Daybreak - The price drop in weight-loss drugs Indian pharma can’t handle

Episode Date: August 25, 2025

Even though GLP-1 drugs have helped nearly 20 million people shed weight across the world since 2021, Indians had to wait until 2025 to get in on the action legally.To be fair, the country wasn’t entirely in the dark. Semaglutide—the molecule behind pharma giant Novo Nordisk’s blockbuster drugs Ozempic and Wegovy—was already available for diabetes treatment. But this March, Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (which uses a different molecule, tirzepatide) entered the market. In July, Wegovy arrived. And suddenly, India went from “we know GLP-1” to “we want the skinny shot”.Since then, the GLP-1 market in India—across diabetes and weight loss—has grown from Rs 531 crore to Rs 628 crore. And now, depending on the vantage point, things are about to get much bigger. And much cheaper.And naturally, pretty much every major Pharma major wants in on the action. Tune in. Do you work in IT? Take our surveyWant to join The Ken's team? Fill this form. 

Hi, this is Rohan Dharma Kumar. If you've heard any of the Ken's podcasts, you've probably heard me, my interruptions, my analogies, and my contrarian takes on most topics. And you might rightly be wondering why am I interrupting this episode too. It's for a special announcement. For the last few months, I and Sita Raman Ganeshan, my colleague and the Ken's deputy editor, have been working on an ambitious new podcast. It's called Intermission.

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and it's helped nearly 20 million people shed their way to cross the world since 2021. If you are thinking of Ozempic, you are spot on. Ever since the diabetes drug gained popularity for its weight loss properties, markets around the world just can't get enough. And that includes India. Up until last year, it was legally only available for diabetes treatment. And on the black market, for well, other use cases.

It became widely available and legally so in 2025, which is exactly when these drugs steadily began making their way into India. This March, Monjaro, another popular weight loss drug entered the Indian market. July saw the arrival of V-Go-Vee. Just like that, the market in India for this particular category of weight loss drugs also referred to as GLP-1 drugs, ballooned by almost 100 crore. And now, GLP-1 drugs are coming to India in a much bigger and much cheaper way.

You see, in March 2026, semaglutide will go off patent. And that's in India and almost 90 other markets, including Canada, China, Brazil and Saudi Arabia. As other pharma companies rush to recreate the formula, these drugs will see an 85 to 90% price drop. The biosimilar business is exactly what's going to profit the most from this patent expiration. Biosimilars, by the way, are basically products that are very similar to an already approved original medicine. The 85 to 90% drop is going to try to. translate into a treatment that costs anywhere from between $10,000 to $20,000 a month today to cost as little as $2,500, which means it'll now be within reach for millions of Indians.

The opportunity is tremendous. According to estimates, if only 5% of India's over 100 million eligible patients buy semi-glotide at the lowest available price, we could be looking at a $2 billion market in the country by 2030. Of course, Indian pharma companies are lining up. From Dr. Reddy's to Sipla, everybody wants a piece. Welcome to Daybreak, a business podcast from the Ken. I'm your host Rahal Philippos and I don't chase the news cycle.

Instead, every day of the week, my colleagues, Nikda Sharma and I will come to you with one business story that is worth understanding and worth your time. Today is Tuesday, the 26th of August. About 14 companies have already registered with a rest of, regulatory, Drug's Controller General of India or DCGIGI to make semaglutide in India. This includes the likes of Dr. Reddy's, Torrin Pharma, Zydis, Sun Pharma, Natco, and more.

It won't be long before other companies follow their lead. You see, India's pharma market is highly fragmented. It's made up of clusters of Dr. Farmer networks. That means even smaller players will get a piece of the post-patent semaglutide pie. Basically, the race is on. At the moment, semaglutide dominates the Indian weight loss market among other obesity drugs. It commands more than half of the market share by value. This was exactly what prompted Novo Nordisk, the parent company of Vigovi, to act early.

They launched Vigovie in India a year earlier than planned, in an attempt to squeeze the most out of a competitive market before its patent expired. But its high prices meant that its reach was limited to only 0.1% of the total addressable market. Harshad Lalwani, founder and CEO of Hamsa Biotech, told us that consumers of weight loss drugs in India currently come from the upper echelons of society. Hamsa is currently in the pre-trial stages of developing a novel oral GLP1 compound as a competitor to Eli Lilly's or for Glypron weight loss bill. He says that the demand hasn't trickled down to the middle class yet,

because these drugs are still expensive, and the awareness primarily comes from the West. Okay, quick science lesson before we move on. GLP1 is basically short for glucagon-like peptide 1. This is a naturally occurring hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and appetite. Now, semaglutide is a synthetic molecule that mimics the functions of GLP1, but ensures relatively more long-term effects. It reduces appetite, slows digestion,

and maintains insulin and glucagon levels in the body. Hence, effectively triggering weight loss. Great. Now, with that out of the way, let's dive right back in. The biggest issue for Indian pharma companies attempting to enter the GLP1 race used to be pricing. Now, with the patent expiration and an expected rate of 2,500, to $4,000

rupees per treatment, things have changed dramatically. However, the excitement and preparation may be slightly premature. We spoke to

Bhabesh Panegrahi, a biofama consultant with 25 plus years of experience in pharmaceutical commercial strategy. He told us that India is currently

not positioned to meet the production requirements for complex peptides like semaglutide. The data backs him up on this.

In 2016, 80% of our active pharmaceutical ingredients came from China. Nine years later, that figure is still 70%. Also building production capacity for such complex compounds takes time. Ensuring purity, consistency and scale is a feat of biotechnical engineering. And it looks like India may not yet be ready to address the surging demand. But the opportunity is too good to pass up.

Especially because JLP 1 is becoming more than just a weight loss. drug. It can multitask like nobody's business. And pharma companies just can't get enough of it. More in the next segment. As some of you already know, I also host and introduce the Ken's podcast on the future of careers and workplaces. It's called 90,000 hours and it's available on the Ken app and on Apple Podcasts. I'm currently working on a new episode about how India's IT services industry is changing, from how companies hire, to how performance is measured, to how AI is reshaping roles. And I want to hear from you. If you work in IT, please could you take a few minutes to fill out our quick and confidential survey? Your responses will directly help shape this episode.

You'll find the survey link in the show notes below. And with that, let's get back to the episode. Over the last few months, GLP1 has been well on its way to becoming much more than just a weight loss drug. Cardiac issues, pre-diabetic health and even eternal youth. You name it and there is a study proving GLP drugs connection to it. Eli Lilly, Monjarro's parent company, has conducted studies on its effectiveness in preventing heart attacks and strokes. Another study from this July shows how adults

with type 2 diabetes and obesity using GLP1 drugs showed lower risk of dementia and strokes. It's starting to look like it's only a matter of time before these drugs are marketed as the go-to silver bullets for anti-aging and longevity. So, sounds pretty exciting, right? Of course, there is a flip side to it. Basically, GLP1 drugs come with a slew of side effects.

That includes nausea, vomiting, pancreatitis and muscle mass loss among others. So it's no surprise that doctors aren't exactly rushing to prescribe them, especially when safer, though less potent alternatives, do exist. But you see, the side effects are also an opportunity. In fact, even as we speak, Eli Lilly and Novo, are busy building drug portfolios to address the side effects of JLP1 drugs. And they're also looking to slash prices next year onwards. Sharply reducing prices is the more pharma giants have made before.

It allows them to offer reduced prices in other markets when competition increases while maintaining their higher margins in the US. Even better, it also ends up allowing biosimilars to carve out their own share in the market. Does this mean that the per unit profitability is going down for everyone in this post-patent expiration market? Yes. But you see, the volumes go up. And that's what this new game is all about.

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Today's episode was hosted by Rahil Filippo's and edited by Rajiv Sien.