Consider This from NPR - What Assad's Fall Means For The World

Episode Date: December 9, 2024

For half a century, one family has brutally ruled Syria. Nearly overnight, that reign ended. Syria is not only a home to millions of people. It's also a crucial piece in a geopolitical chess game.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

For half a century, one family has brutally ruled Syria. And nearly overnight, that reign ended. The shock still has not worn off, especially for those who fought against his regime. I feel like I won't believe it till I see it. I almost don't wanna like jinx myself, but I also wanna declare to the world Damascus is free. Moaz Mustafa and his family left the city of Damascus

in 1995. He was a teenager then. He studied in the United States and made a life here. Now he's executive director of a nonprofit called the Syrian Emergency Task Force. The country isn't just the focus of Mustafa's work, it's what he thinks about all the time. It's my life. I mean, it's the greatest honor of my life to have been part of a revolution calling for dignity and democracy and freedom.

When he came into our studios, he was getting ready to board a flight, his first trip back to the place of his birth in many years. Damascus is a city transformed, newly liberated by a Syrian rebel force. What are you gonna do the first thing when you arrive, when you land on that soil? I'm gonna kiss the ground. I you land on that soil? I'm going to kiss the ground.

I'm going to kiss that soil that I've dreamed of going back to for so long. As you see these huge numbers of people released from Syrian prisons, are there specific democracy advocates or activists or people you've worked with who you are waiting to see if they emerge? I have an uncle who was my compass in life. You know, sometimes in our families, you have one person who just, you really get along with, you know, like more than best friends. After I took John McCain to Syria in 2013 or so, my uncle and his wife, his little kids, it was one year old at the time, Omar, four year old Maria, 14 year old Sally, they were all taken. Thank God we were able to

find a way to get my aunt and my nephews and nieces home. But my uncle, I think he's dead, but I still have some hope maybe in one of these dungeons when we open them, that he may still be there. But I don't know if I'm lying to myself or not, but in Syria the people in jails are the people that should be free and the people that were jailing them are the people that should be in jail. Consider this. Syria is not only a home to millions of people, it's also a crucial piece in a geopolitical chess game. Coming up, what the fall of Bashar al-Assad means for the future of the world.

From NPR. In Damascus, there are scenes of jubilation in the streets, people freed from Syrian prisons, wandering through palaces, and stomping on photos of Bashar al-Assad, the deposed dictator whose family ruled the country for half a century. We're going to look now at the country's important global role and how the fall of the Assad regime could change geopolitical dynamics all over the world. Professor Joshua Landis directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Welcome. It's a pleasure being with you, Art. I want to try to tackle both the past, why this happened, and the future, what it means for the world. So let's start by looking backwards. Iran and Russia both helped support the Syrian regime for years, and this time they didn't. Why do you think this went differently? Well, they're both totally preoccupied.

Russia in the Ukraine war, 160 of its airplanes have been shot down. It didn't have the material to help Assad. And Iran? And Iran, very similarly, it had its ears pinned back by Israel and these back and forth attacks and its major ally, Hezbollah, was largely destroyed by Israel and Hezbollah had been the number one backer of Assad during the retaking of Aleppo and reconquering much of Syria as he had so without Russia without Hezbollah without Iran The Syrian army was really naked and we saw that it just didn't have much more

We've also heard that the Syrian army itself was hollowed out over the last several years. What does that actually mean? Well, I'll tell you a little anecdote which explains it to a certain part is that the officers around Aleppo were getting about $30 a month and the enlisted men $10 a month. And so what officers had done is they'd sent many of their enlisted men home in order to collect their salaries, in order to feed their families. And Damascus just wasn't sending money, and soldiers were living off the land, and stopping people at roadblocks, taking money from them. Everything had begun to crumble. So you had Russia bogged down in Ukraine,

Iran weakened by Israel's attacks on Hezbollah, the Syrian military hollowed out. Was there a U.S. role here? There was an important U.S. role, and that is sanctions and taking the oil and gas. Very strict sanctions on Syria meant that very little money or rebuilding could take place. America took the oil and gas. When it entered into the fray in Syria, it conquered a large hunk of northeast Syria,

which has much of its good agriculture, but also most of its oil and gas wells. America uses that to help support its Kurdish proxy in Syria. Before the war, 40% of government receipts came from that oil and gas, and that was denied to Damascus. Between sanctions and denying the oil and gas, the regime really was hollowed out and didn't have money to pay people.

Syria has been such a crucial, strategically useful ally to Russia and Iran. It's a very important square on the global chessboard. Can you explain why? Well, for Russia, Tartus on the coast is the major port for Russia to refit its ships in the Mediterranean. It was the only Russian port where it could rebuild and refit ships. So that is going to be a major loss.

It also was strategically very important. For example, in the past, Israel had provided Georgia with tons of arms and Russia said, you continue to do that and we'll support Assad with anti-aircraft missiles. Netanyahu flew to Putin and they agreed to stop arming Georgia. Same with Ukraine. Israel has been very careful not to supply Ukraine with tons of weapons for fear of alienating Russia. And now Russia doesn't have that card anymore. And why is Syria so essential to Iran? The Shiite crescent, as it's been called, that is these four states,

Hezbollah dominated Lebanon, Assad, heterodox Shiite dominating Syria, Shiite dominated Iraq and Iran, formed a long corridor right through the middle of the Middle East and they're also the axis of resistance to Israel and Hezbollah was resupplied by Iran over Syrian territory. Iran could not get its arms in through the air or through shipping, only over land through Syria so by denying Syria, flipping Syria from a Shiite country to a Sunni-ruled country is going to deny it to Iran, and that means Iran will not be able to rebuild Hezbollah.

And so we don't know which way Syria's new leadership will go, but if the country stops being a reliable funnel for Iranian weapons and fighters that have gone to Hezbollah, and if it stops being home to Russia's air and naval presence, home to Russia's only port on the Mediterranean Sea, how does that change the world? Well, it's certainly going to change the Middle East because Turkey is going to have overriding influence. Syria will be ruled by Sunni Muslims for the first time in about 60 years, and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries are going to look for influence in Damascus as well, replacing Iran. It is going to firm up this sort of Sunni dominated Middle East, and it's going to hurt Iran considerably.

And as to the role of the United States in all of this under a second Trump presidency, I mean, he posted in all caps on social media, this is not our fight. What role do you see the United States playing? Right now, I think most people in Washington are scratching their head and trying to figure out can this government really rule Damascus? Ruling Idlib province was one thing, but ruling an entire country, Syria, is going to be much more difficult. And Syria is a very diverse country with ethnic and religious minorities.

El-Jolani is gonna have a hard time bringing them all together. This is the rebel leader Abu Mohammed El-Jolani, yeah. Yes, so America's taking a wait and see attitude. That's what Biden expressed. He is not giving back those oil wells right away. He is gonna remain supporting the Kurds. El-Jolani is gonna want those oil wells. He's gonna want America to leave and Turkey's gonna remain supporting the Kurds. El Jolani is gonna want those oil wells. He's gonna want

America to leave and Turkey's gonna pressure both America and Jolani, who is very dependent on Turkey, to help him get rid of the Americans. And he's gonna want sanctions lifted. So America is, I've got to decide whether it's going to embrace him. And right now, I think most of the countries in the region and in the international community want to look at this as a good moment, as a moment of victory for them all and to help the regime. At the same time, there's a lot of anxiety about the future that Syria could turn into an unholy mess without being able to consolidate power. And we'll have to see how it does it and what attitude it takes, of course, towards government. Democracy,

jihadism, all of these things. Joshua Landis directs the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. Thank you very much. Pleasure. This episode was produced by Mark Rivers, Erica Ryan, and Catherine Fink. It was edited by Christopher and Taliyahda, Tinbeat Ermias, Nadia Lantzi, and Sammy Yenigan, who's also our executive producer. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Ari Shapiro. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon Prime members can listen to Consider This I'm Ari Shapiro.