peace. More information at carnegie.org. It's Consider This from NPR. NPR is one of the few news organizations that currently has

correspondence in both Russia and Ukraine. So we got them together to hear how this weekend's events looked from each country's capital. NPR's Charles Maines in Moscow and Greg Myrie in Kiev. Good to have you both here. Hi there. Hi, Ari. I want to get to Ukraine in a moment, but to start in Russia. Charles, tell us what it's like in Moscow today. Well, it's been very quiet and almost eerily so, as I think the authorities are trying to project calm after this weekend's chaotic events.

Today, in fact, was a non-working day here on the orders of the city mayor, which has prompted jokes that the only concrete thing that came out of this very confusing 24-hour uprising was a holiday. Might as well enjoy it. Let's talk about the leader of the uprising, Yevgeny Prokhorin, who was behind the rebellion. He leads the Wagner mercenary group, which until now has been fighting for Russia against Ukraine. Where is he and what did he say today? Well, according to the Kremlin, he's supposed to be in Belarus in exile under this amnesty deal brokered late Saturday. Yet today, Prokhorin resurfaced with a lengthy audio message on his social media account that didn't tell us where he was, but focused on why he did what he did. Let's listen. So here Prokhorin says his fighters marched on the capital as an act of protest, but not with the goal of overthrowing the Russian government. And he went on to explain that Wagner fighters were angry over an order that would place the mercenary group subordinate to the defense ministry beginning next month.

He claimed his mercenaries hadn't wanted any violence, although he acknowledged destroying military helicopters that he said had been attacking Wagner positions. And once again, we heard Prokhorin go after the top brass, which is, of course, what started this whole crisis. Prokhorin said that the ease of Wagner's march into Russia and up towards Moscow, again, highlighted the failures of the military leadership. In contrast, Prokosin said Wagner had conducted what he called a master class in how Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine should have and possibly could have gone in the first place if, of course, Wagner had been entrusted with the job.

Charles, President Putin addressed the weekend's events in a statement today. What did he say? Yeah, in fact, we heard from Putin this evening in what the Kremlin spokesman billed as a speech that would define the fate of Russia. I'm not sure it did that, but Putin congratulated Russian society for coming together to put down this revolt. He again denounced the uprising as a criminal act. He said he would hold to this deal for the Wagner fighters. They could sign up with the military to keep fighting, go home, or join Prokhorin in exile in Belarus. It was their choice. Now, many Western observers have argued Putin looked weak, giving this amnesty deal to rebels he vowed to crush just a few days earlier. Yet here in Moscow,

we've seen a different take, that faced with a serious crisis, Putin made the smart call. Viktor Lutovkin is a veteran military analyst with the state TASS news agency. Lutovkin told me this was a serious threat that could have led to civil war and split the country apart at a crucial moment when it's fighting in Ukraine. And Lutovkin credits President Putin with having what he calls the wisdom as a leader to not allow blood to be spilt and find a relatively peaceful outcome. Well, let's turn to Kiev. Greg, how are people in Ukraine reacting to all this? Well, they were glued to the events over the weekend. President Volodymyr Zelensky and other leaders said the events in Russia just confirm what they've been saying all along, that Russia

is weak and fractured and the only permanent solution is to drive out all the Russian forces. And as soon as the rebellion ended here, attention reverted back to the war very quickly, which has continued at the same intense pace. Ukraine has been kind of bogged down in this offensive. Is the uprising in Russia likely to change Ukraine's approach? You know, there's no sign of that so far, no indication that the turmoil inside Russia has translated into disarray on the battlefield. The Russians still appear very well entrenched. Now, the Ukrainians stress that the bulk of the forces designated for this offensive, the ones that have been trained and equipped in recent months with U.S. and NATO weapons, still haven't been deployed. And I can say that U.S. military hardware is very much in evidence here. I've been to a number of Ukrainian military sites in recent days. I've seen U.S. Stinger

missiles mounted on the back of U.S. Humvees, American river patrol boats with U.S. machine guns on them. I've seen troops training with MRAPs, these hulking vehicles that can withstand landmines. So the Ukrainians have more firepower than at any point in the war, but they haven't fully unleashed it yet. And if the Russian side loses the help of the Wagner mercenary army, Charles, is that going to weaken Russia's assault? Well, Prokhorin would obviously say yes. And there's no doubt that Wagner has played an important role in securing places like

Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, where they were largely responsible for taking the city, albeit at a great human cost. In today's message, Prokhorin insisted 98% of his forces remain opposed to the defense ministry leadership. So the question is really, what do the Wagner fighters do now that Putin has put this off route there? Do they join back into the ranks of the military or take the exit ramp elsewhere? And what is the state of the clash on the battlefield, Greg? Yeah, Ukraine said today that they've captured another village. This is the ninth they've claimed so far. They've also reclaimed about 50 square miles in this offensive, which is now in its third week.

So that's progress, but it's very slow. The fighting is very heavy. Casualties appear to be high on both sides. The Russian forces are just contesting everything. The Ukrainians have already lost some of the U.S. and European armored vehicles that they recently received. Ukraine has yet to retake or even fight for any significant towns or cities. The clear goal is to get all the way to the southeast coast and split the Russian forces in two. But the Ukrainians are still at least 60 miles away from the coast. So Ukraine is trying to manage expectations, saying this will take months and there'll be a lot of heavy fighting. That is NPR's Greg Myrie in Kiev and Charles Mainz in Moscow.

Thank you both. Sure thing, Ari. Thank you. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro. Support for NPR and I'm Ari Shapiro.