Consider This from NPR - The Long Awaited Brexit Deal Is Finally Here
Episode Date: December 31, 2020After four and a half tumultuous years in British politics, Brexit is now becoming a reality. NPR's London correspondent Frank Langfitt reports on mixed views about the new deal from a highway outside... the Port of Dover along the English Channel, where truckers are trying to cross the border before rules change in the new year. Anand Menon, director of the think tank UK In A Changing Europe, sees the new deal as a win, and says it help avoid further economic disruption. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
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Back in 2016, Boris Johnson was an easy target for political punchlines.
A man with both the look and the economic insight of Bam Bam from the Flintstones.
Attention-grabbing and entertaining with a wild blonde mop top and a necktie that was nearly always askew,
he astutely played the buffoon, at times for political gain.
He had been a popular mayor of London and served in Parliament. He was known for eccentric, sometimes offensive remarks. But it was his
support of a long-shot campaign to pull the United Kingdom out of the European Union that would help
change the course of British history. If we burst out of the shackles of Brussels,
we would be able to begin immediately with those long-neglected
free trade opportunities, which we can't do at the moment.
Brexit would have been a monumental split from the EU, and Johnson claimed a great opportunity.
We could strike free trade deals with America, with China, with the growth economies around
the world.
This political and economic union was designed to help keep peace in Europe
after two world wars. Now, British voters are known for their caution, and critics said Brexit
would be a huge gamble, fueled by xenophobia and a desire to pull up the drawbridge. So,
in the early hours of June 24th, 2016, when the BBC announced the results of the referendum, the world was stunned.
And that's the result of this referendum. The British people have spoken and the answer is,
we're out. Johnson and his fellow Brexiteers had no real plan on how to actually execute the
withdrawal, how to untangle decades of economic and legal integration with Europe.
And so a country that was known for effective, sometimes dull governance,
was plunged into years of political chaos that cost two prime ministers their jobs.
The British people have voted to leave the European Union.
Beginning with David Cameron, the man who called for the referendum,
even as he urged Brits to vote against it.
I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain
that steers our country to its next destination.
So Theresa May stepped up as Prime Minister,
and three years later, she was out too.
I will shortly leave the job that it has been the honour of my life to hold.
I do so with no ill will,
but with enormous and enduring gratitude.
And so here's where Boris Johnson re-enters the picture.
Now he's prime minister.
This year, Johnson finally engineered Britain's departure.
This week, he signed a new free trade deal with the EU.
And it takes effect as clocks on the continent
strike midnight New
Year's Eve. I think this deal means a new stability and a new certainty in what has
sometimes been a fractious and difficult relationship. Consider this. After four and
a half tumultuous years in British politics, Brexit is now becoming a reality.
From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro. It's Thursday, December 31st.
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from NPR. It's Consider This from NPR. Let's begin where the rubber of Brexit meets the road,
on a highway outside the port of Dover along the English Channel. That's where NPR's London
correspondent Frank Langfitt is right now. Frank, congratulations on reaching this momentous day
after the years that you've been covering this story. It's remarkable. I think people weren't
ever sure it would ever come. Well, here we are. Tell us exactly where you are, what it looks like,
and why you chose this place, what it tells us about Brexit. Yeah, so what I am is I'm on the
M20 heading towards the port of Dover, and right now their police, they're rerouting trucks down to an area.
They've actually taken up a whole stretch of highway
to test people for COVID, truckers for COVID-19.
And the reason for this, as you remember,
is a variant that's highly infectious
has been sort of sweeping through England.
France shut down the border.
And so what's happening right now, Ari,
is trucks are trying to get across the English Channel
before the rules change.
So those rules come into force with the new year.
Yeah.
How is that going to affect trade and transportation?
Well, in one sense, it's good because there was a trade deal done.
There won't be any new tariffs or quotas on most products going across.
That's a huge relief, particularly for car companies that want to get cars over
there. But there is going to be a lot more paperwork. And UK businesses, I think, are going
to face about $10 billion in extra costs. Government says that we should expect more
delays here for trucks. Now, I was talking to a guy that I know named Lorenzo Zacchio, Ari. He
runs a trucking company here around Dover. And he says the government's not giving clear guidance,
and he's worried about what
could happen to his trucks as they begin to move again across Europe. Things basically are much,
much, much worse because if you miss one document, it's a guaranteed impounding of the vehicle.
And do you regret voting for Brexit now? At this point, yes. They made us believe that this was
going to be better off. And actually, that could be the end
of my company. And what Lorenzo says is his trucks won't be able to pick up and move goods around
Europe. And he may put his trucks, a lot of them in Europe permanently. Part of an exodus of
businesses from Great Britain to the rest of Europe. Are you seeing other changes that have
already taken
place over the years that we've been talking about Brexit? After all, it's been a really
long time coming. You're exactly right, Ari. And so one thing is this new trade deal doesn't cover
services. So that's about 80% of the UK economy. It's a lot. So financial services have been
basically been sending thousands of jobs to Europe to be able to work there. The good news is it's
nowhere near as many as people thought. But you know, the cost and burden of paperwork that Lorenzo
was just talking about is going to hit small businesses really hard. Last year, I visited a
flower shop. It's run by a woman named Rosa Ashby. She buys flowers from Holland, and she says there's
been so much uncertainty around Brexit, she just decided to close her shop. We'd had our business for 22 years, and when we finally locked that door for the last time,
it was very traumatic and sad.
I still maintain Brexit should not happen.
I dread for the future in that way for many businesses.
You know, Frank, one of the issues that motivated so many Brexit voters was immigration.
People didn't want migrants coming from other parts of Europe to the UK.
And so how is immigration going to change with this deal?
Migration is going to change dramatically, Ari.
With the UK inside the EU, Britons can live and work visa-free on the continent and vice versa.
Now people coming here, a lot of them will have to get work visas. I spent some time in a city called Boston, which was the hardest core Brexit voting place in the country.
And there were a lot of complaints there about the flow of migrant workers basically taking up resources in schools, things like that.
And there's a guy that I talked to, Julian Thompson, up there.
He's hopeful that Brexit over time is going to reduce the numbers of migrants here.
Whilst it's been good for us, there's also a negative side as well.
There's quite a few coming over now without jobs and not enough jobs for them and not enough properties for them and overloading the system.
You know, and some immigrants here haven't felt welcome the last few years and have left.
A guy that I know, Samuel Marcora, he was a professor at the University of Kent.
He didn't feel comfortable, even though he'd spent like 20 years here.
And this year, he and his wife finally moved back to Italy.
I was forced out by my own discomfort of realizing after so many years that the main reason for voting out for many, many people was, you know, that they wanted to stop a movement of people like me.
Frank, so many powerful stories of individual upheaval.
What is the overall impact of this going to be on the UK economy going forward?
Well, it's not a much better prognosis, Ari.
The consensus among economists I've been talking to for years is it's going to do damage.
One estimate per capita GDP will grow more than 6% slower over the next decade.
The UK will be at least $160 billion poorer than it would have been if it stayed in the EU.
This is Jonathan Portis, an economics professor over at King's College in London.
Most economists think this is indeed a historic mistake.
And the model here is not economic collapse.
It's a slow puncture.
It's that the UK ends up looking a bit like Italy.
So that's a gloomy outlook.
Are there scenarios where Brexit looks like a better decision down the road than it does today?
I think there could.
I mean, remember, Brexit is really about the idea of national sovereignty.
It's not about economics.
And this is how Boris Johnson put it on Christmas Eve when he finally got that trade deal.
The British people voted to take back control of their money, their borders, their laws.
And of course, that's at an economic cost, Ari. Another potential scenario where Brexit looks a
little better is if politically the EU becomes even harder to manage, and the UK in the end is
glad that it got out when it did. NPR's Frank Langford. All right, from the edge of the English Channel, let's head now to Oxford,
where Anand Menon is director of UK in a Changing Europe,
a think tank with a focus on Brexit. Welcome.
Thank you for having me.
Well, on a scale from solid wind to utter disaster, where would you put this deal?
Oh, very much towards the wind side, because by the time we reached sort of Christmas,
and of course the deal was finally done on Christmas Eve, we had a binary choice,
which was between deal and no deal.
No deal would have been significantly more disruptive, significantly more costly.
And I think, as importantly, a no deal outcome would have set the UK and its European partners
at loggerheads, as each side blamed the other for the collapse of the talks.
And that would have gone in the way of cooperation on security, on climate, on all kinds of things
for weeks, if not months. So compared to that outcome, a deal is a win. From the American
perspective, Britain's role as a global leader has been crucial. I mean, the UK has a permanent
seat on the UN Security Council. It's a powerful force in NATO. How do you see that changing after this
Brexit deal? I mean, what I'd say is the one bit you miss there is that the UK has also been useful
to the US as a friend inside the European Union. That is to say, an Atlanticist, liberal, free
trading state that could shape EU decisions and make the case for Atlanticism and free trade at
the heart of the European Union. I think the US will miss that. I suspect the UK will make efforts to be an even more activist
foreign policy player, because the government is keen to ram home that message. We might have
turned our back on European Union membership, but we haven't turned our back on the world
or on our responsibilities as a key defender of the liberal international order.
I'm curious, as a person who has devoted your professional life to following this saga over the years,
can you just tell us how you personally feel now that this deal has finally happened?
I found every step of the journey very, very interesting
because so many weird and wonderful things have happened in British politics.
Wonderful, broadly defined.
From the perspective of a political scientist,
you could not hope to live through a more interesting time to study the politics of
your country. The other thing for me that is fascinating, though, is that for many people
who supported Brexit, leaving the European Union wasn't an end in itself. It was a means to an end.
That is to say, if we leave the European Union, then we can dot, dot, dot, you fill in that blank
as you want, become a more activist international player, deregulate in a way the European Union would never let us. So actually,
the real test of Brexit in many ways is yet to come, which is now you've got that freedom.
What the hell are you going to do with it? And how are you going to make people's lives better
because of it, despite the fact that you're in charge of an economy that is growing less fast than
it would have done had we not left in the first place.
Anand Menon, he is the director of the think tank UK in a Changing Europe.
You're listening to Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.