Consider This from NPR - The Headline Everyone Expected - Trump Wins Iowa Caucuses

Episode Date: January 16, 2024

Former President Donald Trump's victory in the Iowa caucuses this week surprised almost no one, but should news outlets have called the contest before some caucus goers, even had a chance to vote?That's one of the questions we explore in today's episode. NPR's Mary Louise Kelly looks ahead to what happens next in the race for the republican nomination with senior editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Hey, it's Aisha Harris from Pop Culture Happy Hour. If you love NPR podcasts, you'll want the new NPR Plus podcast bundle. Enjoy an all-you-can-eat selection of NPR Plus podcasts with sponsor-free listening and bonus episodes. Plus, you'll be supporting public radio. Check it out at plus.npr.org. CNN projects that Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucuses. That announcement from CNN's Jake Tapper surprised almost no one. The former president had been polling way ahead of other Republican candidates for months.

The timing, however, was surprising, as Tapper himself noted to his fellow CNN anchor Aaron Burnett. Aaron, not a surprise, but still, this is the earliest I can remember ever calling such a thing. Exactly. Both things are true. Not a surprise. And yet it is 8.30 Eastern. Those caucus doors opened 30 minutes ago. That's right. CNN declared victory for Trump well before many Iowans even had a chance to vote. And it wasn't just CNN. Former President Donald J. Trump will be the projected winner in the Iowa caucuses for the 2024 presidential election. Again, about 33 minutes after the doors closed in the Iowa caucuses with very few actual results. MSNBC,

the Associated Press, and Fox News also called the race before most votes had been cast, prompting confusion among Iowans and backlash from some Republicans and even some Democrats. News outlets have resisted the urge to call presidential races early since Ronald Reagan challenged Jimmy Carter back in 1980. You've seen the map. We've looked at the figures and NBC News now makes its projection for the presidency. Reagan is our projected winner. On the eve of Ronald Reagan's landslide victory over Jimmy Carter, NBC's John Chancellor called the election at 8.15 Eastern Time. Carter was already giving his concession speech while polls on the West Coast

were still open. So I can't stand here tonight and say it doesn't hurt. And while calling the race early didn't make a difference to Carter's chances, there were questions as to whether it depressed turnout on the West Coast where polls were still open, whether that could have made a difference in close congressional races there. That was a big deal. I mean, that made national headlines. It triggered congressional inquiry, investigation into it. You had all these folks from the networks being called upon to testify about it. David Fulkenflik covers the media for NPR. He says after that controversial call, the networks backed off projecting winners that early on a national level. But he finds echoes in how media outlets report on state elections. Their job is to,

you know, deliver the news, but also keep you watching. And that's that is attention. Those two imperatives are often very much at odds with each other. I think they're doing it because they can. And I think they're doing it because they can, and I think they're doing it because they know the other guy is likely to. He says media outlets today also use more effective, predictive methods. Instead of exit polls that get conducted during primary votes or general election votes, these are entrance votes where people going into the caucuses tell you who they intend to vote for, and they just knew that it was going to be a blowout for Trump. But Folkenflik says outlets do a disservice to themselves and

to voters by calling races before they're over. It does feel as though the moment right now, questions about trust in the media are intertwined with questions about the integrity of our voting system, mostly raised without foundation. But for the press to play into that seems to me a little bit of a cell phone. Consider this. While almost no one expected an upset in the Iowa caucuses, some were concerned by the early race call. Coming up, we look ahead to what comes next in the Republican-nominating contest and whether it's over before it's really gotten underway. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It's Tuesday, January 16th. It's Consider This from NPR. The Iowa caucuses have come and gone after all the campaigning.

After more than $120 million in ad spending in Iowa, the result was pretty much as everyone expected. Former President Donald Trump won in a landslide. This is a very special night, and this is the first because the big night is going to be in November when we take back our country. And truly, we do make our country great again. So what's it all mean? That is something I talked about with NPR senior editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Hey there, Domenico. Hey, Mary Louise.

The Associated Press made a swift call, made quite an early call last night, and the call was that Trump had an insurmountable lead. What stood out to you about last night? Well, surprises can happen in politics, and we should prepare ourselves for those, but this result was not one of them. I mean, I was surprised, though, at how quickly the race was called. I mean, just half an hour after voting began, AP and other networks were able to do that because of the overwhelming lead that Trump had in the entrance polls that were taken throughout the state. And then that matched some key precincts

and that's all that was really needed for them to have that kind of confidence level. In the end, it was Trump with more than 50% of the vote, exactly what polling had shown for months and months. And then in second place, admittedly a distant far behind Trump's second place, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. What does this mean for his campaign? Well, DeSantis eked out second place over Nikki Haley, the former Trump UN ambassador, and that means he's using that as a reason to keep going. You helped us get a ticket punched out of the Hawkeye State. We have a lot of work to do, but I can tell you this, as the next president of the United States, I am going to get the job done for this country. You know, this is only going to prolong a three-person race, which would only help Trump. You know, in all honesty, a path to the nomination for DeSantis looks all but closed off.

I mean, he finished 30 points behind Trump. That's more than double the largest margin of victory in Iowa caucus history. You know, DeSantis was trying to sell himself to conservatives of Trump without the baggage, Trump light. But at least in Iowa, Republican caucus goers said they preferred the original. And what about for Nikki Haley? Where does last night leave her? I mean, she missed a real opportunity to nudge DeSantis out of the race and make this really a two-person race. You know, polls have shown her trending up. The Super PAC supporting her opened the spigot in Iowa in the last couple of weeks, really trying to win there.

And she just missed finishing a couple points behind DeSantis. Here she was last night making the argument to voters that Trump and Biden are unpopular and that the country should try something new. The question before Americans is now very clear. Do you want more of the same? Or do you want a new generation of conservative leadership? You know, really, I think the question is whether Republican base voters will buy that message. She tried to frame this as a two person race going forward last night, but it's really hard to make that case when you finish third.

We'll stay with the race going forward because Nikki Haley spent a lot more time, she spent a lot more energy campaigning in New Hampshire than in Iowa. So what are you looking for ahead of the New Hampshire primary next week? Well, the stakes are certainly much higher now for Haley in New Hampshire. She may not need to win it to stay in, but she does have to come reasonably close, I think, and show that she can give Trump a real run for his money. I mean, remember, this is about as moderate a state as we're going to see in this nominating process. Independents can vote in New Hampshire, unlike in Iowa. Voters there are far less

religious, more moderate, more suburban. If she can't do well there, what's the rationale for her to stay in and who she appeals to? Who she appeals to, indeed. All right, well, send us out into the night. Let's close this chapter. Send us out with your final thought on Iowa. I mean, turnout really jumped out to me. I mean, it's just kind of bizarre. Only 110,000 Republicans went out to vote. That's 15% of the total number of registered Republicans in the state. Let's put this another way. Almost $124 million was spent in ads over the past year in Iowa to motivate 110,000 people to vote. I mean, that's $1,124 per voter. We're in a really weird situation where that few voters play such an

outsized role in the process. And Pierre's Domenico Montanaro. Thanks. You're welcome. This episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Alejandra Marquez-Hanse. It was edited by Catherine Fox and Courtney Dorning. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.