Daybreak - Ola’s investors want out. Bhavish Aggarwal won’t let go

Episode Date: October 29, 2025

Ola’s ride-hailing business is losing speed. Its market share has dropped from 45% in 2018 to around a quarter today and investors are running out of patience. Some even explored a merger with Rapido in late 2024 but the talks collapsed. Bhavish Aggarwal’s focus on Ola Electric and his reluctance to sell have kept the cab business in limbo. Leadership churn, shrinking cash reserves, and a collapsing valuation have added to the strain. So why can’t investors leave and why is Aggarwal refusing to let go?Tune in.Daybreak is produced from the newsroom of The Ken, India’s first subscriber-only business news platform. Subscribe for more exclusive, deeply-reported, and analytical business stories.

Hi, this is Rohan Dharma Kumar. If you've heard any of the Ken's podcasts, you've probably heard me, my interruptions, my analogies, and my contrarian takes on most topics. And you might rightly be wondering why am I interrupting this episode too. It's for a special announcement. For the last few months, I and Sita Raman Ganeshan, my colleague and the Ken's deputy editor, have been working on an ambitious new podcast. It's called Intermission.

We want to tell the secret sauce stories of India's greatest companies. Stories of how they were born, how they fought to survive, how they build their organizations and culture, how they manage to innovate and thrive over decades, and most importantly, how they're poised today. To do that, Sita and I have been reading books, poring over reports, going through financial statements, digging up archives, and talking to dozens of people. And if that wasn't enough, we also decided to throw in video into the mix. Yes, you heard that right. Intermission has also had to find its footing in the world of multi-camera shoots in professional studios, laborious editing, and extensive post-production.

Sita and I are still reeling from the intensity of our first studio recording. Intermission launches on March 23rd. To get an alert as soon as we release our first episode, please follow Intermission on Spotify and Apple Podcasts or subscribe to the Ken's YouTube channel. You can find all of the links at the ken.com slash I am. With that, back to your episode. For months now, a quiet conversation has been circulating among Ola's investors.

And no, it's not about profits or expansion plans or even the electric dreams of its founder, Bhawajagra. The question is far simpler and far more serious. What is going to happen to OLA's core ride-hailing business now? Not long ago, OLA defined urban mobility in India. It was not just an app. It was a symbol of a country that was learning to move faster, digitally and literally. But that story has now lost momentum.

In 2018, Ola's market share stood around 45%. Today, it is closer to 25%. Its valuation has collapsed by four-fifths, and the investors who helped build its rise are now exploring how to get out, or at least how to limit their losses. Some even approached rival Rapido last year to discuss a potential merger. The talks, as far as we know, went nowhere. Not because the idea did not make sense,

but because the founder did not want it to. You see, Bhaavish Agarwal's focus has shifted elsewhere. To Ola Electric, the electric vehicle arm that now consumes most of his attention, money and energy. Meanwhile, Ola's ride-haling arm, once its flagship, is shrinking, leaderless, and dependent on heavy discounts just to hold on to users. So, today, we are going to look at how a company that once redefined mobility is now struggling to find its own direction. and more importantly, whether Ola's investors can find the exit door before the founder does. Welcome to Daybreak, a business podcast from the Ken.

I'm your host, Nikaa Sharma, and I don't chase the news cycle. Instead, every day of the week, my colleague Rachel Vargis and I will come to you with one business story that is worth understanding and worth your time. Today is Tuesday, the 28th of October. Start with the investors. Back in 2020, Bhawe Shagarwal offered exits. partial or full to some of OLA's earliest backers, Tiger Global, Z-47 and a dozen angel investors were among them. But not everybody took the deal. And now many of them are stuck. And that is because shareholder agreements in startups come with strict clauses. Lead investors are usually

promised exits within five to seven years, either through an IPO, a buyback, or a secondary sale. If that doesn't happen, they, they can push a forced exit, often through what is called drag-along rides. Agarwal did execute a buyback during a secondary sale in 2021. But many early investors like Steadview Capital, DST Global and Vanguard have been waiting since 2015 for their return. And with every passing year, the conditions for a good exit have only gotten worse. When Ola was preparing for its IPO in 2021,

Agarwal pitched it as a super app, rides payments to Ola money, food delivery via all of foods, loans and even its own maps. To put it simply, it was looking at a total addressable market of $250 billion. And, of course, that pitch worked. Warburg-Pinkus, Temasek and Nuvama came in expecting a listing in six to eight months. At the time, OLA Cabs was the third most downloaded ride-haling app globally with operations in the UK, Australia and New Zealand. But that IPO never arrived. And by 2023, the company's valuation had cratered.

Revenues fell from over $2,800 crore rupees in the financial year 2020 to $2,200 in financial year 2024. And despite a small positive beta in 23 and 24, analysts are extremely. expecting losses again this year. Meanwhile, S&P Global has already flagged its concerns. OLA's cash reserves could quickly erode if the company keeps using discounts to hold market share. So, investors, frustrated, began looking for options. Last October, some even floated the idea of a merger with Rappato. But according to insiders who spoke to my colleague Supratanapam, Agarwal refused.

He wanted to stabilize Ola Electric first. the EV arm that has seen billions of dollars in investment from Future Factory to the Ola-Sell giga-factory. It is where his real ambitions lie and arguably his real equity lies. In contrast, insiders say that he has neither the bandwidth nor the money to take the right-hailing company public right now. The plan, they say, is to maintain the status quo. But as SNP Global put it, maintaining the status quo could burn through. cash fast. So for a company that was once valued in the billions, simply staying afloat has become the new goal. But survival was never supposed to be the benchmark. More on this in the next segment.

The failed Rapido talks were not just a business story. They were a symptom. Because even if Rappado had agreed, insiders say that the deal would have been redundant. And here's the reason why. Many of OLA's own drivers already use Rappado. And this is not just a business where data gives you a competitive edge. It is about availability and price. So while investors hoped for a merger, Bhawe Shagarwal was looking elsewhere. His attention, like I told you earlier,

and much of Ola's talent as well had moved to Ola Electric and his AI company Crotrim. Former executives described to the ken how Ola Cab's employees, from developers, engineers and even managers were reassigned to Ola Electric. At times, Ola Caps even bought scooters from Ola Electric to prop up its sales, 8,200 units by December 2023. Meanwhile, Ola's own performance continued to decline.

By mid-20205, the company's headcount had dropped by a third, from 6,000 employees to fewer than 4,000. Its leadership churned constantly. CEO, Haman Bakshi, joined in January 2024 and resigned by April. Other senior executives from its CFO to its CTO left soon after. And as one investor put it, it is expensive to hire senior talent who won't even stay a year. OLA lacks leadership, culture and continuity. Rapid O, on the other hand, surged ahead, boasting of nearly 4 million monthly active drivers as of August 2025

compared to Ola's fewer than 2 million. And yet, Agarwal remains firmly in control. Ola, Ola Electric and Crotrim aren't connected by a parent holding company. They are connected by one person which is him. Last year, he moved OLA Maps, a tool that saved the company over 100 crore rupees annually from A&I Technologies to Crotrim just for 40 crore rupees. He also acquired the rights to the OLA brand itself.

raising concerns among shareholders who now worry about losing royalty income. For investors, this seems to be a lose-lose situation. They cannot force a sale, they cannot push for an IPO, and with the company's valuation and trust both in decline, raising new capital looks like nearly impossible. One investor told again that Agarwal has maybe $100 million in equity left in Ola consumer. And that is nothing compared to what he holds in election. and Crutrim. So where do you think his focus is going to be? In May 2025, S&P Global

downgraded OLA's outlook from stable to negative. The company says that it is exploring new revenue streams, warehouse as a service, AI shopping tools and payments. But few believe that these can replace the core business that it is losing. For now, OLA consumer exists, but barely. The brand that once powered India's mobility revolution has become a shell of its former self. As one former executive summed it up, OLA consumer is too big to be ignored and too broken to be saved. Daybreak is produced from the newsroom of the Ken, India's first subscriber-focused business news platform. What you're listening to is just a small sample of a subscriber-only offerings and a full subscription offers daily, long-form feature stories, newsletters and a whole bunch of premium podcasts.

subscribe, head to the can.com and click on the red subscribe button on the top of the website. Today's episode was hosted and produced by my colleague, Snitha Sharma, and edited by Rajiv Sien.