Consider This from NPR - What a second Biden or Trump presidency could mean for American allies and foes

Episode Date: June 12, 2024

America is facing two very different futures on the world stage after November. If former President Trump wins, he's promised to fundamentally re-evaluate the NATO alliance, reshape global trade and overhaul the Pentagon, State Department and intelligence agencies.He's largely avoided explaining how he'd handle the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, yet says he can settle the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.Meanwhile, if President Biden wins, he's signaled his commitment to fight global threats to peace and freedom, and he's vowed to continue to help Ukraine and Israel fight in their respective wars.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

With wars underway in the Middle East and Europe, America's role in international affairs is a priority for many voters this election. Some 40 percent of Americans think foreign policy should be a primary issue in this election. That's according to an AP News poll, and that is up from last year. The two major presidential candidates have laid out very different visions for how the U.S. should interact with the rest of the world. Here's Donald Trump from his inauguration speech in 2017. We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power.

From this day forward, a new vision will govern our land. From this day forward, it's going to be only America first. America first. Joe Biden, meanwhile, used his inauguration speech as a direct rebuttal to Trump, making it clear that on his watch, America would once again be a leader in international diplomacy. We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again. Not to meet yesterday's challenges, but today's and tomorrow's challenges. And we'll lead not merely by the example of our power, but by the power of our example.

At the time of his inauguration, Biden's biggest foreign policy challenge was getting the United States out of Afghanistan. But the chaotic withdrawal from that country was criticized by both Republicans and Democrats, and it angered allies. Now Biden is juggling Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war. Both conflicts are politically divisive, something Trump has tried to use to his advantage. Here he is in November speaking to Univision. Three years ago, we had no problems. We had no inflation. We had no Ukraine problem. We had no Israel problem.

We had no problems. Biden has been pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza following global outcry over the deaths of thousands of Palestinians. But Biden has also made clear since the Hamas attack on October 7th that he supports Israel and will continue to do so. So in this moment, we must be crystal clear. We stand with Israel. We stand with Israel. Consider this. Trump has signaled that in a second term, he would make big changes to U.S. relationships with allies and pull back on U.S. commitments of global defense. Biden has signaled his commitment to fight global threats to peace and freedom, and he's vowed he would continue to help Ukraine and Israel. How much will their opposing views influence how Americans vote in November. Coming up, NPR's Greg Myrie and Franco Ordonez on how Trump and Biden's outlooks on international events could impact the U.S. elections and how America is viewed in the world. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It's Consider This from NPR.

America is facing two very different futures on the world stage under a potential second term for Biden or Trump. Trump promises to fundamentally re-evaluate the NATO alliance, reshape global trade, overhaul the Pentagon, State Department, and intelligence agencies. He has largely avoided explaining how he would handle the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, yet says he can settle the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. What is clear is that Trump plans to pick up where he left off during his first term and then push farther. And Piers Franco-Ordonez took a closer look. Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina, former President Donald Trump recalled a European leader asking if the U.S. would defend the country if they were invaded by Russia, even if they had not met NATO's spending targets.

No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You've got to pay. You've got to pay your bills. It was a stunning admission that was seen as a shot across the bow to European allies and the foreign policy establishment. The statement was less about the threat that allowing Russia to do whatever it wanted would mean for the countries involved and more about what it says about Trump's view of alliances. Ivo Dolder served as the U.S. ambassador to NATO in the Obama administration,

so it makes sense he'd be critical. But his larger point, which is being echoed across party lines, is that Trump is reducing the importance of a 75-year alliance to the U.S. being an army for hire, and that NATO isn't something that is fundamental to U.S. security. A Trump return to the Oval Office means that an alliance like NATO, which is built fundamentally on trust, will suffer because people will not be able to trust Donald Trump to defend them if and when the emergency arises. Trump's dissatisfaction with NATO is nothing new. He's been critical of Western allies and cozied up to authoritarian leaders like Russia's Vladimir Putin and Hungary's Viktor Orban. From the campaign trail, Trump's raised concerns that the U.S. is paying too much

to support Ukraine. He's promised again to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accords. And he's floated the idea of a 10% tax on imports from all countries, and a much higher tax on China. Because China's eating our lunch right now. Foreign policy veterans like John Simon, who served as ambassador to the African Union in the Bush administration, take issue with Trump's approach to Russia and Ukraine, and worry he'll dismantle key tenets of American foreign policy, like standing up to totalitarian aggression. My great fear is that a second Trump administration would

have all the hallmarks of his first administration without any of the guardrails that were provided by the more experienced foreign policy folks who were around him. He would be like a child without any parents to stop him from doing really bad things. In Europe, the idea of Trump's return brings a mix of excitement, resignation, and fear. Last time around, actually, Trump had a fairly unifying effect on Europe. Natalie Tocci, a former top EU foreign policy advisor, says leaders rallied together during his first administration as the U.S. seemed to check out from the transatlantic relationship. But the political landscape in Europe has changed. And she says a second potential Trump

term has some keeping their heads in the sand, unable or unwilling to face that prospect. So it's more like, you know, this kind of fear of something that is happening and you think it's going to happen and you're more and more convinced that it will happen. But it's so scary that you just prefer not to think about it. European parliamentary elections this week that saw a rise in far-right parties further worry more establishment leaders. She says Trump's election could inflame those divisions. We may see a rather unseemly show of European leaders kind of rushing to Washington to kiss the ring. Without mentioning Trump's name,

Biden nodded to some of those concerns while traveling in France last week for the 80th anniversary of D-Day. Isolationism was not the answer eight years ago and is not the answer today. Trump has dismissed the criticism, blaming Biden and the foreign policy establishment for creating a more dangerous world. Brian Lanza, a former Trump aide who remains close to the campaign, says Trump was right to challenge NATO members to step up their defense contributions. Now Trump feels validated. The criticisms that exist from the foreign policy community, those are criticisms because they don't want change. Of course, it's impossible

to predict Trump's exact policies, which has only increased feelings of uncertainty. Heather Conley, who worked on European issues in the Bush State Department, says it's important to remember that many of the policies will be the same, whether it's Biden or Trump. I often tell European colleagues there is more continuity to U.S. policy than we sometimes suggest because we personalize this and these personalities certainly have different approaches to allies very specifically. She points to similarities in their trade agenda and how Biden maintained the Abraham Accords, a key Trump victory. Both leaders kept a strong relationship with Israel and a hawkish approach to China. Underneath, sometimes the policy can look awfully similar.

Despite the differences in personalities, she says they're going to have to deal with the substance of those policies, regardless of who is in the White House. Franco Ordonez, NPR News. Okay, turning now to President Biden, who within months of taking over the White House ended America's longest war by pulling U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. Since then, two new wars have erupted, sparked by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the October 7th Hamas attack in Israel in 2023. NPR's Greg Myrie explains how these wars are defining Biden's presidency and complicating his re-election bid. When Ukraine came under Russian assault, President Biden's response was swift. I think Biden surprised the world. He certainly surprised the Russians

by his decision in 2022 to create a broad democratic alliance to defend Ukraine. Anne Applebaum is an author and historian who writes extensively on this war. And in the Israel-Hamas fight, Matthew Kroening at the Atlantic Council gives Biden high marks for jumping in immediately to back Israel. I think the Biden administration's instinct right after the October 7th attack was the correct one to have Israel's back in its goal to eliminate Hamas. Both wars have their own distinct dynamics, and like most conflicts, the longer they grind on, the messier and more complicated they become. Biden's backing of Ukraine still has broad support in the U.S. and the West.

However, his embrace of Israel faces widespread criticism, mostly over the high death toll for Palestinian civilians. Stephen Walt is a professor of international relations at Harvard. The United States has provided unconditional support for an Israeli approach that is both unlikely to eradicate Hamas and has done enormous humanitarian damage. Biden is calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and has publicly chastised Israel over Palestinian civilian deaths. Yet he still supports Israel's effort to fully defeat Hamas and has stepped up U.S. military assistance. In Ukraine, Biden remains wary of provoking a Russian escalation and repeatedly sets limits on the kinds of weapons sent to Ukraine and how they can be used. There's been kind of indecision. Again, Matthew Kroenig. Should we provide tanks? First answer was no, then itenig. Should we provide tanks? First, the answer was no. Then it was yes.

Should we provide aircraft? First, the answer was no. Then it was yes. Should we allow Ukraine to strike into Russian territory? First, it was no. Then it was yes. And Applebaum says Biden should say explicitly how he wants the war in Ukraine to end. I would like him to say clearly that he believes the Ukrainians can win the war and that he understands that a defeat of Russia is the only way the war can end permanently. In contrast, Stephen Walt says Biden has been too willing to go along with Ukraine's goal of driving out all Russian troops, a goal Walt finds unrealistic. We've let Ukraine basically determine the war aims. And so the United States, you know, has not put any meaningful pressure on Ukraine to

cut a diplomatic deal. And I think is unfortunately presiding over a long war of attrition that is doing enormous harm to Ukraine. In short, there's no way Biden can please everyone. He's popular among the Ukrainian and Israeli publics for his strong support. His relationship with the leaders of those countries is trickier. Biden and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky met in Paris on Friday. Biden announced more weapons for Ukraine and Zelensky expressed his gratitude. But Zelensky has also signaled frustration with Biden's policy of placing limits on U.S. weapons. Again, Ann Applebaum. Clearly, Zelensky and Biden have different goals. Biden is fighting an election.

Zelensky is fighting a war. They have a different timeline. They have a different sense of urgency. And I think it's fully understandable that there can be misunderstandings. Meanwhile, Biden has a long history of friction with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the Israeli leader has often defied Biden's wishes, says Stephen Walt. The Biden team believed that by embracing and supporting Netanyahu, they would have influence over his actions. And that influence seems to be paltry at best. As Biden faces a reelection battle against Donald Trump,

the conventional wisdom is that issues abroad rarely, if ever, determine a presidential contest. However, as Matthew Kroenig notes, the Middle East war is provoking strong emotions and ongoing protests against Israeli military action and Biden support it for Israel. And so I think Biden wants to get these conflicts to die down before the election. President Biden hasn't and insists he won't send U.S. troops into the conflict zones in the Middle East or Ukraine. Yet he still faces tough decisions, says Stephen Walt. The danger is that you can get dragged into these things the longer they continue. And I will give Biden credit for having resisted that temptation up until now. Remains to be seen

if he will continue to resist it if the situation gets worse. And both wars are sure to deliver more surprises. Greg Myrie, NPR News, Washington. This episode was produced by Erica Ryan, Megan Lim, and Karen Zamora, with audio engineering by Ted Meebane. It was edited by Jeanette Woods, Andrew Sussman, and Megan Pratz. Our executive producer is Sammy Yinnigan. And in case you haven't heard, you can now enjoy Consider This in newsletter form. Just like here on the podcast, we will help you break down a major story of the day, but you will also get to know our

producers and our hosts, and we'll share some moments of joy from the All Things Considered team. You can sign up at npr.org slash consider this newsletter. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.