Consider This from NPR - Social Distancing Extended; Grocery Store Tips

Episode Date: March 30, 2020

Two weeks ago, President Trump told Americans to stay home for 15 days. On Sunday, he extended that guidance for another month, as the U.S. trails behind other countries on per-capita testing. NPR's Allison Aubrey reports on a new test expected this week that promises quicker results.Plus, tips on how to grocery shop safely.Sign up for 'The New Normal' newsletter Find and support your local public radio stationThis episode was recorded and published as part of this podcast's former 'Coronavirus Daily' format.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Over the weekend, Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, made a prediction that revealed just how much further we have to go in this coronavirus pandemic. You know, I would say between 100 and 200,000 cases, but I don't want to be held to that because it's, excuse me, deaths. I mean, we're going to have millions of cases, but I just don't think that we really need to make a projection. He's saying guessing is really hard, but it's possible the United States could see millions of cases and up to 200,000 people dead. As of this recording, the number of people who've died in the United States is close to 3,000. Today, what extended social distancing and added testing

might mean, also what you need to know about grocery shopping. This is Coronavirus Daily from NPR. I'm Kelly McEvers. It's Monday, March 30th. Last week, President Trump talked a lot about relaxing federal guidance that Americans should stay home from work and school. On Sunday, he instead extended that guidance until April 30th. Anthony Fauci on CNN this morning explained why. You know, interestingly, you know, we showed him the data. He looked at the data and he got it right away. It was a pretty clear picture that Dr. Debbie Burks and I went in together in the Oval Office and leaned over the desk and said, here are the data.

Take a look. He looked at them. He understood them. And he just shook his head and said, I guess we got to do it. And about that data, White House officials say they've been following a model of the pandemic that's similar to one from the University of Washington. And it predicts U.S. cases will peak on April 15th. On that day, it's projected that more than 2,200 people will die and almost a quarter of a million people will be hospitalized. In a lot of hospitals, the need is going to outstrip capacity, even if social distancing stays in place. And so the new White House guidance, encouraging people to stay home, is about buying time. Time to flatten the curve and diminish the rate of infection, and time to ramp up testing. Which brings us to yesterday, when it was sunny and warm in Washington, D.C.

Beautiful day in the Rose Garden. Tremendous distance between chairs. At an outdoor press briefing by the White House, President Trump repeated something he has also said indoors on multiple occasions. We've been doing more tests than any other country anywhere in the world. That is simply not true. As of Saturday, the United States had performed 894,000 tests. And if you do the math on the total U.S. population, one in 366 people. In Italy, the number of people who've been tested per capita is about three times that. And most per capita counts put the U.S.

behind South Korea, too. NPR science correspondent Alison Aubrey has been reporting on this and on the need for more testing. She talked to host Rachel Martin on Morning Edition. Yes, we're detecting more cases because we are testing more, but we're a big country, about 330 million people. So on a per capita basis, we have not done as much testing as countries that say South Korea or Italy. So there is this new test that could speed things up though, right? It's just been approved by the FDA. What can you tell us about it? So the new test can give results in about 10 to 15 minutes instead of days. The FDA granted emergency use authorization on Friday, right?

Big game changer. And the company behind it, Abbott, says the test will be rolled out this week. They say they can do about 50,000 tests per day. And some clinicians I spoke to say this is really important. I mean, think about it this way. Instead of having to send this off to a lab, the test is run right in the doctor's office on the same device that doctors use to do a strep test or a flu test. I spoke to Norman Moore. He's the director of infectious diseases and scientific affairs at Abbott. The idea that we can actually get results in under 15 minutes when it

used to take hours. And of course, there's a lot of reports saying days to weeks because of the backlog. This should be highly unique in fighting this virus. And another really important development here is that the CDC has just changed its guidelines so people can now swab themselves. So if you need a test, you can take the swab, stick it in your nose or your throat,

then give it to the physician or nurse. And this is significant because it could help prevent the spread to healthcare workers. The self-swabbing could also help preserve masks that are in short supply, since healthcare workers have to put on protective gear, the masks, every time they take a sample. So this could be helpful. What about experts outside the administration? Is there pretty much uniform agreement that extending the social distancing guidelines through April 30th, that that's a good idea? You know, many people I've spoken to say this does seem to make sense. We still haven't heard all the details about how the administration plans to ultimately lift the restrictions. But former FDA Commissioner Scott

Gottlieb says this is a prudent decision. He says it would have been way too early to lift the restrictions now. When I spoke to him yesterday, he used a baseball analogy. You know, we're still in the third inning of coronavirus spread throughout the country. But as you see the epidemic run its course, in a couple of weeks after you see some sustained reductions in the number of new cases, you might be in a position to start opening up businesses again. You need to do it gradually, and you need to do it with an eye towards implementing other steps

to try to mitigate risk and mitigate spread. So Gottlieb is giving a kind of May timeline. But, you know, a lot depends, Rachel, on people continuing to hunker down, doing their part, following the recommendations. He says we will be in a better situation when there are treatments and ultimately a vaccine. Yeah, what about a vaccine, Allison? Any more information on the latest timeline for when we might see one? So a vaccine is not likely for another 12 to 18 months at the earliest.

There's a lot of research underway, but scientists have to show efficacy, safety. On the treatment side, there is hope that by this summer, there may be something in place. There are antibody treatments being studied, antivirals. For one drug that's shown some promise from Desivir, early clinical trial data is expected by mid-April, so soonish. That was NPR science correspondent Alison Aubrey talking to Morning Edition host Rachel Martin. Some parts of the rural West are reporting very low numbers of COVID-19 cases. But there are pockets with high infection rates.

Namely, resort towns that are popular with tourists and wealthy people who have vacation homes. But these towns have small hospitals. NPR's Kirk Sigler reports that Sun Valley, Idaho is struggling to deal with its COVID-19 cases. In what would normally be the tail end of the busy spring break season, the streets of Ketchum and Sun Valley are mostly deserted. The slopes and chairlifts above town closed for weeks, and things have been a bit tense, says Justin Malloy, who lives here year-round. He's been telecommuting with his wife from their apartment. They only go out to walk the dog or

to get groceries once a week. You know, we've been seeing a lot of Washington plates, a lot of California plates, their cars just full of all of their stuff that they've brought from out of state. Photos also showing private jets continuing to land at the tiny airport recently fueled outrage on social media, with locals complaining that the uber-rich were fleeing cities to seek refuge in rural Idaho, unknowingly making the public health crisis here worse. Most of this for now is anecdotal.

Josh Kern is vice president of medical affairs for the local St. Luke's Wood River Medical Center. Yeah, it seems likely that people were fleeing other places and not recognizing that they were then bringing the disease with them from Seattle. But hospital officials say Blaine County and Sun Valley are seeing some of the highest rates of known COVID-19 cases in the entire U.S. And while resort towns like this can typically house a lot of tourists, that doesn't extend to the local hospital, which has just 25 beds. No one should come here. ER doctor Brent Russell should know he has COVID-19. He's been very sick, so he can't work here at a critical time. We have a really high percent of COVID spreading amongst the

population here. And if you come here, you know, that is putting your life at risk and then it's putting others' lives at risk. Dr. Russell figures he probably got infected in the ER, but he says he could have just as easily gotten it at the ski resort before it closed March 15th. You know, it seems like a low-risk activity because it's outdoors, but most everybody eats lunch in a crowded lodge. And then even more so are the chairlifts where you're sitting, you know, shoulder to shoulder with four people. Some of the West's first known COVID-19 cases came from ski resorts that draw visitors from around the world. Colorado's governor ordered that anyone who's traveled to four of his state's resort counties to self-quarantine for 14 days. This after the

chairman of the Mexican Stock Exchange was reported to have contracted the virus in Vail. Yale sociology professor Justin Farrell says secluded resort towns may not be the safe havens that uber-wealthy tend to think they are. You may be even more at risk with supplies if you are, you know, staying in your remote estate and the service industry that basically props up your way of life. If that is gone, it's much more difficult to survive out there than it would be if you could run to the supermarket in a larger city. Farrell isn't surprised by the local backlash. He says towns like Sun Valley have huge income inequality and rely heavily on a mostly lower-income Latino workforce. One certain is that the local economic

fallout will be huge, but Sun Valley ER Dr. Brent Russell says doing the right thing now, following the strict isolation orders, will save his community in the end. The overall impact on the economy, I suspect it would be much less than if we try to kind of keep the economy going right now and therefore exacerbate the problem. Russell, who's 50 and healthy and skied 80 days last season, has been in bed for more than a week. He'll start to feel better, and then there's a setback.

Trust me, he says, you don't want this. That was NPR's Kirk Sigler. And so, as we enter week three of social distancing, NPR's global health and development blog, Goats and Soda, has some grocery shopping advice. Do wash your hands before and after going to the store. Do shop at off-peak hours if you can. Do not touch your face while you are in the store and until you wash your hands. And it's not a bad idea to use a wipe on the shopping cart or the basket handle. Many stores now provide them. Or you can bring your own. All that said, Yale University epidemiologist Albert Koh says it helps to understand the different levels of risk in different situations. Coming into close contact with an infected person, even an asymptomatic one,

might be riskier than touching a shopping cart or a cereal box that might have been touched by an infected person hours or days earlier. The most important advice is the same as it ever was. Wash your hands often and stay six feet away from people. A link to the full article with advice that you can share from NPR's Laurel Wamsley and Maria Godoy is in our episode notes. For more on the coronavirus, you can stay up to date with all the news on your local public radio station and in our daily coronavirus newsletter. It's called The New Normal.

Sign up at npr.org slash newsletters. We will be back with more tomorrow. I'm Kelly McEvers. Thank you.