Consider This from NPR - The U.S. election results will reverberate around the world

Episode Date: June 20, 2024

Polls – and NPR's own reporting – tell a story of many Americans fatigued by the upcoming presidential race. They're not satisfied with the choice between two men who have both already held the office of President. But American allies and partners are watching the race intently, including South Korea, Japan, Ukraine and Israel. The fates of those countries are closely tied to whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden ends up sitting in the White House next year.The NPR correspondents who cover those countries, Anthony Kuhn in South Korea, Joanna Kakissis in Ukraine, and Daniel Estrin in Israel, discuss the stakes each of those countries have in the outcome of America's presidential election.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

U.S. election years are a whirlwind. Now the United States is being overrun by the Biden migrant crime. I'm proud of my administration for taking on Big Pharma. We will immediately tackle inflation. We witness a full-on assault on reproductive freedom. And understand who is to blame. Former President Donald Trump did this. Immigration, health care, inflation, reproductive rights, international diplomacy.

All of these issues are top of mind for American voters this year, as President Biden and former President Trump campaigned for the White House. But the stakes are just as high for American allies and close partners around the world. As Russia's military assault of Ukraine is underway, we have breaking news out of Israel this morning where Hamas has launched a surprise attack. North Korea test-fired a long-range ballistic missile with the potential to hit the U.S. For people in Ukraine, where the country's military is trying to fight off Russia, the question of who will win in the U.S. election in November is an existential one. We've taken three major steps at the G7 that collectively show Putin we cannot, he cannot wait us out. He cannot divide us. And we'll be with Ukraine until they prevail in this war. Or take Israel, another country embroiled in war, where people are watching closely to see who will be the next occupant of the Oval Office. If any Jewish person voted for Joe Biden, they should be ashamed of themselves.

He's totally abandoned Israel. Or take Asia, where U.S. allies and partners wonder how the election in November will impact their economies and their national security. Consider this. Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election could mean serious changes for Americans and also for those around the world who depend on U.S. support. After the break, we'll hear from NPR correspondents in Israel, Ukraine, and South Korea about how their regions are thinking about another four years of Biden or Trump. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.

It's Consider This from NPR. Polls and NPR's own reporting tell a story of many Americans fatigued by our upcoming presidential election, not satisfied with the choice between two men who have both already held the office of president. But American allies and partners are watching the race intently. Take South Korea, Japan, Ukraine, Israel. The fates of those countries are closely tied to whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden ends up sitting in the White House next year. So we have gathered the NPR correspondents who cover those countries to walk us through how they view the stakes of the U.S. election. Joanna Kakisis in Ukraine, Daniel Estrin in Israel, and Anthony Kuhn, who covers both South Korea and Japan from his base in Seoul.

Welcome to all three of you. Thank you, Mary Louise. Thank you. Hi, Mary Louise. All right, I'm going to start in Seoul. Welcome to all three of you. Thank you, Mary Louise. Thank you. Hi, Mary Louise. All right. I'm going to start in Asia since you're well ahead of us in the time zone clock, Anthony. I want to talk through with all of you how a lot of anxiety centers on U.S. financial support and how that may come into play depending on who wins this next presidential election. How does it look from where you sit? Well, Donald Trump has described the U.S.'s top allies in Asia, Japan and South

Korea, basically as wealthy freeloaders. And he said that if they don't pay more for the U.S. to defend them, the U.S. could bring home some of the roughly 78,000 troops based in those two countries. Now, critics point out that U.S. troops are not there just to defend allies. They're also there to defend U.S. interests and maintain U.S. primacy in Asia. But critics say that Trump is more interested in the balance of payments than the balance of power in Asia. For example, in 2019, Trump demanded a 500% increase in South Korea's contribution. 500%? Yes.

Okay. And that made some South Koreans feel like he was shaking them down for protection money. Joanna, hop in here. When you hear Anthony talking about Trump throwing around the term wealthy freeloaders, how does that resonate for you sitting in Kyiv, which, of course, is very dependent on the U.S. and its NATO allies for support right now, both military and financial, and where Trump has also threatened NATO allies saying, you need to pay more, you need to up your contributions. Yeah, that's right. I mean, for Ukraine, this election is actually existential. Everyone asks us what's going to happen. And this sort of lack of clarity on Trump's position to some extent, and like the future is making everybody really nervous. At least with Biden's team, they say, well, this is an administration

that's been with us through the worst of it. And Donald Trump has made some pretty strong statements. He has threatened to cut off future support for Ukraine. And he called President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, the greatest salesman. And he didn't mean it. The greatest salesman. He did not mean it as a compliment. Zelensky is maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that's ever lived. Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion.

I think President Zelensky would love if that were true, if every time he visited the U.S. he walked away with $60 billion. Daniel Astrin, jump in here from Israel, also, of course, grappling with its own war and trying to figure out what a Trump or a second Biden presidency would look like. I mean, just this week, Netanyahu infuriated the White House. He put out this video accusing the U.S. of holding up weapons and ammunition to Israel, just really making it clear that Netanyahu is publicly standing up to Biden. I said it's inconceivable that in the past few months, the administration has been withholding weapons and ammunitions to Israel.

I think it is clear in the background, Mary Louise, that Netanyahu and his circle of advisors much prefer Trump in the White House to Biden. Netanyahu's advisors will walk in the hallways and say things to each other like, well, it's just half a year to go. And then the Biden administration's pressure on Israel will go away. And that pressure is very much on Israel's conduct in the Gaza war. So analysts see here that Netanyahu is perhaps trying to buy time with the war, hoping that Trump wins the election and hoping that eventually that means that Israel will get this pressure from the Biden administration off its back. Anthony Kuhn, what about in South Korea? What

about in Japan? Do you hear political leaders there either publicly or kind of under their breath expressing support for one candidate or the other in the American elections? with Washington will remain ironclad. But if you talk to people here, you know that they have serious concerns about abandonment. And this goes not just for South Korea and Japan, but also allies such as the Philippines and partners such as Taiwan. And they fear they could be abandoned for several reasons. Joanna, speak to that in Ukraine. What kind of comments are you hearing from Zelensky, from his team in terms of either saying out loud or saying under their breaths what they may be doing to prepare for a possible change of administration? Zelensky is very much a person who says, come see what we're experiencing here, and I believe that you will change your mind if you have any reservations. And there are teams. President Zelensky's government is reaching out privately to Trump's team. So these efforts at

diplomacy are being sped up as the election gets closer and closer. And then this is a jump ball question for any of the three of you, we've obviously been focusing these last several minutes on how elected leaders in your patch of the world view the American elections. What about just ordinary people? How closely are they tracking this, given everything else going on actually in their daily lives and plenty of politics at home to watch. It's not on the front pages of the newspaper here, that's for sure. I mean, Israelis are preoccupied with so much right now, the Gaza war, a potential Lebanon war. Polls do show that more Israelis would want to see Trump in the White House than Biden. I think there is one thing, though, that Israelis fear, and it's that the U.S. won't give its full backing at this very precarious time for Israel's security. And really, whoever is in the White House, there's a hope that they can help Israel reach a resolution

to this mess. Yeah, I was just going to add that a lot of people here in South Korea, I think, think back to the Trump administration as a time of very high tension. People call it the days of fire and fury, when there was a sort of nuclear brinksmanship between then President Trump and Kim Jong-un, and people really felt insecure. And I think in people's memories, that was a very tense time. And Joanna, last word. Well, Mary Louise, it's really amazing how closely people are following this. People all know who Mike Johnson is. They all know who the key players

in Congress are. And we were just in Western Ukraine on the border with Romania, you know, very kind of an impoverished part of the country. And everyone there was asking me about it as well. Well, who do you think Trump would select as a Secretary of State? And I was like, wow, you all are really interested in this. But it's understandable considering how much of a role the U.S. plays in Ukraine's fate. That is NPR's Joanna Kakisis in Kiev, Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv, and Anthony Kuhn in Seoul. Thanks to all three of you. Thank you, Mary Louise. You're welcome. This episode was produced by Erica Ryan and Matt Ozug with audio engineering by Carly Strange, Ted Meebane, and Philip Edfors. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Vincent Nee.

Our executive producer is Sammy Yinnigan. Thanks to Consider This Plus listeners who support the work of NPR journalists and help keep public radio strong. Supporters also hear every episode without messages from sponsors. You can learn more at plus.npr.org. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.