Consider This from NPR - Vice presidents can make or break a candidate. Here's how Trump is choosing

Episode Date: June 18, 2024

We are just weeks away from one of the biggest political events of the election campaign season: the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Former President Donald Trump is, of course, the party's presumptive nominee, but he's yet to announce his running mate.The list is long, but the candidates all have one thing in common — they're being considered because they could help Trump get elected in November. NPR's Franco Ordoñez and Jeongyoon Han break down which candidates are rising to the top and why it matters. For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

I mean, I know who it's going to be. Give us a hint. I'll give you, we'll do another show sometime. That's Donald Trump dropping hints about his running mate to Fox News back in January. The former president has been dropping hints for months. Vice presidential candidates are usually chosen to shake up the race or give the nominee a strategic advantage. NPR senior correspondent and editor Ron Elving would tell you a VP pick does not have to be a superstar or a political genius. Ideally, the goal is to find someone who helps you actually

win the presidency. But as a practical matter, probably the goal is to first do no harm. Do no harm. Nevertheless, some candidates have made bold choices in an effort to court specific voters like women. My fellow citizens, I proudly accept your nomination for vice president of the United States. Geraldine Ferraro made history as the first woman to be nominated to a major party ticket by Democratic presidential nominee Walter Mondale back in his 1984 run against Ronald Reagan. Here again, Ron Elving. It actually appeared that that might make a substantial difference. Now, as it turned out, that was a landslide election. Ronald Reagan won 49 states, but it wasn't Geraldine Ferraro's fault that he won 49

states. So that was absolutely revolutionary, but did not necessarily have its desired effect in the sense of winning the election. Then, of course, we saw something similar on the Republican side in 2008 when the nominee was John McCain, and he surprised a lot of people by choosing. My friends and fellow Americans, I am very pleased and very privileged to introduce to you the next vice president of the United States, Governor Sarah Palin of the great state of Alaska. Now, then-Governor Palin was not a household name when John McCain picked her, but the self-described hockey mom's speech at the 2008 Republican Convention fired up McCain's campaign.

She began attracting huge crowds and helped McCain gain popularity with white women. For a while, she was really, you would have to say, the leading figure of that particular campaign. But it kind of turned against them. In the end, she didn't change the dynamic of that election, and Barack Obama was elected rather easily. There's always the safe choice for Veep. Take George W. Bush choosing Dick Cheney in 2000. I believe you're looking at the next vice president of the United States. He had the gravitas and the respect in Washington that at that time the younger George W. Bush did not have. He certainly impressed people in Washington when he chose Dick Cheney. So when it comes to Trump picking his running mate for 2024, Elving says it comes down to two things, creating unity in the GOP and again,

do no harm. Trump doesn't need any more controversy. He doesn't need anybody who carries any baggage of his own or her own. He doesn't need to have a big fight in the party over whether or not this was the best choice. Consider this. Vice presidential candidates rarely make a decisive difference in elections, but they can influence whether a nominee wins or loses. Who will Donald Trump pick as his running mate? Coming up, NPR's Jin Yoon Han and Franco Ordonez take a closer look at the top contenders for Trump's VP. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It's Consider This from NPR.

We are just weeks away from one of the biggest political events of the election campaign season. That would be the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Former President Trump is, of course, the party's presumptive nominee. He has yet to announce his running mate. In a recent interview with Fox News, he skirted the question of who that will be yet again. I have sort of a pretty good idea. Look, we have some really talented people. I have a pretty good idea,

but I think it's probably I'll do it the way it's usually done. NPR's Franco Ordonez and Jung Yoon Han are here with me now to break down which candidates may be rising to the top and why it matters. Welcome to you both. Hi, Marilu. Hi. Hi.

Okay, Jun-Yun, you kick us off. I have to say this already feels like the longest VP search in history. Where do things stand right now? Yeah, I mean, it really has. Trump has been the party's presumptive nominee for months now, which is why speculation has only been mounting. Trump said early on that there were as many as 15 candidates in the mix, but that list is whittling down fast. He recently asked for the

financial records of eight people, which is a sign that he's vetting these candidates. Meanwhile, Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Doug Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, are some of the names that have risen to the top. We're also watching South Carolina Senator Tim Scott and New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik closely. These are all loyal Trump allies who have made an effort to support him without stealing the spotlight from him. So they've put the ball in Trump's court, and he's in crunch time as he makes a final decision. And Franco, jump in here. There have been moments, I will confess, that have reminded me recently of Trump's reality show days. I wonder if you're sharing this experience and how that translates to the VP pick process. Yeah, it really is like his old show, The Apprentice. I mean, this is Trump's MO. I mean, he's a showman. It's a way

for him to generate headlines, to control the narrative. And he's inviting the speculation. You know, he's talking about it on the campaign trail and stoking it for fundraising. I mean, really, from early on, there's been little doubt about Trump being the nominee. So the focus kind of naturally turned to the VP candidates race. It's the only drama on the Republican side. Exactly. You know, and for him to draw this out, it really allows him more opportunities to see how, you know, they deal with the media scrutiny. You know, he likes people who are good on TV, who do well on TV, and he gets to see how they talk about him. Junyun, more specifics on what we think Trump might be looking for this time. Well, I mean, the bottom line is this is a race.

And so he just wants someone who can help him win. That's what Mike Pence did for him back in 2016. The former Indiana governor brought more evangelical voters to Trump. That was a group who had been skeptical of him up to that point. Now, though, evangelicals are some of his strongest supporters. So he needs to appeal to a different group of voters. I asked Alex Conant about this. He's a Republican strategist who worked on Marco Rubio's 2016 presidential campaign. Trump really, really wants to win this election. And so he's going to be looking for somebody who appeals to independent voters, to conservatives, and potentially even some Democrats. This is especially important because as a new NPR PBS

News mayor's poll shows, the race is a dead heat between Biden and Trump. So Trump is definitely considering who can appeal to new voters. But like Franco said, it's also about performance. Don't forget, this person will have to debate against Vice President Harris when the time comes. And based on the likely schedule of that debate, it could be right after they're picked and nominated at the convention. So it's got to be someone who can hit the ground running. Franco, dig in on some of the specifics that each of these names, Marco Rubio, Doug Burgum, Tim Scott, Elise Stefanik, what they would bring if they are the eventual pick.

Yeah, Jung Yoon mentioned loyalty and not overshadowing Trump. All those names you just mentioned fit that bill. It's also about what voters you can bring in. Tim Scott, of course, he's the only black Republican senator. He actually just launched a nearly $15 million campaign from his own PAC to help bring in black and brown voters in swing states. Elise Stefanik, she's one of the few women on that list. She's also a young leader. And she's really embraced the traditional attack role of vice presidential candidates,

going after basically anyone who goes after Trump, whether it's Biden or prosecutors. Fundraising, of course, is also a big factor. And both of those candidates have also been pretty good for congressional candidates. And what about the other two, Rubio and Burgum? Well, Burgum's rich, so he helps with fundraising as well. I mean, he's a successful businessman and therefore can relate to Trump on that business level. Marco Rubio, he's been getting a lot of attention recently. He's bilingual. He's Hispanic. You know, he got close to Trump during his first administration, even serving as an advisor on key foreign policy issues like Latin America and China.

He also has some of those traditional Republican values that could help Trump pull back some of those moderate Republicans. And just one more name that we haven't talked about yet, J.D. Vance. He's a favorite of a lot of Trump's supporters and could be kind of a sleeper pick. He actually won this past weekend's straw poll at the Turning Point Convention. He actually is perhaps the closest embodiment of the Trump movement. I'll up the ante and throw in one more name, Nikki Haley, who, of course, Trump vanquished in the primary. She now says she'll vote for him. Might that go anywhere? Well, I mean, she was certainly an early person in the beginning, but of course she ran against Trump, was his rival for a long time, you know, pulled out the race.

And, you know, things got pretty, you know, pretty tense between the two. So I don't anticipate that, but Trump's someone who surprises very often. Okie dokie. Jun Yun, I have to ask, given Mike Pence's experience the last time around, why would these or any other contenders want the job of being Trump's vice president? You're right. Mike Pence was probably case in point that being associated with Trump wasn't always the best option and didn't turn out well for him, clearly. And being associated with Trump more broadly wasn't always seen as a smart move. Alex Conant says back in 2016, for example, the conventional wisdom was that Trump was going to lose and no one wanted that kind of baggage. Now it's the exact opposite of that. I think they think he's going to win

and he's only got one turn left. So whoever the vice presidential pick is now is going to be the front runner at this point for 2028, which is not that far from now. So a lot of this is really about their political futures, because whoever becomes Trump's VP nominee will definitely secure their spot in the party for decades to come. Franco, last word, what is the latest that Trump is actually saying? What kind of timing are we actually looking at for this announcement? I mean, Trump's taken his time. I mean, he's letting the hype continue to build before he makes an official announcement, which is expected to be just before or during the Republican National Convention next month. I mean, when it comes to specific people like the ones we're talking about here,

a senior advisor did tell me that anyone claiming to know who or when President Trump will choose as VP is lying unless the person is named Donald J. Trump. That said, these names that we're discussing, all of them are working extremely hard to get Trump's attention these few weeks. Reporting there from two of our Washington Desk colleagues and Piers Franco-Ordonez, thank you. Thank you. And Jung Yoon-Hwan, thank you. Thank you. And Jung Yoon Han, thank you. Thank you. This episode was produced by Erica Ryan. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Megan Pratz with audio engineering from Ted Meebane and David Greenberg. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan.

And another reminder, you can now enjoy Consider This in newsletter form. Just like on the podcast, we'll help you break down a major story of the day. You'll also get to know our producers and our hosts, and we will share some moments of joy from the All Things Considered team. Sign up at npr.org slash consider this newsletter. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.