Consider This from NPR - Will The U.S. Meet Its July 4 Vaccination Goal? Your State May Already Have

Episode Date: June 17, 2021

Last month, President Biden laid out an ambitious goal: to get 70% of adults in the U.S. at least one vaccine dose by July 4. With less than three weeks to go, that goal may too ambitious, Harvard epidemiologist Bill Hanage tells NPR, and some states may see localized outbreaks this year. Still — nearly two dozen states have already exceeded the 70% threshold. Many are clustered in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, while states with the lowest rates are largely in the South and Southwest. But there is one exception: New Mexico — where some counties report vaccination rates as high as 90%. NPR's Kirk Siegler explains why. In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment that will help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at [e-mail]. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

The U.S., far and away, leads the world in pandemic deaths. The official count is now more than 600,000. We reached that milestone this week. But also this week, right here in the world's hardest-hit country, the two hardest-hit states reopened. Thumb up. Left center field. Way back there. Listen to the roar! You are hearing 52,000 maskless fans at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, where I am. A sold-out crowd watched the home team win on reopening day, as California lifted most COVID restrictions. California made the move after reaching the point where 70 percent of

its adult population had at least one shot of the vaccine. And in New York, a huge celebration tonight across New York State, fireworks lighting up the night. Governor Andrew Cuomo said New York also reached the 70 percent milestone, 70 percent of adults with at least one shot. It is the national goal and we hit it ahead of schedule. Now, that 70 percent goal, of course, was set by President Biden for the entire country by July 4th. Over a dozen states, including New York and California, are already there. On the other hand, I think that it's important to remember that there are going to be some people who are not vaccinated. And we want to be able to protect them for as long as possible

until we get vaccination levels really high. Harvard epidemiologist Bill Hanage told NPR this week that America's progress is worth celebrating. But there are still plenty of people in America who live in places without high levels of vaccination, many of them in communities disproportionately impacted by the pandemic. Yeah, the 70 percent mark is just a sort of a line in the sand. And it's certainly going to get there in a lot of places. But the country as a whole, it's going to be a bit tough to get there. Consider this. America is increasingly returning to pre-pandemic life, but the 70% threshold for

the whole country by July 4th is looking more and more like a long shot. From NPR, I'm Elsa Chang. It's Thursday, June 17th. comes from Wise, the app for doing things in other currencies. Send, spend, or receive money internationally, and always get the real-time mid-market exchange rate with no hidden fees. Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com. T's and C's apply. An internal investigation found that a cop with the California Highway Patrol sexually harassed 21 women, but those findings were kept secret until a new state transparency law passed. We dug through hours of tapes to find out what happens to officers who cross the line. Listen to On Our Watch, a podcast from NPR and KQED.

It's Consider This from NPR. According to the latest federal data, more than a dozen states and the District of Columbia have reached or surpassed the threshold of 70 percent of adults with at least one shot. The nation's most vaccinated state is Vermont. I'm lifting all remaining state pandemic restrictions and state of emergency will formally end at midnight. Governor Phil Scott had promised that when Vermont reached 80 percent of people with at least one shot, he would lift restrictions across the state. And that happened this week. In fact, as of this moment that we are recording this, Vermont has 84 percent of adults with at least one shot. We're able to remove restrictions because there's no longer needed

to prevent the surge in COVID hospitalizations or deaths we've been concerned about. Now, the only COVID measures required in Vermont are some federal rules, like masking is still required on public transportation. As for the other 70% plus states, many of them are clustered in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, but other states are nowhere close to 70%. Take the South, for example, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana. In all of those places, less than half the adult population has got at least one shot. We've talked before about why that is, from very real discrepancies in vaccine access to political affiliation to the spread of vaccine-related misinformation. But the bottom line is that the U.S. is probably not going to reach the goals set by President Biden last month. That is to get 70 percent of all adults in the country at least one shot by July 4th.

We're less than three weeks away from that deadline. I think it's pretty unlikely that the country as a whole is going to reach that goal. I think it's going to get very close. That's Harvard epidemiologist Bill Hanage again. To get to the 70 percent mark, the U.S. would have to vaccinate about 600,000 people each day until July 4th. The pace right now is below 500,000 people each day until July 4th. The pace right now is below 500,000. I mean, it's a reasonable amount of immunity in the population, and it's great. And we'd much rather have 70% than 60%. But on the other hand, 80%, 90% would still be better.

It's also important to note that there is nothing scientifically significant about 70%. It's not any kind of threshold for, say, herd immunity, this phrase that you've heard less and less as the year has gone by, because scientists haven't even established what herd immunity means in terms of COVID-19. Instead, it's looking more and more like the U.S. will wind up with something like a patchwork pandemic, where some places have very high rates of vaccination and others don't. I mean, I and a lot of my colleagues

are especially watching the South because you'll recall the South had a surge in the Sun Belt over last summer. And the South has got quite patchy vaccination. There are some counties with a lot, there are some counties with less. And so that's going to give us a lot of information and a lot of stuff to help understand what we can expect towards the fall and the winter of this year. So yeah, public health experts will want to keep an eye on the South and Southwest, where states with the lowest vaccination rates in the country are clustered.

But there is one exception. In New Mexico, health officials now say some counties are close to 90 percent vaccinated. Listen to that. 90 percent. How did New Mexico do this? NPR's Kirk Sigler reports from Albuquerque. Shoppers and diners are slowly returning to Albuquerque's trendy Knob Hill neighborhood. Absolutely. Yeah. Hopeful. Mike and Kathy Holmberg of Arizona are on their first visit back to New Mexico since the start of the pandemic. They typically spend summers here in the mountains where it's cooler.

Right now, it looks to me like New Mexico is actually a little more cautious than Arizona. You see a lot of most people are wearing masks. Most businesses are requiring it. But Arizona is a lot more wide open. Restaurants on this strip still require masks. You have to give your name and number for contact tracing, and there are capacity limits for businesses. It still feels like the middle of the pandemic, and the Holmbergs, who are fully vaccinated, say they feel safer here. Neighboring Arizona is still near the top in the nation for cases per capita, but closer to the bottom when it comes to vaccinations. Well, and they have a Democratic governor here and we have a Republican.

From the beginning, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, who had previously been the state health secretary, enacted far more restrictive public health orders than surrounding red state governors. The lockdown rules won't get lifted here until after 60 percent of the population is vaccinated. They're hoping by the end of the month. We have been really cautious in the state to make sure we really contain this virus. Dr. Tracy Collins is the current secretary of the New Mexico Department of Health. I think that we are aware of what it takes to save the state, and that's what we're doing. About 40 percent of New Mexicans are on Medicaid, and a large chunk of the population is considered vulnerable due to pre-existing health issues.

But the flip side of that is that the state has long invested in its public health system. Collins says they adapted and responded to COVID quickly with efficient testing. And when the vaccines came online, there was only one place to sign up. That eliminated the early confusion and chaos we saw in so many other states. There was a lot of messaging to help people understand the importance of this vaccine as finally our way of getting back to something that seems normal after having gone through a year of just, you know, torment. Nationally, public health experts also credit New Mexico's success to its prioritizing getting the vaccine out to the most vulnerable, often tribal and rural communities. You drive east of Albuquerque

and the higher vaccination numbers do go down some when you get into the country. But the numbers aren't nearly as low as rural America writ large. Here in Guadalupe County, population 3,500, not including the prison, close to 70% of the adult population has had at least one shot. The county skews older, sicker, and some folks in the more remote areas still rely on poorly ventilated wood stoves for heat. The only place to get the vaccine is from the small, 10-bed county hospital. Christina Campos is the administrator here. When we led the vaccine effort, I think that was part that helped,

that they trust us to take good care of them. And we really push the vaccines a lot. Trust in institutions, the government hospital here, is high. Campos says people don't see government as overreaching. And that's a big part of why New Mexico has weathered the pandemic better than other states, she says. Generally, people took the virus threat more seriously. This area is an incredibly culturally conservative area, but Democrat. It's just very different from many other states. Of course, they also took it seriously because they were hit hard, and still are.

In Guadalupe County, there's been an outbreak after recent Mother's Day and Cinco de Mayo celebrations. It's been very hard for women. One morning before work, Erlinda Sayes brought in her 18-year-old son Ruben to get his booster shot. Her teen daughters are home with the virus. Her husband was wary of them getting the vaccine at first. They got the virus from their grandparents, who also aren't vaccinated. Ruben looks relieved after his second jab of Moderna. My grandpa, he's home, but he's still sick. And my grandma's in the hospital.

She ain't doing good. Grandma was just transferred to Albuquerque. Erlinda is wringing her hands. She's a supervisor at a long-term care facility, so she's been vaccinated since February. So I got the vaccine to make sure to protect the seniors and my kids, but obviously it's not enough. Just like in most other states, vaccination rates in New Mexico have started plateauing lately, and health leaders here told me they're frustrated to see outbreaks

like this when there's a readily accessible, free prevention tool right here. Jason Mitchell is the chief medical officer at Presbyterian, the largest hospital system in New Mexico. I'm concerned that a single another person will get COVID and die from COVID, right? We now have a essentially preventable disease. And for those that are vaccinated, the pandemic is over. And for those that are not vaccinated, it's still raging. Health officials are hopeful that a newly launched state lottery will encourage more people to get shots in their arms. Many businesses are also eager for the state to fully reopen. On Central Avenue in Albuquerque's Knob Hill, the economic toll of this pandemic is real. We have quite a few vacancies. If you walk up and down, there's quite a few.

And they're not being taken. Nobody's moving in. Anthony Chavez owns First Choice Consignment and Decor. Kelly's brew pub next door to him is now permanently closed. He used to rely on spillover customers from that bar and another shuttered restaurant across the street. Only the flower shop is flourishing. Tough is not the word. I mean, I'm at the point of, do I want to keep the business or sell my home at this point? As a business owner, Chavez has barely survived New Mexico's efforts to keep the virus contained. He hopes the state's high vaccination rate means customers return soon.

His unemployment runs out in July. That is NPR's Kirk Sigler. It's Consider This from NPR. I'm Elsa Chang.