Consider This from NPR - What It's Like In Ukraine, Under Threat Of A Russian Invasion

Episode Date: January 27, 2022

Tensions are not abating as the U.S. and NATO continue efforts to avoid armed conflict with Russia. This week President Biden said a Russian invasion of Ukraine would "change the world." State Department spokesperson Ned Price tells NPR what leverage the U.S. has to prevent that from happening. Mary Louise Kelly reports from Kyiv, where some people are preparing for an invasion, even as the Ukraine government urges calm. Additional reporting in this episode from NPR's Michele Kelemen and Daniel Estrin. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment that will help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Tensions are going up, not down. Urgent talks to prevent a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. Talks between the U.S. and Russia did not get very far last week. And then the State Department ordered the families of all American personnel at the U.S. Embassy in Kiev to leave Ukraine. The latest memo stating that the security conditions are unpredictable and can deteriorate with little notice. Then the Pentagon said it was putting thousands of troops on alert for possible deployment, not to Ukraine itself, but nearby in Eastern Europe. 8,500 U.S. troops are being put on alert.

And today we saw live pictures of U.S. military equipment heading to the Ukrainians. And then President Biden again warned that an invasion of Ukraine would trigger enormous consequences for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Not only in terms of economic consequences and political consequences, but it would be enormous consequences worldwide. This would be the largest, if he were to move in with all those forces, it would be the largest invasion since World War II. It would change the world. Thank you, The world is watching, waiting, and wondering. Is this brinkmanship? Or is Russia about to set off a worldwide conflict? Our colleagues are on the ground in Ukraine, where some people aren't waiting to find out. They're preparing to be invaded.

From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang. T's and C's apply. It's Consider This from NPR. At this point, as we record on this Thursday, everyone is still talking. I can't be more clear. NATO's door is open, remains open, and that is our commitment. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters Wednesday the U.S. has signaled an openness to negotiate on some of Russia's concerns, things like placement of offensive missile systems in Ukraine or military exercises in Europe. The ball is in their court. We'll see what we do. As I've said repeatedly, whether they choose the path of diplomacy and dialogue, whether they decide to renew aggression against Ukraine, we're prepared either way.

And Blinken's deputy, Wendy Sherman, said the U.S. is prepared for the possibility of Russian aggression in the next few weeks. We all are aware that the Beijing Olympics begin on February 4th, the opening ceremony, and President Putin expects to be there. I think that probably President Xi Jinping would not be ecstatic if Putin chose that moment to invade Ukraine. So that may affect his timing and his thinking. All of this leaves the U.S. in the same position it's occupied for weeks.

On one hand, trying to lead in negotiations to stop a conflict. And on the other, preparing for that conflict with troops on alert and hundreds of millions of dollars in military equipment shipped to Ukraine. So can the U.S. effectively negotiate to stop a war and prepare for that war at the same time? Host Ari Shapiro put that question to the State Department's top spokesperson, Ned Price. Are these preparations the U.S. is making actually likely to deter Russia, which has at least 100,000 troops near Ukraine's border? Well, there's only one person who can decide whether this is the path of dialogue and diplomacy that we pursue or it's the path of defense and deterrence, and that's Vladimir Putin.

We have done everything we can to signal in meaningful and sincere ways that dialogue and diplomacy is what we prefer. Just as we continue down that path of defense and deterrence, we have provided in the last year more than $650 million in defensive security assistance. That's almost 300 tons in defensive security assistance to the Ukrainians. More deliveries are on their way as we speak. We've authorized our allies to provide U.S. origin equipment to the Ukrainians as well. You've heard from the Department of Defense that they're putting on notice 8,500 service members at a heightened state of readiness. And we have talked extensively, Ari, about the swift, the severe, the united response that the United States and our allies would enact. But President Biden has also been very clear that

U.S. troops are not going to enter Ukraine. And the U.S. talked a lot about defense and deterrence when Russia illegally annexed Crimea almost a decade ago. The U.S. passed sanctions, kicked Russia out of the G8, expressed condemnation. The military did not get involved, and today Crimea remains under Russia's control. If Russia invades Kiev, what would make the outcome any different? I'll make a couple points here. Number one, we've been clear that the measures we are talking about now would go well beyond what we enacted in 2014 in response to Russia's aggression against Ukraine then. These were measures that were intentionally avoided in 2014 because of the severity they would have. Number two, typically a response like this starts

out gradually and builds up, builds up if the country in question does not change its behavior. We are reversing that here. We are going to start at the top of the escalation ladder, meaning our sanctions, our response will be severe. We've talked about sanctions. We've talked about export controls. We've talked about a variety of measures that will enact a very high toll on the Russian Federation. On top of all of that, you have heard us speak to the defensive security assistance that we are providing to Ukraine, but also what we are doing to reassure and to reinforce NATO's eastern flank. All of this, Ari, builds up to a sense of defense and deterrence, the likes of which we have not done before. We've not even contemplated before. And so will you expand on something that President Biden said yesterday?

He said that if Russia does invade, it would change the world. How so? Ari, the president was making the point that Ukraine and Russia, this is important in and of itself. Ukraine is important in and of itself as a U.S. partner, a close U.S. partner. But this is important in and of itself. Ukraine is important in and of itself as a U.S. partner, a close U.S. partner. But this is really bigger than Ukraine. If Russia were to go forward, this would really upset the rules-based international order that, as I mentioned before, has been the guarantor of unprecedented levels of stability, of security and prosperity, not only in Europe after World War II, but around the world to include the other side of the world in the Indo-Pacific. Russia, we are trying to be very clear,

cannot itself unilaterally violate those rules that should be inviolable. And so do you see the U.S. role as a world leader being on the line here? If the U.S. and NATO are not able to counter Russian aggression towards Ukraine, does that shift the geopolitical balance of power in the world away from this post-World War II order and towards something different? Ari, this is not about the United States versus Russia. This is not about the United States and Ukraine versus Russia. international community, our extensive set of allies and partners, the NATO alliance, our allies and partners around the world, standing up to protect these rules that, once again, should be inviolable, to send a message to Moscow that what Moscow may have contemplated, what Moscow may intend, is not acceptable and it will not stand. That was State Department spokesperson Ned Price. What Moscow may intend. That's what Price said there. There are those in the international

community who believe Moscow doesn't intend to invade. And Ukraine's own leaders have been urging people to stay calm. You need to breathe, calm down. There's no need to rush to buy buckwheat and matches. That is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last week in an Instagram video. And this week, Ukraine's foreign minister said the number of Russian troops on the border poses a threat, but is, quote,

insufficient for a full-scale offensive. But are those messages actually reassuring to the people in Ukraine? Well, Mary Louise Kelly arrived in the capital, Kyiv, this week to find out. We have just arrived in this city to report here for the coming days. So we wanted to make our first stop the heart of the city. This is Maidan. We're standing on Independence Square, where all of the protests that changed this country were unfolding in 2013 and 2014. We wanted to hear what's on people's minds today. The first person we meet is 76-year-old Nikolai Putopalsky. Through our interpreter,

he tells us he's worried about war. Are you worried that something will happen in this city? Are you worried for the future of your country? What? Actually, I'm worried about the future of the whole country. He thinks that if something happens, it will happen here in Kyiv. But he's confident that Ukrainians can come together and defend themselves. I'm an old person, but I'm ready to fight to protect my grandchildren. Nikolai has four grandchildren. I can still hold the weapon and I remember how to use it. He's laughing as he says this, but I'm looking at his face. He's serious.

We walk a little farther, towards a statue of the Archangel Michael, meant to provide protection for the city. Here we meet 32-year-old Yana Yarosh. She's an artist, a painter. She says she is trying not to think about war. People say that the war is coming, but I do not read news and I try to keep calm. Still, she says her mom has stockpiled a basement with food, just in case. Are you confident in the government here? Are you kidding me? No. That's a good joke, actually, to be confident

in the government. No, no. Personally, I do not trust what they say. A lot of people we approached waved us off. No politics. No politics, said one woman as she brushed past us. And when we approached 51-year-old Medina a few minutes later, she too was wary of an interview. So we agreed to use her first name only. I am worried, but we are a little bit tired of being worried. We've been worried for over eight years now. Going back to the invasion of Crimea in 2014. And as for now, if Russia does invade, can Ukraine defend itself? Only with your help, guys. So we really need your help. America's help. Yeah, yeah, because Russia is much bigger. We've just wandered a few blocks now from Maidan. We're now standing just at Golden Gate.

This is the lone original gates to the city. And a lot of bars, a lot of pubs, shops around here. We're just going to see if we can catch a few people coming in and out of these big swinging doors leading down into Golden Gate Metro Station. People like Anastasia Golushchenkova, who we interrupt as she's scrolling on her phone. She is 17, a first-year university student. She tells us she's confused by how calm Zelensky, the president, is acting. She does not feel so calm. In my family, personally, we bought some groceries, gas.

You know, when the hard times are coming, you have to buy something. They've stockpiled tens of fish, potato chips, and so on. She says her parents have an apartment in western Ukraine, in the city of Lviv, and her plan, if Russia invades, is hop a train and flee there. We pause for a quick bite, then head into the metro station deep, deep beneath the streets. It is heaving, jammed with commuters, mostly wearing masks, everyone bundled up in down parkas or long fur coats. People all around us going to work, going to school, going about their normal lives. Then, on the train platform, our interpreter checked his phone. Kiev's mayor had just identified metro stations as the main bomb shelters for the city.

The mayor said those stations, quote, God forbid, will stand ready to shelter people during a possible attack. That was Mary Louise Kelly in Kiev. You've also heard reporting in this episode from NPR correspondents Michelle Kellerman and Daniel Estrin. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang.