Daybreak - India’s food inflation has layers. The onion is only the first

Episode Date: October 14, 2026

On October 12, government data showed India’s food inflation rose to 7.7% in September, led by onion prices that more than doubled from a year earlier. Back in May, onion growers in Nashik wore garlands of onions and tried to block the Mumbai–Agra highway because prices had fallen to ₹4 to ₹6 a kilo. The government says India grew almost as many onions as the year before, and it kept a stockpile for exactly this kind of spike. Prices rose anyway, and rural households are feeling it most. Why is it so hard to keep India’s kitchen affordable?Tune in.India’s LPG success story runs on a two-day buffer, March 15, 2026, 11 minutes. ListenIndia solved the wrong oil problem first, 31 Jul 2026, ListenThe great Indian sugar trap: how a decade of surplus left India with nothing to spare , 28 Aug 2026, ListenThis episode is edited by Arnav PrakashDaybreak is produced from the newsroom of The Ken, India’s first subscriber-only business news platform. Subscribe for more exclusive, deeply-reported, and analytical business stories.

On the 26th of May, onion farmers in Maharashtra's Nasak district gathered on the Mumbai-Agra highway. Some wore garlands made of onions. They tried to block the traffic, protesting because the onions that they had spent months growing was selling just for $4 to $6 a kilo. They wanted the government to guarantee them a better price,

saying what they were earning was not enough to recover their costs. Less than five months later now, onions are driving India's food inflation. Data released on the 12th of October on Monday showed that food inflation rose 7.7% in September up from about 6% in August. Onion prices were more than twice as high as a year earlier. Ginger up by nearly 63% and garlic almost 55%. If you look at just a year ago, food prices were falling,

which is a part of why this year's rise also looks so steep. Even so, food inflation has climbed every single month this year, and rural households are taking the hottest hit with food inflation in villages above 8%. Plus, the festive season is likely to add to the pressure as the demand picks up. Other things are adding to it as well. Chrysill, the Global Insights Driven Analytics Company, points to tight stocks from the spring ruby crop and to a late arrival of fresh kharif onions after a very dry June. As we know, the monsoon ended well below normal, and staples and edible oils have also become dearer.

We have talked about this on previous episodes of daybreak that I will link to the show notes of this one. So, the onions that we are buying from shops right now come from that same spring harvest, the one that farmers were selling in May. And by the government's own estimate, India grew almost as much onions in the crop year that ended in June as the year before. The government also keeps an onion stockpile for example. exactly this kind of a price rise. It began buying in mid-May during the glut and then started selling those onions at 35 rupees a kilo in late August.

Onion prices still jumped from about 49% in August to 108% in September. So, here's the update. Food inflation is back with a bang. And the onion may be the clearest way to understand why it is so hard to keep India's kitchen affordable. Welcome to Daybreak, a business podcast. from the Ken. I'm your host, Nick Dha Sharma, and I don't chase the news cycle. Instead, every day of the week, my colleague Rachel Vargiz and I will come to you with one business story that's worth understanding

and worth your time. Today is Thursday, the 15th of October. India's onion year runs on two main harvest. The rabbi crop, which is harvested between March and May, and is stored and carries the market through the summer. Prices tend to rise between September and December when those stocks are nearly used up and the Karif crop has not reached the market yet. This year, that gap opened wider than usual. Chrysler says that Rabi's stocks were tight after a 5 to 6% fall in production, even though the government's estimate for the full year barely moved. June rainfall was also 40% below normal, which delayed Karif planting and pushed back fresh arrivals. Part of the reason goes back to that highway in May. Farmers had said that the prices on offer would not

even cover their input costs and loan repayments, and a farmer under that kind of pressure can rarely afford to keep onions in storage for months. Consumer Affairs Secretary Nidhi had also said that a part of the rabbi crop was damaged by untimely rain at harvest season. The government did see the squeeze coming. When it began releasing buffer onions in August, it said that the aim was to moderate seasonal price pressures. But it had set its buffer target at 2 lakh tons, citing a comfortable production outlook. And by late August, it had bought about 1.2 lakh tons of onions. Now, the thing is, getting those onions to shoppers also takes time. In the first 10 days of subsidized sales, about 4,000 tons were sold across 17 cities, and Kari said that prices

had dipped slightly. Now, here's the thing about a buffer this size. It can ease prices where it arrives, while supply keeps tightening everywhere else. There is also a harder balance to strike. The government has to buy when prices are low and sell when they rise without hurting the farmers it bought them from. When the release was announced in August, the average price in Lasselgau fell by about $450 a quintal and growers were worried about what that would do to their earnings.

Relief should come as the new crop arrives. Chryssel expects prices to ease towards the end of this month, October, though Karif onions typically arrive in larger volumes in November and December. Until then, the onion shows how a country can grow enough of a crop over year and still struggle to keep it affordable in a particular month. And onions are not the only thing in the kitchen getting more expensive. So why is keeping food affordable so difficult? More on that in the next segment.

One way to see how these price increases add up is to look at the cost of a meal. Every month, Chrysler calculates the cost of cooking a basic thali at home. In September, a vegetarian thali cost $30.80 pisa, up from about $28.10 per se a year earlier. A non-vegetarian thali rose to $59.50 pisa from $56. That is a 10% increase for the vegetarian meal and 6% for the non-vegetarian one. Experts say that this is not just because of higher onion prices, but also cooking oil, rice and LPG prices. Some of the jump in the inflation rate is down to the comparison. Food inflation was much lower a year ago, which makes this year's annual increase look steeper. But that statistical

effect does not change what a family pays today. There are pressures on the supply side as well. Garlic production in Rajasthan is estimated at only about 60% of last year's level. Economists have also warned that crops such as tour and soybean are vulnerable where poor rainfall coincides with limited irrigation. The weak monsoon raises concerns about future supplies though the impact will

vary crop by crop and region by region. And global markets add another layer. Vegetable oil prices rose 12% year-on-year in September, while LPG prices were 10% higher. The government cut import duties on major edible oils in late September to help

moderate the prices. But international prices, geopolitical uncertainty, and a weaker rupee can still limit how much relief such a cut can deliver. Brent crude also remained above $100 a barrel amid the US-Iran war, adding to energy cost pressures. Also, the burden is uneven. Rural food inflation was 8.06% in September against the 7.18% in cities. And food accounts for about 47% percent. of rural household consumption expenditure compared with the 40% in urban India. A rise in food prices, therefore, takes up a larger share of rural budgets. For landless agricultural workers, it gets even worse. Higher food prices can be particularly difficult for them because they may not be able to

benefit directly from higher prices for crops that they are not even selling. So, what can the government do? The issue is that the government's tool work on one food at a time. It has released onion stocks and cut oil duties. At the start of the September, in fact, its wheat and rice reserves held nearly three times what its own rules require. That gives it room on grain, but still no direct fix for a shortage of onions or a jump in global oil prices.

But long-term improvements in storage and distribution can help reduce losses and move food to where it is needed, which brings us back to the onion. On paper, India grew enough of onions this year and the government had a buffer ready. Prices still more than doubled. In the coming months, farmers in Nashik will plant next year's rabbi crop after a monsoon that ended well below normal. Whether India's kitchen is easier to afford next autumn may depend on whether the system gives them a reason to store their onions in May and get those onions to shoppers when the lean months come back. Daybreak is produced from the newsroom of the Ken

India's first subscriber-focused business news platform. What you're listening to is just a small sample of a subscriber-only offerings and a full subscription unlocks daily long-form feature stories, newsletters and podcasts. Head to the Ken.com and click on the red subscribe button on the top of the website. Today's episode was hosted and produced by Snigda Sharma

and edited by Arna Prakash.