Consider This from NPR - What A Third Term For Xi Jinping Could Mean For China And The World

Episode Date: October 19, 2022

This week, China's Communist Party Congress is expected to approve a historic third term in office for the country's leader, Xi Jinping. Xi has already been in power for a decade, a period marked by growing authoritarianism in China. Many experts believe he could emerge a more emboldened leader in his new term. Ailsa Chang speaks with Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, about the global implications of a third term for Xi Jinping and how this signals a new era for China. And NPR's Emily Feng reports on how little we know about the way China's Communist Party Congress makes its decisions.In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Support for NPR comes from NPR member stations and Eric and Wendy Schmidt through the Schmidt Family Foundation, working toward a healthy, resilient, secure world for all. On the web at theschmidt.org. Ten years ago, in his first speech as the leader of the world's most populous nation and second largest economy, Xi Jinping talked about the great revival of the Chinese nation. Our responsibility is to lead the whole party together. Under his leadership, Xi said, China would stand more firmly and powerfully and make a greater contribution to mankind. Uyghur scholar Ilham Toti was paying close attention.

He sounded so sad. He's like, I think it's going to change now. Things are going to get better. That's Toti's daughter, Juer Ilham. She says her father was optimistic that things would improve for Uyghurs, the Turkic-speaking ethnic minority living in China's western region of Xinjiang. Toti is an outspoken activist for Uyghur rights. But his high hopes for Xi Jinping didn't last long. He was officially arrested January 15, 2014.

Three months later, Xi would visit Xinjiang and secretly set in motion an unprecedented crackdown on Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in the name of fighting terrorism and separatism. By some estimates, a million or more people would eventually be detained. That September, Ilham Toti was sentenced to life in prison for separatism. It's kind of sad that he was so hopeful. In the 10 years since Xi first came to power, China has been marked by growing authoritarianism. But Xi has also faced challenges. His tough zero-COVID policy included strict lockdowns that sparked rare protests and weakened the Chinese economy. Relations with the U.S. have deteriorated sharply, in part because of tensions over the status of Taiwan. Xi has also cultivated a close relationship with Russia's Vladimir Putin, even after the Russian

invasion of Ukraine. Not a particularly popular move on the global stage, but as Chinese politics expert Joseph Torrigian puts it, the Chinese Communist Party is not a popularity contest. And even if it were, it's hard to gauge public opinion in China. Independent polling on politics is banned, and speaking out against the Communist Party can get you thrown in jail. Plus, Xi Jinping does have a lot of support in the country, from people like Lao Zhang, a retired factory worker who's seen a lot of change in China over his 72 years. Xi Jinping is a good man. I think he's honest and upright. According to Zhang, that's key in today's China. He applauds Xi for attacking corruption, tackling poverty, and trying to create more equality. And he praises him for unapologetically

standing up for China on the international stage. We want him to stay in office and have at least one more term. He's good. This week, Zhang is likely to get his wish. Consider this. Xi Jinping has become China's most powerful leader since the founder of the People's Republic of China, Mao Zedong. This week, delegates to the Chinese Communist Party Congress are expected to hand Xi Jinping a norm-breaking third term. Many experts believe that he may emerge an even more emboldened leader. He's able to focus even more on implementing his foreign strategy and operationalizing his vision of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Coming up, we'll look at the impact a third Xi term could have on China and the world. From NPR, I'm Juana Summers. It's Wednesday, October 19th. This message comes from WISE, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally, and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the WISE app today or visit WISE.com. T's and C's apply. It's Consider This from NPR. The world got a glimpse of what a third term with Xi Jinping in power could mean for China moving forward during a nearly two-hour speech he delivered on the opening day of this year's Communist Party Congress. Xi echoed his words from a decade ago,

saying that now is a historical opportunity for China to raise its standing and influence in the world. He once again defended his aggressive zero-COVID policy, and he hinted at further pressure on unification with Taiwan, saying, we reserve the option of taking all measures necessary. He also warned of dangerous storms facing China. Yun Sun is a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia program and director of the China program at the Stimson Center. She says ominous warnings like that aren't unusual for Xi Jinping. Because that's actually part of the government tactics or his leadership techniques, which is to warn the people of the danger that China is in and then showcase to the people that I am your best option. I can lead you out of this obstacle and I can lead you out of

these difficult times. So it's more of a leadership legitimization. Yun Sun foresees a bolder Xi Jinping in the near future. She spoke to my colleague Elsa Chang about what a third Xi term says about his hold over the Chinese Communist Party now. It means that China has entered a new era and it's really a piece of uncharted water compared to what we have seen in the past four decades. In the past four decades, per the 1982 constitution, we knew that for sure China had a power transition plan for the leadership. So every 10 years, there is going to be a new leader and there is a consensus building process in terms of the selection of that leader. But now by abandoning that practice and that tradition, Xi Jinping's third term means that we don't know

what the future leadership transition in China will look like or how it will be determined. And that raises a lot of potential for instability or even power struggle and elite politics competition within the Chinese Communist Party. And what's interesting is it has been a relatively politically trickier time for Xi Jinping lately, right? Like, can you talk about the effect that the zero COVID policy and the resulting economic slowdown in China has had on Xi's influence? Yes, indeed. 2022 has not been a good year for Xi Jinping. And especially if you consider the power transition and the third term

that he has had his eyes on. 2022 is a terrible year. The Russian war in Ukraine also created a lot of uncertainty, as well as embarrassment for China in terms of Xi Jinping's foreign policy. People ask questions that how did you reach that no-limit cooperation commitment with Putin? Did you know that Putin was going to invade Ukraine within three weeks of that joint statement? So this year has really been hard for Xi Jinping because he has to explain, despite all these hardships and all these strategic headwinds that we have encountered this year, I still deserve a third term. My leadership is still warranted. My leadership is still the best option

for the party and for the Chinese people. The party congress is celebrated and Chinese people just hope that, well, let's conclude this party congress so that we can move forward. We can reduce some of the COVID-related restrictions and we can resume normal economic and social activities. I want to talk further about the global implications of a third term for Xi Jinping. What does his holding on to power mean specifically for U.S.-China relations, in your mind? I think it means three things. The first one is that with Xi Jinping inking his third term at the party congress, which means moving forward, he is not going to be distracted by this domestic political priority anymore. In the past five years, I would say Xi Jinping was aiming for the third term,

but he had to prioritize how to convince the establishment within the party and convince the elderly leaders why it is a good idea to remove the term limit and why it is a good idea for him to violate the traditions that had been established. So moving forward, he's no longer going to be distracted by this political agenda, which is domestic primarily. So he's able to focus even more on implementing his foreign strategy and operationalizing his vision of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. That inevitably will lead to even more, I would say, contest for influence and contest for leadership, contest for superiority with the United States. And the other two factors within the party, after the 20th Party Congress and Xi Jinping secures his third term, he is going to appoint

his political confidants and his political loyalists to all the key positions that are related to national security and foreign policy, because this is actually one of the areas compared to, for example, domestic reform and domestic economic policy. This is an area that Xi Jinping is going to prevail. These people are going to operationalize his vision and his strategy with even more momentum and more precision. And that leads us to the third factor, which is dissenting views. And people who do not believe that Xi Jinping's current, for example, policy towards the United States is a good idea, their voices are going to be eliminated from within the bureaucracy. So there is not going to be check and balance. There's not going to be a challenge to the assumptions

and to the existing consensus within the bureaucracy. And these three factors are all going to, I believe, deepen Xi Jinping's boldness. That was Yun Sun, a senior fellow and co-director of the East Asia Program and director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. At the heart of all of this are the decisions made every five years by China's Communist Party Congress. Yet we know very little about how those decisions are made.

As NPR's Emily Fang explains, what happens at the party congress still remains shrouded in secrecy. Now, let us welcome the general secretary and the committee. This is what we get to see of the party congress, unveiled to us at the very end. Usually a line of seven men who form the next top echelon of Communist Party leadership. They're called the Politburo Standing Committee, and it's this group that

makes all the big decisions in China for the next five years. What we do not see is how they were chosen. It's a legitimating activity. That's Ling Li, who teaches Chinese politics at the University of Vienna in Austria on a decision-making process that is shrouded in secrecy. Instead of just appointing new party leaders, they go through all these electoral procedures, which is very much rehearsed and planned. But the result gives the choices of the next generation of party leaders a heightened legitimacy. The few rules that are written down in the party charter either aren't followed or they can be changed to produce the desired political outcome. For example, this time, Xi Jinping, the current head of China's Communist Party, wants to stay on beyond two five-year terms, 10 years, is a very new thing. That's Victor Shi, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of California, San Diego.

And Xi Jinping doesn't seem to just want a third term. He effectively could be the country's leader for life. He will serve the third term, but then people are like, well, what about five years from now? What about 10 years from now? Is there ever going to be a plan to have a successor to Xi Jinping? Since the 1980s, then-party leader Deng Xiaoping tried to standardize how leaders are appointed and distribute decision-making power among the Politburo Standing Committee. These reforms were meant to prevent an autocrat from taking power for life and reduce the influence of retired officials.

But Alfred Wu, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore, says this party congress will likely signal a reversal of all of this. Deng Xiaoping tried to argue for a modernization of Chinese public administration system. So he does not want some senior folks to dominate the politics in China. But now it looks like someone will be in power forever. And now, Xi Jinping has amassed enormous power over not just the Communist Party, but the country's military and police as well. Still, Wu Qiang, he's an independent political analyst in Beijing. He says people in China are closely watching this party congress. It will showcase just how much of a hold Xi Jinping actually has over the Chinese Communist Party.

Even those who feel fear or regret at the party's political controls have this fantasy that there will be some kind of effort at accountability, even a political pivot where Xi's third term is opposed by officials within the Communist Party. That's why this party Congress is so important. It gives us a glimpse of where China is heading. But in reality, almost none of what goes on behind the scenes is ever revealed. And that's extraordinary. Just how little we know about how one of the most powerful countries in the world is run. NPR's Emily Fang reporting. Earlier in the episode,

NPR's John Rewich also contributed reporting. From NPR, it's Consider This. I'm Juana Summers. Support for NPR and the following message come from Carnegie Corporation of New York, working to reduce political polarization through philanthropic support for education, democracy, and peace. More information at carnegie.org. Support for NPR and the following message come from the Kauffman Foundation, providing access to opportunities that help people achieve financial stability, upward mobility, and economic prosperity,

regardless of race, gender, or geography. Kauffman.org.