Democracy Now! Audio - Democracy Now! 2026-04-09 Thursday

Episode Date: April 9, 2026

Democracy Now! Thursday, April 9, 2026

From New York, this is Democracy Now. I can't tell you how intense it was, how terrifying it was, how scary it was. The sound was very loud, very terrifying and scary. In a terrifying show of force, Israel bombs Lebanon over 100 times in 10 minutes Wednesday, killing at least 250 people, injuring more than 1,000. It's a major military escalation amidst the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. We'll go to Beirut for a report. Then, in response to Israel's assault on Lebanon, Iran's locked down the Strait of Hormuz,

but the United States is still claiming victory. Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield, a capital V military victory. We'll speak with Robert Pape of the University of Chicago. His latest piece headlined, The War is turning Iran into a major world power. And finally, what is the war meant for Gulf states that have been on the front lines of the conflict?

Along with our Gulf partners, we've thus far intercepted 1,700 ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones, defending our forces and our partners in the civilian population, and we remain ready to do so should the need arise. We'll speak with Yasmin Farouk of the International Crisis Group. All that and more are coming out. Welcome to Democracy Now.com.companow.org, the Warren Peace Report. I'm Amy Goodman.

Lebanon's declared a day of national mourning after Israel launched its deadliest wave, of bombing since resuming large-scale attacks in early March. The devastating attacks began without warning Wednesday, striking Beirut, the Beqa Valley, Mount Lebanon, Cydon, and villages across southern Lebanon. Lebanon's health ministry said at least 203 people were killed and more than a thousand injured. Civil defense workers put the death toll even higher at over 250. The attack struck commercial areas and apartment high rises and included Sunni Muslim and Christian neighborhoods in central Beirut that are not affiliated with Hezbollah.

Belgium's foreign minister who survived the Israeli strikes just a few hundred yards from the Belgian embassy wrote on X quote, just before I was commending President Aoun for offering to open official negotiations. with Israel towards a ceasefire, Israel launched with no previous warning one of the most massive strikes since the beginning of the hostilities. The ceasefire between the U.S., Israel and Iran, must include Lebanon, the Belgian foreign minister wrote. The United Nations and world leaders quickly condemned the attacks, which came just hours after the U.S. and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire agreement. Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shabashir, who helped broker the deal, called on all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire as agreed upon.

Both Sharif and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament had said the ceasefire was supposed to include Lebanon. But on Wednesday, Trump officials, including Vice President J.D. Vance, said Lebanon was not part of the deal. I think this comes from a legitimate misunderstanding. I think the Iranians thought that the ceasefire included Lebanon, and it just didn't. We never made that promise. President Trump's warned Iran that U.S. forces will remain deployed across the Middle East until a, quote, real agreement, unquote, is reached between the two countries. Trump's threat came as Iranian media reported Tehran is considering pulling out of the ceasefire

deal with Washington amidst Israel's stepped up assault on Lebanon and conflicting a conflicting counts over the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, the White House denied reports that Iran continues to control shipping through the waterway with press secretary Carolyn Levitt, citing a, quote, uptick of traffic, unquote. According to ship tracking data, just four vessels passed through the waterway Wednesday with their transponders turned on that compares to an average of 140 vessels per day before the U.S. and Israeli attacks. In the Gaza Strip, an Israeli drone strike Wednesday killed Al Jazeera Mubasher correspondent, Mohamed Wich Shah,

as he was traveling along the coastal road that runs west of Raza City. The attack caused his car to burst into flames. Seven bystanders were reportedly injured. Wichah joins a long list of Al Jazeera journalists killed by Israeli forces in Gaza, including Samar Abu Daka, Hamza al-Dadu, Ismail Al-Gul, Ahmed Al-Lu, and Hossam Shabbat. Gaza's media office says Weshaw's killing reflects a, quote, systematic targeting and assassination, unquote, of Palestinian journalists by Israel. His death brings the total number of journalists killed in Gaza since October 23 to 262. Al Jazeera says it will pursue legal action against those responsible.

At least 326 aid workers were killed in the line of duty across 21 countries last year, bringing the three-year death toll to more than 1,000. That's according to the UN's top aid coordinator, Tom Fletcher, who briefed the UN Security Council on Wednesday. More than 560 of those deaths occurred in Gaza and the occupations. West Bank, 130 in Sudan, 60 in South Sudan, and 25 each in Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The International Committee of the Red Cross warned the UN Security Council, quote, we are losing our humanity in war, unquote. This is UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher.

These trends alongside the collapse in funding for our life-saving work are a symptom of a lawless, bellicose, selfish and violent world. Killing Humanitarians is part of the broader attack on the UN Charter and on International Humanitarian Law. Here in New York, about 500 anti-war demonstrators led by Jewish Voice for Peace, gathered Wednesday outside the home of Comptroller Mark Levine protesting his plans to invest New York City pension funds in Israeli bonds, which provide resources. for Israel's bombing of Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza, they said.

Joining the emergency Passover Seder was Mahmoud Khalil, the Columbia University student activist and prisoner, who was jailed by ICE for over 100 days beginning in March of last year. Levine says it's profitable to invest in the Israeli bonds. He says that they are so. solid investments with high returns. It's not surprising that our economy is profitable. That's what Israel economy is.

It's a war economy. That's why there is high yields. But buying these bonds only ensures the injustice and the system of occupation continues. President Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Urta at the White House Wednesday amidst growing threats to pull the U.S. from the military alliance. After the meeting, Trump lashed out on social media, saying in all caps, quote, NATO wasn't there when we needed them, and they won't be there if we need them again. Remember Greenland, that big, poorly run piece of ice, three exclamation points.

Meanwhile, the Washington, the Wall Street Journal reports the Trump administration is considering moving U.S. troops out of NATO member countries, Spain and Germany, as punishment for not supporting the U.S. in its war on Iran. The Trump administration is once again seeking to eliminate a federal program that helps low-income households pay heating and cooling bills. It's the sixth time a White House budget proposal under President Trump has proposed eliminating LIHEAP, the low-income home energy assistance program. Its cancellation would impact at least six million low-income households at a time of spiraling energy costs, saving about $4 billion

dollars in annual spending. Meanwhile, a new analysis finds deep cuts to federal funding for food assistance in Trump's so-called one big beautiful bill led to two and a half million fewer Americans receiving SNAP benefits in the second half of 2025. This comes as the White House has proposed a record-shattering one-and-a-half trillion-dollar Pentagon budget for the next fiscal year. Voters in Georgia's 14th congressional district have elected Republican Clay Fuller to replace Marjorie Taylor Green, a former TAP ally of Donald Trump, who resigned from Congress last year after breaking with the president over Guy.

the spiraling cost of health care and the Epstein files. Fuller is a lieutenant colonel in the Georgia Air National Guard who worked as a fellow at the White House during Trump's first term. His victory over Democrat Sean Harris preserves the Republican Party's narrow majority in the House of Representatives. But Fuller won by fewer than 12 percentage points in a district Trump carried by 37 points in the 2024 election. Another sign that Republicans are poised for historic losses in November's midterm elections.

Meanwhile, in Wisconsin, appeals court judge Chris Taylor was elected to a 10-year term on the state Supreme Court in Tuesday's election. Her victory over a conservative opponent expands the liberal majority on Wisconsin's Supreme Court amidst partisan fights over a board. abortion rights, voting rights, and labor laws. In North Carolina, federal prosecutors have charged a former civilian employee at the Fort Bragg Army base with sharing classified defense information with a journalist. An indictment accuses 40-year-old Courtney Williams with violating the 1917 Espionage Act, as well as multiple non-disclosure agreements after she spoke with journalist Seth Harp, about sexual and race-based harassment at Fort Bragg.

Hart published his findings in his book, The Fort Bragg Cartel, and in a political magazine article. FBI director Cash Patel announced Williams' arrest in a social media post, writing, quote, This FBI will not tolerate those who seek to betray our country and put Americans in harm's way, unquote. Seth Harp responded in a statement, quote, ironically, while the FBI was monitoring my phone and investigating Courtney on vague and weak

charges, the perpetrators of half a dozen murders involving Fort Bragg soldiers involved in the drug trade have gone entirely unsolved. A real police agency would go after real criminals instead of engaging in this sort of penny-ante political theater, unquote. To see our interview with journalist Seth Harp, about U.S. Special Forces involvement in drug trafficking and murder at Fort Bragg, visit our website, Democracy Now.org. Former Attorney General Pam Bondi will not appear before the House Oversight Committee for her scheduled April 14th deposition on the Epstein files. The Justice Department says Bondi was subpoenaed in her capacity as Attorney General and doesn't have to take.

testify because she no longer holds that office. Trump removed Bondi from her role last week over the Justice Department's handling of the Epstein files. Last month, Bondi and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche appeared for a closed-door briefing with the House Oversight Committee, prompting a walk-up by Democrats who demanded Bondi testify under oath. Democratic Congressmember Robert Garcia said in a statement that the congressional subpoena is binding, regardless of of her firing as AG, saying, quote, our bipartisan subpoena is to Pam Bondi, whether she's Attorney General or not. She must come in to testify immediately, and if she defies the subpoena, we will begin contempt charges, unquote.

Republican Congress member Nancy Mays said, quote, Pam Bondi was subpoenaed by name, not by title, unquote. Meanwhile, Well, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik will voluntarily meet with the committee next month to answer questions about his connection to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The Epstein files show Lutnik remained in contact with Epstein for years, even after Lutnik claimed to have cut off ties. Lutnik and his family and their nannies visited Epstein's Island in 2012, four years after Epstein. Dean pleaded guilty to soliciting a minor for prostitution. And here in New York, about 150 workers at ProPublica held a 24-hour strike Wednesday to demand their first collective bargaining agreement since they organized a union in 2023.

Workers are seeking higher salaries, protections against layoffs, and agreement over the use of artificial intelligence. This is Katie Campbell, a documentary filmmaker and journalist at ProPublica. We've heard at the bargaining table that we're special and that we are not a factory, we're not factory workers making widgets. But I think that all workers, regardless of industry, deserve job protections. And we shouldn't be any different than people who are working in factories or who are nurses, who are teachers. We should be able to have the same kind of job protections that other workers and other industries have.

And those are some of the headlines. This is Democracy Now.org, the War and Peace Report. I'm Amy Goodman. Lebanon's declared a day of morning after Israeli attacks on Wednesday, killed over 250 people and injured 1,000 others. At one point, Israel launched 100 strikes in just 10 minutes. Lebanon's president, Joseph Aoun, condemned the attacks as barbaric. and accused Israel of carrying out a new massacre. The strikes came as the Israeli government and the Trump administration claimed the Iran ceasefire does not extend to Lebanon,

but top diplomats have disagreed. When the ceasefire was first announced, Pakistan's prime minister, Shabashirif, said, quote, Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, effective immediately, unquote. The Belgian foreign minister, Maxine Pravatt, was in Beirut on Wednesday. He said Israeli missiles struck just a few hundred meters from where he was at the Belgian

embassy. He wrote, quote, just before I was commending President Aoun for offering to open official negotiations with Israel towards a ceasefire. Israel launched with no previous warning one of the most massive strikes since the beginning of the hostilities. This must stop. The ceasefire between the U.S., Israel, and Iran must include Lebanon, the Belgian foreign minister wrote. Iran's deputy foreign minister told the BBC that the Israeli attacks on Lebanon were grave violation of the U.S. Iran ceasefire. residents of Beirut expressed shock at the Israeli assault.

There's something unbelievable. Destruction. Very massive destruction. I mean, even someone who isn't afraid would become afraid. I feel fear and anxiety. Where is this country headed? What are we going to do with our lives? Where are we staying? Where are we going? No one knows what's going to happen. We have children, livelihoods, property, people want to live. Enough. We've had enough. We've had enough. of war. The Israeli strikes on central Beirut hit Shia Muslim and Christian communities not affiliated with Hezbollah. Meanwhile, southern Lebanon has been effectively cut off from the rest of the country after Israel bombed seven key bridges. Lebanese officials closed the last remaining bridge in the area after Israel threatened to destroy that one as well.

On Wednesday, an Israeli military spokesperson said the area south of the Latani River was disconnected from Lebanon. Israel's threatened to keep occupying large areas of southern Lebanon, where more than one million people have been displaced. We go now to Beirut, where we're joined by Ramsey Kais, Lebanon researcher at Human Rights Watch. We thank you so much for being with us. Can you talk about what's happened in just the last 24 hours? The areas hit, the massive damage, the number of lives lost, Ramsey. Thanks, Amy, and thank you for having me. So yesterday morning, many people across the country woke up to the news shared in the early morning by Pakistan's prime minister,

that Lebanon was indeed part of the ceasefire agreement. This was a sigh of relief to hundreds of thousands across the country, and particularly to the hundreds of thousands, over one million people that had been displaced in March. In the early morning hours, we began to see videos and photos circulating on social media and WhatsApp groups showing displaced people, packing up their cars and heading back south of Latoni to their homes. But then shortly afterwards at 6 a.m., Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, issued a statement indicating that Lebanon was not part of that agreement. and soon people in the country discovered that by fire. There had been strikes in the early morning hours on the southern Lebanese city of Saida that killed eight people.

There were reports of strikes on medical vehicles in southern Lebanon, and strikes continued throughout the day. A few hours after Netanyahu's statement, Israel's Arabic military spokesperson issued what is now a typical overbroad displacement order ordering all residents south of the Zaharani River. This is an area that's approximately 15% of Lebanon's territory to evacuate north of that river. And then shortly after 2 p.m., we began hearing loud, very loud, Israeli fighter jets

roaring in the skies and strikes happening across the country. I was in Beirut at the time, and we didn't know where those strikes were taking place. They came without any warning in advance of the strikes, and they took place in densely populated neighborhoods in the middle of the day. The strikes brought down entire buildings that were packed with people. They happened while people were in the streets going around their business. I was driving across the city and could see smoke rising from various places across Beirut and see ambulances streaming into hospitals.

Chaos ensued across Beirut. And as you noted, the Lebanon's Ministry of Health has announced that there's been over 203 people killed this far. This is not a final toll. And over 1,000 people injured. The Lebanese civil defenses published a higher number, 254. killed. And until now, people are still being dug from the rubble. Photos are circulating in WhatsApp groups of people that are missing still under the rubble in the city. Yesterday, what

203 people killed was the deadliest day in the hostility since March 2. More than 10% of everyone that has been killed in Lebanon and Israeli attacks since March 2 was killed in the last 24 hours. Israel strikes also, Israel by its own admission, also said that it was striking areas populated with civilians. But those strikes did not happen with any warning. They also conducted strikes on bridges, significantly damaging the Qasimidia Bridge, which is the main crossing point into the area south of the Littani River. This comes on the back of repeated strikes on bridges across the Litton, which threatened to sever the area south of Littani from the rest of the country. Photos and videos circulating today show that the bombing at the Qasemite Bridge had targeted the crossing,

next to it with the crossing, literally flying over and landing on the bridge, cutting off access on one side. Tens of thousands of people are still located in the area south of Littani River. And bridge by bridge, they're being cut off from the rest of the country. This Casamia Bridge is the only lifeline for these tens of thousands of people who depend on it for access to humanitarian aid to food. Hospitals depend on it for medical supplies and health aid. And so by all means of the word yesterday was a catastrophic day

for Lebanon. It was disastrous. And unfortunately, we are seeing the humanitarian catastrophe unfold with various threat of that increasing. Israel's Arabic military spokesperson had issued a statement also indicating that Israel intends to conduct more strikes on central Beirut, accusing Hezbollah members of fleeing or leaving the southern suburbs of Beirut and going into Beirut. And so there's we don't, there's no, you know, end in sight yet to the, to the strikes and to the unlawful patterns that we've repeatedly documented since October 2020 to date. Can you talk about the communities hit in central Beirut from Muslims to Christians and not affiliated with Hezbollah? Yeah, these strikes happen.

happened on densely populated areas. They targeted, they happened all across the city. The Israeli military said they conducted over 100 strikes. They happened on the southern suburbs of Beirut, but they also took place in central Beirut, in areas such as Aynam Reisie or Barboor or Talathejat. These are areas that are spread out across Beirut that are densely populated, where tens of people live. And by the Israeli military's own admission, they were constructing strikes on on areas populated with civilians, but under the laws of war, parties to a conflict are required to take all feasible precautions to protect civilian harms. But there was no effective or advance warning ahead of these strikes. And the damage that was done to civilian could be felt on the streets

with continuous ambulances streaming into hospitals with chaos as people tried to find their missing loved ones, as people struggled to pull people out of the rubble with children, still being stuck in the rubble. It was a disaster that was felt across the city and across the country. I wanted to go back to that quote of the Belgian foreign minister. His name is Maxime Pravart. He had just arrived in Lebanon. He wrote on X just before I was commending President Aoun for offering to open official negotiations with Israel towards a ceasefire. Israel launched with no previous warning, one of the most massive strikes since the beginning of the hostilities, allegedly causing hundreds of civilian victims. We were at the embassy with my delegation,

just a few hundred meters from where the missile struck. This must stop, the Belgian foreign minister said. The ceasefire between the U.S. Israel and Iran must include Lebanon, he said. That was the Belgian foreign minister, Ramsey. I mean, indeed, all of that took place. And I think that what we witnessed yesterday in terms of the large amount of civilian suffering of the attacks happening on densely populated areas coming without warning, the scale of it was massive. It was the most, you know, it was the most deadly day since March 2 in Lebanon. But the patterns that we've seen the Israeli military follow in their conduct in Lebanon, as a mehazza is not new. For two and a half years, human rights watch and other rights groups have documented repeated unlawful attacks, war crimes committed in Lebanon, crimes against humanity committed in Gaza, and acts of genocide committed in Gaza.

And while all of this was happening, states that were funding Israel or that continue to funding Israel continue doing so. Arms kept flowing and transiting through countries that continued to provide military assistance to Israel. other states such as Israel's allies such as the United States, the UK, Germany, the EU, they have real leverage to stop these atrocities from happening. These statements of condemnations that are typically issued by states after such horrifying days, they have no effect on the ground. But there is real leverage that states can levy. They can immediately suspend arms sales and transfer and military assistance to Israel.

They can levy targeted sanctions against Israeli officials credibly implicated and abuses. The EU, for example, could suspend the trade pillar of its association agreement with Israel, but we haven't yet seen any effective measures being taken to stop these atrocities. In fact, the silence of states and the continued flow of weapons has only emboldened Israel, where they're not only continuing to commit unlawful acts, but in fact boasting about it and saying that they intend to commit further atrocities. The response from the international community has been limited to words of condemnation, but no effective action has been taken yet in order to stop these atrocities from happen.

Can you talk about the number of medics who have been killed in Lebanon? Do you believe medics are being targeted? What's the number over 50? Yes, over 57, but we don't have the full number yet because we don't have a detailed list of number of medical workers that have been killed yesterday. But as of the day before that, over 57 medical workers have been killed in Lebanon, Israeli attacks since March 2. If we add that to the total number of medical workers killed since October 2023, then we're talking about over 250 medical workers killed in Lebanon. These medical workers have been killed in attacks on civil defense centers, on medical vehicles, on hospitals. As Human Rights Watch, we and others have documented

apparently deliberate and repeated attacks on medical workers in their vehicles, in their civil defense centers at hospitals that we found amount to apparent war crimes. In our investigation, in our investigation, in our investigation's investigation, investigations done by international media outlets such as the guardians, we didn't find evidence of any of these healthcare facilities being used for military purposes in a way that would strip them of their protected status. And this is a claim that has been repeatedly made by the Israeli authorities without evidence. The toll is high and the damage that is conducted by Israel when it strikes medical workers isn't just limited to the personnel that are tragically killed.

It has compounding effects on the rest of the country as access to aid to health care becomes increasingly more limited. Since March 2 in Lebanon, six hospitals have had to shut down their operations for various reasons. Three of those hospitals are located south of the Littani River. where I mentioned tens of thousands of people live. And so increasingly we're seeing in some places that access to health care is being limited, not only by Israeli attacks, but also because strikes on bridges are limiting the abilities of hospital staff to get easy and predictable access to medical supplies that they need. We were in Sur last week, last week, and we spoke with an hospital official at Jabal Amal Hospital,

one of the main hospitals in the city. And they've told us that essentially in order to get supplies after bridges have been struck, they've had to take their own cars, drive across the Laitani River, go to the city of Saida, which is several kilometers away, I think approximately 30 kilometers away,

get supplies and come back to the hospital, often having to do it at night, a great risk to the staff themselves. Paramedic workers have told us that in order to send supplies into the area south of Litae, They typically wait until injured people are carried into Beirut across the Otanee River so that they can send back in those transport vehicle medical supplies that are desperately needed by paramedic staff and other healthcare workers. And so the strikes on medical workers are taking place. We've documented repeated, apparently deliberate attacks on these medical workers.

But there's also an increasing attacks that are significant limiting. ability of people to access healthcare in Lebanon. And with the attacks yesterday, I mean, we saw hospitals quickly becoming overwhelmed with people being rushed in as ambulances streamed into them, following the scale of the attacks and the number of injuries with over 1,000 people injured. Ramsey Kais, I want to thank you for being with us. Lebanon Researcher at Human Rights Watch based in Beirut. Please remain safe yourself. This is Democracy Now, Democracy Now.org. Up next, we speak with Professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago. His latest piece headlined, The War is Turning Iran into a Major World Power.

Stay with us. What emerges through the mud in a garden that you sowed with blood. Because now our streets along the flight, it's wartime. I lost a chance to stop the flow So many millions of lives ago And now we'll reap what we don't know It's war time By Farrill Foster, performing at the Brooklyn Folk Festival.

This is Democracy Now, Democracy Now.org, the War and Peace Report. I'm Amy Goodman. The war is turning Iran into a major world power. That's the headline of a new op-ed in the New York Times by our next guest, Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago. Professor Pape writes Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz could help elevate Iran to become a fourth center of global power, along with the United States, China, and Russia. Pape writes, quote, if Iranian control over the straight persists for months or years, as I believe it may, it will drastically reshape the global order to the detriment of the United States, unquote.

Professor Pape joins us now from London. Welcome to Democracy Now, Professor. Can you lay out your argument why you believe the war is turning Iran into a major world power? Yes. Thank you very much for having me. What most people know is that Iran is causing oil shortages through selective blockade using drones and mines. I'm going one step further. I'm discussing the power that that selective blockade gives Iran today in the coming months and in the coming years. It is power because of geography. The choke point at Hormuz is geographically perfectly located to allow Iran to selectively control the shipping through Hormuz, which means it can use that selective control as leverage to gain political power in the Gulf, change the hierarchy, change the balance of power in the Gulf from a balance to a hierarchy where

Iran now is at the top of the hierarchy. And if other states do not accept Iran's power, they lose tremendous gross domestic product. Also in Asia, the power that Iran has to cause the Asian states to distance themselves from the United States is already evident, and that's only going to grow over time because Asia is ground zero for the economic shock effects that Iran can have with its selective blockade. Then on top of that, when you look at the United States, look at how little power the United States has for its basings with its basing structure. in the Persian Gulf. We know the United States has bases in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain,

but look how vulnerable those bases are, how much they've actually had to stand down operations, and our own aircraft carriers are a thousand miles away from the Persian Gulf for fear that they will be hit and sunk. What all this adds up to is growing power of Iran on diminishing power of the United States. And on top of all of that, Amy, over the next months and year, there will be $75, $100 billion of oil revenues going into Iran and so be in Chinese banks that can be used to create, transform that nuclear-enriched material into

working nuclear weapons. And if we can't destroy the drones in those deep caves, what makes us think we're really going to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power in the next six months or a year? You add all that up, and Iran will become a nuclear weapons oil hegemon in the near future. In the coming months, coming years, that means it will be the fourth. center of world power. You're right. It's possible to control the strait without closing it. Explain how that's occurring.

We are watching in real time. Iran is declaring, unless you cooperate with the Iranian military, the Iranian military, will sink your ship as it goes through the Strait of Hormuz. And that threat has been made credible over 40 days of actually doing that. Just a few days ago, a Kuwaiti oil tanker tried to run the strait. And what happened, it was hit. The French, for the first time in this war, about two days ago, the first time that a European tanker got through,

that happened as President Macron announced that France would not participate in any military endeavor. to wrestle the straight of Hormos from Iran and would, in fact, cooperate with Iran. So what you see is cooperation, that is political cowtowing, gets you oil. If you don't do that, you get your ship sunk. And Iran is doing this, has been doing this now for 40 days. So it is a highly credible instrument of power, and Iran is not likely to surrender it. In all my studies, for 35 years, I have never found a state in the last 300 years that has willingly surrendered world power. And that's why the ceasefire is breaking down.

You posted on social media yesterday, quote, power isn't just about what you control. It's about what you can put at risk. In a global economy, risk equals power. Explain. Yeah. So we have, in political science, international relations, we have all our measures of raw power. We look at gross domestic product. We look at military forces.

We look at nuclear weapons. What all of those static indicators are about, Amy, is the ability to, of a state to threaten other states, to do, in other words, to make other states vulnerable. What you are seeing with Iran is that its geography in combination with a level of drone technology that we simply cannot destroy. We can destroy 50% of it, 70% of it, but Iran, thanks to the geography of the straits, only needs a small amount of offensive power, a small number of drones, a small number of mines,

in order to achieve the mission it must achieve to make the countries vulnerable, which is to sink their ships. This is actually quite similar to the Vietnam War, where the Ho Chi Minh Trail, America through air power, was able to cut 80, 90 percent of the throughput, of the Ho Chi Minh Trail, but we could never get the final 10 percent, and that's why the VC won. Professor Pape, your substock page is called the escalation trap. What is that?

The escalation trap is when a strong country, the United States, uses military force, air power that can be tactically successful, bombs hit targets, bombs kill leaders, but it does not produce strategic success. And that looming prospect of defeat for that power that just launched that attack is what drives that state up the escalation ladder to look for a rung that it will find, it will find victory. And that's exactly what you see with Donald Trump. Donald Trump started this war with a essentially three-day air plan. Yes, he had some backups, but he was telling us, This is going to be over in three days. Well, instead of disabling, causing the regime of Iran to collapse, it got stronger.

It is now a more vicious, a stronger regime than before. So he launched the air campaign. Well, the air campaign was supposed to weaken Iran, and we did destroy launchers. But what that did is it allowed Iran to lash back in a horizontal escalation that sees the straight of Hormuz. Now, after 40 days, Iran just doesn't. hasn't just seized the control of the Strait of Hormuz. It's feeling its power, Amy. It is now using its power.

It's learning. This isn't just theoretical power capability. This is real power capability. And you see this with India. India is effectively cooperating with Iran, bowing to Iran. And that's why a number of Indian oil tankers have been able to get through. in the French I just mentioned. And over time, this is going to exert enormous power. Iran will exert enormous power over the states in the Persian Gulf. One of the reasons the Saudis and the

UAE are so desperate, but where are they going to go for protection? Donald Trump's nowhere has proven his protection isn't worth anything. So over time, you will probably see more and more bandwagoning toward Iran, the alternative for those Gulf states, if they don't ban, wagon is Iran will probably topple their governments. I want to get your response to Defense Secretary Hegseth speaking after the ceasefire was announced. Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield, a capital V military victory.

So I want to get your response to that, especially in light of you writing, imagine Iran with control of about 20% of the world's oil, Russia with about 11% and China able to soak up much of that supply, they would form a cartel to deny the West 30% of the world's oil. Professor Pay. Exactly. Well, you're hearing from, well, you're hearing Amy from Secretary Hegsa is a victory narrative, but it's meeting escalation reality. The reality is Iran is far stronger than it was just 40 days ago. It is in control of 20% of the world's oil. It is now an emerging fourth center of power, and the other centers of power are not all competing with each other. The United States is on one side, and the rivals are China, Russia, and now Iran. And even if those

three rivals don't form a NATO-like integrated command structure. They will structurally, just because of the nature of the power balance, they will structurally end up tacitly or explicitly working together. And as you just explained in my op-ed, I lay out a very plausible scenario. With Iran's 20% of the world's oil. Russia has 11%. Why exactly are they not going to work together at some point in the near future to cut that, to deny that 30% of the world's oil to Europe to the west and essentially let China soak up that oil. This will be tremendous leverage. They will wield. And unless we start to recognize that, this may become a reality, because that's 30% of the world's oil is a tremendous amount of pressure. And even America

won't be able to escape the consequences of that. Is there a way out of the escalation trap right now? And can you comment on what's about to take place? You have Vice President Vance, headed from Hungary to Islamabad, to join with Whitkoff and President Trump. Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to negotiate with Iran. Well, there are only two ways to settle this. One on the battlefield, that's the escalation trap, the other at the negotiating table. The problem with the negotiating table is that given Iran surge in power, the price to get Iran to even give up a sliver or half of that power is going up and going up and going up. So the

deals that were on offer on February 27 simply are not going to be enough. Iran already wanted it's 3.5% of rich uranium on February 27. We'll notice now it has more power so it's not going to go back to the old deal. The one card that could be played that would really matter, I believe, get Iran's attention would be a enforceable military containment of Israel. You see, Iran has said very clearly it wants protection, confidence that it won't be attacked in the future by, from both the United States and Israel. Well, you might think the United States has gotten enough of a black eye here. It might back off. Israel is a completely different story as your previous stories were just laying out.

So a true military containment of Israel, possibly even Israel joining the NPT and have a. to accept. If there's on-site inspections in Iran, there'll be on-site inspections of the nuclear facilities, the nuclear and production material production facilities at Damona. Now we're talking, but if that's not politically plausible, if we say that's just not ever going to happen, then how else are you really going to get out of the trap? What would you give Iran to surrender world power? I don't think they're going to take a sucker deal at this point. Robert Pape, we want to thank you so much for being with us. Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago studies how forces used to achieve political objectives. We'll link to your

piece in the New York Times. The war is turning Iran into a major world power. Professor Pape is joining us from London. Up next, what has the Iran War meant for Gulf states that have been on the front lines of the conflict? We'll go to the Gulf to speak with Yasmin, Farooke. Stay with us. I get a bit more new. Dance art of fire. This comes for hire. Dance. Dancing in the dark.

Performed note, not by Bruce Springsteen this time, but by pro-publica workers picketing outside the investigative news outlets, Manhattan offices. The media workers have been fighting for over two years for their first union contract. This is Democracy Now. Democracy Now.org, the war and peace report. I'm Amy Goodman.

We end today's show looking at how the Gulf states are reacting to the U.S. Iran ceasefire. As negotiations are set to take place in Islamabad, Pakistan, Gulf states are expressing growing alarm that Iran will be allowed to maintain or even expand its control over the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, the United Arab Emirates said it's seeking further clarification regarding Iran's commitment to the, quote, complete and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, unquote. UAE officials have also said they want Iran to be held accountable for damages and to pay reparations for attacks on the UAE's energy facilities and infrastructure. During the war, Iran attacked all six Arab Gulf states, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar,

Oman, and the United Arab Emirates. Several attacks were reported on Wednesday even after the ceasefire was announced. We're joined now by Yasmin Faruk. She works at the International Crisis Group, where she serves as project director for the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula. Why don't you take us through the Gulf States and how they each individually have responded and as a group? Good afternoon. Thank you for having me. Well, individually, you've seen mostly by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, but also Kuwait welcoming a statement. that welcome the ceasefire. But we have seen a welcome of the ceasefire that is conditioned on a long-term

solution to their problems and the security threats that Iran represents to them that has shown during this war. And as you just mentioned in your introduction, really singling out the opening of the Strait of Hormuz as being one of the conditions that they are not going to let go in the negotiations or whatever outcome comes from this war. The GCC also, which is the body that represents the six of them, also have welcomed the ceasefire, although the statement was very short, which shows that there isn't really total or identical views on this ceasefire, how it was achieved and on the direction after. Oman, of course, was a country that welcomed the ceasefire, but this is coherent and consistent with its position not only when the war became very intense and we were getting into. to a phase where the war was going to get out of control. But since it began, Oman has kept the distance and it was very consistent to be one of the first countries to welcome

this ceasefire. Now, the countries that stand out are actually the UAE and Bahrain. As you just mentioned, the UAE statement was very detailed. It's a page-long statement and it did not welcome the ceasefire. It said that it is following the ceasefire and it flushed out all the details that it expects from any negotiations that are coming after the ceasefire. During this five-week period, Gulf states have been seeking to diversify security partnerships from European radar systems to anti-drone cooperation with Ukraine, you know, have learned to deal or have increased their expertise in dealing with Russia's drone strikes, which many of those drones came from Iran.

How significant is it that these countries that once saw the U.S. as a security and military guarantor are now seeking alternative options? So first of all, this diversification has started since before. This is not the first time Iran targets those Gulf countries. Let's remember that the biggest attacks that have already pushed the Gulf countries to question how reliable and how satisfactory is the U.S. U.S. defense umbrella happened in 2019 and a couple of years afterwards when, of course, Iran denies its involvement in the 2019 attacks on Saudi Arabia and then on the Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi, in which Iranian technology, of course, has been used. We have to also notice that in this reach out to countries in Asia, but also in Europe, to supply either batteries or

even fighter jets with pilots in order to surveil the air, but also respond and intercept Iranian projectiles, have been done so far within the camp of U.S. allies. We have U.S. systems and British systems and European systems and Israeli systems in the Gulf. And so the Gulf diversification is still largely limited to U.S. allies. And reaching out to Ukraine is really what stands out in here. Of course, the Gulf diversification is still largely limited to U.S. allies. And reaching out to Ukraine is really what stands out in here. Of course, the Gulf countries had higher expectations in terms of military support from their European allies. But I see that the European involvement in this war and in the defense of their partners is already a first step that should be noted and I think will continue. We have read news today also that the Gulf countries are going to use some Chinese drones technology that already exists in Saudi Arabia and the UAE in defense.

So this diversification that had started before will continue. But for the foreseeable future, the U.S. will be the backbone of defense in the GCC countries. And there is existing cooperation with Israel that, of course, also I see continuing. On Tuesday, China and Russia vetoed a Bahrain-sponsored UN resolution that had strong U.S. and Gulf support. Can you talk about the significance of the veto, Yasmin? And what it means for the Gulf states to have their... security determined by countries, again, that are not the United States? So even a country like France and other European countries had issued with the first drafts

of this resolution. Because it opened the door to the use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is something that even the Europeans didn't want to be on board on. The UK, France, that took initiatives to reopen regarding the state of Hormuz were very clear that whatever action that will be taken is going to be taken after the war ends. Now, Bahrain has worked with the Security Council and the UAE dispatched its own Minister of State to the Security Council to also help with that. And the veto at the end only came from Russia and China. I want to say that it was only half a surprise, if you want. China has not been up to the Gulf expectations in this crisis in the sense that there was hope that have been, you know, given the Beijing process

with Iran between Iran and Saudi Arabia and given the Opik Plus agreement with Russia and their position in the war on Ukraine, there were expectations that Russia's, Russia and China's roles in this war are going to be different. So I think that this will also have an impact on the long-term relationship, particularly between a country like the UAE and Russia. As you know, the Abu Dhabi was a main venue for the Neuf. negotiation between the U.S. and Russia, but also Ukraine and Russia. So it was a surprise, but it was only half a surprise given the role of those countries and their ties to Iran, including during this war. We just have 30 seconds, Jasmine Farouk, but if you can just talk about

what's at stake at this moment? Well, first of all, as you said, one, the Strait of Hormuz, we have seen, we have heard and seen actually very concerning. remarks from President Trump saying that cooperation with Iran and Italo Booth is something that is beautiful. This is something that will not be acceptable by the GCC countries. Also, if this worry starts, let's remember the ceasefire came at a moment when energy, infrastructure, desalination, power plants, but nuclear plants could have been in the crossfire. So what is at stake here is an uncontrolled escalation that everyone wants to stop. Yes, mean Farouca, is the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Project Director at the International Crisis Group, speaking to us from the Gulf.

That does it for our show. Juan Gonzalez is speaking today at 1 o'clock at the CUNY grad center in New York. We'll be tonight at the IFC Center for the theatrical release of the new film about Democracy Now. Steal this story, please. It will be going through the weekend. We'll be doing Q&As with the directors throughout next week. I'm Amy Goodman. This is another edition of Democracy Now. DemocracyNow. DemocracyNow.org.