Consider This from NPR - Russia May Be Able To Attack Ukraine From The Inside

Episode Date: February 16, 2022

Despite reports that Russia may have withdrawn some troops from the Ukraine border, NATO says there's no evidence of de-escalation and forces remain ready to attack. But it's not just the border that is at risk. NPR correspondent Frank Langfitt reports on hybrid war tactics like cyberattacks that Russia can, and may already be using to spark unrest in Ukraine. And Mary Louise Kelly speaks with Russian journalist Vladimir Pozner about how the crisis feels in his country. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for NPR and the following message come from the Kauffman Foundation, providing access which is exactly what Svetlana Frolova had in mind when she and her five-year-old son trekked over from their hometown, Kharkiv. Frolova told NPR's Joanna Kakisis that she's in Lviv because she's afraid. Her town is just 25 miles from the Russian border, so with the ongoing threat of a Russian invasion, she took her five-year-old son and headed west. It's all much better organized than our hometown, where there are no shelters and it feels much more dangerous. Lviv is a short drive from neighboring Poland and has become a de facto safe haven for those who fear conflict with Russia. Back in 2014, thousands of Ukrainians relocated there as war over Crimea began. It is the safer zone. Yeah, it is. And the possibility of invasion getting right here is rather small.

Tour guide Ivanka Onok explains that it's not just the physical distance that creates the feeling of safety. It's also the fact that this part of Ukraine has more cultural influence from Europe. This city from its very beginnings was connected and incorporated into the cultural space of Europe in general. Walking over the streets in Lviv, you might see whole Europe in miniature. Lviv is also where the U.S. and other embassies have moved their staff and operations in recent days. The fact remains right now Russia has more than 150,000 troops encircling Ukraine in Belarus and along Ukraine's border. An invasion remains distinctly possible. Yesterday,

President Biden gave an update on the situation at the Ukrainian border. That's why I've asked several times that all Americans in Ukraine leave now before it's too late to leave safely. It is why we have temporarily relocated our embassy fromiv to Lviv. But despite the rising tensions, Biden reiterated that there's still time for diplomacy and that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to keep an open line of communication. And then Biden did something a little different. He spoke directly to people in Russia.

To the citizens of Russia, you are not our enemy, and I do not believe you want a bloody, destructive war against Ukraine, a country and a people with whom you share such deep ties of family, history and culture. Consider this. The threat to Ukraine remains high, but it's more than just Russian troops standing at the ready. Coming up, we'll look at hybrid warfare tactics that could target Ukraine from the inside, and how this tense moment feels from across the border in Russia. From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang. Send, spend, or receive money internationally and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees.

Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com. T's and C's apply. Support for NPR and the following message come from Yogi Tea. Take a moment to support your body and mind with Yogi Honey Chai Turmeric Vitality Tea, a delicious herbal tea blend made with turmeric and warming chai spices. Support your well-being with Yogi Tea. It's Consider This from NPR. There have been reports this week that Russia may have pulled back some of its troops from the Ukrainian border. But at a press conference on Wednesday in Brussels,

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he's not buying it. We do not see any sign of de-escalation on the ground. No withdrawals of troops or equipment. Stoltenberg, like President Biden, said diplomacy with Moscow is still on the table and we could very well see troops retreat. However, what we see today is that Russia maintains a massive invasion force ready to attack, with high-end capabilities from Crimea to Belarus. This is the biggest concentration of forces in Europe since the Cold War. But while the presence of troops at the border remains the obvious threat, people in Ukraine are worried about something else. Hybrid warfare tactics, like attempts to civil unrest, launch cyber attacks, and spread mass disinformation. Tactics that Russia has been known to use. NPR correspondent

Frank Langfitt is in the town of Kolinchak and has been reporting on this growing threat. Over the weekend, members of Ukraine's National Guard, Police and Border Patrol staged drills on how to put down a Russian-backed rebellion like the ones they've seen in the past. In this small town near Russian-occupied Crimea, a group of more than 50 men played demonstrators. They marched into the town square to protest the government, banging on empty fuel drums and only pausing to sing along with a recording of the Ukrainian national anthem. Some lit cars on fire, others wearing balaclavas and carrying AK-47s, seized a government building. Only to have the police and National Guard retake it with the help of an armored vehicle.

Kirill Oserheyev, an advisor to Ukraine's Ministry of Interior, watched from the street and explained. The main forces who protect the country from the enemy are the armed forces of Ukraine. But the army always needs time to deploy. We are now working on so-called first responders. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also attended the training. He wore a big winter coat in army green. The scene had a surreal quality. Firefighters had put out the burning cars with white foam retardant, which floated in the air like small clouds, as Zelensky addressed the Russian threat to a crowd of reporters. We understand that any offensive action and the occupation can begin within the state. We understand that surprises can come from anywhere.

Alexander Hara is a former Ukrainian diplomat who works with the Center for Defense Strategies, a key think tank. He says if there were an invasion, it would also include a cyber attack, which he says is a frequent Russian tactic, although Moscow routinely denies it. On the 14th of January this year, there was a massive cyber attack on Ukrainian governmental sites. Some 70 governmental systems were down. Hackers also took down the websites for the Ministry of Defense and the armed forces. And Horace says he anticipates more terror threats. He says there have already been more than 300 bomb scares called into schools this year. Last year, it was 1,100 calls. And certainly one of the key objectives of that is to shake in the, let's say, political stability.

Like many analysts here, Horace says the Russian president's strategy is to sow so much confusion, division, and chaos that Ukrainians will do his work for him. President Putin is a rational actor, and certainly he would love to Ukrainians to destroy our country by our own hands. Another hybrid war tool is disinformation. Yevhen Fedchenko is chief editor of the fact-checking website StopFake.org. A couple of days ago, they introduced the story that Ukrainian far-right radicals are building dirty bombs with nuclear components to use against Russians. Which is completely false. Fedchenko's interest here is also personal. He says Russian disinformation split his own family after Russia seized Crimea in 2014.

Some of his relatives living there plan to come to Kiev to retrieve their money from a bank. Then they call to tell him this. We're not going to Kiev because we watched Russian television and they explained that it's all Ukrainian far-right nationalists killing anyone speaking Russian. The claim was absurd. Russian is spoken throughout the country. But Fedchenko couldn't persuade them otherwise. They said they'd seen Putin on TV promise to provide some compensation for people like them for lost bank accounts. Fedchenko recalled them saying the most important thing was Crimea reuniting with Great Russia. That was actually our last conversation since 2014, and I never held back from them after that. And these were which, what kind of family members?

Were these extended or close family members? It was rather close family. While the world continues to focus on Russian troop movements near the border, many analysts here say the real contest is psychological. As one put it, the battle space is the mind. That was NPR correspondent Frank Langfitt. We focused much of our reporting over the last few weeks on how this moment feels in Ukraine, but it's also important to understand how this moment feels in Ukraine. But it's also important to understand how this situation is being viewed in Russia, which is why my co-host

Mary Louise Kelly called up Russian journalist Vladimir Posner. Why do ordinary people in Russia, why do they believe their country has all these troops, all these tanks on Ukraine's border? Well, first of all, you may be surprised to know that people aren't talking that much about it. There is not this constant drumming about the possibility of a war. It's there. It's on television. There's no doubt about it. But when people come together, they don't talk about it very much. They feel that it's exaggerated. They're absolutely certain, most of them at least, that Russia does not want a war and that there will not be a war. What's happening is both sides are trying to show who's bigger and who's stronger and who's boss. And a lot of people feel that's stupid.

And people say, look, this is our country. The troops are in our country. And they should be able to be wherever they want to be. Although it's a very big country. And yet there's some 130,000 on the border ringing Ukraine. Well, the numbers are different. Some say 100, some say 97. I don't think that's the point. And Russia does not ring Ukraine. On three sides of Ukraine, you're right.

But the feeling is, among most of the people I've spoken to, that this whole drumming up of the possibility or the reality of Russia attacking Ukraine is something that the West is interested in and that Russia doesn't want, because Russia can win nothing by invading Ukraine. On the contrary, it can lose a lot. Not only would it be a drawn-out guerrilla warfare kind of thing, which Russia cannot really bear, it would be total destruction of any kind of respect for Russia. There's nothing to win and a lot to lose. And there are people who say that's exactly what the West wants. I want to follow on something that you're saying there, that most Russians are absolutely certain that Russia does not want a war. It's fascinating because it is, you're right, totally the polar opposite

of what a lot of Americans are hearing and what a lot of Europeans are hearing, which is Vladimir Putin is picking a fight here. Well, here, the message is we don't want war. We don't want war. We don't want war. And on your side, it's quite the contrary. And most people, in my opinion, are victimized by their media. I really feel very strongly about that. I think journalists have acted very, very, how should I put this, irresponsibly in how they treat this subject. Russia. And I know I'm asking someone who is a member of the media generating that coverage. But is that in line with what you're telling me? You're saying most Russians aren't talking about this all that much. Is the media covering it all that much? Russians aren't talking about it all that much. They're talking about it. But yes, the Russian media definitely is talking about it. On television, there's a lot about it. There's a lot about what Putin's saying, a lot of quoting about what the West is saying. It's open information. It's not like you're only hearing what one side is saying. Here, you're really getting a pretty,

a pretty, I'd say, large picture of what is being said in general. You know, I've been asking you, what do Russians think, asking you to speak for your country, which would be something like you interviewing me and asking me to speak for Americans. There's obviously so many different views on all this. So let me ask what you think, what you are watching for in these coming days that seem to be a very pivotal moment in terms of how the situation with the standoff on the Russia-Ukraine border will play out? This is not about the Russian-Ukraine border. This is about a deep feeling on the part of the Russian leadership that should Ukraine become a

member of NATO, that would present an existential threat to Russia. It's very much like 1962 and the issue of Soviet missiles on Cuban soil, which they had the right to do. They had agreed the two independent countries and the United States, quite correctly in my opinion, saw this as an existential threat and said, we will not allow it. And if we have to sink your ships and bomb Cuba, we will do it. And whether that leads to World War III or not doesn't really matter. And that, in a way, is how the Russian leadership views the possibility of NATO troops finding themselves on Russia's border with Ukraine.

That's the real problem. If that problem can be solved somehow, if somehow the Ukrainians say, okay, we are not going to join NATO, forget about it. And we will guarantee that there would be no problem. That is the issue, the security as it is seen by the Russian leadership. And since you bring up the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 i suppose worth noting that that did not bring these countries to the brink of war they managed to find an off-ramp no no they did bring the countries to the brink of to the brink of war but not to war but you know the united states pulled out the 15 abm missiles that it had in in turkey without making a lot of noise about it and the

russians uh turned their ships around and sailed back to Russia. So the two leaders, Khrushchev and Kennedy, had the wisdom and the strength to do that. And I'm just hoping that Mr. Putin and President Biden, who are really the top players in this game, find the same way to deal with what is an extremely dangerous situation. That was Vladimir Posner, host of the TV program Posner, which is distributed by Russia's Channel 1. You're listening to Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang.