Consider This from NPR - The Mask Debate; Preventing More New York-Sized Clusters

Episode Date: April 1, 2020

Officials on the White House coronavirus task force have a goal: to limit the number of U.S. deaths from COVID-19 to 100,000 people. But they say preventing more clusters the size of New York and New Jersey is key. And with conflicting opinions about who should be wearing masks, NPR's Allison Aubrey reports new guidance may be coming soon.Plus, what a 1995 heat wave can teach us about fighting today's pandemic — and the scientific debate over what could be early symptoms of COVID-19 — a loss of taste and smell.Links:Short Wave's episode, 'Is This Real? Loss of Smell And The Coronavirus' on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and NPR One.Find and support your local public radio stationSign up for 'The New Normal' newsletter This episode was recorded and published as part of this podcast's former 'Coronavirus Daily' format.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

At the White House yesterday, members of the Coronavirus Task Force showed a chart with what they called goals of community mitigation. Really highlighting that this begins in the middle and the end with community. Community mitigation, meaning many more weeks of social distancing all across the country. If we do that, officials said, the goal is achievable. But that goal is to keep the number of people who are going to die in this country to 100,000. Dr. Fauci, should Americans be prepared for the likelihood that there will be 100,000 Americans who die from this virus? The answer is yes. We need, as sobering a number as that is, we should be prepared for it.

If you want to compare that to something, remember, just under 60,000 American soldiers died in the Vietnam War. Is it going to be that much? I hope not. And I think the more we push on the mitigation, the less likelihood it would be that number. And 100,000 people dead is if the goal is met. If it isn't, that number could be even higher. Coming up, what else officials predicted, and whether we should all be wearing masks when we go outside. Plus, what a 1995 heat wave can tell us about how to help each other in this pandemic. This is Coronavirus Daily from NPR. I'm Kelly McEvers. It's Wednesday, April 1st. Thank you, Mr. President. If I can have the first slide, please.

Okay, so at yesterday's White House briefing, Dr. Deborah Birx talked about another chart. Next slide, please. This one showed the number of COVID-19 cases in each of the 50 states. But I think it shows in stark reality the difference between New York and New Jersey and other states with similar populations and urban areas. Each state had its own line. And on this chart, the line for each state gradually slopes up as it moves through time. But New York and New Jersey's lines shoot up much higher and much faster.

Many of the cases in those states happened before social distancing. And Burke says the high concentrations of cases in those states could be skewing the data. That's based and heavily laden by the data that has come in from New York and New Jersey and Connecticut. What she means is it's possible that if states implemented social distancing before they had such high concentrations, the model might play out differently over time. Predictions, she said, are only based on the data you have. One extra thing, getting back to that, that's really an important slide that Dr. Burke showed. Dr. Anthony Fauci jumped in to agree.

The cluster that are not New York and not New Jersey, if we can suppress that from any kind of a spike, the numbers could be significantly lower than what we're talking about. Social distancing, even before communities see widespread cases, Fauci said, is critical. And it has to continue even when we start to see the number of people dying go down. So what we're going to see, and that's we've got to brace ourselves, in the next several days to a week or so, we're going to continue to see things go up. We cannot be discouraged by that because the mitigation is actually working and will work. The slide that Dr. Berg showed, where you saw New York and New Jersey and then the cluster of other...

There is new thinking about face masks. Right now, the CDC says only people who need face masks should wear them. People who are sick or people who are taking care of someone who's sick. But that advice seems at least partly informed by ongoing shortages. Like if regular people wear masks, there won't be enough masks for health care workers. Now, some public health experts argue we should all wear face masks when we need to go out in public. And as NPR's Alison Aubrey reports, the CDC is reconsidering its recommendation. A few months ago, it may have looked silly to wear a face mask to the grocery store, but no longer. Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb says if everyone wore a face mask when they go out, it could help slow the spread. Masks have long been demonstrated to be helpful in the setting of infectious disease.

He says face masks are used widely by members of the public in some places that are thought to have successfully managed their outbreaks, including South Korea and Hong Kong. Of course, it is important to keep up the social distancing, hand washing, and sanitizing surfaces. But Gottlieb says masks can offer an additional layer of protection. If you're a person who has the coronavirus and you're mildly symptomatic or you're asymptomatic and don't even know that you have symptoms at all, and you have a mask on, you're going to be far less likely to transmit the infection. The head of the Chinese CDC is on record saying that he thinks the U.S. is making a mistake by not promoting the wider use of masks for the public. And the Trump administration says it is reviewing the current policy, which for now says the only people who

need to wear a mask are those who are sick or taking care of someone who is. Jahan Fahimi is the medical director for the emergency department at UCSF. He says there are good arguments to be made to broaden the use of masks. It absolutely makes sense. If you really are talking about minimizing the mechanism by which this virus spreads, masking does seem to make sense. The challenge is, do we have enough masks? There's no question that supplies are limited and there are many reports of shortages. So people have started making their own masks. And last night, when President Trump was asked about the mask policy, he said people could consider using a scarf to

cover their faces. I mean, most people have scarves, and scarves are very good, and they can use a scarf. And we're only talking about a limited period of time. It's not clear how much protection a scarf may offer. Scott Gottlieb says he agrees that medical masks are needed in hospitals and health care settings. So you really don't want to pull any kind of medical masks out of the system. But as an alternative, CDC can issue guidelines on advising people

on how to construct their own cotton masks. Those cotton masks should provide a reasonable degree of protection from people being able to transmit the virus. Deborah Burks of the White House Coronavirus Task Force says they are reviewing the mask policy. And PR Science correspondent Alison Aubrey. In the summer of 1995, a heat wave hit Chicago. It was so hot, it warped train rails.

Hospitals were packed, there weren't enough emergency workers, and part of the power grid failed. In the end, more than 700 people died, many of them older people who died alone. And the one thing that did save some lives was whether or not people had social connections. And that could be a good lesson for us now, says sociologist and NYU professor Eric Kleinenberg. He studied that heat wave, and he talked about it with All Things Considered host Elsa Chang. Well, people getting sick in a heat wave typically fail to recognize that their body is breaking down. And so the thing that really saves you

is if someone recognizes your symptoms and says, you know, you need to cool down with some water or we need to get you some air conditioning. And so actually saving someone in a heat wave is very simple, but it requires social contact. So there's a similar profile of vulnerability. We really have to be concerned about older people, about people with underlying health conditions. And, you know, to be honest, I'm a little concerned about the language of social distancing that we've been hearing from public health officials and government, because really what we need is physical distancing. Let's keep apart the social solidarity. We need social solidarity more than

ever because there are people who are at risk who are going to need a helping hand if they're going to get through that. That can be a knock on the door, maybe a delivery of some food or medications, you know, help making sure a person who is in need gets the care that could keep them alive. And so I think the wrong message is protect yourself, turn your back on the rest of the world and wait for this to end. The right message is, you know, stay at home, reach out to people in need. Well, let's talk about that. I mean, there is something that happens to a community when there's forced isolation, you know, before and during these various lockdowns we're seeing

in various cities. We have been witnessing people hoarding food, hoarding medical supplies, toilet paper, basically acting for themselves and not for the greater good. Is there something that you as a sociologist can put your finger on that makes people flip a switch and act selfishly rather than come together and think of the greater good? When you don't believe that the government is telling you the truth, when you don't believe that there's a public and shared system that will provide you the care and support that you need, the message becomes, take care of yourself, protect yourself and your family, because that's the only way you're going to get through it. And if we can somehow reach for the better version of ourselves, to check in on one another, to volunteer the way that people in the medical professions are just going to hotspots to help, or the way that people who can are still delivering food. If we can muster up that better part of ourselves, we have a chance to turn it around and to build something incredible when this is over. I am so glad that you're saying this,

because, you know, another thing I've been curious about during this social distancing is, you know, personally, I've been hearing from people I haven't heard from in years, it seems like, in some ways, we are actually reaching out to each other more during this socially distanced time compared to the time when we had all the freedom in the world to connect. So I'm curious, do you think this experience might actually leave our social networks stronger in some ways when all this passes? Well, I think a lot depends on what happens here in the next week or two. If we can flatten the curve, if we can stay at home,

if we can prevent this from being as deadly as it might be, that will be a real collective accomplishment. Sociologist Eric Kleinenberg talking to NPR host Elsa Chang. Right now, public health officials are trying to sort out how many people actually have COVID-19 but don't have any symptoms. The data suggests it's at least 25%, and some say it could be as high as 50%. There is one symptom you might have heard about, and that is the loss of taste or smell.

This was first brought to our attention by a group called ENT-UK, representing ear, nose, and throat surgeons who noticed it in some patients. And even though the connection is not proven, they and other doctors put out statements last month saying, hey, there might be something going on here. Right, so I got a lot of, quote, everything tastes like cardboard and I can't smell anything. I got a lot of those sort of descriptor terms. That's Rachel Kay at Rutgers University talking to NPR's Daily Science podcast, Shortwave. She's a member of a group representing ear, nose and throat doctors in the U.S. that has requested that the loss of taste and smell be added to the official list of screening tools for the coronavirus.

The group is working toward a peer-reviewed study. In the meantime, if you have suddenly lost your sense of smell or taste, the best thing to do is to talk to your doctor or do not automatically assume you have COVID-19. We've got a link to the full shortwave episode on the debate about this and how some traditional scientific processes are being bypassed during the pandemic in the episode notes. For more news on the coronavirus, listen to your local public radio station. I'm Kelly McEvers. Thanks for listening. We will be back with more tomorrow. Thank you.