Consider This from NPR - Scotland May Try To Break Away From The United Kingdom — Again

Episode Date: May 5, 2021

On Thursday, Scots vote in Regional Parliamentary elections. That's not usually an international story, but the ruling Scottish National Party is running on a platform to hold another independence referendum. Another vote on whether Scotland should leave the United Kingdom. Northern Ireland and Wales could follow their lead.Scotland voted to stay in the U.K. during the last independence referendum in 2014. But then the Brexit vote happened. Scots heavily voted against leaving the European Union but were outnumbered by the British. Ultimately, the U.K. voted to leave the E.U.NPR's London correspondent Frank Langfitt has been driving across Scotland over the past few days, asking people how they feel about another referendum and the reviews are mixed. Ailsa Henderson, a senior lecturer at the University of Edinburgh, describes what might happen after this week's vote and what, if anything, is still keeping the U.K. together. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment that will help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

This message comes from Indiana University. Indiana University is committed to moving the world forward, working to tackle some of society's biggest challenges. Nine campuses, one purpose. Creating tomorrow, today. More at iu.edu. The Scottish Poetry Library is a modern sunlit building in Edinburgh, just steps from Scotland's Parliament. That's where I met Library Director Robin Marsack in September of 2014, the morning after Scottish voters decided not to leave the United Kingdom. I think a lot of people's hearts were broken today. But that there's also a feeling that something has been unleashed that can't be held back now. It's out there. Something was unleashed that day. And now, after centuries of relative stability,

the UK is once again at risk of breaking apart. Listen to what Scotland's leading historian, Sir Tom Devine, told NPR's London correspondent Frank Langfitt just this week. When was the last time the union here faced this big a threat? Between about 1707 and the 1740s. Are you serious? Yes, I'm serious. It's that bad? Yes, actually it is.

The main driver? Brexit. Scots heavily voted against leaving the European Union, but the English outnumber them by about 10 to 1, and England voted to break away from Europe. Brexit told the Scots that on a matter of major issue, of major policy, probably the biggest that's faced the UK since the Second World War, the opinion of the Scots did not matter. There are similar rumblings of frustration in Northern Ireland and Wales, but the part of the UK most at risk of leaving right now is Scotland. On Thursday, Scots vote in regional parliamentary elections.

Now, that's not usually an international story, but the ruling Scottish National Party is running on a platform to hold another independence referendum, another vote on whether Scotland should leave the UK. Nicola Sturgeon, the party's leader and Scotland's first minister, explains what could happen next. If after this election there is a simple democratic majority in the Scottish Parliament, there will be no democratic or moral justification for Boris Johnson or anyone else seeking to block the right of people in Scotland to decide their own future. As you might guess, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is not a fan. I don't think that the right thing to do is to talk endlessly about another referendum when I think what the people of Scotland want is for us to fight this pandemic. Consider this.

What holds a country together? Shared values? Identity? Economic necessity? Depending on how this vote goes, the United Kingdom could be headed for a constitutional crisis and perhaps the eventual breakup of a country that once ruled a global empire.

From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro. It's Wednesday, May 5th. This message comes from NPR sponsor VMware. With app, cloud, security, and workspace solutions, VMware helps companies navigate change, meeting them where they are, and getting them where they want to be faster. VMware, welcome change.

This message comes from NPR sponsor Deloitte, with insights and perspectives across a range of issues, including legislative policy, workforce strategy, and more, to help business leaders respond and reset confidently at Deloitte.com slash U.S. slash COVID-19. A few years ago, a website popped up in Stockton, California, and conspiracy theories started ramping way up. And it's being funded by a conservative movement underneath the table. And I was like, oh my gosh, you guys, people really believe this.

What happens when the local news outlet isn't fact-checking conspiracy theories, maybe encouraging them? Listen now from NPR's Invisibilia podcast. It's Consider This from NPR. The push for an independent Scotland isn't new. Back in 2014, it nearly happened. But still, 55% of Scottish voters opposed leaving the UK. So what's changed? You know, back then, some people who voted against independence, they did so because they

were told it was the only way to stay in the European Union. Then, of course, two years later, the UK votes to leave the EU. Many Scottish voters felt betrayed. NPR's Frank Langfford has spent the last few days driving hundreds of miles across Scotland talking to voters. And Frank spoke with me from the streets of Edinburgh, the Scottish capital, where I covered the first independence referendum in 2014. And he explained how Brexit has altered the calculus for people in Scotland. Some now support independence, so they think, they hope, that Scotland can take control of its destiny and go back into the EU. And one of them I met over the

weekend, her name's Fiona Thompson, she's an artist. I met her at this farmer's market in the northeast of Scotland and she explained to me how her attitude towards independence has really flipped since she first voted against it seven years ago. I voted no because at that time I thought it was our chance to stay in Europe. Then we got Brexit. Because we've left Europe, which I'm passionate about, I've probably now become someone who's agreed to independence. Frank, is there more going on here than just the impact of Brexit? There is. And I think you would definitely relate to this because you've spent a lot of time up here. Part of it's also national identity.

You know, Scotland, as you're well aware, is literally a separate nation inside the United Kingdom. It has its own regional parliament. It feels very different from England, much more liberal and, frankly, European. And the Scottish National Party, the politicians, they say independence is the only way for Scotland to basically have control over its fate. Now, there's a guy I also met named Fergus Mutch. He's running for the Scottish Parliament in the northeast for the Scottish National Party. And he's hoping to take a seat away from Boris Johnson's Conservative Party. Scotland as a country should make all decisions that affect us for ourselves.

And now we've got a pretty hard line, anti-European, increasingly isolationist government at Westminster that frankly doesn't represent most of the interests of the people of Scotland. And of course, for people, listeners, Westminster is the heart of the UK government. In American terms, it's like inside the Beltway. Okay, so people see Scotland as a very different country. They want political control. Tell us about the arguments against independence. Well, the strongest one, I think probably the same one that you encountered, and that's economics. Scotland would be leaving its largest market and a financial supporter. And the question is, could it really thrive on its own? There's questions about what kind of currency it might

use, what would happen to the nearly 100-mile border that divides Scotland with England. And over the weekend, I met a group of Scottish business people, and they were gathered in a yard overlooking a bay or a firth, as the Scots here call it. And I did this little poll. Is there anybody here who supports Scottish independence? No. Nobody. So what they said is they were worried that Scotland wouldn't be able to afford the services it now provides to people without financial support from the UK. They're worried that that's going to lead to higher taxes,

barriers to trade with the rest of the United Kingdom. And Robin McGecky, he manufactures scientific equipment and relies on parts made in England, and this is how he says he sees it. The idea of actually being an independent Scotland, to me, is really quite frightening. A lot of us are sitting here thinking, if there's an independent Scotland, will we stay here? We will certainly move our headquarters south. You know, we feel very Scottish, but we feel very sort of...

Well, British. I feel very British, but I feel that, you know, Scotland has been taken away from me. Frank, seven years ago, I had a hard time finding an economist who thought that an independent Scotland would be better off than a Scotland inside the UK. What are economists saying now, post-Brexit? It's still hard to find people like that, Ari. I met a guy named David Bell. He's an emeritus professor at the University of Stirling here. He's studied this issue for more than two decades. And he says Scotland could do it. But, you know, he also says

this. It would be difficult. One of the big issues, obviously, is that there isn't an obvious new source of income tax revenue. Now, back in 2014, people were arguing that an independent Scotland could rely on oil and gas revenue from the North Sea. But as Bell pointed out to me, and it's pretty obvious with climate change, the outlook for fossil fuels is totally different now. And, you know, coming back to the big picture, the UK is such a close ally of the United States. If Scotland were to break away, what would that mean to the United States? I think Washington is watching this very closely. The U.S. relies on political and military support from the United Kingdom. For instance, Britain's nuclear subs, they're based up here in Scotland.

They carry American-made missiles. Scottish National Party has said they're against any nuclear weapons here in independent Scotland, if it ever comes to that. So the question is, where would you put those missiles? And I was talking to Jamie Green. He's running for re-election in the Scottish Parliament with Johnson's Conservative Party. And he says, you know, even beyond the subs, the breakup of this country would weaken the West and help the UK and America's opponents. This is what he said. We were standing outside.

It was raining, as is often the case here in Edinburgh. Russia, China, the East, North Korea, Iran, these countries are desperate for our unions to fail. And I think people in Moscow are looking on in glee at the prospect of Scottish independence. You know, Prime Minister Boris Johnson opposes an independence referendum. So if the Scottish National Party wins, could he block it? I mean, he can try to dig his heels in, but they're going to push as hard as they possibly can. And if he blocks it, they'll try to take it to the courts. But at the same time, the argument that will be made here is, you know, these are the results of an election and you need to respect the will of the people.

NPR London correspondent Frank Langfitt. So by Thursday, we should know whether the Scottish National Party has a majority of seats in Scotland's parliament. But that still leaves time for a prediction. Let's begin with a really easy question. What's going to happen? Which way is this going to go? That's the hard question. Ailsa Henderson is a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Edinburgh and a polling expert. And she says, while it's hard to predict whether this vote will ultimately lead to another independence referendum, she does have a pretty good idea of how this week will shake out. We do know which party is going to be the largest party on Thursday, and it's likely to be the SNP, the Scottish National Party.

And that party has been ahead in the polls for months and months and months. So that part's not really all that interesting. What is interesting is what happens next. Will Scottish leaders and citizens push London to allow a vote on independence? And if another referendum happens, will Scots go a different way this time? I asked Henderson how the demographics on this question have changed in the last seven years. In 2014, women were less likely to support independence, and a lot of the polling done at the time suggested that's because they were more risk-averse. of independence. And both of those groups, women and younger voters, are even more supportive of independence if you frame it as an independent Scotland that is part of the EU. Because so much

of the support for Scottish independence is tied to membership in the European Union, how easy would it be for an independent Scotland to join the EU? There was debate before 2014 about whether an independent Scotland would be able to join the European Union. And that was from a very different situation. That was from within the European Union at the time. Right now, it's just, you know, we're out of the European Union, it would be a straightforward accession request, and there is no queue. And so we would just be looking to an independent Scotland to try to satisfy the basic requirements of EU membership. But there's debate about how easy that would be and what the economic consequences of independence would be in the interim as well.

Ultimately, what do you think is holding the UK together right now? I mean, some people would say inertia. I mean, that's a legitimate answer. I was wondering if it's just the way it's been. Yeah, I mean, I suppose that's a kind of glib answer, but I think the serious answer is there is a deep well of strong social solidarity within these islands. And particularly after the year that we have had, I mean, you see a deep reserve or a deep well of support for social solidarity, a belief that we should have equivalent access to social rights across the state. There is support for economic solidarity or a sharing of resources. It's stronger in principle than in practice, but it's still there. So whatever the conclusions people make about the constitutional direction of different parts of a state, there remains a strong sense of solidarity

across the United Kingdom. And that is playing into people's views about what should happen in the future. Ailsa Henderson, she's a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Edinburgh. You're listening to Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.