Consider This from NPR - Two assassinations of major leaders could change the Middle East

Episode Date: July 31, 2024

In the Middle East, two assassinations in less than 24 hours could transform the region. Israel claimed responsibility for one. It has no comment on the other. First, an Israeli attack in Lebanon killed a leader of the militant group Hezbollah. Just hours later, the political leader of Hamas was killed in Iran. The Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was attending the swearing-in for Iran's new reformist president. Hamas says Haniyeh was killed by a rocket fired into his room at an official residency. Hamas and Iran both blame Israel for the attack.When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke after the two killings, he did not claim responsibility for the attack in Tehran. He did describe the Israeli strike in Beirut as a crushing blow. In Washington, White House spokesman John Kirby expressed concern the assassinations could result in an escalation of the conflicts already playing out.Two assassinations in the Middle East have the potential to start a violent chain of retaliations. Will they?For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

In the Middle East, two assassinations in less than 24 hours could transform the region. Israel claimed responsibility for one. It has no comment on the other. First, an Israeli attack in Lebanon killed the leader of the militant group Hezbollah. Just hours later, the political leader of Hamas was killed in Iran. The Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was attending the swearing-in for Iran's new reformist president. At the ceremony in Tehran, lawmakers in the conservative parliament broke into chants of death to America, death to Israel. Hamas says Haniyeh was killed by a rocket fired into his room at an official residency.

Hamas and Iran both blame Israel for the attack. When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke after the two killings, he did not claim responsibility for the attack in Tehran. He did describe the Israeli strike in Beirut as a crushing blow. If it is Israel that was behind this, then within the span of 12 hours, they have targeted both Hezbollah, Hamas, and Iran at the same time. Trita Parsi is executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a U.S.-based think tank focused on foreign policy.

It's very difficult to see that as something that is not designed to escalate the situation further. We know that from the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel back in April, the Israelis wanted to go much further. But it was the Biden administration that restrained Israel and made sure that it absorbed the blows that Iran gave it in retaliation. In Washington, White House spokesman John Kirby expressed the fears that many people around the world are feeling. These reports over the last 24, 48 hours certainly don't help with the temperature going down. I'm not going to be Pollyannish about it. We're obviously concerned about escalation. Consider this. Two assassinations in the Middle East have the potential to start a violent chain of retaliations. From NPR, I'm Ari Shapiro. Thank you. Iran, which backs both groups. As we record this on Wednesday afternoon, there are reports that

Iran's supreme leader has ordered a direct strike on Israel in retaliation. To explain what this means, I'm joined by two NPR correspondents in the Mideast. Jane Araf is in Beirut and Hadil Al-Shulchi is in Tel Aviv. Good to have you both here. Hello. Thank you, Ari. Jane, why are Hamas and Iran blaming Israel for Hania's assassination, and what are they threatening to do in response? Well, Ari, Israel hasn't claimed responsibility, but it doesn't always when it comes to attacks on Iran. Other countries believe Israel was responsible because, honestly, there are really no other countries that would have both the means and the motive to carry out a killing like this.

Iran says it will provide details when it has them, but those released so far point to a particularly brazen attack. The Hamas official, Ismail Haniyeh, was a guest of the Iranian regime, there to attend the president's inauguration and under their protection. Haniyeh was killed just a few hours after Israel assassinated the second most senior Hezbollah official, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut. Iran has made clear that it doesn't want to be drawn into a war directly with Israel, but it said after Hania's killing, revenge is our duty. Hadil, you're in Tel Aviv right now. How is Israel responding to these threats? So actually, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a speech on Israeli television today, and he didn't directly mention the killing of Haniyeh, but he did quote, say, intense days are ahead of us. And this is in

line with what Jane just mentioned. You know, Israel doesn't normally comment when it comes to attacks on Iran. Otherwise, we really just haven't heard anything official. You know, when my colleague Daniel Estrin here in Tel Aviv asked the Israeli military for a statement, they flat out said, no comment. And that's what it's been like, like all day. One thing we do know is that the Israeli foreign minister, Israel Katz, sent a letter to some foreign ministers around the world saying that Israel is not interested in an all-out war, but the only way to prevent a war is to have a full cessation of hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border. Jane, there's so much going on here. I mean, for one thing, it sounds like everybody is saying they don't want war even as they inch

closer to war. What are the potential consequences here? Oh gosh, so many. And that's an indication of how closely regional politics and security are interconnected. In Iran, the Stash's hopes that the new president would be able to carry out reforms, including better relations with the West and more freedoms in Iran. And more immediately, even if Iran doesn't retaliate directly, it could very well do it through its powerful proxy groups in the region. Here in Lebanon, Hezbollah will have to respond in a major way to the Israeli attack in Beirut. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will give a speech during Shukr's funeral tomorrow.

And Lebanon is terrified that this could all drag it into a war that would destroy it. And then there are the Gaza ceasefire negotiations. So really, that's just the short list. And Hadil, to those ceasefire negotiations, is that a casualty of this? Do these apparent assassinations mean a ceasefire is off the table? I mean, Haniyeh's killing is kind of leaving everyone a little nervous about the fate of the talks. You were sort of all waiting to see what Hamas decides to do. You know, maybe they'll possibly halt the talks for a time while they regroup.

So, Hania was actually one of the players in the talks and tried to push for a ceasefire, but he didn't actually have that much influence, even though, you know, he was technically Hamas's political chief. The person really calling the shots has always been Hamas's Gaza leader, Yahya Sanwar. Today, Hamas's deputy chairman in Gaza,

Khalil al-Hayyeh, said that Hamas's goals in the negotiations were unchanged, but he blamed Netanyahu for obstructing the deal. And, you know, one group of people who's really watching this very closely is the families of the hostages. You know, today they said that, sure, while military operations have achieved gains, they want to see Netanyahu accept Biden's deal, you know, so they could see their loved ones come back home. I know Israel has said that it is prepared for a wider war. Jane, are Iran and its proxies ready for something like that, if that's the way this goes? Well, Ari, everyone says they're ready for war, even though they also say they don't want it. Hezbollah in Lebanon has gone out of its way to show Israel that it's a much,

much stronger force than Hezbollah of previous wars, much better armed and able to strike Israeli cities. Iran has made it clear that it supports Hamas in Gaza, but also doesn't want to go to war for them. And Iranian proxies in Iraq have pretty much gotten what they want, an agreement in the making that will end the U.S.-led multinational military force in Iraq. So the worry is really that this cycle of retaliation could spiral out of control. And on so many different fronts. But just to zoom into the war in Gaza to end Hadil, this war has been going on for almost 10 months already and claimed more than 39,000 Palestinian lives, according to Gaza health officials. How might the death of Haniyeh affect life in Gaza and that war? Really, it just doesn't look like it's going to calm down there. You know, while everyone's attention has been on Lebanon and Iran in the past couple of days, Israeli military airstrikes and ground raids are still going on in Gaza. Just today,

health officials said that more than 50 people have been killed in Israeli military attacks. And the United Nations said that tens of thousands of Palestinians are experiencing new waves of displacement because of Israeli military evacuation orders. And today, the Qatari-based news channel Al Jazeera reported that two of its well-known journalists were killed in a strike while reporting in Hania's former Gaza neighborhood. But the Israeli military hasn't commented on those deaths yet. That's NPR's Hadil Al-Shalchi in Tel Aviv and Jane Araf in Beirut. Thank you both. Thank you, Ari. You're welcome.

This episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Catherine Fink. It was edited by Courtney Dorning, Sarah Handel, and James Heider. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And one more thing before we go, you can now enjoy the Consider This newsletter. We still help you break down a major story of the day, but you'll also get to know our producers and hosts and some moments of joy from the All Things Considered team.

You can sign up at npr.org slash consider this newsletter. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro.