Consider This from NPR - What to expect after the sudden death of Iran's president, Ebrahim Raisi

Episode Date: May 20, 2024

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has died in a helicopter crash, according to state media. Here's how his death might contribute to instability in Iran and the region.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at [e-mail] more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Breaking overnight, the president of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi... Iranian state-run media confirmed early on Monday that a helicopter carrying Iran's president, Ibrahim Raisi, foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdel-Ehian, and other officials crashed in the mountains of northwest Iran near the border with Azerbaijan. There were no survivors, and Pierce Peter Kenyon has been covering the reaction from Tehran. The Iranian cabinet released a statement lauding Raisi as a hardworking president who made the ultimate sacrifice on the path of serving his nation. But Raisi was also known as a hardline cleric whose violent crackdown on political and social dissent reaches back decades. He was a protege of Supreme Leader Khamenei, and critics have long condemned his role, Raisi's role in the committees known as death squads, back in the 1980s.

They handed down thousands of death sentences to political prisoners. Raisi's been called the Supreme Leader's enforcer. Raisi's strict enforcement of the country's hijab and chastity law led to the arrest of 22-year-old Masa Amini because her headscarf did not properly cover her hair. She died in 2022 while in custody. Recently, he was seen as a supporter of the violent crackdown on women who had failed to comply with Iran's strict Islamic dress code. Anger at Amini's death grew into a movement. Young Iranians took to the streets to air their

grievances against the government's brutality. Human rights groups reported that hundreds of protesters were killed. Thousands were jailed. Well, I traveled to Iran, sat down with Foreign Minister Amir Abdel-Ehian and interviewed him through an interpreter a few months after those protests began. He said news of the government's response had not been reported accurately. First of all, no student whatsoever was detained at the universities or premises of the universities during the riots. In fact, those who were detained were people who played a role in the riots on the streets. Well, this past weekend's helicopter crash comes as Iran and Israel have launched attacks on each other. So news of the Iranian president's death is raising questions about the impact

on the balance of power in the region. And Fierce Daniel Estrin has been covering the Israel-Hamas war. Iran's proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, have been waging a low-grade war with Israel throughout the entire Gaza war. But there is a lot of concern in Israel about instability in Iran now. Israel's opposition leader, Yair Lapid, met with U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Lapid told him Iran will enter a period of instability. Consider this, how might the death of Iran's president and foreign minister contribute to instability in Iran and the region? And what should we watch for from Iran's next elected leader? from NPR.

What's next for Iran? Given news of a helicopter crash in the fog in the mountains of northern Iran, a helicopter that was carrying the president of Iran as well as the foreign minister and other officials, there were no survivors. So in one blow, Iran lost its top elected official and the man charged with steering its foreign policy. Well, Kareem Sajjabpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins me now. Kareem, welcome back. Kareem Sajjabpour Great to be with you. How much instability might this introduce into a country that was already on edge in a region that was already on edge?

In the near term, Mary Louise, I don't think this is going to destabilize Iran in that the institution of presidency in Iran is not a powerful institution. It didn't really oversee certainly Iran's external policies, its nuclear program, or the direction of the country. I mentioned he was the top elected official, but clerics run Iran. Exactly. So I think what this does is it introduces great uncertainty when it comes to Iran's political succession. Iran is ruled by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He's an 85-year-old supreme leader, arguably the longest-serving dictator in the world. And President Raisi was widely thought to be

one of two potential successors to Khamenei, with the other being Khamenei's son, Mujtaba. And Iran is a highly conspiratorial political culture. I think few people will probably believe this was just an accident. And so this introduces great uncertainty when it comes to who succeeds Khamenei, because now there's only one person who's really in the conversation, and that's the dictator's son. And that doesn't look good for a system which came to power by overthrowing a hereditary monarchy and saying, we're different than them. It's interesting. I mean, on the one hand, it sounds as though it introduces more certainty if there's only one leading contender left for who will succeed the Supreme Leader,

who, as you know it, is well into his 80s. Well, in theory, you would think that. But in practice, given the fact that Mojtaba Khamenei, the leader's son, is not a known quantity to Iranians, he's not a popular individual, and he'll have really no legitimacy, that means he'll be coming to power having to rely on the repression of the revolutionary guards to maintain order. You know, I believe that Iran, there's probably few countries in the world with a greater gap between the aspirations of its regime and the aspirations of its society than Iran. You have a regime that aspires to be like

North Korea, a society that aspires to be like South Korea. And Moshe Taba Khamenei doesn't have an inspiring vision for Iran. It's more, you know, death to America, death to Israel, mandatory veil. So he's going to really, in my view, be more of a puppet of the military, the revolutionary guards. And so I think if indeed, and, you know, this is still very uncertain. The Supreme Leader is 85 years old. He could technically live, you technically live a number of years. But I think Raisi's death, the impact it will have is to hasten Iran's transition to either a more overt military government or, frankly, hasten the implosion of a regime which is, in my view,

deeply unpopular and unsustainable. You suggested that this may prompt conspiracy theories, that few Iranians will be persuaded this helicopter crash was an accident. Are you? Dubai, this was an accident? You know, I believe in Occam's razor, that oftentimes or usually the most obvious explanation is the correct one. And, you know, Iran is a country which has suffered a lot from aviational challenges. This helicopter was a Vietnam War era helicopter.

You know, Iran prides itself on building an indigenous nuclear rockets, missiles and drones program. But they were flying their top officials on a 1979 American Bell helicopter in very poor weather and fog. So I think the explanation that it was bad weather is plausible, but Iran is also a country with a lot of adversaries. And some Iranians, I suspect, will think that Israel or the United States may have conducted foul play or that the Supreme Leader may have somehow engineered this so his son could replace him. One more question just in terms of what to watch for next in Iran. There will be elections to replace President Raisi. That has to happen within 50 days. What will you be watching for there in terms of how free and fair those elections are in terms of

what that will tell us about the future, where Iran is how free and fair those elections are in terms of what that will tell us about the future, where Iran is headed? Well, Iranian elections are never free and fair, but they have this unique quality of being unfree, unfair, and unpredictable. So, you know, they usually are not... A triad, yes. Exactly. I mean, last time it was clear that Ayatollah Khamenei wanted to engineer the election of Raisi. This time around, you know, he has options. Does he want to introduce his son to the public as now an elected president? Will he go with perhaps a more pragmatic individual who has a background from the security forces?

It remains to be seen. A lot of people have their eye on the current Speaker of Parliament, Bolivov, who has a background in the security forces. But, you know, we shall see in the coming days and weeks. Last thing, how should the U.S. tread here? Are there implications here for the U.S. relationship with Iran, or is that also just too soon to say? I think the death of Raisi doesn't change Iran's ideological prerogatives, which, as I said, opposition to America, opposition to Israel, certainly doesn't change that in the near term. I think the Biden administration's hope is to avoid any type of escalation and conflict with Iran between now and November. But whoever becomes the U.S. president, whether it's President Biden or President Trump, one of the top items on their

foreign policy agenda will be to counter Iran's advancing nuclear program and to counter Iran's pretty enormous influence in the Middle East and that it's dominating five Arab countries right now. Karim Sajjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment, always a pleasure. Thank you. Thank you so much, Mara Louise. This episode was produced by Mark Rivers and Jordan Marie Smith. It was edited by Jeanette Woods and Sarah Handel. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. And one more thing before we go, you can now enjoy the Consider This newsletter. We still help you break down a major story of the day, but you'll also get to know our producers

and hosts and share some moments of joy from the All Things Considered team. You can sign up at npr.org slash consider this newsletter. It's Consider This. From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly.