Consider This from NPR - What's Trump's Venezuela endgame?

Episode Date: December 17, 2025

The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on Venezuela and its leader.  What is the ultimate goal?President Trump says he’s imposing a ban on all ‘sanctioned’ oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.Venezuela’s government is calling this an ‘outrageous threat’ intended to rob the country of its oil wealth. For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at [e-mail] episode was produced by Tyler Bartlam, with audio engineering from Ted Mebane. It was edited by Courtney Dorning and Christopher Intagliata.Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.  Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

In the last seven days, U.S. actions against Venezuela have escalated as the administration continues to target what it alleges are drugboats. On December 10th, the U.S. seized the skipper. As you probably know, we've just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, a large tanker, very large. Very, very large, and carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil. Then Tuesday night, President Trump declared on truth social, quote, I am ordering a total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela, end quote. The Trump administration has made no secret it wants the country's president, Nicholas Maduro, and his allies, out of office. His day is a number. Nicholas Maduro, as he considers whether or not he wants to continue to be a narco-trafficker, has some decisions to make.

He doesn't want to be around with the United States. Consider this. The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on Venezuela and its leader. What's the ultimate goal? From NPR, I'm Mary Louise Kelly. It's consider this from NPR. Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Venezuela. And this comes after, the U.S. seized a sanctioned oil tanker and President Trump. Trump declared a complete blockade on all sanctioned oil tankers coming in and out of Venezuela. Venezuela's government calls this an outrageous threat intended to rob the country of its oil wealth.

For more, I'm joined by two NPR correspondents following this story. Kerry Kahn in Rio de Janeiro and Greg Myrie here in Washington. Hi, you two. Hi. Hi, Mary Louise. You kick us off, Greg. A blockade on tankers that are on a U.S. sanctions list. What does that actually look like?

How big a deal is it? Yeah, it is a big deal, and this does ratchet up the pressure on Venezuela again. Now, we could certainly expect the U.S. to seize more oil tankers already on this U.S. sanctions list. In fact, the Coast Guard did that just last week with a ship that was off the coast. Now, a monitoring group tanker trackers said recently that around 30 of the 80 oil tankers in or near the waters of Venezuela were on a U.S. sanctions list. So these 30 could be potential targets, but others may not be. Many of these on the sanctions list are considered go ships. They try to disguise their identity and location and are used by countries trying to evade Western sanctions. So this would include Venezuela,

Russia, Iran. Now, if the U.S. blocks or seizes these tankers, it could be a major blow to Venezuela. It's a country hugely dependent on oil exports. A large, fully loaded tanker carries around a hundred million dollars worth of oil. One other point to put to you, the president has also said Venezuela must return, and I'm going to quote, must return all of the oil land and other assets that they previously stole from us. Do we know what he's talking about? Not precisely. This was not clear and a bit confusing. There's been some speculation today. Some of it going all the way back to the 1970s. At that time, Western oil companies were the main player in Venezuela's oil industry. But the country began to nationalize the oil industry under a state-run company. Western companies

were given a greatly reduced role and most eventually left over time. We should note one U.S. oil company, Chevron, is still operating in Venezuela despite all the turmoil in recent years. Chevron has a U.S. government license that exempts it from the U.S. sanctions, and the company says operations are still ongoing. Chevron produces a lot of Venezuela's oil about a quarter to a a third of its daily output, and that overall output is roughly a million barrels a day. Mary Louise, can I just jump in? Sure, please. Trump's focus now on Venezuela's oil was echoed in another post today from his deputy chief

of staff, Stephen Miller. He called the, quote, expropriation, the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property. And like what Greg was saying, it's unclear exactly what Miller is referring to. There were some expropriations of remaining U.S. oil infrastructure in the mid-2000s in Venezuela under then President Hugo Chavez. Maybe he was talking about that, too. Some analysts say this new emphasis could be a new negotiating avenue opening up for Maduro. Maybe the Trump administration is thinking returned some expropriated

assets in exchange for staying where you are now, Maduro. Okay. So we've been talking through what the Trump administration is saying. Carrie, what's the response? What does Venezuela tell us a little bit more about how they're taking this latest American threat? Officially, it's been loud, and as you could probably imagine, harsh and tone and chock full of a nationalistic rally around the flag, defensive posturing. Here's a quick hit, a high-volume retort from Venezuela's defense minister, Vladimir Padernino Lopez. This was this morning on live TV.

He had this cadre of fist-pumping military surrounding officers, and he called the new U.S. threats a clear act of aggression that makes it clear that what the U.S. is trying to do is all about Venezuela's oil and natural resources. He said, we're not intimidated by your taunts and threats. The Attorney General of Venezuela also chimed in. He had a lot to say about Trump's claims that Venezuela stole U.S. land and property. He called that macabre, decadent, and irrational. Carrie, one more to you, which is how this latest

move fits into the bigger picture. We know President Trump, his team, they've made it clear, they want Nicholas Maduro out of office. How does the blockade fit in? Will the blockade help achieve that? That's the huge question right now. You know, Trump tried in his first term to pressure Maduro out. This time, we have the huge military buildup in the Caribbean, ostensibly to combat drug trafficking, all the way to increasing a reward from Maduro's arrest, to designating Maduro and his corrupt officials, a terrorist narco group. Now Trump is going to the heart of the Venezuelan economy. The oil revenues, like Greg said, are huge, nearly 90% of the country's entire revenue generating activity. So will this be the final straw and create the economic

hardship to, you know, break the backs of the Venezuelans who will take to the streets? I asked a political scientist, Javier Cordales, that. He's a close Venezuela watcher at Amherst, and he says He just doesn't think so. It'll be very hard to get an uprising because Venezuela society has been significantly repressed to the point where folks are very wounded. They're wounded. They're exhausted from this long economic hardship, scarcities, and long lines. We heard that a lot today on the street of Caracas.

We spoke with many, and they said they're just trying to take the heightened tensions as calmly as possible right now. Greg, about a minute left, but just remind us, does the U.S. have enough troops in place if they wanted to go ahead with a full-scale invasion? Well, that would really depend on the mission. The U.S. has at least a dozen warships in the region, including the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier. Altogether, the U.S. was around 15,000 troops at sea and on land. So that's far more firepower than you'd need, just to block an oil tanker or even attack these suspected drug trafficking boats. In addition, the U.S. could certainly carry out sustained air strikes against Venezuela, if that's the plan. Now, if Trump is considering

a ground invasion, then the U.S. would need a significant force, perhaps more, in terms of ground troops that are there right now. We should stress that Trump has been intentionally vague about military action. He's been willing to use air strikes in other places, but he's been very reluctant to send U.S. ground troops in either his first term or so far. This term, that's been a red line for him. Redline, indeed. NPR's Greg Myrie in Washington and Kerry Con in Rio de Janeiro. Thanks, you too. You're welcome. This episode was produced by Tyler Bartlam with audio engineering from Ted Mebain.

It was edited by Courtney Dorney and Christopher Intaliata. Our executive producer is Sammy Yenigan. It's considered this from NPR. I'm Mary Louise Kelly.