Daybreak - What happens when you put Indian business on a 2x2?

Episode Date: October 15, 2026

In this Daybreak x Two by Two crossover, host Snigdha Sharna turns the tables on Praveen Gopal Krishnan to look beyond individual companies and industries, and at the bigger patterns connecting them. From duopolies under attack and startups struggling to justify their valuations, to the rules regulators are rewriting, AI’s impact on jobs, and how Indians are changing the way they live, we explore what these stories reveal about where Indian business is headed.Which old assumptions are breaking down? Who stands to win or lose? And what should we be watching next?As The Ken's Two by Two wraps up its second season, we connect the dots and look ahead to Season 3.

Hello, dear listeners. As you know on this podcast, most of the time we pick one business story every morning and we try to make sense of it before your day begins. And I know because this is true for me as the host as well, some of those stories stay with us much longer. My colleague Praveen Gopalakishnan or PGK as we call him at the Ken has a show exactly for this. It is called two by two and once a week he takes one big Indian business story, sits with it, for an hour or more sometimes and lays it all out on a 2x2 matrix. It's like having a very sharp friend explained to you who is winning, who is losing and why it matters to us.

At the end of every episode, you come out thinking about the whole market in a very different way. This week, 2x2 wrapped up its second season after more than 100 episodes. And for the finale, I took the host's share and turned the questions on to PGK. Quick Commerce, UPI, Indian IT, AI, careers have all come up on both of our shows. So I asked him to connect the dots and tell us what is really going on underneath at all. Think of today's episode as a crossover of Daybreak and Two by Two. So here's the conversation. Enjoy. Hi, I'm Snigda and you may know my voice from Daybreak, the Ken's Daily podcast.

Two by Two Here has been on air since July 24. two seasons, more than 100 episodes. Every week you take one Indian business story and then you put it on a two by two matrix. And this is season two finale. And the show is going to take a break before season three starts in November. PGK, thoughts, feelings.

First of all, I'm wondering how many people who started listening to this episode heard your voice in the beginning. And they were like, what did I church? Did I get into the right podcast? What's going on here? Yeah, we decided to do a season finale. We don't generally do season finales at two by two.

I think we've been doing it continuously. I went back and checked. So it was like one episode after another episode after another episode. I think at the end of the first year, we did like a recap. And then after that, after the 100th episode, we did like a special episode. But it's literally been a constant treadmill. So season two just started without a break. Season two just started without a break.

So I thought that maybe I can take a slight break. It's not going to be a long break. It's just going to be like a few. weeks, maybe like three, four weeks max. I think you deserve it. Yeah, even I think so too. That's what I get really, really nervous when I take breaks, especially on podcasts or newsletters because I feel like everybody is going to forget me.

I really doubt it, it's very nice of you to say. But you have been doing daybreak for how long now? Almost four years now? Four years. Have you ever taken a break? No. Wow. You have not taken a single season break.

Do you have a season at all? No, we don't have seasons. It's a daily news podcast. So the show has to go on every day. Now my imposter syndrome is getting worse now. I'm sitting with you. You're doing this for four years continuously. Every episode and here I am taking a three week break.

No, PGA, but you really deserve this. So PGK, I listen to both of the seasons, multiple episodes from each one of them. And very interestingly, some stories keep coming up again and again. Some themes keep coming up. And this I notice even on my own podcast daybreak, right? Because we cover daily news, we cover the same companies. The most interesting one I found was how duopolis are under attack. Then there was another theme that emerged,

which was listed companies that keep changing direction. Then you have your old companies like HUL, Bejorge Finance, which are either reinventing themselves or completely failing to do that. Also, there's the question of who gets to fund these companies. Then you have the regulators, the whole thing that's happening with UPI and merchants having to pay right now. Regulators stepping in in the middle of the game and changing the rules. Then of course there's AI, you know, and how careers are changing, what jobs are getting affected. And also very fascinating, a new kind of urban Indian who's emerging from all of this.

So I want to go over each of these with you through this episode. The pressure is really high, Snigda, because you've found all the themes that I'm interested. in. And I find I missed. So normally you're the one who asks questions, but today we are flipping the table. So today, I want to start the episode by asking you a question about 2 by 2 itself. If you had to put a 2 by 2 matrix on 2 by 2, your podcast.

Oh my God. So meta. So self-indulgent. Okay, I only get to do this once. So let me just think on my feet now. Look, I think one axis definitely has to do with conflict versus agreement. Right?

And I think what generally happens, I feel, with a lot of discussion podcasts. I don't listen to too many discussion podcasts, but it's usually like two or three people sitting in a room, mostly men, and agreeing with each other. Or if there is any kind of a disagreement, the disagreement is very performative, right? And it's like, and I don't generally find that particularly fun.

There's no point in three people sitting together and dunking on something or talking up something. These days talking up is much more common. Yeah. You even talked about this. No one two by two, the broification. Yeah, we did this. We did this. We did this.

So I think I would like to believe so that's one axis. So it's like where there is genuine conflict and disagreement and where there is agreement and people just getting together and just talking and, you know, glazing each other. So I guess that's one axis, right? I think the second axis is probably some kind of stakes. Like, for instance, is it about something that truly matters in the current context? Or is it about something that does not matter, right? Maybe that's the second axis. Or actually, a better second axis.

Now that I think about it, is actually ahead of time, which is you go before it happens. you go after it happens. And I feel like I would like to believe two by two is in that right quadrant. You are predicting a lot of things very often. Yes, I am definitely. Sometimes you're right. Sometimes you're wrong. Oh, sometimes I'm horribly wrong.

And my listeners and subscribers write to me and remind me about that. They don't seem to write to me when I get it right. But some things, they're very, very clear when I'm wrong about something. But somethings turn out to be right much later. So, yeah, we'll talk about some of those. but I feel like I think I've always wanted a podcast where you get like smart people in the room. By the way, I mean, people don't know this or maybe they do.

I actually don't brief my guests too much. Like when we basically get guests in for discussions, they're like, can you send us the questions? I'm like, questions, I don't know. I'll tell you some broad themes that we'll cover. And I encourage you to have a point of view and disagree with me or each other. And those are usually the best episode.

Sometimes it doesn't happen. Sometimes people try to do it. It depends on people, and who are your guests? It depends on my guess. Some guests have learned it and those are the guests. Typically,

I try to get back again and again. But otherwise, people try to be very safe. But anything that we discuss in it in this episode is almost 100% organic. We just, like, I don't know what they're going to say for the most part. They don't know for the most part

what my arguments are. They don't broad themes. And then they also realize, oh, this person is not for it. Okay, fun. Let's see where this is. And I think as a listener, you can really sense this.

It's so nice. natural and it's not scripted and I think that's what makes 2 by 2 such a hit among our listeners. Well, I certainly hope so. But yes. Let's start with the story that you tell on this show the most

often, PGK, which is how companies fight especially what we were talking about, right? Duopoly is under attack. So much of Indian consumer tech is now Duopoly, whether you think about Ola Uber, Amazon FlipCard, Swigizumato, phone pay, Google Pay. You keep

coming back to this and how they get broken. Sometimes you have an outsider who's undercutting on price. Sometimes it's an outsider going after the customers that the doopoly were ignoring. You know, like Misho. What have you learned about

Duoplies and how they get broken? Duopolis have been a fascination of mine. I've been fascinated with Duopolis for a long time. Because, see, the reason why I've been fascinated is because when we started, not two by two, but when business started in India, especially in the last decade.

If you think of all of these sectors, they were like a ton of players, right? If you look at e-commerce, there was Flipcard Amazon and of course the snap deals and so many, so many companies that don't even remember these days. Then, of course, even if you look at, say, ride sharing, even if you look at, say, food

delivery, there were so many companies in everywhere and I think OLA was doing all of it. Anyway, so, okay, but very quickly, I was very fascinated why it became Duopolys very quickly. And I felt it became duopoly is faster than what I expected. Very quickly, e-commerce became Flipkart and Amazon.

Very quickly, ride sharing became Ola and Uber. Very quickly, food delivery became Swiggy and Zomato. No one knows a third. There isn't even a third in either of these. You'll struggle to think of a third, right? And this happened in the last, like the second half of this decade. Yes. It's almost like...

It just happened so quickly. And then the general consensus was, okay, that's it. It's a duopoly now. these two people are going to be around for the next 10, 15 years, right? And Duopolis are so boring. They're really boring, right? What do they do? To say, for example, if I'm a consumer and example, Ola Uber, right?

How does it change my experience? It changes a lot of things. It reduces choice. It forces. The thing that happens in Duopoly is, you know, I'm sure you've seen this in all of the stories that you cover with individual companies. is that doopolys tend to, they tend to coales.

I don't mean that they generally collude, but they tend to start doing the same things. Both the apps look exactly the same. Both the services look exactly the same. The convenience fee seems to raise at the same level, at the same time. So, and I feel like it's not just like, of course, innovation kind of goes away

because at the end of the day, and just two of you, you're fighting between, oh, 55% mark HHA versus 45. I mean, who's really going to push you? yourself beyond a certain point. So all of those, it becomes just boring. Okay, it becomes, I mean, I mean, as a consumer, I'm sure it's bad. I don't know.

But as a- It is. It is, I'm sure it is. But I'm saying that as a person who's covering it and writing about it and is, I'm interested in like interesting things, it just becomes so boring. And I don't like boring stuff. So, the thing that I have always been fascinated by for a long time is, how do do our police break?

Yeah. Because there's really no reason. for Duopoly's to break. They can continue like this forever. And I was so interested with this question. And I'm saying that right now, we are living in one of the most interesting and exciting times about our understanding of what happens to Duau Police.

I don't think we've ever seen this before, in any market anywhere in the world. What was the previous understanding of Duau Police? The previous understanding of Duau Police is that Duau Police just exist and they exist and they stay that way. And that's changing how? And that's changing. And so only reason typically in the past when Duau Police,

Dauopoly's break is it requires a technological change, right? A new technological wave comes in and this thing. But in this case, it doesn't, right? And I feel like there's something to say about why dooplies are now really being challenged. And it's not technological reasons. It is for business model reasons and which I find really interesting. So take the example, right? It all began with what rapid wrote it.

So one way to break duopoly is you come in with a completely different business model, which is you say zero commission. And zero commission is a very strict. thing because you go to companies like Uber and Ola who take a commission on both sides of you're not taking it doesn't make any sense but it kind of starts working and similarly

that's one way to do it another way to do it is what Misho did Misho also started with zero commission so for a long time in Duau Police my general thesis was the way to break this is zero commission zero commission is the way you break Duau Police right? You were championing I was zero I was like amazing

this so counterintuitive it's so interesting Rappido did it with Ola and Uber. Meshow is doing it with Flipkart and Amazon. Somebody's going to do it with Zomato and Swiggy and it'll probably be a Rappito

because Rappato started getting into food. In fact, I did an episode on that. But I think the interesting part over the last couple of months is that I've realized that you know, zero commission is just a wedge. Just because you have zero commission

doesn't mean your success is guaranteed. Number one. And number two, what it does is is it only wins you the first fight. It doesn't win you subsequent fights. Can you give an example? I'll give examples.

Okay, so let's take Namayatari. Namayatari came on board and Namayatri was, in fact, the first one should do zero commission. Correct. Correct. Right? When is the last time, I mean, you do daybreak. Yes.

Right? And you cover like daily news and things that are happening on a daily basis. When is the last time you did an episode on Namayatari? I bet it's a while ago. I think it was at least one and a half two years ago. Right? Yeah. Same.

Right? You don't hear anything about Namayatri. these days, right? In fact, I wanted to do an episode of this, but it was a very small thing. If you go to the dashboard, right? Namayatri used to have this really intricate dashboard. I actually still use it.

No, no, no. I don't use it that often. But I'm talking about the dashboard. There is this beautiful dashboard that they put up, that O&C put up saying for Namayatari saying, this is the number of rides, this is the heat density, this is the chart.

Have you gone and seen that dashboard? Number of diverse, how much they earned? How much they earned? Historical data. It was like really open data that they put. Have you gone and seen that dashboard today? Go and have a look at that dashboard today. Interestingly, a lot of the stuff that they shared earlier has reduced.

They don't share that much data anymore. So it has like a few data points, but you can't look at historical trends that easily. I don't think it exists, right? You can go. I mean, you can open it in front of me and see it. There are no charts anymore. Right? It is just, and the reason why is because they started with zero commission,

but they were not able to capitalize on it. another counter example is Misho Misho started with zero commission but it didn't win just because of zero commission we've done an episode on this where it won based on this thing called Valmo where it created this logistics network it won based on data science

where it basically used its recommendation algorithm in order to recommend things and create a feed it won on other things now similarly if you look at the most interesting thing that's happening is what happened in the last few weeks which is Swiggy and what it is doing to food delivery because in food delivery. Swiggy realized, well,

okay, zero commission is coming, is probably going to be rapido with only, or there are talks of even Flipka doing it. And Swiggy's like, chalo, might as well do it ourselves. And they are starting their own Z. And I'm like, this is so interesting. Like, imagine, you're part of a

duopoly and you're like, you know what, I think the best way. And in fact, I had a guest on that, Jignancho Gore, who's the director at Bernstein Research, and he basically characterized it as, it's like amputating to live. Right? is ready to cut off its arm in order to say that we will win the long game. Very interesting.

I think duopoly and what's going to happen to duopolys and how they're going to play out and all the desperation that duopolys have to hold on to their duopolyistic position and the desperation of companies that are going to use zero commission and what happens post-zero commission is going to be a very big team. Do you see something like this, like this cannibalization almost happening to other... companies which are duopoly. It's very interesting, you know. I think that if Swiggy starts to see some kind of success,

I feel like it's starting to, it'll probably become some kind of a cautionary, not a cautionary, but an example for other people to emulate. To some extent, people are doing it. Like, for instance, when Misho came, I think Flipkart and Amazon started doing zero commission for some products, some categories, some vendors, etc., but not as aggressively.

Because even they also looked at it, and they're not going all in into this, right? Not seeing Swiggy has gone all in, but if Swiggy does, it'll be interesting. similarly to say Uber We did an episode on Uber Uber has also started going Zero commission on certain kinds of rides

as a response to what RAPido is doing So it's going to be very interesting It's going to be very very interesting How do our police play out And I think that's going to be a big theme of season 3 So just one question about towing You think like Swigie made this move I mean you think it's a really smart move

On their part or do you think like it's really coming from a point of defensiveness It's a very counterintuitive move we don't generally see Swiggy making such moves. In fact, one of our first episodes when we started was this episode called Swiggy needs to reclaim its past glory. Right.

I wouldn't say it has reclaimed, but I will say that it has gone through a period of a lot of pain on multiple fronts. And I think that in quick commerce as an example, it has made a decision to basically conserve capital. In fact, there was one, you know, I think it was a capital market. equity research that said that the value of Instamart essentially they attribute it to zero.

They say it is worth zero, right? So, yeah, Swigy is essentially doing very counterintuitive things at this point in time. Generally, they have done things, but they've never really held on to it. They've done these experiments that they've killed off very quickly. They do something, then they don't persist. I feel this time I see a little more persistence. It's going to be interesting to see what. This reminds me of this episode that we did together once about,

these delivery apps if they were people do you remember? Yeah, yeah, yeah, of course, of course. It was about who would you be loyal to and who would you cheat on. Yeah, and it's so interesting that, you know, Swiggy was

the most boring one. Yeah. You know, and everybody, you know, it was like we were thinking of dating app scenario, right? And Swigy would be the one to get dumped first. Correct.

But that's interesting. The other theme that I noticed in 2 by 2 a lot, PGK is listed companies picking a new direction, right? you have Aether which was this premium electric scooter company now suddenly

it's going down market with a 1-lac scooter then you have Nica it stopped fighting Mintra and it's going premium and also surprisingly after so many years of trying to make the fashion segment work

finally it's making money so Ather is going down Nika is going up like what do you make of this Yeah I think the other interesting thing has happened over the course of two by two at least in the last two and a half years

is more and more companies have started going public, right? And that is a very different and an interesting thing because when a company is private, there's a certain set of dynamics that happens and we're talking about also not just about what the company does as a strategy

but also how it's perceived, right? Because once you're private, you can do at some level you can have to promise growth, you talk to your investors, you do a bunch of things, etc. Yeah, a lot of crazy things. Things are allowed. A lot of, yes. Could be crazy things, could be not so crazy things.

I'm not sure. But they do a bunch of things. There is a certain way of doing things. I think once you get listed, the game has to change. And I think a lot of companies are trying to figure out what that answer is. So you take the two examples that you said, right? Look at Ather. Ather is started off as a premium company.

It basically was this company that was a, like we did an episode on how we had Tharun, who is the founder and CEO of Ather on the podcast. well. And he came on just before Ather went public. And he spoke to us quite candidly about Ather's plans and what they were doing. And at that time, Ather was premium. And we called it a pioneer. And we said, can it also be a leader?

And since then, in like almost two years, Ather is now starting to go down market. It's just started like, last month I did this episode on the 1 Lack scooter where it is starting to go down because it realizes us that, okay, if you have to win, we have to start premium, but go down. Nica is the other direction.

Exactly. Nica started off as, oh, we are this mass market, we are doing a lot, a little bit of fashion, but you're also doing beauty and some of the stuff here and there. Now they've decided, oh, we have to go premium. And now their investors are starting to reward them a little bit for it. So it's a, I think they went public almost at the same time. But now it's going reverse. Similarly, for say, Ola Electric. Ola Electric started off as this thing that went public and I don't know, anyone who talks about Ola Electric today and probably recoverable at this point in time. So yeah, so there were all these, the going public part is so interesting.

Because companies really change when they go public. And they have to change when they go public. So, of course, we've done episodes on companies. Like I said, Ather, Nica, Grow. Grow is another interesting company which has to become everything. But my favorite, favorite, favorite story about going public and what it does to a company is the story of Zepto. because it is such a fascinating story. Tell us.

No, it is, I don't know. People are going to think that I'm obsessed with Zepto. As I say, obsessed. Okay. But no. I think Zepto, of course, the reason, the reason I'm obsessed with Zepto is because if you really think about it, this goes back to the Doopoly point.

Zepto was a challenger. Yeah. A serious challenge. Because when Quick Commerce was there, it looked like, okay, it's going to be between Blinket and Instamart. And suddenly out of nowhere this company comes. And of course, the beginning people are like, what's going on here?

And then start dismissing it, but then it starts getting traction. And then you're like, okay, what's... And it's like... Like, the analogy that I always give about Zepto is it's a little bit like the Joker in Gotham City. It's like little unpredictable. You cannot really tell. It kind of like bends the rules.

Sometimes it'll be like, oh, we will do this $99-reau-convenience. Oh, we will remove it. Oh, we will start doing meat. Oh, we will take on lishes. And it seems very arbitrary. And some people say, There is some grand plan, but it also looks very arbitrary and very chaotic, as they say, but effective, right? And for a long time, for both Zomato and Swiggy, they kept saying this, that, boss, all of this is fine.

You are a private company. In fact, they would say this in their earnings calls, whenever they would get asked about Zepto, and Zepto would keep doubting these numbers, oh, this is our market share. Yeah, yeah. And both of these companies would keep saying, look, do not look and measure a private company and what it says. with the disclosures of a public company implicitly saying wait for these guys to come public

then as they say you know doodka duu pani-ca-pani-o-jad we will figure this out until then they're just like talking their mouth out don't worry about it and Zepto's like okay fine we'll do it

and they decided that we will go public and I was like okay this is so fascinating I want to see how this happens and they started going public and everything was leading up to it and literally just at the finish line they couldn't they absolutely couldn't

and they've just got blocked by not by VCs but by mutual funds, which is a completely different player. We'll talk about that. That player of mutual funds and what they have done. To the market.

Unrescended. We'll come to that. Actually, that's also very fascinating. It's very fascinating. So for me, Zepto is the story of the, you know, all of the story of a company that is private, going public

and all the pain and reinvention that it has to do. Many companies discover that after they go public, they have to go through that really painful process. Zepto couldn't even get to that point to go through the pain. But Pitching, I want to come back to, you know, how

your fascination with how companies change once they get listed, right? Like, of course, you know, we know that now you're answerable to the market and that of course means that you have to be cautious. But, you know, there is a certain character that every company has, right?

Which is why you find a certain company more interesting than the other. once they go listed, that very inherent character can change, right? Absolutely. I think companies become very different people once they get listed.

Yeah. I mean, the traditional thing is people say, oh, they become more disciplined and they have to focus on profitability and all. And that's true. There is some truth to that. But I also think they change because they invest...

I feel, okay, here's what I generally think. Okay, it's a very... It's a very early thesis. Okay, so this might be wrong. and we'll find out. Okay, but I feel like what ends up happening is when you go public, there is some amount of pressure on you as a company

in order to go to the other extreme. Right? So if you're Ather, and you say we are premium, they're like, okay, you're premium. But then you have to basically tell that story of, but you know what? We are going to go mass.

It's not about, oh, we are going to be premium. We're going to add on some things. I don't think investors understand that. Similarly with NICA, and NICA goes and says, oh, we are mass. We're like, okay. But we're going to be premium.

Oh, okay. So I feel like any kind of a story that you tell which is the exact opposite as an aspirational story is something that investors tend to, you know. Got it. Go for. And I felt like, for instance, if you go back and see, apart from all the execution stuff, but if you look at, say, I feel like companies that are not able to tell that story very well, I think are the ones that tend to get a little stuck apart from the execution stuff. Can you name one? Yeah, look at OLA Electric as an example. OLA Electric is like, what is Ola Electrician challenge?

I mean, apart from the execution challenge. Oh, you in public. a story after that. We will launch motorcycle. We will launch this. I'm like, okay, fine, but fine. What else? I don't think Zepto's story was very clear before it went public. Fine, you're going public, but what's your story? You are this, you know,

company that is locked into urban markets in like really highly profitable centers. What's your plan? It's not like they're saying, oh, we will go into every village. Maybe that would have been worked in their favor. I'm not sure. So I feel like it's a little bit of that. And I think that

that is essentially the part that investors generally they want to hear a story that is tell me a story that shows that you are going the exact opposite of where you are right now broadly speaking it's that maybe I'm wrong but we'll see. Yeah I get

it and it does seem rational right like on Ather's part and on Nica's part it seems to be working but then you know in this push and pull between premium and mass what's happening to the middle? Yeah I think the middle is where it's going away.

I don't think companies are essentially going to, are able to say that, oh, I want to be in the middle. I don't know. I have my doubt. And what happens to the consumers in the middle? Yeah, it's difficult to say. I think, see, even the mass part,

no, it's hard to really argue. How many companies have really made money from Mars? Mishu now is starting to do something. I feel like the story of making money from mass is so seductive and so appealing that investors may be willing to, like, understand that story and fund that story and have patience with that story. The story that I'm going to make money from premium

and I'm going to double down on it is also so seductive that people are willing to back you on it. But if you go and tell a story I'm going to make money from the middle, maybe you will. But I don't think investors, private or public,

are able to look at it and say oh, this is such a great story. I think I will like back this. I don't think that resonance exists. Yeah. I mean, it's the same. principle with storytelling that you are so good at

I think you too but then all of us do this but we know this at the can also right like if you basically tell a story you need to tell a story about a very sharp thing that something is going on if you tell a very broad story

as you know then people also are not interested in a story like that now these are two fairly newer companies right selecting a direction that they want to head in but I think it gets

even more harder when the company is like a legacy company right like when it's very old. Even on your show, the old economy stories, they usually go three ways. You know, you have HUL, which is once a gold standard of brand building.

So many brands it has now barely they've grown in a decade. You have Bajar finance, two-wheeler lender. Now it's turning to AI to reinvent itself. And then you have an Indian IT company that lost about 2,000 crores of value in four days because of AI. So let's start with HUL and Bajaj finance. Both of these are very old companies. Why is one of them struggling and the others reinvented winning?

Is it again to do with storytelling? No, it's not due with storytelling at all. It is not at all with story telling. In fact, this is the reverse. This is not about narrative. Because remember, think about it. These are all public companies that have been around for a while. So this is not about, I mean, by this time,

they have told every story that has to be told. Investors know every story that I have been told. So they're like, boss, just tell me what you have. and what your numbers say, right? I think the fundamental question with legacy companies is, what is your asset? Right? And I think that their understanding of what is an asset changes.

And if they understand it and catch it well enough, they succeed. But if they don't, they kind of like persist with it. So as an example. So it's like, let's say, for instance, if it's almost like, let's say you live somewhere, right? maybe your asset is like you have a house and you have something and you have like a backyard right you may think oh my house is an asset and my car is an asset but your car is like you it's very nice

it's a wonderful car it's a wonderful house it maybe it means something to you but over time you sort of because you're kind of attached to it you don't see that it's not really much of an asset people don't see it much of an asset it's really not giving you the returns that it should be giving you but on the other hand there is this thing lying in your garage which you thought was just this, you know, suing machine. And then after some time, suddenly you realize, wait a minute, that suing machine that I have, you went, go there and take it and you're like,

oh, this is worth more than my car now. I think that is the fundamental thing with legacy companies. Can you spot that? Can you not? Like, if you take HUL as an example, like, I'm sure you have, I mean, DeBrick has on many episodes on legacy companies. Suppose I asked you, what is HUL's real asset?

What would you guess it to be? It's FMCG products. It's everywhere. Super visible. So it's brands. It's all the brands at HUL has. HVL has essentially said, we are such an old company.

We have all of these amazing brands and these brands are brands that, even before we were recording this, we were talking about a brand and you're talking about some weird ads, right? Yes. And so I'm not going to tell the Mr. which ad it was.

We'll come to that. But do you see what it is? Because those ads and those products are in our heads. They're in our heads and the heads of you, me, our parents, our relatives, our relatives, everybody around us. And H.O.L. is like, that is our asset.

and that is why we are great and we have to just keep farming that asset well not anymore okay I don't think people care about brands as much as they used to in fact I want to ask this question

about psychology and how consumer psychology has changed what you're saying that why like you know because back in the day you would think look at something old and you would be like wow you know my grandmother used this soap and my mom used it

and you know, but that has completely flipped. Also, because look at the younger generation now. Yes. We are here to blame, we can't blame jenzy's anymore. Okay, but,

okay, we used to make jenzy jokes, but not already bore. So jenzies, while they are not trying to, like, topple the government, they essentially have reached this point where it's not cool anymore.

Exactly. It's not cool anymore to drive the stuff that your parents drive. It's not cool anymore to use the perfumes and the deodorants that your parents use. It's not cool anymore to have the same products

like soap and shampoo. and everything else that your parents have. So that's one of the reasons why something that you thought was an asset is no longer an asset. And that is part of, at least what I argue, in that episode, part of the reason why HUL is past its peak. And what about Bajajaj finance? Bajaj finance is the exact opposite. Okay. And it's very interesting because Bajar finance is this really traditional company, really boring company, right?

Of course it has a... But Bajajan finance essentially rediscovered and understood that, this thing that we have been sitting on all this time that we thought was just a cost, just this random thing oh, it is the most powerful asset that we ever realize and you want to take a guess what that is? Yes, but which data?

What does Bajajan finance do? Yes, and that's exactly what it is because Bajajan for a lifetime has been calling people and talking to them and selling laws. Oh my God, you've done stories on this? Yes. How many calls people get to?

How many calls people get? Right? But people always said, oh, Baja Fentemem makes calls, Baja Fianna makes calls. Where are they getting this information? No, it's not about information. It is about they have, in their databases, in their company, they have recordings of all of these calls over years. Now, think about it.

Now, you are in an era where voice AI suddenly comes. And voice AI is essentially like saying, hey, we can basically call people to sell loans or to collect loans or whatever, all the things that financial services do. Bajajan is now looking at its data and saying, this thing, this is the biggest asset that we ever have. Nobody has anything close to this. And only we have it.

And we understand these workflows. We understand this so well. Yeah. And the scale of it. So now suddenly something that customer calls and the understanding of which customers do what, which was kind of like, well, it was there, suddenly becomes an asset.

That is why Bajajan. In fact, I did this, we did this episode on, I think the title of it was Everybody bet on phone pay and credit but Bajaj Finance got there first because everyone thought these fintech companies are the ones are going to crack AI

they are the ones who are going to solve for lending No no no no no Bajaj finance apparently gives like on Diwali last year it gave like 600,000 loans on Diwali as compared to a pre-AI it used to do only 100,000 loans so think about it

That scale has come completely because it has managed to integrate voice AI into it nobody else can do it. Wow. So it's a phenomenal, phenomenal. Very interesting what happens to assets. Some assets depreciate, some assets appreciate. And your understanding of what was an asset that appreciated and depreciate was very traditional.

But now through a combination of culture and students and children, young people and technology, that has changed. Right, right, right. Let's also talk about Indian legacy IT companies, VigK and 2,000 crore rupees. That was shocking. Yeah, I don't know. I feel like Indian IT companies is very interesting. I mean, we've done a bunch of episodes on it. I think first we actually thought, if I remember correctly,

maybe around like a year pack. We did an episode on GCCs where we said that, oh, here are all of these, you know, why would Indian IT companies even will face a big threat from like, you know, companies from the US who are going to come and set up GCCs over here. And yeah, I'm sure GCCs have been happening. Interestingly, I know this is not exactly an IT company,

but I'm just like reminded of this. while we're recording, just yesterday, I don't know if you saw Zohos, CEO, the Wembo's tweet, where he was basically put this thing up where you were saying that, look, things are actually quite bad right now,

coins are quite difficult. AI has increased our costs and as a result of which we may not be able to give pay bonuses or, you know, pay increases this year. Things are quite difficult, right? So you can see what's happening. I mean, it's not IT, it's SaaS, but still, right?

So you can see the pressure is really mounting on Indian IT companies. And I think for a long time, especially when AI started coming, people were looking at Indian IT companies and thinking, what are these guys doing? Like, you guys are sitting on so much cash. You guys are sitting on so much dividends. You just gave it back to investors.

You could have done something about it. And they did. And so at that point in time, if you looked at companies like, say, HCL Tech, I think HCL tech suddenly decided that, okay, we have to start investing in like Frontier AI. And I think they put an investment in the Sarvam, which was the first time that they did something. In fact, we also did an episode where we tried to rank

the four big IT companies who is the most vulnerable, who's not. It's interesting. I feel like, I think, my opinion on IT companies... Can you just remind our listeners? What was the ranking? I mean, we all had different rankings, okay? But it was, I think, if I remember correctly,

it was between TCS, Infusis. XS. Y, Ypres. Yeah, and Vipro. Right, it was between those four. I think we all had a different point of view. But I think in general, people believed that ETSIL

is a good position TCS is in a good position we'll see what's happening now with the Tata group but TCS is in an interesting position I don't know my opinion and IT companies keeps changing a lot because on one level sometimes they start to believe that yeah this is not a good position for them

when AI comes they're probably going to get you know they were really going to get into some trouble they're going to lose some margins but sometimes I keep changing my mind and I change my mind because do you remember can you? Yeah I'll tell you where I changed my mind when it became evident that open source models are now

starting to compete with anthropic an open AI, because then it starts to become apparent that, look, especially when that fable ban also happened, then you start to realize that, look, people are going to want somebody to do some kind of orchestration. You can imagine these big insurance companies saying, look, we are going to de-risk ourselves, we're not going to get tied to the hip to an anthropic or an opening eye. So you come, you set up the system in such a way that it protected and we don't lose some access, what stuff we send to Frontier models, what stuff we send to open source model, what stuff we send to like, you know, closed models that is within our own premise.

And I feel like Indian IT is like tailor-made for solving problems like that. So sometimes I start to think that maybe it's not so bad, maybe it's not so bad. But I really think next year we'll know for sure. So you can ask me this next year. When we do the next year season finale, we will specifically talk about IT companies

because I think a lot of things start to become about it. I remember this. But if you had to place a bet on one of these legacy companies, you're talking about legacy companies. Yeah. Turning around in the next. one or two years, which one would it be? I don't know this is a legacy company,

but I think the one company I'm going to be watching, not just me, a lot of people are going to be watching very closely is geo. I mean, it's not exactly legacy, but still, because geo platforms is going public. Probably this month, if I'm not wrong, it's actually supposed to be this month. All indications point to this month.

Indications point to it's probably going to be the biggest IPO ever. So see, it also combines two things. It also combines companies going public, legacy company trying to figure out. And you could argue that for geo, they have done some stuff. Like Reliance Retail is interesting, but I don't know.

It's going to be very interesting when, because a lot of geo platform numbers are also a little bit, you don't really get to see it very clearly. So I think once it goes public, we may start to get a better sense of it. So that's one company. I don't know what, turn around, but it's only one company.

You would like to watch out. Oh, definitely. Definitely. So PGG we talked about how companies fight. The other thing that comes up again and again is who pays for these companies, right? Because like you mentioned earlier, so the money is changing hands, right?

VCs used to set the price for a good story, like you said. Now it's domestic mutual funds, ordinary people, monthly SIPs. They are the gatekeepers. So, like, for example, when Zepto went to them, they offered about a third of their last private valuation, which is why the IPO was paused. So who actually gets to decide now, PGK, which companies can go public?

See, the answer to that question, is that it's about two things, okay? It's about where does the money come from, right? Traditionally, the money always came from VCs, right? Whether the VCs are Indian VCs or foreign VCs or whoever it is. The VCs are the ones who decided who would get money and who would not, right? and that is what led to whatever was happening with startups in India, right? Let's talk about startups for a second before we get to the big business. But most of the startups are actually big businesses today.

Look at like Zomato and all of the others. So it's either that. They were the ones who decided where the money came from or it was in a sense American big tech. So it's about say Amazon deciding to set up here. It's about Uber deciding, no, we are going to invest in India. Or it's about, say, Walmart applying flip card. So it's kind of like that combination. nation is what decided money in India, right?

Now, that changed because I think for the last two, three years, like you know this, right? I'm sure you have done Debrake episodes on the SIPs that are flowing into the Indian market. Yeah. Right? Yeah. Which is, let's unstoppable force, right? Because every month, I don't remember the exact number. What is it?

8,000,000, close. I don't remember. Somewhere I did it in a podcast. Yeah, 31,000 gross. Now I remember. Okay. So, 31,000 crores a month is just coming into the market from ordinary people who do nothing. Like, it's just, it just comes like clock.

Right? It just comes. Boom, boom, boom. 30,000 clothes pumping into the market, right? It's like that heartbeat every month that comes in. And that number has been growing, growing, growing. And of course, a part of it was also because of a lot of push for, you know, I'm sure you've seen the ads of mutual funds. Yeah.

There's a lot of aggressive this thing. but also the decline. Yeah, also in some sense the decline of other financial products but maybe a better way to put it is the allure of this financial product, right? So a lot of people started realizing and looking at this.

Talk market used to be this very risky thing. People would not put money. But now people after looking at, oh, talk market has been climbing for all this time. Let me put some money. Every month automatically let me just put some money. This is my investment. Almost like how money goes into PF, right?

And... What do you think change? that mindset and people... I mean, obviously, one was the change in the market. The market was very different and it had this huge bull run extended bull run for a long time.

In fact, now, it's now going through a difficult position. And I don't mean just now as in one month, two months. I see even if you go back to the last 12, 18 months, I remember seeing a chart that said that if you put an SIP, you...

FDs are now beating SIPs. If you put SIPs in like, if you put something in SIPs, 12 months back or 18 months back every month and you put the same money in FD. You'd be much better off it than FD than than SIPB, which is like unthinkable sometime back. So now what SIPs

do is SIPP send money because they send money they basically go into mutual funds. Now mutual funds have become the quote-unquote king makers. They've gotten much more aggressive in like earnings calls with companies. And you're right. They are the main reason why Zepto did not go public.

Because now, so the power has shifted from VCs towards... Ordinary people. To, in a sense, you could say funded by ordinary people but the power still rests with big mutual funds. This shift has never happened before.

And if anything, it's also leading to... The second thing that's happening at the same time is a erosion of power and relevance of VCs in general. Right? VCs used to be this all powerful where you'd go to them and you'd have to get money.

Literally, people will have stories about how much as founders they had to really beg and gravel in order to get money from VCs of course they have to try all kinds of things I don't know now because now if you see VCs are under pressure from say the people who give money to VCs are like why are we paying this much money

because in fact read this episode also like why are VCs getting paid this thing called 2 and 20 which is like you take 20 whatever scary and all of that what is this business model over here if you look at say peak 15 peak 15 had a bunch of partners like you see companies now

partners are leaving left right and center right between established companies etc. So then the question is like what is really happening here? So and we're not even going into AI where AI has come and they're like where do we invest in do we have money to invest in? In fact

Indian VCs are going and trying to put money in like international AI companies in the valley you're an Indian VC why are you sitting in San Francisco but some of these very strange things have started happening and so VCs are under a lot of pressure and there's an erosion there public markets and money managers

are becoming more powerful and as you see this long list of companies that are slowly starting to go more and more public it's going to get very interesting. So, then why do people still pay VCs? Very good question. There is an episode we did on that. I feel like a lot of VC economics is going to fundamentally change.

So I think that in, I predict that in season three, we will essentially start talking about things like what happens to the next set of IPUs? Like how do they get priced? What are the stories that they tell? What happens to profitability? And of course, I think we will start to see VCs come under much

more pressure in India, especially in India. Will you enjoy that? I think a part of me will enjoy that. By the way, do you know, this I generally have this rule where I don't get VCs on two by two. Is it? Yeah. I think I can count

the number of VCs have gotten in like maybe like two or three and the only reason I've gotten them is because these are people whom I literally, the VC thing was a exception than the rule where like I got them despite them being a BC because I really admired them and I thought that they're really smart people

and had something very interesting to say VCs are the most boring people in the world generally, they're not just so annoying they just talk so much and it's just like and most of it is all predictable and it's nothing interesting in what they have to say so I really don't find them very interesting But for some reason they have filled that space of Twitter and LinkedIn and giving Gyan for things that are very obvious and just like, oh my God, things are going to be awesome, things are going to be great, things are going to be awesome, things are going to be great.

I think that's just telling themselves that. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. It's a little bit of like telling themselves that let me tell it publicly and then there are some audience for it. Yeah. But PCHK, again, there is somebody else apart from, you know, the public markets that are getting stronger. there's somebody else who can also change company economics overnight. I'm guessing we are talking about regulators.

Yes. And the state. Okay. Yes. Regulators. Oh man. Regulators. So much fun.

Okay. Yeah. Regulators is so interesting right now because I'm just trying to think. The last episode that I did was on the IRDAI, right? And what they're doing with insurance companies. They're reintroducing price caps, right? Right. Then there is, of course,

what, UPI, UPI is another one where I think, yeah, I think in general what I'm generally trying to see is that, see, see, regulators have always been around, right? I feel like in general, regulators trying to get into the business model of things is getting a bit more, shall we say, direct or shall we say more, they're getting more involved. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Don't know. It's some, so that's too. soon to say. But I feel like some places,

if you look at some of the guests who come on this episode, they tend to argue that generally not a good thing to try to put caps. Generally not a good thing you try to basically like instead of putting things on caps,

etc., which you can control, it's better to try to control things like outcomes, which much harder. But I think that's the general thing. So I'll give another example. And the regulators are getting in very interesting and creative ways,

okay? Which I find is interesting, which number one is if you look at what the IRDII is doing to insurance companies, saying that, oh, too many middlemen are getting so much, you can't pay this much and only the money. And then you also did an episode of that. Okay, so you're like, oh, we'll

cap it and say and people are like, oh, okay, whatever. And we had like a couple of guests on that. If you look at, say, what UPA is a great example, right? Where you basically say, okay, somebody has to make money over here so we will introduce MDR. Have they postponed it? I'm not very sure. Because they were like, there's all kinds of

noise. Because the last I checked, there were so many protests, merchant bodies protesting. And, yeah, I'm not sure if it's on postpons. I mean, I'm hearing different stories. I mean, they're all leaks. I mean, some people say that, oh, that's going to happen. Some people say, no, no, it's postponed beyond Diwali.

Some people just postponed to early next year. But essentially it's... Yeah, after Diwali. After Diwali, right? Because everybody is now, I get very nervous about this. Because they're like, no, no, no, please let's not... They've not even given a date. Yeah, okay, fine.

All right. It'll happen. I think it'll just... It's just taking their time with it. But, so that's another way to do it, where you basically change the model of something that you've built, right? A third way, and this is also interesting, is do you know what the NPCI is doing?

We also did an episode on this. You know what the NPCA is doing? The NPCI, which essentially like... Runs UPA. Runs UPR, right? Is looking at all of these companies that are running UPA, the Google page, the phone page of the world, and then saying, hmm, we should probably get our player in there as well.

Right. Which is Bheem, right? Right. And you remember, Bheem was always there, right? In the beginning. And the reason why, Beam came in the beginning was,

Beam was like, oh, we are going to be this proto thing so that we encourage other people to like kickstart, get into it.

So it's almost like, you know, the analogy that I give. It's like when you go to a wedding, right? And there is like, someone plays the music and it's time to dance.

Right? Nobody's going to go on the dance floor first. Right? Good. So one person has to go on the dance floor first. Right? And Beep was the one

that went to the dance floor first. Right? And started dancing and everyone was like, oh, okay. I can do better than this. I can dance here too. Now imagine if everybody else comes and starts dancing and there's a dance

going on, there's a dance party going on, everything is fine. Everything is fine. Everything is a dance party. And this person who started with the dance was probably the bride or something. Must have left. Right? Because I don't know dancing. Now suddenly, at 3 in the morning,

this person comes running back in. And it's just doing a dance. You'll be wondering, why are you back here? Everything is fine. They're okay. Okay. But no, the NPCI is like, we want to send a person in.

Which is why if you see, there is a lot of beam ads off late. I know you must have noticed it. What happened? Suddenly, why are there more beam ads? Because NPCI is like, okay, we need to put our player in there as well. And we need to make sure that they also have some kind of this thing. And it was a very interesting episode. Like, what happened?

Why did NPCA get be given? So that's another way how a regulator is doing things. Got it. Right? In the next year, let's say, how do you see this online digital payments landscape changing? Of course, I mean, merchant fees, MDR will be introduced at some point. And then what happens after that? What do you think you'll be talking about when it comes to UPI and digital payments in season three?

See, I don't think things like, oh, UPI payments are going to like reduce, go away. I don't think that's going to happen. I feel like it's very intense now. It's almost about 10 years now. So I don't think it's going to go away. I feel the fundamental question always is who gains. and who loses from this. And I think that

generally the direction that we are in is that the people who tend to gain are going to be the banks. And the people who lose probably tend to be consumers. At least that's a theory at this point.

Because that's how it is. If you basically are going to charge on UPI, so you go to a store and you're going to pay UPI, they'll try to pass it on to you. So it seems like that's what's going to happen. But how, PGK? Because everyone, we look at UPI as a public good. Yeah.

They sold it as a public good. Yeah. So how can you now change that? Again, it's about stories, no? Yeah. What story are you going to tell to make this work? I think that's the other interesting thing. I mean, if it was, it's not just about a public good.

It's also about what was it, what was really broken about it? Like, I mean, we have written at the Ken many critical stories about UPI. And of course, we have done a few interesting episodes about. UPI as well. But the thing that I was always puzzled by was what was really broken here? Like, what was the problem here? I mean, you could say that perhaps, you know,

these apps were essentially like, oh, we have been basically doing this for such a long time. We need to get some money or it. Fine, fine, fine, I get it all that. But I don't know. It just seemed like even the subsidy was, they said, oh, it was a subsidy that was given by the company. But how much was that subsidy?

It was nothing. It was not such a big amount. So it seems very strange that you had to change something that in my view, they seem to be broken fundamentally. Who was really complaining here? So that's interesting. So I feel like this is going to have... I think the second order effects of this is going to be interesting.

I don't know what that's going to be. But it's going to be interesting. And what do you think is, you know, again talking about regulators, right? What do you think is the next rule change that you should be watching out for in season three? Let's see. Insurance is going to have some... Payments is going to have some action. I don't think retail has seen some action there.

Telecom, no. Oh, of course AI. Of course AI, right? And I don't know what the shape of that is going to be because in general, I don't think India or any government for that mind. It's not just an Indian thing. I don't have to blame India, but it's very hard to regulate technology. Like, how do you do it?

We always catching up. They always catching up in Europe. Europe seems to be very aggressive. in some ways, but I don't know how India does it. But I feel like the regulation of AI is going to be very interesting to watch. The directions that it takes, how they do it, what they do.

Usually, PGK, we've seen this happen in so many different cases where they just take, copy-paste, what Europe does. You remember, there was this case, I think it was this anti-competitive case where I don't remember. It was Google matter, I'm sorry.

But they actually went to court and they said that, you know, the government's argument of trying to stop them, it was completely copy-pasted from the EU document. I don't know about this. Yeah. I mean, it's possible. But I think the difference is that the regulator in AI is not a player or is it, it could be. No, but I don't know.

It could be a player because they are also invested in some companies. If you look at, say, Sarvam as an example, I think that the government is a stakeholder. It's a, I mean, a financial stakeholder. It has shares in Sarvum. if I'm not wrong. I don't remember if they kept changing the story. Is it a grant? Is it a equity holder?

But there is some connection there. It's going to be interesting. It's not a regulator exactly, but it's going to be interesting to see how that plays out. Right. And this is what I wanted to come to again, is AI.

It's been even on daybreak. The number of AI episodes that we have done this year, it's just crazy. You know, India was supposed to be a maker that was going to build its own models. I mean, we kind of missed that. us now as a data giver whose languages are an asset, as an integrator,

these are the things that, you know, people are vouching for, right? Running but running on other models. Is India, you think, still, is there scope for being a maker? Or are we just going to be a buyer or a free rider or just data fact? Yeah, this is the hardest one. This is really the hardest one. Because it's like one of those like six blind men and elephants. and except if six blindmen,

not just like, they have their own story about what the elephant is, right? And it's a very, very, it's very hard to say. Because if you see, it's almost like there is a story for everything. There is a story to be told that,

oh, India is going to be a maker because if you look at open source models, India can also do open to look at Sarvam. I mean, it's not open source, but whatever, it can do something close to that. Oh, India's not going to be an open, it is going to be an integrator. It is going to be the ones

that integrates AI into all of these companies which I already told you. about oh, okay, it could be that. Or it could be that. No, no, no, India's users are actually going to give data. They are going to use Open AI, they're going to use Anthropic,

they're going to use Gemini or all these other models and they're going to keep typing stuff or talking stuff and people are going to be like, aha, this country that gives us so much data more than anybody else to train our models. Could be that. Or it is about India is actually going to be a buyer.

If you look at, say, I think it was 11 Labs, which is a voice AI company. It's a Silicon Valley Voicing company. I think they put a thing out yesterday or last week where they said that India is the second largest market for them not by users but by enterprises adopting and paying for it, which I found really fascinating.

When is the last 10 at a SaaS company or whatever, and a tech company essentially that sells to companies, say a B2B company says that our number one market is US obviously. Our number two market is India. I've never heard this happen. I mean, I'm assuming it's true, but then that's interesting. Then there is the whole, you know, okay, but what about Indian AI companies? Yeah.

Then you look at, say, emergent. Okay, and I had this episode on, where are emergence users? Okay, you hear a lot about emergent, but where are users really? So there is that story as a which you can tell. So I think the, and then the answer, the real underlying question is, what is the edge of, you know, what is the edge really? And I think that one of the things that we've always tried to find out is what is that edge. feel like we had like an episode I think with Chaitanya Chukradia

Hosen Tell and he was like India's edges essentially going to be a cultural thing which is that you have so many people with so many languages and so much data sets that are like so deep and so intricate and nobody else can replicate that so it's your history and your deep cultural artifacts that you have

very interesting I have this other theory that India is perfect for AI agents as a market right which I didn't entire case competition. Yes. But so I feel like all of these seem to be true, but not all of them can be true.

Exactly. I don't know. And we're not even getting into careers and what AI does. I feel like the careers thing is still easier. I feel like the career thing is easier because you still know that, yeah, it is definitely going to impact. I don't see any scenario or I see very few scenarios where AI is going to materially improve and increase workforce participation in India in tech.

I don't see that. that happened. I'm not able to find out how that works. But the rest of it, that is the one thing that I feel more strongly about. But the rest of it, man, it could be, the answer is all of the above, none of the above. We will know next year. I think we will know next year. I think I'll ask you, I'll tell you this that.

Some of these I will eliminate next year, for sure. And I will look back at some of these episodes that bad, what was I thinking? Okay, this was obviously such a stupid hypothesis. It was never going to happen. But it's got to be fun. But talking about, you know, careers in AI, PGK, I recently, maybe a few weeks ago, I did this episode and an opera episode on Daybreak

about how the jobs that we thought were going to go first after AI comes into the picture are actually the jobs that companies are hiring for. Like all the software jobs, the first level of like, you know, IT jobs, companies are still hiring for these roles. Why do you think that's happening? Did AI not fulfill what, like, did AI not play out after adaptation, like, you know?

No, no, no, I don't think it's exactly that. I feel like it's two, three things happening simultaneously and some of these will get resolved. Okay. So one is that there is an entire geopolitical aspect of which is not suddenly like open air, anthropic, suddenly saying. that, oh, we are not going to build more frontier models, we need to slow down. And of course, they have their own,

some of it could be marketing. There's a Matt Levin piece on this where he basically writes that are you allowed to collude? If the reason to collude is we have to save the world from extinction. So, because that's what they're saying. They're like, oh, we have to save the world.

Because we have to save the world from ourselves, we have to work together to stop. So it's that. It could be that. And the second thing is, of course, there is China. Because China and opens those models are like getting really good and people never expected them to be that good. So you're like, oh, this is quite good.

So we need people, I guess, to sort of like connect this together. But there is a third thing. And the third thing is a little interesting, but I'll give you this analogy, which is, have you ever used these home services companies like the Prontos and Snabbits and urban companies Insta help, right? One of these companies, I think it was Pronto. Ah, somebody showed up with the camera on their head. Yes, exactly. Exactly.

So imagine that. So it is almost like we are sitting in a world where suppose I said, oh, robots are coming. But you're like, oh, robots are coming. But then you're like, but where are the robots? The robots haven't come yet. But there are these lot of people who are coming into my house wearing this camera. So that means that why is human hiring has not gone down? In fact, it has increased.

But what is really happening is these entry where people have come in. And what they're really doing is they're doing the work. It's like the sweatshop, AI sweatshop. Yeah, I know, or it's kind of like creating the template so that you learn as a company, oh, these are the things that you can put AI for. Okay, thanks for showing us. Okay, how to do it. Okay, now you may march out.

So I feel like it could be a bit of that as well. But I also think it could be with respect to cost. Like, things are still expensive at this point. At least AI is quite expensive at this point. It will go away. It is interesting. Careers is actually the, it's interesting with respect. There are many theories about it.

But the one thing is that some people say that, look, entry level is going to get affected. In fact, I also did this episode on should entry level designers pay for senior designers to teach them, okay? Which was very provocative. People got very angry. I got some very angry designers sending me very pretty. Very pretty PPDs, they would send me saying, you are wrong. I'm like, okay. So, very beautiful.

But anyway, but they were like very upset. But there was also, so I think in general two things are happening. One is people saying that, look, entry level is going to get affected. The other thing that people are saying is, oh, mid-level is going to get affected. All these mid-level managers who have nothing else to do, they just walk around in this floor and they just tell people, you do this, you do that. Requirements gathering, contacting some client, sharing, copy-pasting some PDF and Excel file filling in some cells. They are the ones who AI will automate away.

Do you remember PGK, very interesting? Our first careers podcast, CTC, one of the episodes that you, also kind of shaped was how middle management is crumbling. And this was pre-AI. It was pre-AI. But now I feel like it's this thing where, you know, people are all looking at it. Like, who's going to mentor these entry-level people?

Who's going to med? But the one thing surprising me, nobody seems to be arguing for is senior leadership is going to be fine. I don't think anybody's talking about how AI is going to affect senior leadership. And I don't think, I think that's true actually. Senior leaders have a lot of context. They have a lot of experience. They understand how to,

they have built a reputation and not just a reputation, they built expertise over several years. So as a result, they are the ones who know how to deploy AI really well to solve their own problems. So they have, those are the people who are like maximum excited.

Yeah. Yeah, so good. So awesome. Right. Yes. Yes. So PJK, you were talking, you have spoken about this a lot.

lot on two by two about how, you know, the people losing, you know, that first run are mostly young and mostly people who are living in cities, right? And you've spoken a lot about how their lives are changing in these cities. And usually most of these culture episodes seem to be about one person, right? Which is so interesting. The Indranagar person, is that what it is? And people have said that to me. You know, they live in a city that doesn't really work. Like, look at Bangalore.

I mean, recently we did another episode on Daybreak about this. You know, we have money to build AI cities, but we don't have money to fix our portfols. So they are paying for structure. They're paying for belonging. And for example, you know, 8,200 people paid $9,000 each for a high-rocks fitness race in Bangalore. So who is this hyper-independent? Bangalorian PG again, why did you, why do you always go looking for them?

Yeah. Why do I go looking? Okay, it's very good. See, I, okay. I always like to do certain episodes. Again, this is just probably my Bengaluru, Indranagar bias. But I also like to do certain episodes and I see some strange things happening around me. And I'm like, why is this happening and what does it say about people and culture?

And the thing about culture is, it's so hard to do culture story. right especially on two by two because it's so easy to look at some two people doing some crazy thing which is always going to happen in banglore and then you think that oh this is some new trend okay and it's like oh my god this is some completely new thing that's happening is everything is being changed and upended it so lazy sometimes and sometimes maybe i fall into it as well but but i'll tell you that some of the stuff that i wanted that i did and at least i tried to basically make it a little provocative and interesting and we started off even in the early episode we spoke about Delhi.

Right? I think one of our early episodes was Delhi pricked the Bangalobble where he said that look Bangal is essentially this place where it was great to start companies

and be start-ups and all and we said no you know what? Delhi is actually much better in many ways to build a business and everything else provoked a lot of people provoked a lot of people

I mean Delhi people were very happy but it was about how Banglo people are just talking and they just keep talking among ourselves and both they do keep doing they just keep talking and attending

there's no podcast and events and all that, but Delhi will actually get things done, right, as a business. So I think it's that. Then, of course, you also, then I, that was one aspect. Then the other aspect for me was not about people, but more about cities, right? How do you look at air pollution in Delhi?

Like, why is this so hard to fix air pollution in Delhi? Why is it so hard to fix Bangalore's roads and infrastructure? Why is it so hard to, you know, yeah, go out in India and experience events, right? Why is it so hard? Why is it easier to go abroad than it is to go? So there are things like this that I try to keep finding. And then there is of course things like say high rocks where everybody was doing high rocks. And I was like, okay, what is happening here?

Let's talk about this. Or more recently, people are doing peptide parties. And I was like, okay, what is happening here, guys? That was quite crazy. It was fun. But I try not to make them very randy. And I try not to basically say it's, oh, it's something really big has changed. but it's more about some incentive has changed,

something is going different, something has changed fundamentally. And I always try to look at it through the lens of cities, business model, incentives, people. But PGGK things like high rocks, things like peptide parties, silent reading room,

like, you know, these kind of things are very Bangalore. They've always been like this, no? Bangal's always been like this. I mean, yes, but also, no, because I've been in Bangalore for a while. don't think it has been this.

I feel like it's getting weirder, but that's me. Maybe I'm getting older. But I feel like it's getting weirder. Maybe it was always weird in some ways. It was even weirder. And I was always very interested in, without much judgment. Okay, maybe little judgment.

With, why is it getting weirder? What's going on here? But like for instance, if you take the peptide parties example, right? I think that the thing that was very interesting for me about that was is actually two, three things happening at the same time. It's about people coming into Bangalore and moving in. Yeah.

and their desire for what I call I called it ambient belonging which is that I want to be around people but I don't want to be with people Yes you spoke about this on the episode similarly it's also incentives of companies If you look at companies companies are essentially looking at this and saying

Okay we want to do something We want to grab attention of people right But what do we do? Oh we can't go put a billboard we can do this You know what? Let's do something we'll do a peptide party, we'll do a hospital rave. We'll do it, let's see.

People will hate us, but that's the whole point. It's okay. Combined with a set of young people who are also experimental to the point where, yeah, we'll do anything. It's cool.

I know it sounds ridiculous. But the experience, we'll go see it, we'll go check it out. It's fine. Just the experience of it will do. And I think that's a Bangalore, Bengaluru thing.

So tomorrow, if you and I snigda, essentially we said as a season opener, we could basically say Hey you know what we're doing this very special I don't know coffee and petrol party okay where we take one shot of espresso and one shot of diesel and we

do this I are you telling me we won't get 100 people to come so basically you're saying in season three these things that you'll have a bunch of similar things ridiculous sounding things happening I'm just saying that yeah I'm just saying

that yeah I think maybe Bangal was always a little weird but I was like, but now you can do, you can imagine. See, you can literally imagine this. If we announce this here and we said only 100 people.

The crazy rate is the more. Yeah. And people will come. They're not going to come for you and me. I'm going to come for, okay, this sounds really absurd. Yes.

Let's go. Okay. It's not like they'll say, oh, we go with five of our friends. It's like, we'll go there. We don't know anybody there. We'll see. Okay.

I feel like some, again, it comes back to storytelling. Yeah. Right? Like, you know, I think people want more to hear more extremes. That's why you said earlier, like the middle part is not working. Like, you're neither here nor there.

That doesn't really work anymore. I feel like there's a general phrase that you, I'm sure you're familiar with. It's called late stage capitalism, right? For me, it's not late stage capitalism. That's not what's happening. Late-capitalism is very, I think it's a more western US valley thing. But I feel like six years back, right? I wrote this thing.

which in my newsletter at the time called the Nartgraph where I basically said that there's a thing in India called India's California users right? Yes, so interesting. Yeah, where my general premise at the time

was that people think that and now it seems very obvious but people think that the market is so big the market is so huge it's not. And the whole thing that I wrote back then was that the entire market

was run and created that runs India Indian consumer tech economy is run by this really, really small set of people, which is, I think, the size of Switzerland or London or Finland or something, one of the countries, which is like just 10 million people.

And I'm not talking about like D2C brands and stuff. I'm talking about things like, say, if you looked at, say, Amazon. Yeah. Amazon's, 55% of Amazon's at that time, you know, I think by GMV, their Amazon prime sales, would come from this set of people.

Right? So this set of people have such disproportionate effect on everything. They were disproportionate effect on companies. They were disproportionate effect on AI and startups. There were disproportionate effect on culture. There were disproportionate effect in the way we see things. And in the future and the tactics and the business models of companies like even Swiggy and Zomato and Duopolys and Zero Commission. All of these things, I feel like this is.

the, if I really had to pick one thing, it is the India's California users, the second order, the third order, the mixing and the spawning of that set of users and how that is. Do you think this will be a running theme in season? I think it's going to be a, yeah, yeah, I think of course, this is going to be a running theme for a while because it's been six years, it still continues, the effects still continues. I can't think of a single company, maybe a me short. to some extent. That is a little immune from it.

But the rest of them, they're all a part of it. That's the, the, India's California users continue to exert their power and influence and effect on everything that we do. And that's really what

we have covered today on 2.5. We see the entire journey of 2 by 2, almost every single theme that we pick. It's all a function of India's California users and their disproportionate power. Right. Pitchie if you had to pick out of all these patterns

and themes that we spoke about. Which one are you the most sure about for the next season? The Duopoly is definitely going to continue. I mean, I can't imagine a world where suddenly now everybody becomes a Duopoly again and all these challenges go away. That's not going to happen.

I feel like all of them are going to continue. I feel like in legacy companies trying to rediscover meaning is going to continue. I feel like also trying to understand what is an asset now what is not an asset now is going to continue.

is unstoppable. It's going to continue. Regulation. Regulation is going to continue, but you can see that I'm trying to struggling to think of another example, other than the IRDII and the NPCI and RBA to some extent. Another really powerful regulator that's really going to change things and become a player and have that kind of an influence,

probably less. Can't think of anyone at this point. So maybe the regulator thing is going to get concentrated on these two. probably more on the NPCI and the UPI side which is going to be interesting and well Bangal people are going to continue to be Bangal people and going to do crazy stuff

so that will probably continue as well I don't know we have peptide parties we have hospital raves we should do something what else would happen we should do something for the opening of season 3 I really I told you coffee and diesel is not a bad idea

coffee and diesel we should call something like that and we should get people to come we can charge money for it all just for fun. Oh, but you know what? The setting matters. We can't just call it a coffee and diesel. We have to put it in a...

Like, for instance, the setting is the most important thing. Gas station? No, no, no, no. It's like... Gas station rave in a gas station. No, no, no, no. It's not... You can't do a rave in a gas station.

Because petrol in a gas station is very obvious. Yeah. It has to be something that you... That you don't really connect with it. We should do it in like a metro station. Oh my God. This would actually be cool. Yes, I would show up.

See? We will do... We will mix... We'll do one shot of coffee. one shot of diesel and we will do it at Swami Vivekan at the road metro station. Come. Amazing.

That is the season two finale of two by two. Thank you so much, PGK for taking out of technology questions. No, thank you so much for coming in. I'm so glad you did. Especially because I'm such a huge fan of Daybreak. I think that I have said this many, many times but it's bears repeating even today that it is such a proud thing for me and for the Kianna especially,

but mostly for me that we have a business podcast that's been around for such a long time. Thank you for you. And it has been run by women. Right now it's you and Rachel and you've done it for like four years and I wish you run it for the next 40 years. Thank you so much

and I hope the same for you and very well-deserved break. Please enjoy it. Yes. And we'll be waiting for you. Yes, we'll be back in Raffliamang. Yes. And there'll be some new daybreak listeners

for you also because we're running this episode on daybreak as well. Fantastic. Let's do it. Thank you for. listening to this episode of 2x2. Today's episode was produced and hosted by me, Praveen Gopal Krishna, and the audio production was done by my colleague Arnavrakash.

If you feel like there's something that we missed out in this discussion or just want to share some thoughts and some feedback, just write to us at TWO, BYTWO at the rate of the hyphenken.com. Also, if you're listening to this episode on Apple Podcast or Spotify, just show us some love and leave us a rating or even better, Leave us a review. Finally, if you love this episode, do share it with your friends, family or colleagues who might find it fun to listen to as well. As always, we'll be back again next week with another great discussion and of course a two by two.